Final · 4 setsSun, Nov 1, 2026Watch on SWAC TV, YouTube

Grambling def. Mississippi Val. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Grambling 97.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 1, 11:55 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Grambling won at Mississippi Val. 3-1 (17-25, 25-14, 25-15, 25-14) on Sun, Nov 1, 2026. Grambling's Lainy Evans led with 11 kills, and Asialin Powell added 19 digs.

Data through · final Nov 1

Set1234Sets
GRAMB172525253
MS VAL251415141

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Grambling broke it open with a 7–0 run in the second set.

The biggest single-rally swing was 1.4 points, and Mississippi Val.'s high was 12% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Grambling went in as RallyIQ's 97% pick.

GramblingMississippi Val.
  • Break %+15.4 pts
    56.040.6

    On serve: 51/91 against 28/69 (Mississippi Val. sideout 44.0%).

  • Hitting+.125
    .215.090

    52 K / 24 E against 34 K / 22 E.

  • Longest run+1
    76

    Up 16–12 in the second set, Grambling scored 7 straight to make it 23–12. The set finished 25–14.

Mississippi Val. above 50Grambling belowMax swing 1.4%

GramblingMississippi Val.

Aces
Grambling 11·Mississippi Val. 4
Serve err
Grambling 6·Mississippi Val. 5
Blocks
Grambling 1·Mississippi Val. 20 BS · 2 BA vs 0 BS · 4 BA
Digs
Grambling 65·Mississippi Val. 46

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Mississippi Val. above 50 · Grambling below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+1.4% MS VALrally 160 · set 4

Biggest swing: 1.4% to Mississippi Val. — set 3, GRAMB 5-6 MS VAL. Attack error by Angelique Pena. MS VAL win probability 7% → 9%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

GRAMB 97.2%2.8% MS VAL

Grambling wins

3-0
63.4%
3-1
26.8%
3-2
7.1%

Mississippi Val. wins

3-0
0.3%
3-1
0.7%
3-2
1.8%
GRAMB break %
54.4% vs this opp
MS VAL break %
39.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Angelique PenaAttack error+1.4%

    Attack error by Angelique Pena

    Set 3 · GRAMB 5-6 MS VAL · MS VAL 7% → 9%

  2. 02
    Piper NelsonService error+1.3%

    Service error by Piper Nelson

    Set 3 · GRAMB 6-7 MS VAL · MS VAL 8% → 9%

  3. 03
    Lainy EvansKill+1.2%

    Kill by Lainy Evans (set by Alayna Howard)

    Set 3 · GRAMB 8-7 MS VAL · GRAMB 92% → 93%

  4. 04

    Kenya Lucas stuffed by Aubrie Walker & Hannah St. Croix

    Set 3 · GRAMB 5-5 MS VAL · MS VAL 6% → 7%

  5. 05
    Ashlynn HawkinsService error+1.1%

    Service error by Ashlynn Hawkins

    Set 3 · GRAMB 7-7 MS VAL · GRAMB 91% → 92%

  6. 06
    Kenya LucasKill+1.1%

    Kill by Kenya Lucas (set by Alayna Howard)

    Set 3 · GRAMB 6-6 MS VAL · GRAMB 91% → 92%

  7. 07
    Lyric JordanAttack error+1.0%

    Attack error by Lyric Jordan

    Set 3 · GRAMB 3-3 MS VAL · MS VAL 6% → 7%

  8. 08

    Kill by Asialin Powell (set by Kenya Lucas)

    Set 2 · GRAMB 1-0 MS VAL · GRAMB 88% → 89%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
47116.3751422000011
410622.1821003000010
48434.11820152010.58.5
48314.35720020010.58.5
4328.1253800800003
1315.400000120003
4102.5005201900003
4011-1.000101800000
311422.31821213000012
3011-1.000010400001
3013-.333000000000
1000–020000002
1001.000010000001
11011.000000000001
1000–000000000
Team totals5224130.2155211665402192
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410338.1841305100013
47419.15800020010.57.5
47321.190000000007
4003.0001710800001
4001.000000510000
35314.143001000005
45929-.13800030010.55.5
4002.000110000010.50.5
4002.0001021560000
4000–001800000
1005.00000100010.50.5
Team totals3422134.0903045461104268

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 GRAMB · MS VAL 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 GRAMBMS VAL 6

