Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Princeton def. Penn 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Penn 58.3% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Princeton won at Penn 3-1 (26-24, 25-17, 24-26, 25-23) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Princeton's Ava Harrington led with 15 kills, and Sydney Bold added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set1234Sets
PRINCE262524253
PENN241726231

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Ava Harrington served 5 aces, and Princeton needed every one.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Princeton's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Penn went in at 58% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Princeton 22–24 Penn

    4 of the last 4 rallies went to Princeton, enough to take the set 26–24 and lead 1–0. The match swung to Princeton.

    Princeton 29% → 62%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · Princeton 16–16 Penn

    7 straight Princeton points broke a 16–16 tie and made it 23–16.

    Princeton 63% → 84%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Princeton 10–7 Penn

    8 straight Penn points turned a 7–10 deficit into a 15–10 lead.

    Princeton 83% → 52%

Penn above 50Princeton belowMax swing 15.2%

PrincetonPenn

Sideout %
Princeton 60.4·Penn 54.5
Break %
Princeton 45.5·Penn 39.6
Hitting
Princeton .108·Penn .088
Longest run
Princeton 7·Penn 8

Natalie Surges
11 kills on .089, 12 points; 3 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Penn above 50 · Princeton below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+15.2% PRINCErally 190 · set 4

Biggest swing: 15.2% to Princeton — set 4, PRINCE 25-23 PENN. Kill by Ava Harrington (set by Sydney Draper). PENN win probability 15% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

PRINCE 41.0%59.0% PENN

Princeton wins

3-0
9.1%
3-1
15.0%
3-2
16.9%

Penn wins

3-0
16.7%
3-1
22.5%
3-2
19.8%
PRINCE break %
40.6% vs this opp
PENN break %
42.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ava HarringtonKill+15.2%

    Kill by Ava Harrington (set by Sydney Draper)

    Set 4 · PRINCE 25-23 PENN · PRINCE 85% → 100%

  2. 02
    Ashtyn SimsAttack error+11.1%

    Attack error by Ashtyn Sims

    Set 4 · PRINCE 23-23 PENN · PENN 15% → 26%

  3. 03
    Ava HarringtonKill+10.5%

    Kill by Ava Harrington (set by Sydney Draper)

    Set 4 · PRINCE 24-23 PENN · PRINCE 74% → 85%

  4. 04
    Natalie SurgesKill+10.4%

    Kill by Natalie Surges (set by Sydney Draper)

    Set 1 · PRINCE 26-24 PENN · PRINCE 51% → 62%

  5. 05
    Natalie SurgesKill+10.0%

    Kill by Natalie Surges (set by Sydney Draper)

    Set 1 · PRINCE 25-24 PENN · PRINCE 41% → 51%

  6. 06
    Zada SangerAttack error+9.7%

    Attack error by Zada Sanger

    Set 4 · PRINCE 23-21 PENN · PRINCE 81% → 90%

  7. 07

    Jenna Garner stuffed by Ashley Duckworth & Ava Harrington

    Set 1 · PRINCE 24-24 PENN · PRINCE 31% → 41%

  8. 08
    Ashtyn SimsKill+8.6%

    Kill by Ashtyn Sims (set by Sydney Draper)

    Set 4 · PRINCE 21-20 PENN · PRINCE 71% → 79%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415426.42305750031.521.5
411745.0890109000012
49626.1150014002110
45412.083000200427
4115.00038101100002
1012-.500000000000
46831-.065004100031.57.5
4001.0002011510000
4000–0001200000
2000–001000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4731148.108407146810126100
Pennhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413847.10610012402114
47119.31600010073.510.5
47635.02900330010.57.5
4247-.286102100424
4103.3331803700001
2235-.20000010010.52.5
46114.357000400639
4102.5001501900001
4012-.5003031420000
3000–102310000
2249-.222000200002
2000–011600001
11011.000000000001
1013-.33300010010.50.5
Team totals4229147.088391156470221190

