Ball State vs Buffalo Volleyball: Ball State Wins 3-0

FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026ESPN+

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Ball St. 85.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 7, 2:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Ball St. won at Buffalo 3-0 (25-17, 25-20, 25-20) on Sat, Nov 7, 2026. Ball St.'s Audrey Geer led with 13 kills.

Data through Nov 10, 6:20 PM CT · final Nov 7

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BALLST	25	25	25	3
BUFF	17	20	20	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

No set was closer than 5 points: Ball St. swept Buffalo.

The biggest single-rally swing was 1.6 points, and Buffalo's high was 15% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. RallyIQ gave Ball St. 85% before first serve.

Ball St.Buffalo

Break %+16.4 pts
45.228.8
On serve: 33/73 against 17/59 (Buffalo sideout 54.8%).
Hitting+.101
.325.224
48 kills, 11 errors vs 37 kills, 13 errors.

Buffalo above 50Ball St. belowMax swing 1.6%

Ball St.Buffalo

Aces: Ball St. 5·Buffalo 3
Serve err: Ball St. 6·Buffalo 7
Blocks: Ball St. 5·Buffalo 35 BS · 0 BA vs 3 BS · 0 BA
Digs: Ball St. 54·Buffalo 45

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Buffalo above 50 · Ball St. below

Biggest swing: 1.6% to Buffalo — set 1, BALLST 5-5 BUFF. Kill by Sydney Bell. BUFF win probability 13% → 15%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BALLST 86.4%13.6% BUFF

Ball St. wins

3-0

38.9%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

16.0%

Buffalo wins

3-0

2.0%

3-1

4.3%

3-2

7.3%

BALLST break %: 45.1% vs this opp
BUFF break %: 36.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Sydney BellKill+1.6%
Kill by Sydney Bell
Set 1 · BALLST 5-5 BUFF · BUFF 13% → 15%
02
Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+1.4%
Point Buffalo (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · BALLST 16-14 BUFF · BUFF 10% → 12%
03
Ava SmithKill+1.4%
Kill by Ava Smith (set by Lucy McCollum)
Set 1 · BALLST 7-5 BUFF · BALLST 86% → 88%
04
Audrey GeerKill+1.3%
Kill by Audrey Geer (set by Lindsey Green)
Set 1 · BALLST 10-7 BUFF · BALLST 87% → 89%
05
Sydney BellKill+1.3%
Kill by Sydney Bell (set by Maddie Mitchell)
Set 1 · BALLST 4-3 BUFF · BUFF 12% → 13%
06
Audrey GeerKill+1.3%
Kill by Audrey Geer (set by Lucy McCollum)
Set 1 · BALLST 18-14 BUFF · BALLST 89% → 91%
07
Manoela ForlinKill+1.2%
Kill by Manoela Forlin (set by Maddie Mitchell)
Set 2 · BALLST 8-8 BUFF · BUFF 7% → 8%
08
Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+1.2%
Point Ball St. (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · BALLST 2-0 BUFF · BALLST 86% → 88%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Ball St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
1Audrey GeerOH	3	13	4	27	.333	3	1	1	14	2	0	0	14
14Ava SmithOH	3	11	3	30	.267	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	12
17Camryn WiseMB	3	10	1	22	.409	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	11
11Tiffany SnookMB	3	6	1	13	.385	0	2	1	1	0	2	2	10
9Mallory PikeOH	3	5	1	11	.364	0	0	1	11	0	0	0	5
8Lindsey GreenS	3	0	0	0	–	26	1	0	9	0	0	0	1
13Gwen CrullMB	3	3	1	9	.222	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	4
7Lucy McCollumS	3	0	0	0	–	14	0	2	4	0	0	0	0
12Sophie LedbetterDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	12	1	0	0	0
3Elizabeth TabelingDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Merritt SliwaOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	11	114	.325	47	5	6	54	3	5	5	75

Buffalohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
4Hailey CampagnaOH	3	12	4	28	.286	0	2	1	8	1	0	0	14
14Manoela ForlinOH	3	9	3	31	.194	3	1	0	12	0	0	0	10
20Abisola AdebayoMB	3	2	2	10	.000	0	0	1	1	0	2	2	4
2Maddie MitchellS	3	1	2	4	-.250	26	0	2	5	0	0	0	1
8Tehya ShawMB	2	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
16Chloe BrownDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0
3Sydney BellOPP	3	8	2	19	.316	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	9
10Anaya ColeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	0
15Eve AdamsOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
11Abbie WillisOH	2	2	0	8	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
24Reese CollinsMB	2	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
5Michal BenaimS	2	0	0	0	–	6	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
13Sadie GladhillL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	13	107	.224	35	3	7	45	5	3	3	57

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Ball St. vs Buffalo

Season series · Ball St. leads 2-0

Fri, Nov 6, 2026Ball St. at Buffalo · Ball St. won 3-0Result →
Sat, Nov 7, 2026Ball St. at Buffalo · Ball St. won 3-0This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 BALLST · BUFF 5

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 5 BALLSTBUFF 2

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 BALLSTBUFF 5

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 BALLSTBUFF 2

Bars above the line = Buffalo leads, below = Ball St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Ball St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%3/4	33%1/3
2	100%3/3	25%1/4
3	60%3/5	40%2/5
4	100%3/3	50%3/6
5	50%2/4	0%0/2
6	100%2/2	50%2/4
All	76%16/21	38%9/24

Buffalo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%3/4	25%1/4
2	60%3/5	0%0/3
3	50%3/6	40%2/5
4	100%2/2	0%0/3
5	50%2/4	50%2/4
6	67%2/3	0%0/2
All	63%15/24	24%5/21

