FinalWed, Sep 16, 2026

DIL

Away

3:0

HomeSWAC

Dillard def. Mississippi Val. 3–0

(25-10, 25-20, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
DILLRD	25	25	25	3
MS VAL	10	20	21	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MS VAL above 50 · DILLRD below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Dillard — set 1, DILLRD 1-0 MS VAL. Kill by Sarai Rodgers (set by Cadence Thomas). MS VAL win probability 5% → 4%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

DILLRD 95.1%4.9% MS VAL

Dillard wins

3-0

55.8%

3-1

29.6%

3-2

9.7%

Mississippi Val. wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.4%

3-2

3.0%

DILLRD break %: 55.3% vs this opp
MS VAL break %: 42.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sarai RodgersKill+0.5%
Kill by Sarai Rodgers (set by Cadence Thomas)
Set 1 · DILLRD 1-0 MS VAL · DILLRD 95% → 96%
02
Makaela SwoopesAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Makaela Swoopes
Set 1 · DILLRD 8-6 MS VAL · MS VAL 4% → 4%
03
Ajanae ChathamAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Ajanae Chatham
Set 1 · DILLRD 3-2 MS VAL · MS VAL 4% → 4%
04
Madison ConleyKill+0.5%
Kill by Madison Conley (set by Aubrie Walker)
Set 1 · DILLRD 2-1 MS VAL · MS VAL 4% → 4%
05
MS VAL serverService error+0.4%
Mississippi Val. service error
Set 1 · DILLRD 9-6 MS VAL · DILLRD 96% → 96%
06
Khara MortonKill+0.4%
Kill by Khara Morton (set by Ajanae Chatham)
Set 1 · DILLRD 4-2 MS VAL · DILLRD 96% → 96%
07
Aniyah MooreAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Aniyah Moore
Set 1 · DILLRD 2-0 MS VAL · DILLRD 96% → 96%
08
MS VAL serverService error+0.4%
Mississippi Val. service error
Set 1 · DILLRD 3-1 MS VAL · DILLRD 96% → 96%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Dillardaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Neveah BaxOH	3	16	2	25	.560	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	16
4Cadence ThomasMB	3	7	1	8	.750	4	0	0	2	0	1	2	2	9
1Makaela SwoopesOH	3	6	4	13	.154	3	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
9Khara MortonMB	3	5	4	9	.111	2	0	0	4	0	0	2	1	6
10Sarai RodgersOPP	3	4	1	11	.273	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4
12Ajanae ChathamS	3	2	0	7	.286	16	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	3
5Kristian ThomasL/DS	3	1	0	6	.167	3	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	2
11Jasmyne MumphreyDS	3	1	0	3	.333	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
14Kendle WrightS	3	0	0	3	.000	11	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	1
20Nya St.CyrOPP	2	5	0	9	.556	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
2Cydne ClytonOH	2	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Brianna CoverseOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
16Sienna AdigunOPP	1	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		47	13	99	.343	40	4	2	38	2	1	8	5	75

Mississippi Val.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Taylor WootenOH	3	9	2	22	.318	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	10
15Aubrie WalkerOH	3	6	4	15	.133	2	1	1	3	1	0	3	1.5	8.5
6Aniyah MooreOH	3	5	2	10	.300	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	3.5	8.5
10Madison ConleyMB	3	3	2	14	.071	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
16Hannah St. CroixMB	2	2	1	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
4Erin MimsOH	2	0	0	2	.000	9	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Brooklyn BruntMB	3	3	1	12	.167	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
12Kameryn BrowneS	3	2	1	9	.111	16	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
1Ashlynn HawkinsOH	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
14Dashaun PinesetteMB	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Taylor WilsonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	10	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	13	96	.177	28	2	6	23	4	2	8	6	51

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 DILLRD · MS VAL 4

Set 1

25-10

Longest run 8 DILLRDMS VAL 2

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 DILLRDMS VAL 3

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 8 DILLRDMS VAL 4

Bars above the line = Mississippi Val. leads, below = Dillard leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Dillard

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	88%7/8	50%6/12
2	78%7/9	36%4/11
3	60%6/10	50%6/12
4	50%5/10	79%19/24
5	56%5/9	38%3/8
6	67%4/6	43%3/7
All	65%34/52	55%41/74

Mississippi Val.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	17%1/6
2	67%6/9	22%2/9
3	43%6/14	0%0/6
4	24%5/21	45%5/11
5	63%5/8	50%5/10
6	67%4/6	50%5/10
All	45%33/74	35%18/52

