Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on ESPN+, Chippewas All-Access

Buffalo def. Central Mich. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Buffalo 91.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 5:25 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Buffalo won at Central Mich. 3-1 (25-18, 25-22, 21-25, 25-21) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Buffalo's Hailey Campagna led with 20 kills, and Maddie Mitchell added 16 digs.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set1234Sets
BUFF252521253
C MICH182225211

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Buffalo held Central Mich. to .117 hitting.

No single rally moved win probability more than 1.9 points. Central Mich. peaked at 10% in Set 1. These are the numbers behind it. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Buffalo at 92%.

BuffaloCentral Mich.
  • Hitting+.149
    .266.117

    Kills and errors: 61–20 vs 42–25.

  • Longest run+0
    55

    Buffalo scored 5 straight in the fourth set to stretch a 6–5 lead to 11–5. Final score of the set: 25–21.

Central Mich. above 50Buffalo belowMax swing 1.9%

BuffaloCentral Mich.

Aces
Buffalo 3·Central Mich. 9
Serve err
Buffalo 14·Central Mich. 4
Blocks
Buffalo 7.5·Central Mich. 80 BS · 15 BA vs 2 BS · 12 BA
Digs
Buffalo 70·Central Mich. 64

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Central Mich. above 50 · Buffalo below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+1.9% C MICHrally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 1.9% to Central Mich. — set 4, BUFF 16-15 C MICH. Attack error by Hailey Campagna. C MICH win probability 4% → 6%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BUFF 91.5%8.5% C MICH

Buffalo wins

3-0
47.1%
3-1
31.4%
3-2
13.0%

Central Mich. wins

3-0
1.1%
3-1
2.5%
3-2
4.9%
BUFF break %
48.2% vs this opp
C MICH break %
37.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Hailey CampagnaAttack error+1.9%

    Attack error by Hailey Campagna

    Set 4 · BUFF 16-15 C MICH · C MICH 4% → 6%

  2. 02
    Taylor CripeKill+1.8%

    Kill by Taylor Cripe (set by Rainey Weidman)

    Set 2 · BUFF 21-21 C MICH · C MICH 4% → 6%

  3. 03

    Ace by Manoela Forlin

    Set 2 · BUFF 23-21 C MICH · BUFF 96% → 97%

  4. 04
    Cheyenne GunnerAttack error+1.6%

    Attack error by Cheyenne Gunner

    Set 4 · BUFF 18-15 C MICH · BUFF 96% → 97%

  5. 05
    Central Mich.Ace+1.6%

    Central Mich. ace on Abisola Adebayo

    Set 1 · BUFF 14-14 C MICH · C MICH 8% → 10%

  6. 06
    Taylor CripeAce+1.5%

    Ace by Taylor Cripe

    Set 4 · BUFF 1-2 C MICH · C MICH 6% → 7%

  7. 07
    Taylor CripeAttack error+1.5%

    Attack error by Taylor Cripe

    Set 4 · BUFF 17-15 C MICH · BUFF 94% → 96%

  8. 08

    Kill by Manoela Forlin (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 2 · BUFF 22-21 C MICH · BUFF 94% → 96%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420538.39510193010.520.5
412636.1671118002114
413732.18810020010.513.5
46013.462001410428
45112.33300030031.56.5
4106.16736031600001
4001.000000300000
4000–1031500000
32113.077100110424
3000–903300000
2203.667000020002
2000–011200001
2000–011400001
Team totals6120154.266503147090157.596
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4141060.06701011012217
411421.33301210132.514.5
49328.2140002002110
44212.16700000031.55.5
4118.0003521700214
4000–220900002
43516-.125000300003
4000–3202110002
4000–0111010001
Team totals4225145.1174094643212886

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Buffalo vs Central Mich.

