FinalFri, Oct 9, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Dayton def. Saint Louis 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Dayton 85.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Dayton won at Saint Louis 3-0 (25-20, 25-11, 25-17) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Dayton's Kamryn Hunt led with 12 kills, and Natalie Harrington added 8 digs.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set123Sets
DAYTON2525253
ST LOU2011170

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Kamryn Hunt hit .455 with 12 kills as Dayton rolled past Saint Louis.

Win probability never moved more than 2.3 points on one rally; Saint Louis topped out at 17% in Set 1. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Dayton at 86%.

DaytonSaint Louis
  • Break %+25.5 pts
    54.128.6

    40 of 74 on serve vs 14 of 49, so Saint Louis's sideout was 45.9%.

  • Hitting+.291
    .258-.033

    38 kills, 14 errors vs 24 kills, 27 errors.

  • Longest run+3
    74

    7 straight Dayton points in the second set stretched a 4–3 lead to 11–3. Final score of the set: 25–11.

Saint Louis above 50Dayton belowMax swing 2.3%

DaytonSaint Louis

Aces
Dayton 5·Saint Louis 2
Serve err
Dayton 8·Saint Louis 5
Blocks
Dayton 9·Saint Louis 70 BS · 18 BA vs 1 BS · 12 BA
Digs
Dayton 35·Saint Louis 28

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Saint Louis above 50 · Dayton below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+2.3% ST LOUrally 123 · set 3

Biggest swing: 2.3% to Saint Louis — set 1, DAYTON 20-19 ST LOU. Kill by Ellie Rink (set by Lara Zigic). ST LOU win probability 11% → 13%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DAYTON 82.2%17.8% ST LOU

Dayton wins

3-0
33.9%
3-1
30.8%
3-2
17.6%

Saint Louis wins

3-0
2.8%
3-1
5.8%
3-2
9.2%
DAYTON break %
44.6% vs this opp
ST LOU break %
37.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ellie RinkKill+2.3%

    Kill by Ellie Rink (set by Lara Zigic)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 20-19 ST LOU · ST LOU 11% → 13%

  2. 02
    Ellie RinkAttack error+2.1%

    Attack error by Ellie Rink

    Set 1 · DAYTON 22-19 ST LOU · DAYTON 89% → 91%

  3. 03

    Kill by Gabriela Machin Borges (set by Rylee Sloss)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 21-19 ST LOU · DAYTON 87% → 89%

  4. 04
    Tamia MaddoxKill+1.7%

    Kill by Tamia Maddox (set by Jetta Brenning)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 0-2 ST LOU · ST LOU 15% → 17%

  5. 05

    Tamia Maddox stuffed by Abigail Cresse & Charlotte Vinson

    Set 1 · DAYTON 2-2 ST LOU · DAYTON 84% → 86%

  6. 06
    Kayla JansenBlock+1.5%

    Kamryn Hunt stuffed by Kayla Jansen

    Set 1 · DAYTON 20-18 ST LOU · ST LOU 9% → 11%

  7. 07
    Tamia MaddoxAttack error+1.4%

    Attack error by Tamia Maddox

    Set 1 · DAYTON 3-2 ST LOU · DAYTON 86% → 87%

  8. 08
    Kamryn HuntKill+1.3%

    Kill by Kamryn Hunt (set by Natalie Harrington)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 4-2 ST LOU · DAYTON 87% → 88%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Daytonaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312222.45503171010.515.5
35416.06300000052.57.5
3207.286001100635
3000–1410800001
25218.167101000005
2418.37500000010.54.5
38314.35700010010.58.5
3000–311700001
3000–302110000
2013-.333100300211
2001.000000000000
2000–1200700000
2000–001000000
1214.250000000213
1000–301000000
Team totals381493.2583758352018975
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
37214.357000110218
36823-.087000800217
3319.222000101436
3338.0002000700003
32514-.21400021010.52.5
3000–113300001
3125-.200001110001
3000–111410001
2112.000000100212
21516-.25000000010.51.5
2000–000010000
Team totals242791-.0332225285112748

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Dayton vs Saint Louis

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 DAYTON · ST LOU 4

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 DAYTONST LOU 4

Set 2

25-11

Longest run 7 DAYTONST LOU 2

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 7 DAYTONST LOU 3

Bars above the line = Saint Louis leads, below = Dayton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Dayton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%6/8
64%9/14
2
86%6/7
40%4/10
3
100%6/6
25%2/8
4
100%6/6
40%4/10
5
38%6/16
67%12/18
6
83%5/6
64%9/14
All
71%35/49
54%40/74