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	DILLRD-MS VAL	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	DILLRD	DILLRD	Kill	Sarai Rodgers	set Cadence Thomas	+0.5
2	2-0	DILLRD	DILLRD	Attack err	Aniyah Moore		+0.4
3	2-1	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Madison Conley	set Aubrie Walker	+0.5
4	3-1	MS VAL	DILLRD	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.4
5	3-2	DILLRD	MS VAL	Attack err	Ajanae Chatham		+0.5
6	4-2	MS VAL	DILLRD×3	Kill	Khara Morton	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.4
7	5-2	DILLRD	DILLRD×3	Attack err	Hannah St. Croix		+0.4
8	6-2	DILLRD	DILLRD×3	Ace	DILLRD server	aced Team	+0.3
9	6-3	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Erin Mims	+0.3
10	7-3	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Sarai Rodgers	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.3
11	7-4	DILLRD	MS VAL	Serve err	DILLRD server		+0.3
12	8-4	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Cadence Thomas	set Kendle Wright	+0.3
13	8-5	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Kameryn Browne	+0.4
14	8-6	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Makaela Swoopes		+0.5
15	9-6	MS VAL	DILLRD×3	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.4
16	10-6	DILLRD	DILLRD×3	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.4
17	11-6	DILLRD	DILLRD×3	Kill	Makaela Swoopes	set Kendle Wright	+0.3
18	11-7	DILLRD	MS VAL	Attack err	Khara Morton	blk Aubrie Walker, Aniyah Moore	+0.3
19	12-7	MS VAL	DILLRD	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.3
20	12-8	DILLRD	MS VAL	Attack err	Sarai Rodgers	blk Aniyah Moore	+0.3
21	13-8	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Khara Morton	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.3
22	14-8	DILLRD	DILLRD	Attack err	Taylor Wooten		+0.2
23	14-9	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Erin Mims	+0.2
24	15-9	MS VAL	DILLRD×3	Kill	Ajanae Chatham		+0.2
25	16-9	DILLRD	DILLRD×3	Kill	Sarai Rodgers	set Kristian Thomas	+0.2
26	17-9	DILLRD	DILLRD×3	Kill	Neveah Bax		+0.1
27	17-10	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Hannah St. Croix	set Erin Mims	+0.1
28	18-10	MS VAL	DILLRD×8	Kill	Cadence Thomas	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.1
29	19-10	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Attack err	Madison Conley	blk Cadence Thomas, Nya St.Cyr	+0.1
30	20-10	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Bad set	Taylor Wooten		+0.0
31	21-10	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Kill	Neveah Bax		+0.0
32	22-10	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Kill	Cadence Thomas	set Kendle Wright	+0.0
33	23-10	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Kill	Nya St.Cyr	set Kristian Thomas	+0.0
34	24-10	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Kristian Thomas	+0.0
35	25-10	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Kill	Nya St.Cyr	set Kendle Wright	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	MS VAL	DILLRD×4	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.3
2	2-0	DILLRD	DILLRD×4	Kill	Khara Morton	set Jasmyne Mumphrey	+0.3
3	3-0	DILLRD	DILLRD×4	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Cadence Thomas	+0.2
4	4-0	DILLRD	DILLRD×4	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.2
5	4-1	DILLRD	MS VAL×3	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Erin Mims	+0.2
6	4-2	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Khara Morton		+0.3
7	4-3	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Ace	MS VAL server	aced Team	+0.3
8	5-3	MS VAL	DILLRD	Bad set	Hannah St. Croix		+0.3
9	5-4	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Hannah St. Croix	set Erin Mims	+0.3
10	6-4	MS VAL	DILLRD×4	Kill	Cadence Thomas	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.3
11	7-4	DILLRD	DILLRD×4	Bad set	Hannah St. Croix		+0.3
12	8-4	DILLRD	DILLRD×4	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Cadence Thomas	+0.2
13	9-4	DILLRD	DILLRD×4	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Kendle Wright	+0.2
14	9-5	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Erin Mims	+0.2
15	10-5	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Cadence Thomas	set Kendle Wright	+0.2
16	11-5	DILLRD	DILLRD	Ace	DILLRD server	aced Aubrie Walker	+0.1
17	11-6	DILLRD	MS VAL	Serve err	DILLRD server		+0.1
18	11-7	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Makaela Swoopes	blk Madison Conley, Brooklyn Brunt	+0.2
19	12-7	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Cadence Thomas	set Kendle Wright	+0.2
20	12-8	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Kameryn Browne	+0.2
21	12-9	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Khara Morton		+0.3
22	13-9	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Makaela Swoopes	set Kendle Wright	+0.3
23	13-10	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Kameryn Browne	+0.3
24	13-11	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Makaela Swoopes	blk Aubrie Walker, Aniyah Moore	+0.4
25	14-11	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Khara Morton	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.4
26	14-12	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Erin Mims	+0.4
27	15-12	MS VAL	DILLRD×3	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.4