Season series · Buffalo leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 BUFF · C MICH 5

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 3 BUFFC MICH 4

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 3 BUFFC MICH 4

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 BUFFC MICH 5

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 5 BUFFC MICH 4

Bars above the line = Central Mich. leads, below = Buffalo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Buffalo

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%11/15
40%6/15
2
64%9/14
47%8/17
3
57%8/14
25%3/12
4
62%8/13
64%14/22
5
47%8/17
27%3/11
6
57%8/14
56%10/18
All
60%52/87
46%44/95

Central Mich.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%10/20
44%8/18
2
69%9/13
38%6/16
3
44%8/18
33%4/12
4
53%8/15
27%3/11
5
62%8/13
62%13/21
6
50%8/16
11%1/9
All
54%51/95
40%35/87

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#BUFF-C MICHSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1C MICHC MICHKillLilly Mullholandset Audrey Hackney+1.1
21-1C MICHBUFF×3Attack errCheyenne Gunner+0.7
32-1BUFFBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Manoela Forlin+0.9
43-1BUFFBUFF×3Bad setAudrey Hackney+0.8
53-2BUFFC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Audrey Hackney+0.6
64-2C MICHBUFFAttack errCheyenne Gunner+0.6
75-2BUFFBUFFAttack errBrenna Storz+0.7
85-3BUFFC MICHAttack errSydney Bell+0.5
95-4C MICHC MICHKillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney+0.9
106-4C MICHBUFFAttack errCheyenne Gunner+0.6
117-4BUFFBUFFAttack errTaylor Cripe+0.8
127-5BUFFC MICHServe errBuffalo+0.6
138-5C MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+0.6
149-5BUFFBUFFBlockedTaylor Cripeblk Abbie Willis, Abisola Adebayo, Manoela Forlin+0.6
159-6BUFFC MICH×4KillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney+0.4
169-7C MICHC MICH×4AceCentral Mich.aced Hailey Campagna+0.8
179-8C MICHC MICH×4Attack errManoela Forlin+1.0
189-9C MICHC MICH×4KillMeisha Sykes+1.2
1910-9C MICHBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Michal Benaim+0.9
2011-9BUFFBUFFAttack errMeisha Sykes+1.1
2111-10BUFFC MICHServe errBuffalo+0.8
2212-10C MICHBUFFAttack errLilly Mullholand+0.8
2312-11BUFFC MICHServe errBuffalo+0.9
2413-11C MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.8
2513-12BUFFC MICHKillLilly Mullholandset Audrey Hackney+0.9
2614-12C MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.9
2714-13BUFFC MICHKillLilly Mullholandset Audrey Hackney+0.9
2814-14C MICHC MICHAceCentral Mich.aced Abisola Adebayo+1.6
2915-14C MICHBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.1
3016-14BUFFBUFF×3KillAbisola Adebayo+1.4
3117-14BUFFBUFF×3Attack errTaylor Cripe+1.1
3217-15BUFFC MICHServe errBuffalo+0.8
3318-15C MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+0.8
3418-16BUFFC MICHKillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney+0.8
3519-16C MICHBUFF×3KillAbbie Willisset Michal Benaim+0.9
3620-16BUFFBUFF×3BlockedTaylor Cripeblk Ava Kanj, Abbie Willis+0.9
3721-16BUFFBUFF×3Attack errMeisha Sykes+0.5
3821-17BUFFC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Audrey Hackney+0.2
3922-17C MICHBUFFAttack errTaylor Cripe+0.3
4023-17BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.2
4123-18BUFFC MICHKillMeisha Sykesset Ceci Bustamante+0.1
4224-18C MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.1
4325-18BUFFBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Sydney Bell·
Set 2
11-0BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
22-0BUFFBUFFKillSydney Bellset Sadie Gladhill+0.5
32-1BUFFC MICHBlockedSydney Bellblk Taylor Cripe, Meisha Sykes+0.4
42-2C MICHC MICHAttack errSydney Bell+0.6
53-2C MICHBUFFKillAva Kanjset Audrey Hackney+0.4
64-2BUFFBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
74-3BUFFC MICHServe errBuffalo+0.4
85-3C MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.4
96-3BUFFBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+0.5
106-4BUFFC MICHKillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney+0.4
