Saint Mary's (CA) vs LMU (CA) Volleyball: LMU (CA) Wins 3-0

FinalThu, Oct 1, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: LMU (CA) 80.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 1, 7:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

LMU (CA) beat visiting Saint Mary's (CA) 3-0 (25-14, 25-23, 25-20) on Thu, Oct 1, 2026. LMU (CA)'s Maria Tabacuks led with 17 kills.

Data through Nov 3, 6:30 PM CT · final Oct 1

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STMARY	14	23	20	0
LMU	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Maria Tabacuks hit .412 with 17 kills as LMU (CA) rolled past Saint Mary's (CA).

No single rally moved win probability more than 5.5 points. Saint Mary's (CA) peaked at 21% in Set 2. These are the stats that built the gap. LMU (CA) went in as RallyIQ's 80% pick.

Saint Mary's (CA)LMU (CA)

Break %+16.7 pts
27.143.8
32 of 73 on serve vs 16 of 59, so Saint Mary's (CA)'s sideout was 56.2%.
Longest run+2
35
LMU (CA) scored 5 straight in the first set to stretch a 13–7 lead to 18–7. The set finished 25–14.

LMU (CA) above 50Saint Mary's (CA) belowMax swing 5.5%

Saint Mary's (CA)LMU (CA)

Hitting: Saint Mary's (CA) .233·LMU (CA) .281
Aces: Saint Mary's (CA) 1·LMU (CA) 7
Serve err: Saint Mary's (CA) 11·LMU (CA) 6
Blocks: Saint Mary's (CA) 4·LMU (CA) 51 BS · 6 BA vs 2 BS · 6 BA
Digs: Saint Mary's (CA) 31·LMU (CA) 29

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

LMU (CA) above 50 · Saint Mary's (CA) below

Biggest swing: 5.5% to LMU (CA) — set 2, STMARY 23-24 LMU. Attack error by Mikayla Haner. LMU win probability 86% → 92%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STMARY 21.2%78.8% LMU

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0

3.5%

3-1

7.1%

3-2

10.6%

LMU (CA) wins

3-0

30.4%

3-1

29.9%

3-2

18.5%

STMARY break %: 38.7% vs this opp
LMU break %: 44.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Mikayla HanerAttack error+5.5%
Attack error by Mikayla Haner
Set 2 · STMARY 23-24 LMU · LMU 86% → 92%
02
Maria TabacuksKill+4.7%
Kill by Maria Tabacuks (set by Delfina Schuh)
Set 2 · STMARY 23-25 LMU · LMU 92% → 96%
03
Anaya ThrowerKill+3.6%
Kill by Anaya Thrower (set by Sadie White)
Set 2 · STMARY 23-22 LMU · STMARY 13% → 17%
04
Anaya ThrowerAttack error+3.4%
Attack error by Anaya Thrower
Set 2 · STMARY 21-21 LMU · LMU 83% → 87%
05
Saint Mary's (CA)Service error+3.3%
Saint Mary's (CA) service error
Set 2 · STMARY 23-23 LMU · LMU 83% → 86%
06
Layne DentKill+3.0%
Kill by Layne Dent (set by Sadie White)
Set 2 · STMARY 22-21 LMU · STMARY 13% → 16%
07
Antonie KelnárováAttack error+2.8%
Attack error by Antonie Kelnárová
Set 2 · STMARY 22-22 LMU · LMU 84% → 87%
08
Anaya ThrowerKill+2.6%
Kill by Anaya Thrower (set by Sadie White)
Set 2 · STMARY 21-19 LMU · STMARY 16% → 19%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Saint Mary's (CA)away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Makenzie JacksonOPP	3	9	0	15	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9
2Antonie KelnárováOH	3	5	5	24	.000	2	0	3	5	3	0	2	1	6
11Anaya ThrowerMB	3	5	3	9	.222	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	6
10Ava GalvanMB	3	4	3	9	.111	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
21Sadie WhiteS	3	4	0	9	.444	30	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
6Mikayla HanerOH	3	1	1	2	.000	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	0	1
9Layne DentOH	3	8	3	19	.263	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	8
24Alayna PearsonL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	0	1	1	10	0	0	0	0	1
12Natalie PeeteL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	0	0
7Caroline FormankovaOPP	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	15	90	.233	33	1	11	31	7	1	6	4	57

LMU (CA)home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Maria TabacuksOH	3	17	3	34	.412	1	2	0	7	0	1	1	1.5	20.5
23Nicole SchuetzOH	3	9	5	19	.211	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1.5	10.5
20Anya SantracOH	3	5	2	13	.231	0	1	1	5	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
11Zaria ThorntonMB	3	4	2	9	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
6Delfina SchuhS	3	1	0	6	.167	29	2	1	6	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
28Aleksandra StojanovicMB	3	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	3
13Gabriella CascioneL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	1
22Kayla LopezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
24Kyla FirestoneS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
33Leah BurrellOPP	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	13	89	.281	37	7	6	29	1	2	6	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Saint Mary's (CA) vs LMU (CA)

