Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 12, 2026 · Neutral site

Sacramento St. def. Saint Mary's (CA) 3–1

Sacramento St. beat Saint Mary's (CA) 3-1 (21-25, 25-23, 25-23, 25-19) on Sat, Sep 12, 2026 at a neutral site. Victoria Marthaler led Sacramento St. with 23 kills; Saint Mary's (CA)'s Layne Dent had a match-high 24.

Data through · final Sep 12

Set1234Sets
STMARY252323191
SAC ST212525253

Win probability

Sacramento St. above 50 · Saint Mary's (CA) below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+13.4% SAC STrally 186 · set 4

Biggest swing: 13.4% to Sacramento St. — set 3, STMARY 23-25 SAC ST. Attack error by Antonie Kelnárová. SAC ST win probability 62% → 75%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STMARY 50.7%49.3% SAC ST

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0
12.8%
3-1
19.0%
3-2
18.9%

Sacramento St. wins

3-0
12.2%
3-1
18.5%
3-2
18.6%
STMARY break %
43.0% vs this opp
SAC ST break %
42.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Antonie KelnárováAttack error+13.4%

    Attack error by Antonie Kelnárová

    Set 3 · STMARY 23-25 SAC ST · SAC ST 62% → 75%

  2. 02

    Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Caitlin Prior)

    Set 3 · STMARY 23-23 SAC ST · STMARY 38% → 48%

  3. 03
    Mikayla HanerAttack error+10.0%

    Attack error by Mikayla Haner

    Set 3 · STMARY 23-24 SAC ST · SAC ST 52% → 62%

  4. 04

    Kill by Victoria Marthaler (set by Keonahi'ilani Solaita)

    Set 2 · STMARY 23-25 SAC ST · SAC ST 40% → 49%

  5. 05
    Saint Mary's (CA)Ace+7.5%

    Saint Mary's (CA) ace on Victoria Marthaler

    Set 2 · STMARY 23-23 SAC ST · STMARY 60% → 68%

  6. 06
    Makenzie JacksonAttack error+7.5%

    Attack error by Makenzie Jackson

    Set 2 · STMARY 23-24 SAC ST · SAC ST 32% → 40%

  7. 07

    Kill by Keonahi'ilani Solaita (set by Makenna Wiepert)

    Set 3 · STMARY 21-23 SAC ST · SAC ST 60% → 66%

  8. 08
    Skyler GartinKill+6.4%

    Kill by Skyler Gartin

    Set 2 · STMARY 21-23 SAC ST · SAC ST 37% → 43%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4191256.12511613302121
46519.053100100006
4014-.250020900002
4001.000520180010.50.5
3128-.125000100001
1125-.200001000212
4241051.27510040010.524.5
4506.833100000005
4000–1122210001
4000–2121300001
34017.235011200216
1000–000000000
Team totals6032167.1685961373408490
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
423762.25800310100023
4339.000001402447
42111.09100010132.54.5
4002.0003912500423
3126-.16700010010.51.5
1106.167000100001
412240.2501227000014
4000–011820001
4000–2002310000
3207.286000101224
1000–000000000
Team totals4415143.20342496164141196

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Saint Mary's (CA) vs Sacramento St.

Season series · Sacramento St. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 STMARY · SAC ST 4

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 3 STMARYSAC ST 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 5 STMARYSAC ST 4

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 2 STMARYSAC ST 3

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 2 STMARYSAC ST 4

Bars above the line = Sacramento St. leads, below = Saint Mary's (CA) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Saint Mary's (CA)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%9/16
42%5/12
2
60%9/15
25%3/12
3
58%7/12
38%5/13
4
78%7/9
30%3/10
5
70%7/10
30%3/10
6
67%6/9
30%3/10
All
63%45/71
33%22/67

Sacramento St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
47%7/15
2
62%8/13
31%4/13
3
73%8/11
33%4/12
4
70%7/10
42%5/12
5
64%7/11
36%4/11
6
60%6/10
25%2/8
All
67%45/67
37%26/71

