Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Troy def. Louisiana Tech 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Troy 91.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Troy won at Louisiana Tech 3-1 (24-26, 25-18, 26-24, 25-22) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Troy's Olivia Kwiatkowski led with 14 kills, and Haley Nash added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set1234Sets
TROY242526253
LATECH261824221

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Troy held off Louisiana Tech.

The match turned twice; each line shows Troy's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Troy went in as RallyIQ's 92% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Troy 22–18 Louisiana Tech

    Louisiana Tech scored 5 straight to turn an 18–22 deficit into a 23–22 lead.

    Troy 93% → 72%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Troy 23–23 Louisiana Tech

    Troy won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 26–24 and lead 2–1.

    Troy 78% → 94%

Louisiana Tech above 50Troy belowMax swing 9.0%

TroyLouisiana Tech

Sideout %
Troy 60.4·Louisiana Tech 54.5
Break %
Troy 45.5·Louisiana Tech 39.6
Hitting
Troy .152·Louisiana Tech .101
Longest run
Troy 6·Louisiana Tech 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Louisiana Tech above 50 · Troy below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.0% TROYrally 190 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.0% to Troy — set 3, TROY 24-23 LATECH. Kill by Olivia Kwiatkowski (set by Madison Marx). LATECH win probability 22% → 13%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TROY 91.6%8.4% LATECH

Troy wins

3-0
47.3%
3-1
31.3%
3-2
12.9%

Louisiana Tech wins

3-0
1.1%
3-1
2.5%
3-2
4.8%
TROY break %
46.5% vs this opp
LATECH break %
36.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Olivia Kwiatkowski (set by Madison Marx)

    Set 3 · TROY 24-23 LATECH · TROY 78% → 87%

  2. 02

    Kalina Calvillo stuffed by Violet Morrandez & Gabrielle Hairston

    Set 3 · TROY 22-23 LATECH · LATECH 19% → 28%

  3. 03

    Kill by Gabrielle Hairston (set by Sydnee Carter)

    Set 1 · TROY 24-26 LATECH · LATECH 17% → 24%

  4. 04

    Gabrielle Hairston stuffed by Kalina Calvillo & Ashlynn Axtell

    Set 3 · TROY 26-24 LATECH · TROY 87% → 94%

  5. 05

    Olivia Kwiatkowski stuffed by Violet Morrandez & Kylie Rodriguez

    Set 3 · TROY 24-24 LATECH · LATECH 13% → 19%

  6. 06
    Megan CooleyService error+6.2%

    Service error by Megan Cooley

    Set 3 · TROY 25-24 LATECH · TROY 81% → 87%

  7. 07

    Olivia Kwiatkowski stuffed by Violet Morrandez & Kylie Rodriguez

    Set 3 · TROY 22-22 LATECH · LATECH 13% → 19%

  8. 08

    Kill by Kalina Calvillo (set by Josephine Hensley)

    Set 3 · TROY 23-23 LATECH · TROY 72% → 78%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Troyaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414833.18223461132.519.5
412327.3330002036618
413535.22913630031.517.5
4101031.0000000000010
4139-.22202034010.53.5
41011.0002912600002
43215.06700010010.53.5
4000–1511300001
4000–6001510000
4000–0001010000
4000–001000000
Team totals5431151.15253101449841411100
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
47221.2381237302110
48618.1110005012210
46426.077000000217
4119.000290020031.52.5
4001.000122620002
2013-.33300110010.50.5
412834.11800070031.513.5
4001.0001321810003
4000–112210001
2226.00000000174.56.5
Team totals3624119.1013381048102201290

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Troy vs Louisiana Tech

Season series · Troy leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 TROY · LATECH 5

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 6 TROYLATECH 5

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 3 TROYLATECH 2

Set 3

26-24

Longest run 3 TROYLATECH 5

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 4 TROYLATECH 3

Bars above the line = Louisiana Tech leads, below = Troy leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Troy

SlotSideout %Break %
1
61%11/18
41%7/17
2
73%11/15
52%12/23
3
69%9/13
44%7/16
4
62%8/13
43%6/14
5
47%8/17
11%1/9
6
53%8/15
60%12/20
All
60%55/91
45%45/99

Louisiana Tech

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
44%7/16
2
56%10/18
21%3/14
3
45%9/20
29%4/14
4
100%8/8
47%8/17
5
50%8/16
50%8/16
6
50%8/16
43%6/14
All
55%54/99
40%36/91

