FinalSat, Oct 24, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Denver def. Pacific 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Denver 85.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 24, 3:10 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Denver won at Pacific 3-0 (25-18, 25-21, 25-22) on Sat, Oct 24, 2026. Denver's Alicia Thibodeau led with 12 kills, and Madison Winkler added 17 digs.

Data through · final Oct 24

Set123Sets
DENVER2525253
PACIF1821220

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Denver swept Pacific without a set decided by more than seven and led every phase.

No single rally moved win probability more than 1.6 points. Pacific peaked at 16% in Set 1. These are the numbers behind it. Denver went in as RallyIQ's 86% pick.

DenverPacific
  • Break %+12.3 pts
    42.530.2

    31 of 73 on serve vs 19 of 63, so Pacific's sideout was 57.5%.

  • Hitting+.127
    .267.140

    Kills and errors: 41–9 vs 40–22.

  • Longest run+2
    64

    Up 10–7 in the first set, Denver scored 6 straight to make it 16–7. That set ended 25–18.

Pacific above 50Denver belowMax swing 1.6%

DenverPacific

Aces
Denver 4·Pacific 6
Serve err
Denver 5·Pacific 6
Blocks
Denver 8·Pacific 53 BS · 10 BA vs 2 BS · 6 BA
Digs
Denver 56·Pacific 57

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Pacific above 50 · Denver below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+1.6% PACIFrally 136 · set 3

Biggest swing: 1.6% to Pacific — set 1, DENVER 2-3 PACIF. Pacific ace on Madison Winkler. PACIF win probability 14% → 16%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DENVER 87.2%12.8% PACIF

Denver wins

3-0
40.0%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
15.6%

Pacific wins

3-0
1.8%
3-1
4.0%
3-2
7.0%
DENVER break %
46.4% vs this opp
PACIF break %
37.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    PacificAce+1.6%

    Pacific ace on Madison Winkler

    Set 1 · DENVER 2-3 PACIF · PACIF 14% → 16%

  2. 02
    Kayla PatelKill+1.4%

    Kill by Kayla Patel (set by Madison Winkler)

    Set 1 · DENVER 4-3 PACIF · DENVER 85% → 87%

  3. 03
    Izabela MolinaBlock+1.3%

    Gracie Armato stuffed by Izabela Molina

    Set 1 · DENVER 5-3 PACIF · DENVER 87% → 88%

  4. 04

    Kill by Hannah Koester (set by Alessia Couchond)

    Set 2 · DENVER 13-12 PACIF · PACIF 5% → 7%

  5. 05
    PacificAce+1.2%

    Pacific ace on Kayla Patel

    Set 2 · DENVER 3-4 PACIF · PACIF 7% → 8%

  6. 06
    DenverAce+1.2%

    Denver ace

    Set 1 · DENVER 7-4 PACIF · DENVER 88% → 89%

  7. 07
    Lily Van HalBad set+1.1%

    Bad set by Lily Van Hal

    Set 2 · DENVER 6-6 PACIF · PACIF 6% → 8%

  8. 08

    Gracie Armato stuffed by Jamia Johnson & Izabela Molina

    Set 1 · DENVER 3-3 PACIF · DENVER 84% → 85%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Denveraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312437.21610170132.514.5
38226.23102291010.510.5
36014.429000101439
34118.16701030111.56.5
3217.1433001800002
3000–101820000
39117.47100030010.59.5
3001.0006101710001
Team totals419120.2673845566310875
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
310324.29213120031.514.5
312334.2650008100012
34012.33300000111.55.5
3103.33315121000002
1037-.429000000000
1013-.333000000000
35218.167111900006
3226.00000000010.52.5
3103.3331800700001
3000–3101810001
24411.000000301015
2148-.37500000010.51.5
2000–002010000
Team totals4022129.140386657426561

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Denver vs Pacific

Season series · Denver leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 DENVER · PACIF 4

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 6 DENVERPACIF 2

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 3 DENVERPACIF 4

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 4 DENVERPACIF 4

Bars above the line = Pacific leads, below = Denver leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Denver

SlotSideout %Break %
1
64%9/14
36%4/11
2
80%8/10
58%11/19
3
64%7/11
50%7/14
4
64%7/11
22%2/9
5
78%7/9
42%5/12
6
75%6/8
25%2/8
All
70%44/63
42%31/73