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Princeton vs Penn

Season series · Princeton leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 PRINCE · PENN 8

Set 1

26-24

Longest run 4 PRINCEPENN 4

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 7 PRINCEPENN 4

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 4 PRINCEPENN 5

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 3 PRINCEPENN 8

Bars above the line = Penn leads, below = Princeton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Princeton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%8/11
36%4/11
2
88%7/8
42%5/12
3
88%7/8
46%6/13
4
64%7/11
22%2/9
5
70%7/10
36%4/11
6
35%6/17
68%13/19
All
65%42/65
45%34/75

Penn

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
56%9/16
2
58%7/12
27%3/11
3
54%7/13
13%1/8
4
78%7/9
0%0/7
5
46%6/13
46%6/13
6
38%6/16
40%4/10
All
55%41/75
35%23/65

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

190 rallies

#PRINCE-PENNSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1PENNPENNBlockedErin McNairblk Skylar Greene, Adell Murray+2.4
21-1PENNPRINCEAttack errZada Sanger+1.8
31-2PRINCEPENNAttack errAva Harrington+1.8
42-2PENNPRINCEServe errPenn+1.8
52-3PRINCEPENNServe errPrinceton+1.8
63-3PENNPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+1.8
74-3PRINCEPRINCEAttack errZada Sanger+2.7
84-4PRINCEPENNServe errPrinceton+1.9
95-4PENNPRINCEServe errPenn+2.0
105-5PRINCEPENN×3BlockedNatalie Surgesblk Pilar Kelley, Haley Kerstetter+1.9
115-6PENNPENN×3Attack errAshley Duckworth+2.7
125-7PENNPENN×3Attack errSydney Draper+2.7
136-7PENNPRINCEServe errPenn+1.9
146-8PRINCEPENNKillPilar Kelleyset Reese Stringer+2.0
157-8PENNPRINCEKillNatalie Surgesset Zada Sanger+1.9
168-8PRINCEPRINCEBlockedLauren Van Wieblk Ashtyn Sims, Ashley Duckworth+2.9
178-9PRINCEPENNKillJenna Garnerset Lauren Van Wie+2.1
189-9PENNPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+2.2
199-10PRINCEPENNKillZada Sangerset Nathalie Tsai+2.2
2010-10PENNPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+2.2
2111-10PRINCEPRINCEAceAva Harringtonaced Jenna Garner+3.3
2211-11PRINCEPENNServe errAva Harrington+2.3
2312-11PENNPRINCEKillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+2.4
2412-12PRINCEPENNAttack errShelby Burriss+2.4
2513-12PENNPRINCEServe errPenn+2.5
2614-12PRINCEPRINCEAttack errHaley Kerstetter+3.6
2714-13PRINCEPENNServe errPrinceton+2.4
2815-13PENNPRINCEKillAshley Duckworthset Sydney Draper+2.7
2916-13PRINCEPRINCEBlockedJenna Garnerblk Ashley Duckworth, Ava Harrington+3.5
3016-14PRINCEPENN×4KillPilar Kelleyset Reese Stringer+2.1
3116-15PENNPENN×4Attack errNatalie Surges+3.5
3216-16PENNPENN×4KillJenna Garnerset Lauren Van Wie+4.0
3316-17PENNPENN×4Attack errAshley Duckworth+4.2
3417-17PENNPRINCEServe errPenn+3.0
3517-18PRINCEPENNKillSkylar Greeneset Nathalie Tsai+3.2
3618-18PENNPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+3.2