117-4C MICHBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Abbie Willis+0.4
128-4BUFFBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Audrey Hackney+0.4
138-5BUFFC MICH×4Serve errBuffalo+0.3
148-6C MICHC MICH×4Attack errManoela Forlin+0.5
158-7C MICHC MICH×4AceCentral Mich.aced Hailey Campagna+0.6
168-8C MICHC MICH×4KillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney+0.8
179-8C MICHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Michal Benaim+0.6
1810-8BUFFBUFFAttack errTaylor Cripe+0.7
1910-9BUFFC MICHBlockedAbbie Willisblk Taylor Cripe+0.5
2011-9C MICHBUFFServe errCentral Mich.+0.5
2112-9BUFFBUFFAttack errAudrey Hackney+0.6
2212-10BUFFC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Audrey Hackney+0.4
2313-10C MICHBUFFServe errCentral Mich.+0.4
2413-11BUFFC MICHKillLilly Mullholandset Audrey Hackney+0.4
2514-11C MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.5
2614-12BUFFC MICHServe errBuffalo+0.5
2714-13C MICHC MICHAceCentral Mich.+0.8
2815-13C MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
2915-14BUFFC MICHKillCheyenne Gunnerset Audrey Hackney+0.6
3015-15C MICHC MICHKillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney+1.1
3116-15C MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Michal Benaim+0.8
3216-16BUFFC MICHKillCheyenne Gunnerset Audrey Hackney+0.9
3317-16C MICHBUFFBlockedTaylor Cripeblk Abisola Adebayo, Abbie Willis+0.9
3418-16BUFFBUFFAttack errBrenna Storz+1.0
3518-17BUFFC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Rainey Weidman+0.7
3618-18C MICHC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Ceci Bustamante+1.3
3719-18C MICHBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Hailey Campagna+1.0
3820-18BUFFBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.2
3921-18BUFFBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.9
4021-19BUFFC MICH×3BlockedHailey Campagnablk Taylor Cripe, Meisha Sykes+0.5
4121-20C MICHC MICH×3KillLilly Mullholandset Audrey Hackney+1.1
4221-21C MICHC MICH×3KillTaylor Cripeset Rainey Weidman+1.8
4322-21C MICHBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.4
4423-21BUFFBUFF×3AceManoela Forlin+1.7
4524-21BUFFBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Sadie Gladhill+1.0
4624-22BUFFC MICHServe errManoela Forlin+0.3
4725-22C MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.6
Set 3
11-0C MICHBUFF×3KillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+0.2
22-0BUFFBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.2
33-0BUFFBUFF×3Attack errLilly Mullholand+0.2
43-1BUFFC MICH×4Serve errBuffalo+0.2
53-2C MICHC MICH×4BlockedManoela Forlinblk Lilly Mullholand, Meisha Sykes+0.3
63-3C MICHC MICH×4Attack errSydney Bell+0.3
73-4C MICHC MICH×4Attack errSydney Bell+0.4
84-4C MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.3
94-5BUFFC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Audrey Hackney+0.3
105-5C MICHBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.3
116-5BUFFBUFF×3Bad setAudrey Hackney+0.3
127-5BUFFBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Sadie Gladhill+0.3
137-6BUFFC MICHKillLilly Mullholandset Audrey Hackney+0.2
148-6C MICHBUFFAttack errBrenna Storz+0.2
158-7BUFFC MICH×5Serve errBuffalo+0.2
168-8C MICHC MICH×5AceCentral Mich.aced Abbie Willis+0.4
178-9C MICHC MICH×5Attack errManoela Forlin+0.5
188-10C MICHC MICH×5BlockedHailey Campagnablk Brenna Storz, Audrey Hackney+0.5
198-11C MICHC MICH×5KillTaylor Cripeset Audrey Hackney+0.6
209-11C MICHBUFFBlockedTaylor Cripeblk Abisola Adebayo, Abbie Willis+0.3
219-12BUFFC MICHKillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney+0.4
2210-12C MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+0.4
2310-13BUFFC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Audrey Hackney+0.5
2410-14C MICHC MICHKillLilly Mullholandset Rainey Weidman+0.6
2511-14C MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+0.3
2611-15BUFFC MICHAttack errAva Kanj+0.5
2711-16C MICHC MICHAttack errManoela Forlin+0.6