28	16-12	DILLRD	DILLRD×3	Kill	Jasmyne Mumphrey	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.3
29	17-12	DILLRD	DILLRD×3	Attack err	Aniyah Moore		+0.2
30	17-13	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Erin Mims	+0.2
31	18-13	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Neveah Bax		+0.2
32	19-13	DILLRD	DILLRD	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Cadence Thomas	+0.2
33	19-14	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Erin Mims	+0.1
34	19-15	MS VAL	MS VAL	Kill	Kameryn Browne	set Taylor Wooten	+0.2
35	20-15	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Cadence Thomas	set Kendle Wright	+0.2
36	20-16	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Kameryn Browne		+0.2
37	21-16	MS VAL	DILLRD	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.2
38	22-16	DILLRD	DILLRD	Attack err	Aubrie Walker	blk Khara Morton, Sienna Adigun	+0.1
39	22-17	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Kameryn Browne	+0.1
40	22-18	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Makaela Swoopes	blk Aniyah Moore, Aubrie Walker	+0.2
41	23-18	MS VAL	DILLRD	Attack err	Brooklyn Brunt	blk Khara Morton, Makaela Swoopes	+0.2
42	23-19	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Kameryn Browne	+0.1
43	24-19	MS VAL	DILLRD	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.2
44	24-20	DILLRD	MS VAL	Attack err	Khara Morton	blk Aniyah Moore	+0.1
45	25-20	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	DILLRD	MS VAL	Bad set	Makaela Swoopes		+0.2
2	1-1	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Makaela Swoopes	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.2
3	1-2	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Kameryn Browne	+0.2
4	2-2	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Sarai Rodgers	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.2
5	2-3	DILLRD	MS VAL×3	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Kameryn Browne	+0.2
6	2-4	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Jasmyne Mumphrey		+0.2
7	2-5	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Serve err	MS VAL server		+0.3
8	3-5	MS VAL	DILLRD×8	Kill	Ajanae Chatham		+0.2
9	4-5	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Attack err	Taylor Wooten		+0.2
10	5-5	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Bad set	Kameryn Browne		+0.2
11	6-5	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Attack err	Madison Conley	blk Cadence Thomas	+0.2
12	7-5	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Kill	Kristian Thomas	set Makaela Swoopes	+0.1
13	8-5	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Attack err	Aubrie Walker		+0.1
14	9-5	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Makaela Swoopes	+0.1
15	10-5	DILLRD	DILLRD×8	Bad set	Taylor Wooten		+0.1
16	10-6	DILLRD	MS VAL×4	Kill	Madison Conley	set Kameryn Browne	+0.1
17	10-7	MS VAL	MS VAL×4	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Taylor Wilson	+0.1
18	10-8	MS VAL	MS VAL×4	Ace	MS VAL server	aced Team	+0.1
19	10-9	MS VAL	MS VAL×4	Kill	Madison Conley	set Aubrie Walker	+0.2
20	11-9	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Jasmyne Mumphrey	+0.2
21	11-10	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Kameryn Browne	+0.2
22	11-11	MS VAL	MS VAL	Attack err	Cydne Clyton		+0.2
23	12-11	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Makaela Swoopes	set Khara Morton	+0.2
24	12-12	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Aniyah Moore	set Kameryn Browne	+0.2
25	13-12	MS VAL	DILLRD×5	Kill	Nya St.Cyr	set Kendle Wright	+0.2
26	14-12	DILLRD	DILLRD×5	Ace	DILLRD server	aced Taylor Wooten	+0.2
27	15-12	DILLRD	DILLRD×5	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Khara Morton	+0.2
28	16-12	DILLRD	DILLRD×5	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.1
29	17-12	DILLRD	DILLRD×5	Attack err	Kameryn Browne		+0.1
30	17-13	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Kameryn Browne	+0.1
31	18-13	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Makaela Swoopes	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.1
32	18-14	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Kameryn Browne	+0.1
33	19-14	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Khara Morton	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.1
34	19-15	DILLRD	MS VAL×3	Kill	Brooklyn Brunt	set Kameryn Browne	+0.1
35	19-16	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Madison Conley		+0.1
36	19-17	MS VAL	MS VAL×3	Attack err	Cadence Thomas		+0.2
37	20-17	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Neveah Bax	set Ajanae Chatham	+0.2
38	21-17	DILLRD	DILLRD	Ace	DILLRD server	aced Taylor Wilson	+0.2
39	21-18	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Taylor Wooten	set Kameryn Browne	+0.1
40	21-19	MS VAL	MS VAL	Bad set	Nya St.Cyr		+0.2
41	22-19	MS VAL	DILLRD×3	Attack err	Aubrie Walker	blk Nya St.Cyr, Cadence Thomas	+0.3
42	23-19	DILLRD	DILLRD×3	Kill	Nya St.Cyr	set Makaela Swoopes	+0.2
43	24-19	DILLRD	DILLRD×3	Kill	Makaela Swoopes	set Kristian Thomas	+0.1
44	24-20	DILLRD	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Kameryn Browne	+0.0
45	24-21	MS VAL	MS VAL	Kill	Aubrie Walker	set Kameryn Browne	+0.1
46	25-21	MS VAL	DILLRD	Kill	Nya St.Cyr	set Kendle Wright	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Dillard first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.