Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 24, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Buffalo def. Western Mich. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Western Mich. 86.3% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 24, 1:10 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Buffalo won at Western Mich. 3-2 (28-26, 13-25, 25-18, 13-25, 15-12) on Sat, Oct 24, 2026. Buffalo's Hailey Campagna and Sydney Bell led with 15 kills each, and Maddie Mitchell added 16 digs.

Data through · final Oct 24

Set12345Sets
BUFF28132513153
W MICH26251825122

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Sydney Bell hit .353 on 34 swings as Buffalo edged Western Mich.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Buffalo's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ had Western Mich. at 86% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Buffalo 7–13 Western Mich.

    From here Buffalo won 21 of 34 rallies to take the set 28–26.

    Buffalo 8% → 31%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Buffalo 8–5 Western Mich.

    Down 5–8, Western Mich. scored 3 straight to tie it at 8. The match swung to Western Mich.

    Buffalo 68% → 39%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Buffalo 12–11 Western Mich.

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Buffalo, enough to take the set 15–12 and win the match 3–2.

    Buffalo 55% → >99%

Western Mich. above 50Buffalo belowMax swing 21.0%

BuffaloWestern Mich.

Sideout %
Buffalo 56.6·Western Mich. 63.8
Break %
Buffalo 36.2·Western Mich. 43.4
Hitting
Buffalo .225·Western Mich. .318
Longest run
Buffalo 6·Western Mich. 6

Sydney Bell
4 kills inside the turning points, 15 K and .353 for the match (16 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Western Mich. above 50 · Buffalo below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+21.0% BUFFrally 200 · set 5

Biggest swing: 21.0% to Buffalo — set 5, BUFF 13-11 W MICH. Ace by Manoela Forlin on Elana Erickson. W MICH win probability 45% → 24%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BUFF 17.1%82.9% W MICH

Buffalo wins

3-0
2.6%
3-1
5.6%
3-2
8.9%

Western Mich. wins

3-0
34.6%
3-1
30.9%
3-2
17.4%
BUFF break %
37.1% vs this opp
W MICH break %
44.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Ace by Manoela Forlin on Elana Erickson

    Set 5 · BUFF 13-11 W MICH · BUFF 55% → 76%

  2. 02
    Sydney BellKill+16.7%

    Kill by Sydney Bell (set by Sadie Gladhill)

    Set 5 · BUFF 11-10 W MICH · BUFF 36% → 52%

  3. 03
    Sydney BellKill+16.7%

    Kill by Sydney Bell (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 5 · BUFF 14-11 W MICH · BUFF 76% → 93%

  4. 04
    Sydney BellKill+13.5%

    Kill by Sydney Bell (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 5 · BUFF 12-11 W MICH · BUFF 42% → 55%

  5. 05
    Michal BenaimAttack error+13.0%

    Attack error by Michal Benaim

    Set 5 · BUFF 9-10 W MICH · W MICH 60% → 74%

  6. 06
    Manoela ForlinKill+12.4%

    Kill by Manoela Forlin

    Set 5 · BUFF 8-5 W MICH · BUFF 56% → 68%

  7. 07
    Abisola AdebayoAttack error+12.1%

    Attack error by Abisola Adebayo

    Set 5 · BUFF 8-8 W MICH · W MICH 49% → 61%

  8. 08
    Leah RichmondKill+11.3%

    Kill by Leah Richmond

    Set 5 · BUFF 8-7 W MICH · W MICH 38% → 49%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5151052.09610310010116
515334.3530004002116
511636.139121153111.514.5
57113.462000100218
54210.20000010010.54.5
5001.00034131600001
59118.444000000009
5011-1.0001824700002
5000–223800002
5000–100320000
3000–001000000
2104.250000510001
1000–000000000
Team totals6224169.2255771570626594
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514127.4810000012216
514441.24411212000015
510227.2960130004213
58011.727401120004211
57320.2004221640009
46217.23511240010.57.5
5000–5021100000
5000–200500000
2218.12500000010.52.5
1000–000000000
Team totals6113151.318536126871127106

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Buffalo vs Western Mich.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 BUFF · W MICH 6

Set 1

28-26

Longest run 5 BUFFW MICH 5

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 3 BUFFW MICH 6

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 6 BUFFW MICH 3

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 2 BUFFW MICH 5

Set 5

15-12

Longest run 3 BUFFW MICH 3

Bars above the line = Western Mich. leads, below = Buffalo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Buffalo