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

186 rallies

#STMARY-SAC STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0SAC STSTMARYServe errSacramento St.+1.9
21-1STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.9
32-1SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+1.9
43-1STMARYSTMARYAttack errVictoria Marthaler+2.5
53-2STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.8
64-2SAC STSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Caitlin Prior+1.9
74-3STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.9
85-3SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.0
96-3STMARYSTMARYAttack errVictoria Marthaler+2.5
106-4STMARYSAC ST×4KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.8
116-5SAC STSAC ST×4Bad setCaitlin Prior+2.6
126-6SAC STSAC ST×4Bad setCaitlin Prior+2.8
136-7SAC STSAC ST×4BlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Makenna Wiepert, Nikola Gamlin+2.9
147-7SAC STSTMARYServe errSacramento St.+2.1
158-7STMARYSTMARYAttack errNikola Gamlin+2.9
168-8STMARYSAC STKillCharlee Leppset Makenna Wiepert+2.2
179-8SAC STSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.3
1810-8STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errSkyler Gartin+3.0
1911-8STMARYSTMARY×3BlockedSkyler Gartinblk Antonie Kelnárová, Anaya Thrower+2.8
2011-9STMARYSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+1.9
2111-10SAC STSAC STAttack errAnaya Thrower+2.9
2212-10SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.4
2312-11STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.3
2413-11SAC STSTMARY×3KillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.5
2514-11STMARYSTMARY×3KillLayne Dentset Makenzie Jackson+3.1
2615-11STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errMia Molnar+2.7
2715-12STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.7
2816-12SAC STSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+2.1
2917-12STMARYSTMARYAttack errVictoria Marthaler+2.3
3017-13STMARYSAC STBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Nikola Gamlin+1.3
3117-14SAC STSAC STAceSacramento St.aced Antonie Kelnárová+2.3
3218-14SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.2
3318-15STMARYSAC STAttack errAva Galvan+1.7
3419-15SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.2
3519-16STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.6
3620-16SAC STSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Caitlin Prior+2.3
3721-16STMARYSTMARY×3KillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+2.1
3822-16STMARYSTMARY×3BlockedSkyler Gartinblk Anaya Thrower, Antonie Kelnárová+1.2
3922-17STMARYSAC ST×3Attack errMakenzie Jackson+0.4
4022-18SAC STSAC ST×3AceSacramento St.aced Antonie Kelnárová+1.0
4122-19SAC STSAC ST×3BlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Skyler Gartin, Mia Molnar+1.7
4223-19SAC STSTMARYServe errSacramento St.+2.2
4324-19STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+1.4
4424-20STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.3
4524-21SAC STSAC STBlockedAnaya Throwerblk Skyler Gartin+0.8
4625-21SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+1.4
Set 2
10-1STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.8
20-2SAC STSAC STAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+2.5
31-2SAC STSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+1.8
42-2STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.5
52-3STMARYSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+1.9
63-3SAC STSTMARYBlockedMia Molnarblk Maddie Way, Layne Dent+1.9
73-4STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.0
83-5SAC STSAC STAttack errLayne Dent+2.6
94-5SAC STSTMARY×3Serve errSacramento St.+1.9
105-5STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errVictoria Marthaler+2.7
116-5STMARYSTMARY×3KillLayne Dentset Antonie Kelnárová+2.8
126-6STMARYSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+2.1
136-7SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.8
147-7SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.1
157-8STMARYSAC ST×4KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.2
167-9SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errAntonie Kelnárová+2.9
177-10SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errAva Galvan+2.8
187-11SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errAntonie Kelnárová+2.5
198-11SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+1.7
209-11STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Amy Ito+2.6
219-12STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.2
229-13SAC STSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.6
2310-13SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+1.7
2411-13STMARYSTMARYAttack errKeonahi'ilani Solaita+2.7
2511-14STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.3
2612-14SAC STSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+2.1
2712-15STMARYSAC STAttack errLayne Dent+2.4
2813-15SAC STSTMARYServe errSacramento St.+2.1
2913-16STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.5
3013-17SAC STSAC STBlockedLayne Dentblk Nikola Gamlin, Addy Scheitlin+2.9
3114-17SAC STSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+1.7
3214-18STMARYSAC STAttack errLayne Dent+2.2
3315-18SAC STSTMARY×5KillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+1.7
3416-18STMARYSTMARY×5AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Amy Ito+3.0
3517-18STMARYSTMARY×5KillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+3.7
3618-18STMARYSTMARY×5AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Reese Ampi+4.4
3719-18STMARY
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.8
3819-19STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.6
3920-19SAC STSTMARYAttack errKeonahi'ilani Solaita+3.9
4020-20STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+3.9
4120-21SAC STSAC STBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Skyler Gartin, Makenna Wiepert+5.8
4221-21SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+4.3
4321-22STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+5.0
4421-23SAC STSAC STKillSkyler Gartin+6.4
4522-23SAC STSTMARYKillMaddie Wayset Caitlin Prior+3.5
4623-23STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Victoria Marthaler+7.5