3719-18PRINCEPRINCEAttack errSkylar Greene+4.9
3819-19PRINCEPENNKillAdell Murrayset Nathalie Tsai+3.4
3919-20PENNPENNAttack errShelby Burriss+5.2
4020-20PENNPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+3.7
4120-21PRINCEPENNServe errPrinceton+4.1
4220-22PENNPENNBlockedShelby Burrissblk Zada Sanger, Haley Kerstetter+5.5
4321-22PENNPRINCEServe errPenn+3.1
4421-23PRINCEPENNKillZada Sangerset Reese Stringer+4.4
4522-23PENNPRINCEAttack errJenna Garner+3.2
4622-24PRINCEPENNKillJenna Garnerset Reese Stringer+5.1
4723-24PENNPRINCE×4Attack errJenna Garner+2.9
4824-24PRINCEPRINCE×4BlockedJenna Garnerblk Ashley Duckworth, Ava Harrington+9.7
4925-24PRINCEPRINCE×4KillNatalie Surgesset Sydney Draper+10.0
5026-24PRINCEPRINCE×4KillNatalie Surgesset Sydney Draper+10.4
Set 2
11-0PRINCEPRINCEAttack errSkylar Greene+2.7
21-1PRINCEPENNKillSkylar Greeneset Nathalie Tsai+1.9
32-1PENNPRINCE×3Serve errPenn+2.0
43-1PRINCEPRINCE×3Attack errSkylar Greene+2.9
54-1PRINCEPRINCE×3Attack errHaley Kerstetter+2.8
64-2PRINCEPENNAttack errAshtyn Sims+1.9
75-2PENNPRINCE×3KillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+2.1
86-2PRINCEPRINCE×3AceAva Harringtonaced Lauren Van Wie+2.7
97-2PRINCEPRINCE×3AceAva Harringtonaced Jenna Garner+2.5
107-3PRINCEPENNServe errAva Harrington+1.5
118-3PENNPRINCEServe errPenn+1.8
128-4PRINCEPENN×4Serve errPrinceton+1.5
138-5PENNPENN×4Attack errShelby Burriss+2.5
148-6PENNPENN×4KillPilar Kelleyset Reese Stringer+2.8
158-7PENNPENN×4KillReese Stringerset Hailey Hilsabeck+3.0
169-7PENNPRINCEKillNatalie Surgesset Sydney Bold+2.4
179-8PRINCEPENNKillJenna Garnerset Adell Murray+2.2
1810-8PENNPRINCEKillNatalie Surgesset Sydney Draper+2.5
1910-9PRINCEPENNBlockedNatalie Surgesblk Ellie Siskin, Adell Murray+2.3
2010-10PENNPENNAttack errAshtyn Sims+3.4
2111-10PENNPRINCEKillNatalie Surgesset Sydney Draper+2.6
2211-11PRINCEPENNKillNathalie Tsaiset Jenna Garner+2.5
2312-11PENNPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+2.7
2412-12PRINCEPENNKillHaley Kerstetterset Nathalie Tsai+2.6
2513-12PENNPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Jenna Garner+2.8
2614-12PRINCEPRINCEKillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+3.9
2714-13PRINCEPENNKillZada Sangerset Reese Stringer+2.6
2815-13PENNPRINCEServe errPenn+2.9
2915-14PRINCEPENNServe errPrinceton+2.7
3015-15PENNPENNKillAdell Murrayset Reese Stringer+4.2
3116-15PENNPRINCEKillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+3.2
3216-16PRINCEPENNBlockedNatalie Surgesblk Pilar Kelley, Adell Murray+3.1
3317-16PENNPRINCE×7KillNatalie Surgesset Sydney Draper+3.4
3418-16PRINCEPRINCE×7Attack errAva Harrington+4.7
3519-16PRINCEPRINCE×7Attack errAdell Murray+4.3
3620-16PRINCEPRINCE×7BlockedJenna Garnerblk Ashley Duckworth, Ava Harrington+3.5
3721-16PRINCEPRINCE×7KillAshley Duckworthset Nathalie Tsai+2.5
3822-16PRINCEPRINCE×7Attack errEllie Siskin+1.4