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

190 rallies

#TROY-LATECHSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0LATECHTROY×3BlockedGabrielle Hairstonblk Ashlynn Axtell, Olivia Kwiatkowski+0.6
22-0TROYTROY×3KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+0.8
33-0TROYTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+0.7
43-1TROYLATECHServe errTroy+0.5
54-1LATECHTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+0.5
64-2TROYLATECHServe errTroy+0.5
75-2LATECHTROYServe errLouisiana Tech+0.5
86-2TROYTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+0.6
96-3TROYLATECH×5KillTyra McKinnieset Sydnee Carter+0.4
106-4LATECHLATECH×5AceLouisiana Techaced Brooke Forkum+0.7
116-5LATECHLATECH×5KillSydnee Carterset Ashlynn Axtell+0.9
126-6LATECHLATECH×5BlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Tyra McKinnie+1.1
136-7LATECHLATECH×5Attack errIsa Ruether+1.3
147-7LATECHTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+0.9
157-8TROYLATECH×5KillTaylor Woodsset Sydnee Carter+1.0
167-9LATECHLATECH×5Attack errIsa Ruether+1.6
177-10LATECHLATECH×5Attack errBrooke Forkum+1.7
187-11LATECHLATECH×5AceLouisiana Tech+1.8
197-12LATECHLATECH×5KillKylie Rodriguezset Sydnee Carter+1.8
208-12LATECHTROY×6KillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+0.9
219-12TROYTROY×6KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+1.5
2210-12TROYTROY×6Attack errTaylor Woods+1.6
2311-12TROYTROY×6KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Haley Nash+1.6
2412-12TROYTROY×6Attack errKylie Rodriguez+1.6
2513-12TROYTROY×6AceTroyaced Abbi Sells+1.4
2613-13TROYLATECHAttack errIsa Ruether+1.1
2713-14LATECHLATECHKillTaylor Woodsset Sydnee Carter+1.8
2814-14LATECHTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.2
2915-14TROYTROYAttack errKylie Rodriguez+1.6
3015-15TROYLATECHKillKylie Rodriguezset Sydnee Carter+1.2
3116-15LATECHTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.2
3216-16TROYLATECHServe errTroy+1.3
3317-16LATECHTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.3
3417-17TROYLATECHServe errTroy+1.4
3518-17LATECHTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.4
3619-17TROYTROY×3Attack errTyra McKinnie+1.7
3720-17TROYTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.3
3820-18TROYLATECHServe errTroy+0.8
3921-18LATECHTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Haley Nash+1.0
4021-19TROYLATECH×3KillTyra McKinnieset Sydnee Carter+0.8
4121-20LATECHLATECH×3AceLouisiana Techaced Brooke Forkum+1.7
4221-21LATECHLATECH×3Attack errIsa Ruether+2.7
4322-21LATECHTROYServe errLouisiana Tech+2.1
4423-21TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+2.5
4523-22TROYLATECH×3KillKylie Rodriguezset Sydnee Carter+1.3
4623-23LATECHLATECH×3AceLouisiana Techaced Brooke Forkum+3.5
4723-24LATECHLATECH×3AceLouisiana Techaced Kayla Baetzel+5.6
4824-24LATECHTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+4.1
4924-25TROYLATECHKillKylie Rodriguezset Sydnee Carter+4.1
5024-26LATECHLATECHKillGabrielle Hairstonset Sydnee Carter+7.1
Set 2
10-1TROYLATECHServe errTroy+1.7
21-1LATECHTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.5
32-1TROYTROY×3AceTroyaced Taylor Woods+2.0
43-1TROYTROY×3AceTroyaced Megan Cooley+1.7
53-2TROYLATECHBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Anaya Hairston, Gabrielle Hairston+1.3
63-3LATECHLATECHKillTaylor Woodsset Riley Steubing+2.2
74-3LATECHTROYServe errLouisiana Tech+1.5
84-4TROYLATECHServe errTroy+1.7
94-5LATECHLATECHAttack errBrooke Forkum+2.6
105-5LATECHTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.7
115-6TROYLATECHAttack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+2.0
126-6LATECHTROYBad setRiley Steubing+1.8
136-7TROYLATECHBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Tyra McKinnie, Sydnee Carter+2.1
146-8LATECHLATECHAttack errIsa Ruether+3.2