Saint Louis

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%6/14
14%1/7
2
50%6/12
25%2/8
3
100%6/6
14%1/7
4
38%6/16
0%0/6
5
31%5/16
14%1/7
6
50%5/10
64%9/14
All
46%34/74
29%14/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

123 rallies

#DAYTON-ST LOUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1DAYTONST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+1.1
20-2ST LOUST LOUKillTamia Maddoxset Jetta Brenning+1.7
31-2ST LOUDAYTON×4KillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+1.1
42-2DAYTONDAYTON×4BlockedTamia Maddoxblk Abigail Cresse, Charlotte Vinson+1.5
53-2DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errTamia Maddox+1.4
64-2DAYTONDAYTON×4KillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+1.3
74-3DAYTONST LOUServe errDayton+0.9
85-3ST LOUDAYTONAttack errTamia Maddox+0.9
95-4DAYTONST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.9
106-4ST LOUDAYTON×4KillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+0.9
117-4DAYTONDAYTON×4KillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+1.2
128-4DAYTONDAYTON×4KillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+1.0
139-4DAYTONDAYTON×4BlockedTea Kalajdzicblk Kamryn Hunt, Ava Liening+0.8
149-5DAYTONST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning+0.5
1510-5ST LOUDAYTON×3Attack errTea Kalajdzic+0.5
1611-5DAYTONDAYTON×3KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.6
1712-5DAYTONDAYTON×3KillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+0.4
1812-6DAYTONST LOU×4Attack errKaleigh Meritt+0.2
1912-7ST LOUST LOU×4Attack errAva Liening+0.5
2012-8ST LOUST LOU×4Attack errGabriela Machin Borges+0.7
2112-9ST LOUST LOU×4Attack errKaleigh Meritt+0.9
2213-9ST LOUDAYTONAttack errEllie Rink+0.8
2314-9DAYTONDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Kaleigh Meritt+0.8
2414-10DAYTONST LOUServe errDayton+0.5
2515-10ST LOUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.6
2615-11DAYTONST LOUKillJetta Brenning+0.5
2716-11ST LOUDAYTONAttack errEllie Rink+0.6
2816-12DAYTONST LOUAttack errCharlotte Vinson+0.5
2916-13ST LOUST LOUAttack errCharlotte Vinson+1.0
3017-13ST LOUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+0.8
3117-14DAYTONST LOUServe errDayton+0.7
3218-14ST LOUDAYTONKillAva Lieningset Natalie Harrington+0.9
3318-15DAYTONST LOUBlockedKamryn Huntblk Tea Kalajdzic, J'La Sparks+0.7
3419-15ST LOUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.9
3520-15DAYTONDAYTONAceDaytonaced J'La Sparks+0.8
3620-16DAYTONST LOU×4KillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.4
3720-17ST LOUST LOU×4BlockedGabriela Machin Borgesblk Kayla Jansen, Ellie Rink+0.9
3820-18ST LOUST LOU×4BlockedKamryn Huntblk Kayla Jansen+1.5
3920-19ST LOUST LOU×4KillEllie Rinkset Lara Zigic+2.3
4021-19ST LOUDAYTON×3KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+1.9
4122-19DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errEllie Rink+2.1
4223-19DAYTONDAYTON×3BlockedEllie Rinkblk Abigail Cresse, Gabriela Machin Borges+1.2
4323-20DAYTONST LOUKillTea Kalajdzicset Jetta Brenning+0.4
4424-20ST LOUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.7
4525-20DAYTONDAYTONAttack errJetta Brenning+0.3
Set 2
11-0ST LOUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+0.7
21-1DAYTONST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Lucy Rankin+0.7
32-1ST LOUDAYTONAttack errKayla Jansen+0.7
43-1DAYTONDAYTONAttack errTamia Maddox+0.9
53-2DAYTONST LOUServe errDayton+0.6
64-2ST LOUDAYTONKillAva Lieningset Natalie Harrington+0.6
74-3DAYTONST LOUBlockedGabriela Machin Borgesblk Tamia Maddox, J'La Sparks+0.7
85-3ST LOUDAYTON×7KillKamryn Huntset Lily Barry+0.6
96-3DAYTONDAYTON×7Attack errTea Kalajdzic+0.8
107-3DAYTONDAYTON×7Attack errTea Kalajdzic+0.7
118-3DAYTONDAYTON×7KillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+0.5
129-3DAYTONDAYTON×7Attack errAnna Alexander+0.4
1310-3DAYTONDAYTON×7KillAva Liening+0.3
1411-3DAYTONDAYTON×7KillKaleigh Merittset Morgan Asleson+0.2
1511-4DAYTONST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning+0.1
