CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 12, 2026

Sacramento St. def. Saint Mary's (CA) 31

(21-25, 25-23, 25-23, 25-19)
Set12*34Sets
STMARY252323191
SAC ST212525253
  • * Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SAC ST above 50 · STMARY below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100SAC STSTMARYBiggest swing +11.2% SAC ST · S3 23-25rally 186 · set 4

Biggest swing: 11.2% to Sacramento St. — set 3, STMARY 23-25 SAC ST. Attack error by Antonie Kelnárová. SAC ST win probability 73%84%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STMARY 30.5%69.5% SAC ST

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0
5.8%
3-1
10.7%
3-2
13.9%

Sacramento St. wins

3-0
22.9%
3-1
26.7%
3-2
19.9%
STMARY break %
41.5% vs this opp
SAC ST break %
45.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01
    Antonie KelnárováAttack error+11.2%

    Attack error by Antonie Kelnárová

    Set 3 · STMARY 23-25 SAC ST · SAC ST 73%84%

  2. 02

    Kill by Victoria Marthaler (set by Keonahi'ilani Solaita)

    Set 2 · STMARY 23-25 SAC ST · SAC ST 55%65%

  3. 03
    Mikayla HanerAttack error+9.3%

    Attack error by Mikayla Haner

    Set 3 · STMARY 23-24 SAC ST · SAC ST 64%73%

  4. 04

    Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Caitlin Prior)

    Set 3 · STMARY 23-23 SAC ST · STMARY 27%36%

  5. 05
    Makenzie JacksonAttack error+8.4%

    Attack error by Makenzie Jackson

    Set 2 · STMARY 23-24 SAC ST · SAC ST 47%55%

  6. 06
    STMARY serverAce+8.4%

    Saint Mary's (CA) ace on Victoria Marthaler

    Set 2 · STMARY 23-23 SAC ST · STMARY 45%53%

  7. 07
    Skyler GartinKill+6.7%

    Kill by Skyler Gartin

    Set 2 · STMARY 21-23 SAC ST · SAC ST 52%59%

  8. 08
    Antonie KelnárováAttack error+6.4%

    Antonie Kelnárová stuffed by Skyler Gartin & Makenna Wiepert

    Set 2 · STMARY 20-21 SAC ST · SAC ST 45%52%

Official NCAA box

Box score

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4191256.12511613302121
46519.053100100006
4014-.250020900002
4001.000520180010.50.5
3128-.125000100001
1125-.200001000212
4241051.27510040010.524.5
4506.833100000005
40001122210001
40002121300001
34017.235011200216
1000000000000
Team totals6032167.1685961373408490
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
423762.25800310100023
4339.000001402447
42111.09100010132.54.5
4002.0003912500423
3126-.16700010010.51.5
1106.167000100001
412240.2501227000014
4000011820001
40002002310000
3207.286000101224
1000000000000
Team totals4415143.20342496164141196

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 STMARY · SAC ST 4

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 3 STMARYSAC ST 4

Set 2*

23-25

Longest run 5 STMARYSAC ST 4

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 2 STMARYSAC ST 3

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 2 STMARYSAC ST 4

Bars above the line = Sacramento St. leads, below = Saint Mary's (CA) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Saint Mary's (CA)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%9/16
42%5/12
2
60%9/15
25%3/12
3
58%7/12
38%5/13
4
78%7/9
30%3/10
5
70%7/10
30%3/10
6
67%6/9
30%3/10
All
63%45/71
33%22/67

Sacramento St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
47%7/15
2
62%8/13
31%4/13
3
73%8/11
33%4/12
4
70%7/10
42%5/12
5
64%7/11
36%4/11
6
60%6/10
25%2/8
All
67%45/67
37%26/71