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 7 GRAMBMS VAL 3

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 4 GRAMBMS VAL 3

Set 4

25-14

Longest run 6 GRAMBMS VAL 4

Bars above the line = Mississippi Val. leads, below = Grambling leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Grambling

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%6/10
55%6/11
2
75%6/8
33%3/9
3
40%6/15
60%9/15
4
71%5/7
50%5/10
5
50%4/8
69%9/13
6
60%3/5
56%5/9
All
57%30/53
55%37/67

Mississippi Val.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%6/12
50%4/8
2
75%6/8
14%1/7
3
35%6/17
57%8/14
4
50%5/10
45%5/11
5
36%4/11
29%2/7
6
33%3/9
50%3/6
All
45%30/67
43%23/53

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

160 rallies

#GRAMB-MS VALSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MS VALMS VAL×3KillAniyah Moore+0.4
20-2MS VALMS VAL×3KillTaylor Wootenset Taylor Wilson+0.5
30-3MS VALMS VAL×3AceKameryn Browneaced Amaris Marks+0.6
41-3MS VALGRAMBKillAlayna Howardset Rihianna Brown+0.4
51-4GRAMBMS VALKillBrooklyn Bruntset Kameryn Browne+0.5
62-4MS VALGRAMBServe errAniyah Moore+0.4
72-5GRAMBMS VAL×6KillTaylor Wootenset Kameryn Browne+0.5
82-6MS VALMS VAL×6Attack errAngelique Pena+0.7
92-7MS VALMS VAL×6AceTaylor Wootenaced Amaris Marks+0.7
102-8MS VALMS VAL×6KillBrooklyn Bruntset Kameryn Browne+0.8
112-9MS VALMS VAL×6AceTaylor Wootenaced Lyric Jordan+0.8
122-10MS VALMS VAL×6Attack errLyric Jordan+0.8
133-10MS VALGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Alayna Howard+0.5
143-11GRAMBMS VALAttack errLyric Jordan+0.7
153-12MS VALMS VALAttack errAvri Solik-Fifarek+0.7
164-12MS VALGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+0.4
174-13GRAMBMS VAL×3Serve errLyric Jordan+0.7
184-14MS VALMS VAL×3Attack errAmaris Marks+0.6
194-15MS VALMS VAL×3Attack errPiper Nelson+0.5
205-15MS VALGRAMBServe errTaylor Wilson+0.3
215-16GRAMBMS VALKillAubrie Walkerset Alayna Howard+0.4
226-16MS VALGRAMBKillAmaris Marksset Alayna Howard+0.2
237-16GRAMBGRAMBAttack errTaylor Wooten+0.3
247-17GRAMBMS VALAttack errAlayna Howard+0.5
258-17MS VALGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Alayna Howard+0.3
269-17GRAMBGRAMBAceGrambling+0.4
279-18GRAMBMS VALKillBrooklyn Bruntset Kameryn Browne+0.5
2810-18MS VALGRAMBKillRihianna Brownset Alayna Howard+0.3
2910-19GRAMBMS VALKillHannah St. Croixset Kameryn Browne+0.5
3010-20MS VALMS VALAttack errKenya Lucas+0.4
3111-20MS VALGRAMB×3KillAngelique Penaset Alayna Howard+0.1
3212-20GRAMBGRAMB×3AceGramblingaced Taylor Wilson+0.2
3313-20GRAMBGRAMB×3AceGramblingaced Taylor Wilson+0.3
3413-21GRAMBMS VALKillAubrie Walkerset Kameryn Browne+0.5
3513-22MS VALMS VALKillHannah St. Croixset Erin Mims+0.3
3614-22MS VALGRAMB×3Bad setTaylor Wooten+0.1
3715-22GRAMBGRAMB×3KillAmaris Marksset Angelique Pena+0.2
3816-22GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errHannah St. Croix+0.3
3916-23GRAMBMS VALKillAubrie Walkerset Erin Mims+0.5
4017-23MS VALGRAMBKillAmaris Marksset Alayna Howard+0.2
4117-24GRAMBMS VALKillAubrie Walkerset Erin Mims+0.3
4217-25MS VALMS VALKillAniyah Mooreset Erin Mims+0.1
Set 2
11-0GRAMBGRAMBKillAsialin Powellset Kenya Lucas+1.0
22-0GRAMBGRAMBKillRihianna Brownset Alayna Howard+0.9
32-1GRAMBMS VALKillTaylor Wootenset Kameryn Browne+0.9
43-1MS VALGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Alayna Howard+0.8
53-2GRAMBMS VALKillBrooklyn Bruntset Kameryn Browne+0.9