3923-16PRINCEPRINCE×7KillAshley Duckworthset Sydney Draper+0.6
4023-17PRINCEPENNAttack errAshley Duckworth+0.1
4124-17PENNPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+0.3
4225-17PRINCEPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+0.1
Set 3
11-0PENNPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+1.5
21-1PRINCEPENNKillZada Sangerset Nathalie Tsai+1.4
32-1PENNPRINCEBlockedPilar Kelleyblk Ashtyn Sims, Shelby Burriss+1.5
43-1PRINCEPRINCEAceAva Harringtonaced Jenna Garner+2.1
53-2PRINCEPENNServe errAva Harrington+1.4
64-2PENNPRINCE×3KillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+1.5
75-2PRINCEPRINCE×3Attack errBella Rittenberg+2.1
86-2PRINCEPRINCE×3KillNatalie Surgesset Sydney Draper+2.0
96-3PRINCEPENNKillBella Rittenbergset Reese Stringer+1.3
106-4PENNPENNBlockedShelby Burrissblk Haley Kerstetter, Jenna Garner+2.0
117-4PENNPRINCEServe errPenn+1.6
128-4PRINCEPRINCEAttack errBella Rittenberg+2.1
138-5PRINCEPENNKillHaley Kerstetterset Reese Stringer+1.3
148-6PENNPENNKillJenna Garnerset Haley Kerstetter+2.1
159-6PENNPRINCE×4Serve errPenn+1.7
1610-6PRINCEPRINCE×4KillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+2.2
1711-6PRINCEPRINCE×4Attack errJenna Garner+1.9
1812-6PRINCEPRINCE×4AceSydney Draperaced Hailey Hilsabeck+1.6
1912-7PRINCEPENNBlockedAva Harringtonblk Adell Murray, Jenna Garner+0.9
2012-8PENNPENNKillAdell Murrayset Nathalie Tsai+1.6
2113-8PENNPRINCEServe errPenn+1.4
2214-8PRINCEPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+1.6
2314-9PRINCEPENNAttack errAshtyn Sims+0.8
2415-9PENNPRINCEKillAshley Duckworthset Sydney Draper+1.1
2515-10PRINCEPENNAttack errAva Harrington+0.8
2615-11PENNPENNKillZada Sangerset Nathalie Tsai+1.5
2716-11PENNPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+1.4
2817-11PRINCEPRINCEAceAva Harringtonaced Lauren Van Wie+1.5
2917-12PRINCEPENNServe errAva Harrington+0.7
3018-12PENNPRINCEAttack errZada Sanger+1.1
3118-13PRINCEPENN×5Serve errPrinceton+0.7
3218-14PENNPENN×5KillJenna Garnerset Lauren Van Wie+1.4
3318-15PENNPENN×5Attack errShelby Burriss+1.9
3418-16PENNPENN×5AceElsa McDermottaced Sydney Bold+2.5
3518-17PENNPENN×5KillJenna Garnerset Reese Stringer+3.1
3619-17PENNPRINCEServe errElsa McDermott+2.7
3719-18PRINCEPENN×3KillJenna Garnerset Reese Stringer+2.3
3819-19PENNPENN×3Attack errNatalie Surges+3.9
3919-20PENNPENN×3KillBella Rittenbergset Reese Stringer+4.2
4020-20PENNPRINCEAttack errJenna Garner+3.0
4121-20PRINCEPRINCEAttack errBella Rittenberg+4.8
4221-21PRINCEPENN×3KillJenna Garnerset Reese Stringer+3.3
4321-22PENNPENN×3KillAdell Murrayset Nathalie Tsai+5.3
4421-23PENNPENN×3BlockedNatalie Surgesblk Pilar Kelley, Adell Murray+5.0
4522-23PRINCE
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.5
4623-23PRINCEPRINCEAceNatalie Surgesaced Jenna Garner+6.0
4723-24PRINCEPENNKillJenna Garnerset Nathalie Tsai+5.6
4824-24PENNPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+5.6