SlotSideout %Break %
1
68%13/19
21%3/14
2
50%11/22
39%7/18
3
67%10/15
33%5/15
4
77%10/13
29%4/14
5
42%8/19
44%8/18
6
44%8/18
47%7/15
All
57%60/106
36%34/94

Western Mich.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
47%9/19
2
65%11/17
42%8/19
3
67%10/15
45%9/20
4
63%10/16
23%3/13
5
56%10/18
38%6/16
6
73%8/11
58%11/19
All
64%60/94
43%46/106

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

200 rallies

#BUFF-W MICHSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0W MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.1
21-1BUFFW MICH×5Serve errBuffalo+1.0
31-2W MICHW MICH×5KillGabby Weihe+1.3
41-3W MICHW MICH×5BlockedSydney Bellblk Gabby Weihe+1.2
51-4W MICHW MICH×5Attack errHailey Campagna+1.0
61-5W MICHW MICH×5Attack errAva Kanj+0.9
72-5W MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
82-6BUFFW MICHServe errBuffalo+0.6
92-7W MICHW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+0.7
103-7W MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.5
114-7BUFFBUFFAttack errAnnalise Patchett+0.8
124-8BUFFW MICHAttack errSydney Bell+0.6
135-8W MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
145-9BUFFW MICHServe errBuffalo+0.6
155-10W MICHW MICHKillElana Ericksonset Carley Piercefield+0.8
166-10W MICHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Hailey Campagna+0.5
176-11BUFFW MICHBlockedHailey Campagnablk Izzy Swiercz, Cassidy Pratley+0.5
186-12W MICHW MICHKillLeah Richmondset Izzy Swiercz+0.6
197-12W MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+0.3
207-13BUFFW MICHServe errBuffalo+0.4
218-13W MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Sadie Gladhill+0.3
229-13BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
239-14BUFFW MICHServe errBuffalo+0.5
2410-14W MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.5
2511-14BUFFBUFFAttack errIzzy Swiercz+0.9
2611-15BUFFW MICHAttack errHailey Campagna+0.7
2712-15W MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.7
2812-16BUFFW MICHAttack errHailey Campagna+0.8
2913-16W MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.7
3013-17BUFFW MICHKillElana Ericksonset Leah Richmond+0.8
3114-17W MICHBUFF×5KillAbbie Willisset Michal Benaim+0.7
3215-17BUFFBUFF×5BlockedIzzy Swierczblk Hailey Campagna+1.4
3316-17BUFFBUFF×5AceBuffaloaced Elana Erickson+1.9
3417-17BUFFBUFF×5KillAbbie Willis+2.5
3518-17BUFFBUFF×5KillAbisola Adebayoset Manoela Forlin+3.1
3618-18BUFFW MICHKillCassidy Pratleyset Leah Richmond+2.0
3719-18W MICHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Michal Benaim+2.4
3819-19BUFFW MICHServe errBuffalo+2.1
3920-19W MICHBUFFAttack errCassidy Pratley+2.6
4020-20BUFFW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+2.3
4121-20W MICHBUFFAttack errAnnalise Patchett+2.9
4221-21BUFFW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+2.6
4322-21W MICHBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+3.3
4422-22BUFFW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+2.9
4523-22W MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+3.9
4623-23BUFFW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+3.5
4723-24W MICHW MICHAttack errManoela Forlin+6.0
4824-24W MICHBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+4.0
4924-25BUFFW MICHAttack errManoela Forlin+4.0
5025-25W MICHBUFFServe errWestern Mich.+4.0
5126-25BUFFBUFFAceBuffaloaced Elana Erickson+6.9
5226-26BUFFW MICHAttack errHailey Campagna+4.9
5327-26W MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+4.9
5428-26BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+8.5
Set 2
10-1BUFFW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+1.6
21-1W MICHBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+1.7
31-2BUFFW MICH×6KillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+1.6
41-3W MICHW MICH×6Attack errManoela Forlin+2.2
51-4W MICHW MICH×6KillMia Jurkovicset Carley Piercefield+1.9
61-5W MICHW MICH×6KillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+1.6
71-6W MICHW MICH×6KillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+1.3
81-7W MICHW MICH×6KillGabby Weiheset Annalise Patchett+1.0
92-7W MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
102-8BUFFW MICHKillMia Jurkovicset Leah Richmond+0.7