157-8LATECHTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+2.0
167-9TROYLATECHKillKylie Rodriguezset Sydnee Carter+2.5
178-9LATECHTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Haley Nash+2.1
188-10TROYLATECHAttack errAshlynn Axtell+2.6
199-10LATECHTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.2
2010-10TROYTROYBlockedAnaya Hairstonblk Ashlynn Axtell+3.1
2110-11TROYLATECHKillKylie Rodriguezset Sydnee Carter+2.5
2211-11LATECHTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+2.2
2312-11TROYTROYAttack errTaylor Woods+2.9
2412-12TROYLATECHServe errTroy+2.3
2513-12LATECHTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.1
2613-13TROYLATECHKillGabrielle Hairstonset Sydnee Carter+2.4
2714-13LATECHTROYAttack errSydnee Carter+2.2
2815-13TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Haley Nash+2.8
2915-14TROYLATECHKillTaylor Woodsset Sydnee Carter+2.0
3016-14LATECHTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+2.1
3117-14TROYTROY×3BlockedTyra McKinnieblk Olivia Kwiatkowski+2.4
3218-14TROYTROY×3Attack errKylie Rodriguez+1.8
3318-15TROYLATECHKillTyra McKinnieset Sydnee Carter+1.0
3418-16LATECHLATECHAceLouisiana Techaced Olivia Kwiatkowski+2.2
3519-16LATECHTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Olivia Kwiatkowski+1.8
3619-17TROYLATECHAttack errKalina Calvillo+1.6
3720-17LATECHTROY×3KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.9
3821-17TROYTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.9
3922-17TROYTROY×3KillKalina Calvilloset Haley Nash+1.0
4022-18TROYLATECHKillGabrielle Hairstonset Sydnee Carter+0.4
4123-18LATECHTROY×3KillBrooke Forkumset Kalina Calvillo+0.6
4224-18TROYTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtell+0.3
4325-18TROYTROY×3Bad setAnaya Hairston·
Set 3
11-0LATECHTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Haley Nash+1.2
22-0TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+1.5
32-1TROYLATECHKillGabrielle Hairstonset Sydnee Carter+1.2
42-2LATECHLATECHBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Taylor Woods, Violet Morrandez+1.9
53-2LATECHTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.3
64-2TROYTROYBlockedGabrielle Hairstonblk Ashlynn Axtell, Kalina Calvillo+1.6
74-3TROYLATECHServe errTroy+1.2
85-3LATECHTROY×3KillMadison Marxset Olivia Kwiatkowski+1.2
96-3TROYTROY×3AceTroyaced Riley Steubing+1.4
107-3TROYTROY×3AceTroyaced Taylor Woods+1.2
117-4TROYLATECHAttack errIsa Ruether+0.8
127-5LATECHLATECHBlockedBrooke Forkumblk Taylor Woods, Tyra McKinnie+1.4
138-5LATECHTROYServe errLouisiana Tech+1.1
148-6TROYLATECHKillTyra McKinnieset Sydnee Carter+1.1
158-7LATECHLATECHAttack errSophie Ocampo+1.9
169-7LATECHTROYServe errLouisiana Tech+1.3
1710-7TROYTROYAceTroy+1.6
1810-8TROYLATECH×3KillKylie Rodriguezset Abbi Sells+1.2
1910-9LATECHLATECH×3BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Violet Morrandez, Sydnee Carter+2.0
2010-10LATECHLATECH×3KillKylie Rodriguezset Sydnee Carter+2.5
2111-10LATECHTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+1.7
2212-10TROYTROY×3Attack errKylie Rodriguez+2.2
2313-10TROYTROY×3Attack errKylie Rodriguez+1.8
2413-11TROYLATECHServe errTroy+1.3
2514-11LATECHTROY×3KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.3
2615-11TROYTROY×3BlockedKylie Rodriguezblk Kalina Calvillo, Ashlynn Axtell+1.5
2716-11TROYTROY×3BlockedGabrielle Hairstonblk Olivia Kwiatkowski, Ashlynn Axtell+1.1
2816-12TROYLATECHKillViolet Morrandezset Sydnee Carter+0.6
2917-12LATECHTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+0.7
3017-13TROYLATECHKillViolet Morrandezset Sydnee Carter+0.6
3117-14LATECHLATECHAttack errAshlynn Axtell+1.3
3218-14LATECHTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.1
3319-14TROYTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.1
3419-15TROYLATECHServe errTroy+0.5
3520-15LATECHTROYBlockedTyra McKinnieblk Ashlynn Axtell+0.7
3620-16TROYLATECHServe errTroy+0.5