Pacific

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%9/21
27%3/11
2
47%7/15
25%3/12
3
64%7/11
42%5/12
4
70%7/10
42%5/12
5
67%6/9
13%1/8
6
86%6/7
25%2/8
All
58%42/73
30%19/63

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

136 rallies

#DENVER-PACIFSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0PACIFDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Emersen Werger+0.9
21-1DENVERPACIFAttack errLily Van Hal+1.0
32-1PACIFDENVERBlockedHanna Vorhiesblk Izabela Molina, Alicia Thibodeau+1.0
42-2DENVERPACIFAttack errKayla Patel+1.1
52-3PACIFPACIFAcePacificaced Madison Winkler+1.6
63-3PACIFDENVER×3BlockedGracie Armatoblk Jamia Johnson, Izabela Molina+1.1
74-3DENVERDENVER×3KillKayla Patelset Madison Winkler+1.4
85-3DENVERDENVER×3BlockedGracie Armatoblk Izabela Molina+1.3
95-4DENVERPACIFKillChloe Giehtbrockset Isabella Gutierrez+1.0
106-4PACIFDENVER×3Attack errGracie Armato+1.0
117-4DENVERDENVER×3AceDenver+1.2
128-4DENVERDENVER×3KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.0
138-5DENVERPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+0.7
149-5PACIFDENVERServe errPacific+0.7
159-6DENVERPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+0.7
1610-6PACIFDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.7
1710-7DENVERPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Isabella Gutierrez+0.7
1811-7PACIFDENVER×6KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.8
1912-7DENVERDENVER×6KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.8
2013-7DENVERDENVER×6KillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+0.6
2114-7DENVERDENVER×6AceDenveraced Ella Gridley+0.4
2215-7DENVERDENVER×6KillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.3
2316-7DENVERDENVER×6KillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+0.2
2416-8DENVERPACIFKillEllie Prindlset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.1
2517-8PACIFDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.1
2617-9DENVERPACIFServe errDenver+0.1
2717-10PACIFPACIFAttack errAlicia Thibodeau+0.2
2818-10PACIFDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+0.2
2918-11DENVERPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.1
3019-11PACIFDENVERKillLily Van Hal+0.1
3120-11DENVERDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.1
3220-12DENVERPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond·
3320-13PACIFPACIFKillSuzanne Kemle+0.1
3421-13PACIFDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+0.1
3521-14DENVERPACIFKillHannah Koesterset Vanessa Zussino+0.1
3621-15PACIFPACIFAcePacificaced Emersen Werger+0.1
3722-15PACIFDENVERServe errPacific+0.2
3822-16DENVERPACIFServe errDenver+0.1
3922-17PACIFPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.2
4023-17PACIFDENVERServe errPacific+0.2
4123-18DENVERPACIFBlockedAlicia Thibodeaublk Ellie Prindl+0.1
4224-18PACIFDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.2
4325-18DENVERDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Madison Winkler·
Set 2
11-0DENVERDENVER×3KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.9
22-0DENVERDENVER×3AceDenveraced Nicole Zake+0.8
33-0DENVERDENVER×3AceDenveraced Isabella Gutierrez+0.7
43-1DENVERPACIF×4BlockedElise Hartblk Vanessa Zussino, Suzanne Kemle+0.5
53-2PACIFPACIF×4KillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+0.9
63-3PACIFPACIF×4KillAlessia Couchondset Elise Hart+1.0
73-4PACIFPACIF×4AcePacificaced Kayla Patel+1.2
84-4PACIFDENVER×3Serve errPacific+0.8
95-4DENVERDENVER×3Attack errVanessa Zussino+1.0
106-4DENVERDENVER×3KillLily Van Hal+0.9
116-5DENVERPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+0.7
126-6PACIFPACIFBad setLily Van Hal+1.1
137-6PACIFDENVER×3KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.8
148-6DENVERDENVER×3Attack errOlga Gergacz+1.0
159-6DENVERDENVER×3BlockedSuzanne Kemleblk Izabela Molina, Kayla Patel+0.9
169-7DENVERPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+0.6
179-8PACIFPACIFAttack errAlicia Thibodeau+1.0
1810-8PACIFDENVERServe errPacific+0.8
1910-9DENVERPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.8
2011-9PACIFDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+0.8
2111-10DENVERPACIFKillHannah Koesterset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.8
2212-10PACIFDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+0.8
2313-10DENVERDENVERAttack errVanessa Zussino+1.0
2413-11DENVERPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.7
2513-12PACIFPACIFKillHannah Koesterset Alessia Couchond+1.2
2614-12PACIFDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.9