113-8W MICHBUFFServe errWestern Mich.+0.6
123-9BUFFW MICH×3KillElana Ericksonset Leah Richmond+0.7
133-10W MICHW MICH×3KillLeah Richmondset Carley Piercefield+0.7
143-11W MICHW MICH×3KillCassidy Pratleyset Leah Richmond+0.5
154-11W MICHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Michal Benaim+0.3
165-11BUFFBUFFAttack errCassidy Pratley+0.6
175-12BUFFW MICHKillElana Ericksonset Leah Richmond+0.5
185-13W MICHW MICHKillLeah Richmondset Elana Erickson+0.5
196-13W MICHBUFF×3KillAbbie Willisset Michal Benaim+0.2
207-13BUFFBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.5
218-13BUFFBUFF×3AceBuffaloaced Elana Erickson+0.8
228-14BUFFW MICH×3KillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+0.7
238-15W MICHW MICH×3KillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+0.7
248-16W MICHW MICH×3BlockedHailey Campagnablk Leah Richmond, Gabby Weihe+0.4
259-16W MICHBUFFServe errWestern Mich.+0.2
269-17BUFFW MICHKillLeah Richmondset Elana Erickson+0.3
279-18W MICHW MICHKillGabby Weihe+0.2
2810-18W MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.1
2910-19BUFFW MICHServe errBuffalo+0.1
3011-19W MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.1
3111-20BUFFW MICHServe errBuffalo+0.1
3212-20W MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell·
3312-21BUFFW MICHServe errBuffalo+0.1
3412-22W MICHW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Carley Piercefield·
3513-22W MICHBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Michal Benaim·
3613-23BUFFW MICH×3KillCassidy Pratleyset Leah Richmond·
3713-24W MICHW MICH×3KillCassidy Pratley·
3813-25W MICHW MICH×3KillCassidy Pratleyset Leah Richmond·
Set 3
11-0W MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.8
21-1BUFFW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+1.6
32-1W MICHBUFF×3Attack errAnnalise Patchett+1.8
43-1BUFFBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.9
54-1BUFFBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+3.1
64-2BUFFW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Ava Kanj+1.9
75-2W MICHBUFFServe errWestern Mich.+2.3
85-3BUFFW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+1.9
96-3W MICHBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+2.3
106-4BUFFW MICHBlockedAbbie Willisblk Cassidy Pratley, Mia Jurkovic+1.9
116-5W MICHW MICHKillCassidy Pratleyset Leah Richmond+2.9
127-5W MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+2.3
137-6BUFFW MICHKillElana Ericksonset Leah Richmond+2.0
147-7W MICHW MICHBlockedHailey Campagnablk Cassidy Pratley, Leah Richmond+2.9
158-7W MICHBUFFServe errWestern Mich.+2.2
168-8BUFFW MICH×3KillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+2.0
178-9W MICHW MICH×3Attack errAva Kanj+2.8
188-10W MICHW MICH×3AceWestern Mich.aced Manoela Forlin+2.5
199-10W MICHBUFFServe errWestern Mich.+1.8
209-11BUFFW MICHServe errBuffalo+1.8
2110-11W MICHBUFFAttack errMia Jurkovic+1.8
2210-12BUFFW MICHAttack errSydney Bell+1.8
2310-13W MICHW MICHKillElana Ericksonset Carley Piercefield+2.3
2411-13W MICHBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.5
2512-13BUFFBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.8
2613-13BUFFBUFF×3BlockedElana Ericksonblk Sydney Bell, Abisola Adebayo+3.5
2713-14BUFFW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+2.3
2814-14W MICHBUFF×6KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+2.6
2915-14BUFFBUFF×6AceBuffalo+4.3
3016-14BUFFBUFF×6KillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+4.7
3117-14BUFFBUFF×6KillAbbie Willisset Michal Benaim+4.9
3218-14BUFFBUFF×6KillAbbie Willisset Michal Benaim+4.5
3319-14BUFFBUFF×6BlockedElana Ericksonblk Manoela Forlin+3.8
3419-15BUFFW MICHServe errBuffalo+1.6
3520-15W MICHBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Michal Benaim+2.6
3621-15BUFFBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+2.5
3721-16BUFFW MICHKillLeah Richmondset Elana Erickson+0.8
3821-17W MICHW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Riley Messenger+1.9
3922-17W MICHBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Michal Benaim+2.3
4022-18BUFFW MICHKillCassidy Pratleyset Leah Richmond+1.0