3720-17LATECHLATECHKillTyra McKinnieset Taylor Woods+1.2
3821-17LATECHTROYServe errTaylor Woods+1.2
3921-18TROYLATECHKillTyra McKinnieset Sydnee Carter+0.8
4022-18LATECHTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+1.1
4122-19TROYLATECH×5KillKylie Rodriguezset Sydnee Carter+0.7
4222-20LATECHLATECH×5KillKylie Rodriguezset Taylor Woods+1.9
4322-21LATECHLATECH×5KillGabrielle Hairstonset Sydnee Carter+3.5
4422-22LATECHLATECH×5BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Violet Morrandez, Kylie Rodriguez+5.8
4522-23LATECHLATECH×5BlockedKalina Calvilloblk Violet Morrandez, Gabrielle Hairston+8.5
4623-23LATECHTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+5.6
4724-23TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+9.0
4824-24TROYLATECHBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Violet Morrandez, Kylie Rodriguez+6.2
4925-24LATECHTROYServe errMegan Cooley+6.2
5026-24TROYTROYBlockedGabrielle Hairstonblk Kalina Calvillo, Ashlynn Axtell+7.0
Set 4
11-0TROYTROYBlockedViolet Morrandezblk Ashlynn Axtell+1.3
21-1TROYLATECHBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Violet Morrandez, Kylie Rodriguez+1.0
32-1LATECHTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+0.9
42-2TROYLATECHServe errTroy+1.0
53-2LATECHTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+0.9
63-3TROYLATECHKillTaylor Woodsset Megan Cooley+1.0
73-4LATECHLATECHAttack errIsa Ruether+1.7
84-4LATECHTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.1
94-5TROYLATECHKillTaylor Woodsset Sydnee Carter+1.3
105-5LATECHTROYBlockedTyra McKinnieblk Sophie Ocampo, Olivia Kwiatkowski+1.1
115-6TROYLATECHKillKylie Rodriguezset Sydnee Carter+1.3
126-6LATECHTROY×4Serve errRiley Steubing+1.2
137-6TROYTROY×4KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+1.6
148-6TROYTROY×4AceMadison Marxaced Taylor Woods+1.4
159-6TROYTROY×4Attack errViolet Morrandez+1.1
169-7TROYLATECHBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Violet Morrandez+0.8
179-8LATECHLATECHKillKylie Rodriguezset Sydnee Carter+1.4
1810-8LATECHTROY×3KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.0
1911-8TROYTROY×3Attack errKylie Rodriguez+1.2
2012-8TROYTROY×3Attack errKylie Rodriguez+1.0
2112-9TROYLATECHKillGabrielle Hairstonset Sydnee Carter+0.7
2212-10LATECHLATECHAceMegan Cooleyaced Brooke Forkum+1.2
2313-10LATECHTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+0.9
2413-11TROYLATECH×3Attack errIsa Ruether+0.9
2513-12LATECHLATECH×3Attack errIsa Ruether+1.7
2613-13LATECHLATECH×3KillTyra McKinnieset Madison Marx+2.1
2714-13LATECHTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.5
2815-13TROYTROY×3Attack errTyra McKinnie+1.9
2916-13TROYTROY×3AceJosephine Hensleyaced Megan Cooley+1.5
3016-14TROYLATECHKillTaylor Woodsset Sydnee Carter+1.0
3117-14LATECHTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.1
3217-15TROYLATECHKillTyra McKinnieset Sydnee Carter+1.0
3318-15LATECHTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+1.1
3418-16TROYLATECHAttack errSophie Ocampo+1.1
3519-16LATECHTROYServe errRiley Steubing+1.2
3619-17TROYLATECHBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Violet Morrandez, Sydnee Carter+1.1
3720-17LATECHTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.3
3821-17TROYTROYAceOlivia Kwiatkowski+1.2
3921-18TROYLATECHServe errOlivia Kwiatkowski+0.6
4021-19LATECHLATECHAceMegan Cooleyaced Haley Nash+1.4
4122-19LATECHTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.4
4223-19TROYTROYAceKalina Calvillo+1.1
4323-20TROYLATECHServe errKalina Calvillo+0.4
4424-20LATECHTROYBlockedTyra McKinnieblk Ashlynn Axtell, Brooke Forkum+0.7
4524-21TROYLATECHAttack errIsa Ruether+0.2
4624-22LATECHLATECHAttack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+0.8
4725-22LATECHTROYServe errAbbi Sells+1.3

Score shown after each rally, Troy first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).