2715-12DENVERDENVERBlockedHannah Koesterblk Alicia Thibodeau+1.1
2815-13DENVERPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+0.7
2916-13PACIFDENVERAttack errNicole Zake+0.8
3017-13DENVERDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.9
3117-14DENVERPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+0.5
3217-15PACIFPACIFAcePacificaced Emersen Werger+1.0
3318-15PACIFDENVERAttack errNicole Zake+0.9
3418-16DENVERPACIFKillSuzanne Kemleset Alessia Couchond+0.8
3519-16PACIFDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+0.9
3619-17DENVERPACIFServe errDenver+0.8
3720-17PACIFDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Madison Winkler+1.0
3821-17DENVERDENVER×3Attack errOlga Gergacz+0.9
3922-17DENVERDENVER×3KillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.5
4022-18DENVERPACIFKillEllie Prindlset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.2
4122-19PACIFPACIFBlockedKayla Patelblk Ellie Prindl, Vanessa Zussino+0.5
4223-19PACIFDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.6
4323-20DENVERPACIFKillHannah Koesterset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.3
4424-20PACIFDENVERBlockedSuzanne Kemleblk Elise Hart+0.6
4524-21DENVERPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+0.2
4625-21PACIFDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.4
Set 3
11-0PACIFDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+0.3
22-0DENVERDENVERAttack errAdeline Sirbu+0.4
32-1DENVERPACIFBlockedJamia Johnsonblk Adeline Sirbu, Vanessa Zussino+0.3
43-1PACIFDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+0.3
53-2DENVERPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+0.3
64-2PACIFDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.3
74-3DENVERPACIFServe errKayla Patel+0.3
84-4PACIFPACIFKillOlga Gergaczset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.5
95-4PACIFDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+0.4
105-5DENVERPACIFKillOlga Gergaczset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.4
116-5PACIFDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+0.4
126-6DENVERPACIFKillHannah Koesterset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.4
137-6PACIFDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Madison Winkler+0.4
147-7DENVERPACIFKillEllie Prindlset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.4
157-8PACIFPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+0.7
168-8PACIFDENVER×3KillKayla Patelset Madison Winkler+0.5
179-8DENVERDENVER×3Attack errAdeline Sirbu+0.6
1810-8DENVERDENVER×3Attack errVanessa Zussino+0.5
1910-9DENVERPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+0.4
2011-9PACIFDENVER×4KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+0.4
2112-9DENVERDENVER×4Bad setVanessa Zussino+0.5
2213-9DENVERDENVER×4Attack errHannah Koester+0.4
2314-9DENVERDENVER×4Bad setAlessia Couchond+0.3
2414-10DENVERPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+0.2
2514-11PACIFPACIFAceVanessa Zussino+0.4
2615-11PACIFDENVERAttack errAdeline Sirbu+0.3
2715-12DENVERPACIFKillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+0.3
2816-12PACIFDENVERBlockedOlga Gergaczblk Alicia Thibodeau, Elise Hart+0.3
2916-13DENVERPACIFKillOlga Gergaczset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.3
3017-13PACIFDENVERServe errElla Gridley+0.3
3117-14DENVERPACIFBlockedAlicia Thibodeaublk Olga Gergacz+0.3
3218-14PACIFDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.3
3318-15DENVERPACIFKillEllie Prindlset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.3
3419-15PACIFDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+0.3
3519-16DENVERPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+0.3
3620-16PACIFDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Madison Winkler+0.3
3721-16DENVERDENVERAttack errAdeline Sirbu+0.3
3821-17DENVERPACIFServe errEmersen Werger+0.1
3922-17PACIFDENVERKillKayla Patelset Alicia Thibodeau+0.2
4022-18DENVERPACIF×4KillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+0.1
4122-19PACIFPACIF×4KillNicole Zakeset Isabella Gutierrez+0.3
4222-20PACIFPACIF×4AceChloe Giehtbrock+0.5
4322-21PACIFPACIF×4KillNicole Zakeset Hannah Koester+0.9
4423-21PACIFDENVERAttack errNicole Zake+0.9
4523-22DENVERPACIFKillOlga Gergaczset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.7
4624-22PACIFDENVERBlockedOlga Gergaczblk Alicia Thibodeau, Izabela Molina+1.0
4725-22DENVERDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeau+0.7

Score shown after each rally, Denver first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).