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

186 rallies

Rally log

#STMARY-SAC STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0SAC STSTMARYServe errSAC ST server+1.7
21-1STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+1.6
32-1SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+1.8
43-1STMARYSTMARYAttack errVictoria Marthaler+2.4
53-2STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+1.7
64-2SAC STSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Caitlin Prior+1.9
74-3STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.7
85-3SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+1.9
96-3STMARYSTMARYAttack errVictoria Marthaler+2.5
106-4STMARYSAC ST×4KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.7
116-5SAC STSAC ST×4Bad setCaitlin Prior+2.4
126-6SAC STSAC ST×4Bad setCaitlin Prior+2.4
136-7SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Makenna Wiepert, Nikola Gamlin+2.4
147-7SAC STSTMARYServe errSAC ST server+1.9
158-7STMARYSTMARYAttack errNikola Gamlin+2.6
168-8STMARYSAC STKillCharlee Leppset Makenna Wiepert+2.0
179-8SAC STSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.1
1810-8STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errSkyler Gartin+2.9
1911-8STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errSkyler Gartinblk Antonie Kelnárová, Anaya Thrower+2.9
2011-9STMARYSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+1.9
2111-10SAC STSAC STAttack errAnaya Thrower+2.7
2212-10SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.4
2312-11STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+2.2
2413-11SAC STSTMARY×3KillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.5
2514-11STMARYSTMARY×3KillLayne Dentset Makenzie Jackson+3.1
2615-11STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errMia Molnar+2.9
2715-12STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.8
2816-12SAC STSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+2.3
2917-12STMARYSTMARYAttack errVictoria Marthaler+2.5
3017-13STMARYSAC STAttack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Nikola Gamlin+1.4
3117-14SAC STSAC STAceSAC ST serveraced Antonie Kelnárová+2.4
3218-14SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.4
3318-15STMARYSAC STAttack errAva Galvan+1.8
3419-15SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.5
3519-16STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+1.8
3620-16SAC STSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Caitlin Prior+2.5
3721-16STMARYSTMARY×3KillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+2.4
3822-16STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errSkyler Gartinblk Anaya Thrower, Antonie Kelnárová+1.5
3922-17STMARYSAC ST×3Attack errMakenzie Jackson+0.5
4022-18SAC STSAC ST×3AceSAC ST serveraced Antonie Kelnárová+1.1
4122-19SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errMakenzie Jacksonblk Skyler Gartin, Mia Molnar+1.9
4223-19SAC STSTMARYServe errSAC ST server+2.5
4324-19STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+1.6
4424-20STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+0.3
4524-21SAC STSAC STAttack errAnaya Throwerblk Skyler Gartin+0.9
4625-21SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+1.6
Set 2
10-1STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+2.0
20-2SAC STSAC STAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+2.5
31-2SAC STSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+1.9
42-2STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.7
52-3STMARYSAC STKillMia Molnarset Makenna Wiepert+2.1
63-3SAC STSTMARYAttack errMia Molnarblk Maddie Way, Layne Dent+2.2
73-4STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.1
83-5SAC STSAC STAttack errLayne Dent+2.7
94-5SAC STSTMARY×3Serve errSAC ST server+2.1
105-5STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errVictoria Marthaler+2.9
116-5STMARYSTMARY×3KillLayne Dentset Antonie Kelnárová+3.2
126-6STMARYSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+2.4
136-7SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.1
147-7SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.4
157-8STMARYSAC ST×4KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.4
167-9SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errAntonie Kelnárová+3.0
177-10SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errAva Galvan+2.7
187-11SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errAntonie Kelnárová+2.4
198-11SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+1.7
209-11STMARYSTMARYAceSTMARY serveraced Amy Ito+2.6
219-12STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+2.2
229-13SAC STSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.5
2310-13SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+1.7
2411-13STMARYSTMARYAttack errKeonahi'ilani Solaita+2.7
2511-14STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.3
2612-14SAC STSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+2.2
2712-15STMARYSAC STAttack errLayne Dent+2.4
2813-15SAC STSTMARYServe errSAC ST server+2.2
2913-16STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.5
3013-17SAC STSAC STAttack errLayne Dentblk Nikola Gamlin, Addy Scheitlin+2.7
3114-17SAC STSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+1.7
3214-18STMARYSAC STAttack errLayne Dent+2.1
3315-18SAC STSTMARY×5KillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+1.7
3416-18STMARYSTMARY×5AceSTMARY serveraced Amy Ito+3.0
3517-18STMARYSTMARY×5KillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+4.0
3618-18STMARYSTMARY×5AceSTMARY serveraced Reese Ampi+5.0
3719-18STMARYSTMARY×5Feed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+5.7
3819-19STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+4.2
3920-19SAC STSTMARYAttack errKeonahi'ilani Solaita+4.8
4020-20STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+4.6
4120-21SAC STSAC STAttack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Skyler Gartin, Makenna Wiepert+6.4
4221-21SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+5.0
4321-22STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+5.6
4421-23SAC STSAC STKillSkyler Gartin+6.7