64-2MS VALGRAMBKillRihianna Brownset Alayna Howard+0.8
75-2GRAMBGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+0.8
85-3GRAMBMS VALServe errRihianna Brown+0.8
96-3MS VALGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Alayna Howard+0.7
106-4GRAMBMS VALAttack errAlayna Howard+0.8
117-4MS VALGRAMB×3KillAngelique Penaset Alayna Howard+0.7
128-4GRAMBGRAMB×3Bad setErin Mims+0.7
139-4GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errAubrie Walker+0.5
149-5GRAMBMS VALBlockedLainy Evansblk Madison Conley, Erin Mims+0.5
159-6MS VALMS VALKillTaylor Wootenset Erin Mims+0.7
1610-6MS VALGRAMB×5KillAngelique Penaset Alayna Howard+0.7
1711-6GRAMBGRAMB×5KillLyric Jordanset Asialin Powell+0.6
1812-6GRAMBGRAMB×5AceGramblingaced Taylor Wilson+0.4
1913-6GRAMBGRAMB×5KillRihianna Brownset Alayna Howard+0.3
2014-6GRAMBGRAMB×5KillLainy Evansset Asialin Powell+0.2
2114-7GRAMBMS VALKillTaylor Wootenset Erin Mims+0.1
2214-8MS VALMS VALAttack errLainy Evans+0.3
2315-8MS VALGRAMBKillAlayna Howardset Lyric Jordan+0.3
2415-9GRAMBMS VALAttack errKenya Lucas+0.2
2516-9MS VALGRAMBServe errMadison Conley+0.3
2616-10GRAMBMS VAL×3KillTaylor Wootenset Kameryn Browne+0.2
2716-11MS VALMS VAL×3AceTaylor Wootenaced Lyric Jordan+0.4
2816-12MS VALMS VAL×3KillBrooklyn Bruntset Kameryn Browne+0.6
2917-12MS VALGRAMB×7KillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+0.6
3018-12GRAMBGRAMB×7Attack errAubrie Walker+0.5
3119-12GRAMBGRAMB×7KillKenya Lucasset Alayna Howard+0.3
3220-12GRAMBGRAMB×7KillAngelique Penaset Alayna Howard+0.1
3321-12GRAMBGRAMB×7KillKenya Lucasset Lainy Evans+0.1
3422-12GRAMBGRAMB×7KillKenya Lucasset Lainy Evans·
3523-12GRAMBGRAMB×7AceGramblingaced Taylor Wilson·
3623-13GRAMBMS VALKillHannah St. Croixset Kameryn Browne·
3724-13MS VALGRAMBBlockedHannah St. Croixblk Lyric Jordan, Angelique Pena·
3824-14GRAMBMS VALKillTaylor Wootenset Erin Mims·
3925-14MS VALGRAMBAttack errAubrie Walker·
Set 3
11-0MS VALGRAMB×3KillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+0.7
22-0GRAMB
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.7
33-0GRAMBGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Asialin Powell+0.6
43-1GRAMBMS VAL×3Serve errLainy Evans+0.6
53-2MS VALMS VAL×3Attack errKenya Lucas+0.8
63-3MS VALMS VAL×3Attack errLyric Jordan+1.0
74-3MS VALGRAMBKillRihianna Brownset Alayna Howard+0.8
85-3GRAMBGRAMBAceGramblingaced Taylor Wilson+0.8
95-4GRAMBMS VAL×3KillHannah St. Croixset Kameryn Browne+0.8
105-5MS VALMS VAL×3BlockedKenya Lucasblk Aubrie Walker, Hannah St. Croix+1.1
115-6MS VALMS VAL×3Attack errAngelique Pena+1.4
126-6MS VALGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Alayna Howard+1.1
136-7GRAMBMS VALServe errPiper Nelson+1.3
147-7MS VALGRAMB×4Serve errAshlynn Hawkins+1.1
158-7GRAMBGRAMB×4KillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+1.2
169-7GRAMBGRAMB×4KillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+1.0
1710-7GRAMBGRAMB×4KillAngelique Penaset Alayna Howard+0.8
1810-8GRAMBMS VALKillHannah St. Croixset Alayna Howard+0.8
1911-8MS VALGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+0.8
2011-9GRAMBMS VALAttack errRihianna Brown+0.8
2112-9MS VALGRAMBKillRihianna Brownset Alayna Howard+0.8
2212-10GRAMBMS VALKillTaylor Wootenset Erin Mims+0.9
2313-10MS VALGRAMB×3KillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+0.8
2414-10GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errTaylor Wooten+0.7