4123-18W MICHBUFF×3Serve errWestern Mich.+2.1
4224-18BUFFBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.2
4325-18BUFFBUFF×3AceBuffalo+0.3
Set 4
10-1BUFFW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Elana Erickson+2.4
20-2W MICHW MICHAttack errManoela Forlin+3.3
31-2W MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+2.3
42-2BUFFBUFFBlockedGabby Weiheblk Ava Kanj, Manoela Forlin+3.9
52-3BUFFW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+2.6
62-4W MICHW MICHAceWestern Mich.aced Anaya Cole+3.5
73-4W MICHBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+2.5
83-5BUFFW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+2.4
94-5W MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Anaya Cole+2.5
104-6BUFFW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+2.5
115-6W MICHBUFFServe errWestern Mich.+2.6
125-7BUFFW MICH×4Serve errBuffalo+2.5
135-8W MICHW MICH×4KillLeah Richmondset Carley Piercefield+3.3
145-9W MICHW MICH×4Attack errHailey Campagna+2.7
155-10W MICHW MICH×4AceWestern Mich.aced Manoela Forlin+2.1
166-10W MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+1.3
176-11BUFFW MICH×5KillElana Ericksonset Leah Richmond+1.4
186-12W MICHW MICH×5AceWestern Mich.aced Manoela Forlin+1.6
196-13W MICHW MICH×5KillCassidy Pratleyset Leah Richmond+1.1
206-14W MICHW MICH×5Attack errHailey Campagna+0.7
216-15W MICHW MICH×5AceWestern Mich.aced Angelina Siepierski+0.4
227-15W MICHBUFFKillAva Kanjset Michal Benaim+0.2
237-16BUFFW MICH×3KillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+0.3
247-17W MICHW MICH×3KillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+0.2
257-18W MICHW MICH×3KillLeah Richmondset Riley Messenger+0.1
268-18W MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell·
278-19BUFFW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+0.1
289-19W MICHBUFFServe errWestern Mich.·
299-20BUFFW MICH×4KillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond·
309-21W MICHW MICH×4KillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond·
319-22W MICHW MICH×4KillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond·
329-23W MICHW MICH×4AceWestern Mich.aced Anaya Cole·
3310-23W MICHBUFFServe errWestern Mich.·
3411-23BUFFBUFFAceBuffalo·
3511-24BUFFW MICHServe errBuffalo·
3612-24W MICHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Michal Benaim·
3713-24BUFFBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Michal Benaim·
3813-25BUFFW MICHKillCassidy Pratleyset Leah Richmond+1.3
Set 5
11-0BUFFBUFFAttack errAnnalise Patchett+8.6
21-1BUFFW MICHKillCassidy Pratleyset Leah Richmond+5.5
32-1W MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+6.4
42-2BUFFW MICHBlockedHailey Campagnablk Gabby Weihe, Leah Richmond+5.7
52-3W MICHW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+8.2
63-3W MICHBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+5.9
74-3BUFFBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+9.9
85-3BUFFBUFF×3KillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+10.9
95-4BUFFW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+6.5
106-4W MICHBUFFBlockedElana Ericksonblk Sydney Bell, Abisola Adebayo+8.2
116-5BUFFW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+6.8
127-5W MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+8.6
138-5BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlin+12.4
148-6BUFFW MICH×3Serve errBuffalo+6.5
158-7W MICHW MICH×3KillLeah Richmond+11.3
168-8W MICHW MICH×3Attack errAbisola Adebayo+12.1
179-8W MICHBUFFServe errIzzy Swiercz+9.7
189-9BUFFW MICHServe errBuffalo+8.7
199-10W MICHW MICHAttack errMichal Benaim+13.0
2010-10W MICHBUFFServe errElana Erickson+9.2
2111-10BUFFBUFFKillSydney Bellset Sadie Gladhill+16.7
2211-11BUFFW MICHBlockedManoela Forlinblk Cassidy Pratley, Leah Richmond+10.6
2312-11W MICHBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+13.5
2413-11BUFFBUFF×3AceManoela Forlinaced Elana Erickson+21.0
2514-11BUFFBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+16.7
2614-12BUFFW MICHAttack errManoela Forlin+4.0
2715-12W MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+11.1

Score shown after each rally, Buffalo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).