4522-23SAC STSTMARYKillMaddie Wayset Caitlin Prior+3.8
4623-23STMARYSTMARYAceSTMARY serveraced Victoria Marthaler+8.4
4723-24STMARYSAC STAttack errMakenzie Jackson+8.4
4823-25SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Keonahi'ilani Solaita+10.1
Set 3
11-0SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.4
22-0STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+3.2
32-1STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+2.3
43-1SAC STSTMARYKillMaddie Wayset Caitlin Prior+2.6
54-1STMARYSTMARYAceSTMARY serveraced Team+3.4
64-2STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.4
74-3SAC STSAC STAttack errMakenzie Jackson+3.2
85-3SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.7
95-4STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.5
106-4SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.8
116-5STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.6
127-5SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.9
137-6STMARYSAC STKillNikola Gamlinset Makenna Wiepert+2.6
147-7SAC STSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.5
158-7SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.9
168-8STMARYSAC STKillSkyler Gartinset Makenna Wiepert+2.8
178-9SAC STSAC STAttack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Addy Scheitlin, Skyler Gartin+3.6
189-9SAC STSTMARYKillMaddie Wayset Caitlin Prior+2.8
199-10STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.8
209-11SAC STSAC STAceSAC ST serveraced Alayna Pearson+3.5
2110-11SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.7
2210-12STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.8
2311-12SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.7
2411-13STMARYSAC STAttack errLayne Dent+2.9
2512-13SAC STSTMARYKillLainey Dayset Caitlin Prior+2.8
2613-13STMARYSTMARYKillLainey Day+4.2
2713-14STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.3
2814-14SAC STSTMARYServe errSAC ST server+3.4
2915-14STMARYSTMARYAttack errVictoria Marthaler+4.9
3015-15STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+3.6
3116-15SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+4.0
3216-16STMARYSAC ST×3KillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+3.8
3316-17SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errAntonie Kelnárová+5.1
3416-18SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errMakenzie Jacksonblk Skyler Gartin+4.8
3517-18SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+3.4
3617-19STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+3.9
3717-20SAC STSAC STAttack errLayne Dent+4.3
3818-20SAC STSTMARYServe errSAC ST server+2.7
3918-21STMARYSAC STKillAddy Scheitlinset Reese Ampi+3.5
4019-21SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.6
4120-21STMARYSTMARYAceSTMARY serveraced Team+5.1
4220-22STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+5.0
4321-22SAC STSTMARYServe errSAC ST server+4.1
4421-23STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+5.6
4522-23SAC STSTMARYKillLainey Dayset Caitlin Prior+4.2
4623-23STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+9.3
4723-24STMARYSAC STAttack errMikayla Haner+9.3
4823-25SAC STSAC STAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+11.2
Set 4
11-0STMARYSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+2.7
21-1STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.0
32-1SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.1
42-2STMARYSAC ST×3KillAddy Scheitlinset Reese Ampi+2.0
52-3SAC STSAC ST×3Attack errLayne Dent+2.6
62-4SAC STSAC ST×3AceSAC ST serveraced Antonie Kelnárová+2.5
73-4SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+1.9
83-5STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.9
93-6SAC STSAC STAttack errLayne Dent+2.3
104-6SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+1.7
114-7STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.8
125-7SAC STSTMARYKillLainey Dayset Caitlin Prior+1.8
136-7STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Natalie Peete+2.6
146-8STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.1
157-8SAC STSTMARYServe errSAC ST server+2.1
167-9STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.2
177-10SAC STSAC STAttack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Makenna Wiepert, Skyler Gartin+2.6
188-10SAC STSTMARYKillMaddie Wayset Caitlin Prior+1.9
198-11STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.0
208-12SAC STSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.3
219-12SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+1.6
229-13STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+1.8
2310-13SAC STSTMARYKillLainey Dayset Caitlin Prior+1.6
2410-14STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+1.8
2511-14SAC STSTMARYAttack errVictoria Marthaler+1.6
2612-14STMARYSTMARYAttack errVictoria Marthaler+2.7
2712-15STMARYSAC STKillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+2.3
2812-16SAC STSAC STAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+2.5
2913-16SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Lainey Day+1.6
3013-17STMARYSAC STAttack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Makenna Wiepert, Nikola Gamlin+2.0
3114-17SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+1.6
3214-18STMARYSAC STKillKeonahi'ilani Solaitaset Makenna Wiepert+2.0
3315-18SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+1.6
3415-19STMARYSAC STServe errSTMARY server+2.1
3516-19SAC STSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+1.6
3617-19STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.9
3717-20STMARYSAC STBad setMaddie Way+2.8
3817-21SAC STSAC STAttack errLayne Dentblk Addy Scheitlin+2.8
3918-21SAC STSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Layne Dent+1.4
4019-21STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Natalie Peete+2.9
4119-22STMARYSAC ST×4KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+3.1
4219-23SAC STSAC ST×4KillVictoria Marthaler+2.6
4319-24SAC STSAC ST×4KillVictoria Marthalerset Makenna Wiepert+1.2
4419-25SAC STSAC ST×4Attack errLayne Dent+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Saint Mary's (CA) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.