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

132 rallies

#	BALLST-BUFF	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Sophie Ledbetter	+0.9
2	2-0		BALLST	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.2
3	2-1	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.9
4	3-1	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.9
5	4-1	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+1.1
6	4-2	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.8
7	4-3	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.3
8	5-3	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+0.9
9	5-4	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.0
10	5-5	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell		+1.6
11	6-5	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Lucy McCollum	+1.1
12	7-5	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lucy McCollum	+1.4
13	7-6	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.0
14	8-6	BUFF	BALLST	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.0
15	8-7	BALLST	BUFF	Serve err	Ball St.		+1.1
16	9-7	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lucy McCollum	+1.0
17	10-7	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+1.3
18	10-8	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Michal Benaim	+0.9
19	11-8	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.9
20	12-8	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Mallory Pike	set Lindsey Green	+1.1
21	12-9	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Abisola Adebayo	set Michal Benaim	+0.7
22	13-9	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.8
23	14-9	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.9
24	14-10	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Michal Benaim	+0.5
25	15-10	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.6
26	15-11	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
27	15-12	BUFF	BUFF	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.0
28	16-12	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lucy McCollum	+0.8
29	16-13	BALLST	BUFF	Serve err	Ball St.		+0.7
30	16-14		BUFF	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.4
31	17-14	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Mallory Pike	+1.2
32	18-14	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lucy McCollum	+1.3
33	18-15	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
34	19-15	BUFF	BALLST	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+0.9
35	19-16	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Michal Benaim	+0.7
36	20-16	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+0.9
37	20-17	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Michal Benaim	+0.7
38	21-17	BUFF	BALLST×5	Kill	Mallory Pike	set Sophie Ledbetter	+0.9
39	22-17	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Mallory Pike	set Lindsey Green	+0.7
40	23-17	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.3
41	24-17		BALLST	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.1
42	25-17	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Ava Smith	set Audrey Geer	·
Set 2
1	1-0	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+1.0
2	1-1		BUFF	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.7
3	2-1	BUFF	BALLST	Blocked	Abbie Willis	blk Abisola Adebayo	+0.7
4	3-1	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.9
5	3-2	BALLST	BUFF	Serve err	Ball St.		+0.7
6	3-3	BUFF	BUFF	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.1
7	4-3	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.7
8	5-3	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+1.0
9	5-4	BALLST	BUFF	Serve err	Ball St.		+0.7
10	6-4	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+0.7
11	6-5	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Manoela Forlin	+0.7
12	6-6		BUFF	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.2
13	7-6	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lucy McCollum	+0.8
14	8-6	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lucy McCollum	+1.1
15	8-7	BALLST	BUFF	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.7
16	8-8	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.2
17	9-8	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Gwen Crull	+0.8
18	9-9	BALLST	BUFF	Serve err	Ball St.		+0.9
19	10-9	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Lucy McCollum	+0.9
20	11-9	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Audrey Geer	+1.2
21	11-10	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Michal Benaim	+0.8
22	12-10	BUFF	BALLST×4	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+0.8
23	13-10	BALLST	BALLST×4	Serve err	Ball St.		+1.0
24	14-10	BALLST	BALLST×4	Kill	Mallory Pike	set Lindsey Green	+0.8
25	15-10	BALLST	BALLST×4	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+0.6
26	15-11	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
27	16-11	BUFF	BALLST×4	Serve err	Buffalo		+0.4
28	17-11	BALLST	BALLST×4	Attack err	Maddie Mitchell		+0.4
29	18-11	BALLST	BALLST×4	Kill	Ava Smith	set Audrey Geer	+0.3
30	19-11	BALLST	BALLST×4	Ace	Ball St.	aced Chloe Brown	+0.1
31	19-12	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
32	20-12	BUFF	BALLST	Serve err	Buffalo		+0.1
33	20-13	BALLST	BUFF×5	Serve err	Ball St.		·
34	20-14	BUFF	BUFF×5	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
35	20-15	BUFF	BUFF×5	Ace	Buffalo	aced Sophie Ledbetter	+0.2
36	20-16	BUFF	BUFF×5	Attack err	Ava Smith		+0.4
37	20-17	BUFF	BUFF×5	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
38	21-17	BUFF	BALLST	Serve err	Buffalo		+0.6
39	21-18	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
40	21-19	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Audrey Geer		+1.1
41	22-19	BUFF	BALLST	Serve err	Buffalo		+1.0
42	23-19	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lucy McCollum	+0.9
43	23-20	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
44	24-20	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lucy McCollum	+0.5
45	25-20	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.2
Set 3
1	0-1	BUFF	BUFF	Ace	Buffalo	aced Audrey Geer	+0.6
2	1-1	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+0.4
3	2-1	BALLST	BALLST	Blocked	Hailey Campagna	blk Tiffany Snook	+0.5
4	2-2	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
5	3-2	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.4
6	3-3	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
7	3-4	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Reese Collins		+0.6
8	4-4	BUFF	BALLST	Serve err	Buffalo		+0.4
9	4-5	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
10	5-5	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lucy McCollum	+0.4
11	5-6	BALLST	BUFF	Attack err	Ava Smith		+0.5
12	5-7	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Audrey Geer		+0.7
13	6-7	BUFF	BALLST	Serve err	Buffalo		+0.5
14	6-8	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
15	7-8	BUFF	BALLST	Attack err	Maddie Mitchell		+0.5
16	8-8	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Sophie Ledbetter	+0.7
17	8-9	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
18	9-9	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+0.5
19	9-10	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Tehya Shaw	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
20	10-10	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.5
21	11-10	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.7
22	11-11	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
23	11-12	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Manoela Forlin	+0.8
24	12-12	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+0.5
25	12-13	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Reese Collins	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6
26	13-13	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Mallory Pike	set Lucy McCollum	+0.6
27	13-14	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
28	13-15	BUFF	BUFF	Blocked	Audrey Geer	blk Sydney Bell	+1.0
29	14-15	BUFF	BALLST×3	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+0.6
30	15-15	BALLST	BALLST×3	Ace	Ball St.	aced Hailey Campagna	+0.9
31	16-15	BALLST	BALLST×3	Bad set	Maddie Mitchell		+0.9
32	16-16	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6
33	17-16	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lucy McCollum	+0.6
34	17-17	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Maddie Mitchell	set Manoela Forlin	+0.7
35	18-17	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.7
36	18-18	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.7
37	19-18	BUFF	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.7
38	20-18	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+1.0
39	20-19	BALLST	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.6
40	21-19	BUFF	BALLST×4	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.7
41	22-19	BALLST	BALLST×4	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+0.8
42	23-19	BALLST	BALLST×4	Blocked	Hailey Campagna	blk Gwen Crull	+0.4
43	24-19	BALLST	BALLST×4	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lucy McCollum	+0.2
44	24-20	BALLST	BUFF	Serve err	Ball St.		·
45	25-20	BUFF	BALLST	Blocked	Sydney Bell	blk Ava Smith	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Ball St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Ball St. def. Buffalo 3–0

No set was closer than 5 points: Ball St. swept Buffalo.