2515-10GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errBrooklyn Brunt+0.6
2615-11GRAMBMS VALServe errLainy Evans+0.5
2716-11MS VALGRAMB×4KillRihianna Brownset Alayna Howard+0.5
2817-11GRAMBGRAMB×4AceGramblingaced Taylor Wilson+0.4
2918-11GRAMBGRAMB×4AceGrambling+0.2
3019-11GRAMBGRAMB×4Attack errHannah St. Croix+0.1
3119-12GRAMBMS VALKillHannah St. Croixset Kameryn Browne+0.1
3220-12MS VALGRAMBAttack errAubrie Walker+0.1
3320-13GRAMBMS VALKillBrooklyn Bruntset Kameryn Browne+0.1
3420-14MS VALMS VALKillAubrie Walkerset Taylor Wooten+0.1
3521-14MS VALGRAMBKillAngelique Penaset Alayna Howard+0.2
3622-14GRAMBGRAMBKillAngelique Penaset Alayna Howard+0.1
3722-15GRAMBMS VALAttack errAngelique Pena·
3823-15MS VALGRAMB×3KillAngelique Penaset Alayna Howard+0.1
3924-15GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errAniyah Moore·
4025-15GRAMBGRAMB×3KillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard·
Set 4
11-0GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errBrooklyn Brunt+0.6
22-0GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errBrooklyn Brunt+0.5
33-0GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errAniyah Moore+0.4
43-1GRAMBMS VALKillAniyah Mooreset Kameryn Browne+0.4
54-1MS VALGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Alayna Howard+0.4
65-1GRAMBGRAMBAttack errTaylor Wooten+0.4
75-2GRAMBMS VALAttack errKenya Lucas+0.3
86-2MS VALGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+0.3
96-3GRAMBMS VAL×4Serve errRihianna Brown+0.3
106-4MS VALMS VAL×4Attack errKenya Lucas+0.5
116-5MS VALMS VAL×4KillTaylor Wootenset Erin Mims+0.7
126-6MS VALMS VAL×4Attack errLyric Jordan+0.8
137-6MS VALGRAMB×3KillKenya Lucasset Alayna Howard+0.7
148-6GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errHannah St. Croix+0.7
159-6GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errAubrie Walker+0.6
169-7GRAMBMS VALKillHannah St. Croixset Erin Mims+0.5
1710-7MS VALGRAMB×6Serve errTaylor Wilson+0.5
1811-7GRAMBGRAMB×6Attack errAubrie Walker+0.5
1912-7GRAMBGRAMB×6Attack errAniyah Moore+0.3
2013-7GRAMBGRAMB×6KillLainy Evansset Angelique Pena+0.3
2114-7GRAMBGRAMB×6Attack errAubrie Walker+0.2
2215-7GRAMBGRAMB×6KillAlayna Howardset Lyric Jordan+0.1
2315-8GRAMBMS VALAttack errLainy Evans+0.1
2415-9MS VALMS VALKillTaylor Wootenset Erin Mims+0.1
2516-9MS VALGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Piper Nelson+0.2
2617-9GRAMBGRAMBAceGramblingaced Dashaun Pinesette+0.1
2717-10GRAMBMS VALKillAniyah Mooreset Erin Mims+0.1
2818-10MS VALGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+0.1
2918-11GRAMBMS VALKillAniyah Mooreset Kameryn Browne+0.1
3018-12MS VALMS VALAttack errJocelyn Pargas+0.1
3119-12MS VALGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Asialin Powell+0.1
3220-12GRAMBGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+0.1
3320-13GRAMBMS VALAttack errLainy Evans·
3421-13MS VALGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Asialin Powell+0.1
3522-13GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errAubrie Walker·
3623-13GRAMBGRAMB×3AceGramblingaced Taylor Wooten·
3723-14GRAMBMS VALKillBrooklyn Bruntset Kameryn Browne·
3824-14MS VALGRAMBKillNile Johnsonset Alayna Howard·
3925-14GRAMBGRAMBAttack errAubrie Walker·

Score shown after each rally, Grambling first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).