2812-16C MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.3
2912-17BUFFC MICHKillMeisha Sykesset Audrey Hackney+0.5
3012-18C MICHC MICHAceCentral Mich.aced Hailey Campagna+0.5
3113-18C MICHBUFF×4KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.2
3214-18BUFFBUFF×4KillAbisola Adebayo+0.4
3315-18BUFFBUFF×4Attack errCheyenne Gunner+0.5
3416-18BUFFBUFF×4BlockedLilly Mullholandblk Abisola Adebayo, Manoela Forlin+0.6
3516-19BUFFC MICHKillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney+0.6
3617-19C MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.4
3717-20BUFFC MICHKillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney+0.7
3817-21C MICHC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Audrey Hackney+0.8
3918-21C MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.3
4018-22BUFFC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Audrey Hackney+0.6
4119-22C MICHBUFFServe errCentral Mich.+0.3
4219-23BUFFC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Audrey Hackney+0.6
4320-23C MICHBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+0.2
4420-24BUFFC MICHKillLilly Mullholandset Audrey Hackney+0.5
4521-24C MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.1
4621-25BUFFC MICHKillAudrey Hackneyset Rainey Weidman+0.4
Set 4
11-0BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.2
21-1BUFFC MICHKillMeisha Sykesset Audrey Hackney+1.0
31-2C MICHC MICHAceTaylor Cripe+1.5
42-2C MICHBUFF×3KillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+1.0
53-2BUFFBUFF×3AceChloe Brownaced Rainey Weidman+1.3
64-2BUFFBUFF×3KillAbisola Adebayo+1.2
74-3BUFFC MICHServe errChloe Brown+0.9
85-3C MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.9
96-3BUFFBUFFKillMaddie Mitchell+1.0
106-4BUFFC MICHKillLilly Mullholandset Audrey Hackney+0.8
116-5C MICHC MICHBlockedHailey Campagnablk Brenna Storz, Audrey Hackney+1.3
127-5C MICHBUFF×5Serve errAddison Samolinski+0.9
138-5BUFFBUFF×5KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.1
149-5BUFFBUFF×5KillHailey Campagnaset Audrey Hackney+0.9
1510-5BUFFBUFF×5KillAva Kanj+0.7
1611-5BUFFBUFF×5AceEve Adamsaced Addison Samolinski+0.5
1711-6BUFFC MICH×3KillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney+0.3
1811-7C MICHC MICH×3BlockedHailey Campagnablk Brenna Storz+0.6
1911-8C MICHC MICH×3KillTaylor Cripeset Audrey Hackney+0.9
2012-8C MICHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.7
2112-9BUFFC MICHServe errMaddie Mitchell+0.7
2213-9C MICHBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+0.7
2313-10BUFFC MICHAttack errAudrey Hackney+0.7
2413-11C MICHC MICHAceAudrey Hackneyaced Angelina Siepierski+1.2
2514-11C MICHBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+1.0
2614-12BUFFC MICHServe errSadie Gladhill+1.0
2715-12C MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.0
2815-13BUFFC MICHKillCheyenne Gunnerset Audrey Hackney+1.0
2916-13C MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.1
3016-14BUFFC MICHBlockedManoela Forlinblk Lilly Mullholand, Brenna Storz+1.0
3116-15C MICHC MICHAttack errHailey Campagna+1.9
3217-15C MICHBUFFAttack errTaylor Cripe+1.5
3318-15BUFFBUFFAttack errCheyenne Gunner+1.6
3418-16BUFFC MICHServe errEve Adams+1.1
3519-16C MICHBUFFBlockedBrenna Storzblk Hailey Campagna, Ava Kanj+1.2
3619-17BUFFC MICHKillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney+1.1
3720-17C MICHBUFF×5KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
3821-17BUFFBUFF×5Bad setAudrey Hackney+1.2
3922-17BUFFBUFF×5KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.7
4023-17BUFFBUFF×5KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+0.3
4124-17BUFFBUFF×5Attack errTaylor Cripe+0.1
4224-18BUFFC MICH×4KillTaylor Cripeset Audrey Hackney·
4324-19C MICHC MICH×4Attack errSydney Bell·
4424-20C MICHC MICH×4AceAudrey Hackneyaced Angelina Siepierski+0.1
4524-21C MICHC MICH×4Attack errSydney Bell+0.3
4625-21C MICHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+0.5

Score shown after each rally, Buffalo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).