4924-25PRINCEPENNKillZada Sangerset Nathalie Tsai+5.6
5024-26PENNPENNBlockedAshtyn Simsblk Pilar Kelley, Haley Kerstetter+7.6
Set 4
10-1PRINCEPENNAttack errAva Harrington+2.5
20-2PENNPENNKillZada Sanger+3.5
31-2PENNPRINCEAttack errHaley Kerstetter+2.4
42-2PRINCEPRINCEServe errPrinceton+3.6
52-3PRINCEPENNServe errPrinceton+2.6
63-3PENNPRINCEKillAshley Duckworthset Sydney Draper+2.7
73-4PRINCEPENNServe errPrinceton+2.7
84-4PENNPRINCEAttack errHaley Kerstetter+2.7
95-4PRINCEPRINCEKillNatalie Surgesset Sydney Bold+4.0
105-5PRINCEPENNServe errPrinceton+2.8
116-5PENNPRINCEKillNatalie Surgesset Sydney Draper+3.0
127-5PRINCEPRINCEBlockedBella Rittenbergblk Ashtyn Sims, Shelby Burriss+4.2
137-6PRINCEPENNKillJenna Garnerset Reese Stringer+2.8
147-7PENNPENNKillJenna Garnerset Nathalie Tsai+4.2
158-7PENNPRINCE×3KillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+3.1
169-7PRINCEPRINCE×3KillSydney Draperset Sydney Draper+4.4
1710-7PRINCEPRINCE×3KillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+4.3
1810-8PRINCEPENN×8KillJenna Garnerset Nathalie Tsai+2.7
1910-9PENNPENN×8Attack errAshtyn Sims+4.3
2010-10PENNPENN×8Attack errNatalie Surges+4.5
2110-11PENNPENN×8KillPilar Kelleyset Nathalie Tsai+4.6
2210-12PENNPENN×8BlockedAshley Duckworthblk Adell Murray, Pilar Kelley+4.5
2310-13PENNPENN×8BlockedAshtyn Simsblk Adell Murray, Pilar Kelley+4.2
2410-14PENNPENN×8KillAdell Murrayset Nathalie Tsai+3.6
2510-15PENNPENN×8Bad setLia Skufca+2.9
2611-15PENNPRINCEAttack errZada Sanger+1.6
2711-16PRINCEPENNKillAdell Murrayset Nathalie Tsai+2.1
2812-16PENNPRINCEServe errPenn+1.6
2912-17PRINCEPENNKillPilar Kelleyset Nathalie Tsai+2.1
3013-17PENNPRINCE×3KillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+1.6
3114-17PRINCEPRINCE×3KillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+3.0
3215-17PRINCEPRINCE×3Attack errJenna Garner+4.0
3315-18PRINCEPENNBad setAva Harrington+3.5
3416-18PENNPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+2.9
3516-19PRINCEPENNKillLauryn Lewisset Reese Stringer+3.7
3617-19PENNPRINCE×3KillNatalie Surgesset Sydney Draper+3.0
3718-19PRINCEPRINCE×3KillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+5.5
3819-19PRINCEPRINCE×3KillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+6.9
3919-20PRINCEPENNKillAdell Murrayset Reese Stringer+5.4
4020-20PENNPRINCEKillShelby Burrissset Sydney Draper+5.4
4121-20PRINCEPRINCEKillAshtyn Simsset Sydney Draper+8.6
4221-21PRINCEPENNAttack errAshtyn Sims+6.0
4322-21PENNPRINCEAttack errZada Sanger+7.1
4423-21PRINCEPRINCEAttack errZada Sanger+9.7
4523-22PRINCEPENNKillPilar Kelleyset Nathalie Tsai+4.9
4623-23PENNPENNAttack errAshtyn Sims+11.1
4724-23PENNPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+10.5
4825-23PRINCEPRINCEKillAva Harringtonset Sydney Draper+15.2

Score shown after each rally, Princeton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).