1611-5ST LOUST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning+0.2
1712-5ST LOUDAYTONServe errSaint Louis+0.2
1812-6DAYTONST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning+0.2
1913-6ST LOUDAYTONKillAbigail Cresseset Rylee Sloss+0.2
2014-6DAYTONDAYTONAttack errJetta Brenning+0.2
2114-7DAYTONST LOUBlockedCharlotte Vinsonblk Ellie Rink, Kayla Jansen+0.1
2215-7ST LOUDAYTONServe errSaint Louis+0.1
2315-8DAYTONST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.1
2416-8ST LOUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Lily Barry+0.1
2517-8DAYTONDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+0.1
2617-9DAYTONST LOUKillAnna Alexanderset Jetta Brenning·
2718-9ST LOUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Lily Barry+0.1
2818-10DAYTONST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning·
2919-10ST LOUDAYTONKillAva Lieningset Rylee Sloss+0.1
3019-11DAYTONST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning·
3120-11ST LOUDAYTON×6KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss·
3221-11DAYTONDAYTON×6Attack errJ'La Sparks·
3322-11DAYTONDAYTON×6BlockedTea Kalajdzicblk Abigail Cresse, Sidney Sprada·
3423-11DAYTONDAYTON×6Attack errAnna Alexander·
3524-11DAYTONDAYTON×6KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Morgan Asleson·
3625-11DAYTONDAYTON×6AceDaytonaced Lara Zigic·
Set 3
11-0DAYTONDAYTON×7KillAbigail Cresseset Natalie Harrington+0.5
22-0DAYTONDAYTON×7KillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.4
33-0DAYTONDAYTON×7KillCharlotte Vinsonset Morgan Asleson+0.4
44-0DAYTONDAYTON×7Attack errJetta Brenning+0.3
55-0DAYTONDAYTON×7AceDaytonaced Anna Alexander+0.2
66-0DAYTONDAYTON×7KillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+0.2
77-0DAYTONDAYTON×7BlockedTamia Maddoxblk Abigail Cresse, Charlotte Vinson+0.1
87-1DAYTONST LOUKillJetta Brenningset Morgan Asleson+0.1
98-1ST LOUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.1
108-2DAYTONST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+0.1
119-2ST LOUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+0.1
129-3DAYTONST LOUKillJ'La Sparksset Jetta Brenning+0.1
1310-3ST LOUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+0.1
1411-3DAYTONDAYTONAttack errJ'La Sparks+0.1
1511-4DAYTONST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.1
1612-4ST LOUDAYTONKillIsabel Simmonsset Emily Harden+0.1
1712-5DAYTONST LOUKillAvery Boehmset Jetta Brenning+0.1
1812-6ST LOUST LOUBlockedSidney Spradablk Kayla Jansen, Avery Boehm+0.1
1913-6ST LOUDAYTONKillIsabel Simmonsset Emily Harden+0.1
2014-6DAYTONDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Emily Harden+0.1
2114-7DAYTONST LOUServe errDayton·
2214-8ST LOUST LOUAceSaint Louisaced Kamryn Hunt+0.1
2315-8ST LOUDAYTONServe errSaint Louis+0.1
2415-9DAYTONST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+0.1
2515-10ST LOUST LOUAttack errCharlotte Vinson+0.2
2616-10ST LOUDAYTONAttack errEllie Rink+0.1
2717-10DAYTONDAYTONBlockedEllie Rinkblk Abigail Cresse, Charlotte Vinson+0.1
2817-11DAYTONST LOUKillKayla Jansenset Jetta Brenning+0.1
2918-11ST LOUDAYTONBlockedEllie Rinkblk Charlotte Vinson, Abigail Cresse+0.1
3018-12DAYTONST LOUKillEllie Rinkset Jetta Brenning+0.1
3119-12ST LOUDAYTONBlockedEllie Rinkblk Isabel Simmons, Charlotte Vinson+0.1
3219-13DAYTONST LOUServe errDayton·
3320-13ST LOUDAYTON×4KillKamryn Huntset Sidney Sprada+0.1
3421-13DAYTONDAYTON×4BlockedAvery Boehmblk Sidney Sprada, Isabel Simmons·
3522-13DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDaytonaced Tamia Maddox·
3623-13DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDaytonaced Athena Tsalapatanis·
3723-14DAYTONST LOU×3Serve errDayton·
3823-15ST LOUST LOU×3AceSaint Louisaced Lily Barry·
3923-16ST LOUST LOU×3BlockedIsabel Simmonsblk Avery Boehm, Kayla Jansen·
4024-16ST LOUDAYTONServe errSaint Louis·
4124-17DAYTONST LOUServe errDayton·
4225-17ST LOUDAYTONServe errSaint Louis·

Score shown after each rally, Dayton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).