4723-24STMARYSAC STAttack errMakenzie Jackson+7.5
4823-25SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Keonahi'ilani Solaita+10.0
Set 3
11-0SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.5
22-0STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+3.3
32-1STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.4
43-1SAC STSTMARYKillMaddie Wayset Caitlin Prior+2.5
54-1STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)+3.2
64-2STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.3
74-3SAC STSAC STAttack errMakenzie Jackson+3.3
85-3SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.6
95-4STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.5
106-4SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.7
116-5STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.6
127-5SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.8
137-6STMARYSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+2.7
147-7SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.8
158-7SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.9
168-8STMARYSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+2.9
178-9SAC STSAC STBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Addy Scheitlin, Skyler Gartin+4.0
189-9SAC STSTMARYKillMaddie Wayset Caitlin Prior+3.0
199-10STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+3.1
209-11SAC STSAC STAceSacramento St.aced Alayna Pearson+4.1
2110-11SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+3.0
2210-12STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.2
2311-12SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+3.0
2411-13STMARYSAC STAttack errLayne Dent+3.3
2512-13SAC STSTMARYKillLainey Dayset Caitlin Prior+3.1
2613-13STMARYSTMARYKillLainey Dayset Caitlin Prior*+4.6
2713-14STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.6
2814-14SAC STSTMARYServe errSacramento St.+3.6
2915-14STMARYSTMARYAttack errVictoria Marthaler+5.1
3015-15STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+3.8
3116-15SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+4.0
3216-16STMARYSAC ST×3KillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+4.0
3316-17SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errAntonie Kelnárová+5.6
3416-18SAC STSAC ST×3BlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Skyler Gartin+5.6
3517-18SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+3.8
3617-19STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+4.5
3717-20SAC STSAC STAttack errLayne Dent+5.3
3818-20SAC STSTMARYServe errSacramento St.+3.1
3918-21STMARYSAC STKillAddy Scheitlinset Reese Ampi+4.2
4019-21SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+3.0
4120-21STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)+5.8
4220-22STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+5.7
4321-22SAC STSTMARYServe errSacramento St.+4.6
4421-23STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+6.5
4522-23SAC STSTMARYKillLainey Dayset Caitlin Prior+4.7
4623-23STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+10.1
4723-24STMARYSAC STAttack errMikayla Haner+10.0
4823-25SAC STSAC STAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+13.4
Set 4
11-0STMARYSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+3.3
21-1STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.5
32-1SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.5
42-2STMARYSAC ST×3KillAddy Scheitlinset Reese Ampi+2.5
52-3SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errLayne Dent+3.5
62-4SAC STSAC ST×3AceSacramento St.aced Antonie Kelnárová+3.5
73-4SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.5
83-5STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.7
93-6SAC STSAC STAttack errLayne Dent+3.4
104-6SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.4
114-7STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.6
125-7SAC STSTMARYKillLainey Dayset Caitlin Prior+2.4
136-7STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Natalie Peete+3.6
146-8STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.9
157-8SAC STSTMARYServe errSacramento St.+2.7
167-9STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.9
177-10SAC STSAC STBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Makenna Wiepert, Skyler Gartin+3.8
188-10SAC STSTMARYKillMaddie Wayset Caitlin Prior+2.6
198-11STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.9
208-12SAC STSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+3.5
219-12SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.3
229-13STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.7
2310-13SAC STSTMARYKillLainey Dayset Caitlin Prior+2.3
2410-14STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.7
2511-14SAC STSTMARYAttack errVictoria Marthaler+2.3
2612-14STMARYSTMARYAttack errVictoria Marthaler+3.7
2712-15STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.3
2812-16SAC STSAC STAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+3.8
2913-16SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Lainey Day+2.3
3013-17STMARYSAC STBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Makenna Wiepert, Nikola Gamlin+2.9
3114-17SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.3
3214-18STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+3.0
3315-18SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.3
3415-19STMARYSAC STServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+3.0
3516-19SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.2
3617-19STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+4.1
3717-20STMARYSAC STBad setMaddie Way+4.0
3817-21SAC STSAC STBlockedLayne Dentblk Addy Scheitlin+4.1
3918-21SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Layne Dent+2.0
4019-21STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Natalie Peete+4.1
4119-22STMARYSAC ST×4KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+4.4
4219-23SAC STSAC ST×4KillVictoria Marthaler+3.9
4319-24SAC STSAC ST×4KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.9
4419-25SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errLayne Dent+0.5

Score shown after each rally, Saint Mary's (CA) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).