Season series · LMU (CA) leads 1-0

Thu, Oct 1, 2026Saint Mary's (CA) at LMU (CA) · LMU (CA) won 3-0This match
Sat, Nov 7, 2026LMU (CA) at Saint Mary's (CA)Preview →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 STMARY · LMU 5

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 2 STMARYLMU 5

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 STMARYLMU 4

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 2 STMARYLMU 5

Bars above the line = LMU (CA) leads, below = Saint Mary's (CA) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Saint Mary's (CA)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	20%2/10
2	44%8/18	27%3/11
3	54%7/13	11%1/9
4	50%6/12	30%3/10
5	86%6/7	33%3/9
6	67%6/9	40%4/10
All	56%41/73	27%16/59

LMU (CA)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	22%2/9
2	89%8/9	53%9/17
3	67%8/12	47%7/15
4	86%6/7	54%7/13
5	60%6/10	40%4/10
6	75%6/8	33%3/9
All	73%43/59	44%32/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

132 rallies

#	STMARY-LMU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Aleksandra Stojanovic	set Delfina Schuh	+1.2
2	0-2	LMU	LMU	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+1.5
3	1-2	LMU	STMARY	Attack err	Nicole Schuetz		+1.1
4	1-3	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Zaria Thornton	set Delfina Schuh	+1.1
5	1-4	LMU	LMU	Ace	LMU (CA)	aced Antonie Kelnárová	+1.4
6	2-4	LMU	STMARY	Serve err	LMU (CA)		+1.0
7	2-5	STMARY	LMU×4	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Gabriella Cascione	+1.0
8	2-6	LMU	LMU×4	Bad set	Sadie White		+1.2
9	2-7	LMU	LMU×4	Ace	LMU (CA)	aced Layne Dent	+1.0
10	2-8	LMU	LMU×4	Attack err	Layne Dent		+0.8
11	3-8	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+0.5
12	3-9	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Anya Santrac	set Delfina Schuh	+0.6
13	4-9	LMU	STMARY	Serve err	LMU (CA)		+0.5
14	4-10	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Nicole Schuetz	set Delfina Schuh	+0.6
15	4-11	LMU	LMU	Kill	Nicole Schuetz	set Delfina Schuh	+0.6
16	5-11	LMU	STMARY	Serve err	LMU (CA)		+0.4
17	6-11	STMARY	STMARY	Blocked	Aleksandra Stojanovic	blk Ava Galvan, Antonie Kelnárová	+0.7
18	6-12	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Delfina Schuh	+0.6
19	6-13	LMU	LMU	Blocked	Ava Galvan	blk Maria Tabacuks, Aleksandra Stojanovic	+0.6
20	7-13	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Sadie White	set Antonie Kelnárová	+0.3
21	7-14	STMARY	LMU×5	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Delfina Schuh	+0.4
22	7-15	LMU	LMU×5	Ace	LMU (CA)	aced Mikayla Haner	+0.4
23	7-16	LMU	LMU×5	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+0.2
24	7-17	LMU	LMU×5	Attack err	Ava Galvan		+0.1
25	7-18	LMU	LMU×5	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Delfina Schuh	+0.1
26	8-18	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	·
27	8-19	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Delfina Schuh	·
28	9-19	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	·
29	9-20	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Gabriella Cascione	·
30	9-21	LMU	LMU	Kill	Zaria Thornton	set Delfina Schuh	·
31	10-21	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	·
32	10-22	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Nicole Schuetz	set Delfina Schuh	·
33	11-22	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	·
34	12-22	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Nicole Schuetz		·
35	12-23	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Anya Santrac	set Delfina Schuh	·
36	13-23	LMU	STMARY	Attack err	Nicole Schuetz		·
37	13-24	STMARY	LMU	Blocked	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Delfina Schuh, Aleksandra Stojanovic	·
38	14-24	LMU	STMARY	Attack err	Maria Tabacuks		·
39	14-25	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Delfina Schuh	·
Set 2
1	1-0	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+1.0
2	1-1	STMARY	LMU×4	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+1.0
3	1-2	LMU	LMU×4	Blocked	Layne Dent	blk Nicole Schuetz	+1.3
4	1-3	LMU	LMU×4	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Gabriella Cascione	+1.2
5	1-4	LMU	LMU×4	Ace	LMU (CA)	aced Antonie Kelnárová	+1.0
6	2-4	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Antonie Kelnárová	+0.8
7	2-5	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Nicole Schuetz	set Delfina Schuh	+0.8
8	2-6	LMU	LMU	Ace	LMU (CA)	aced Antonie Kelnárová	+0.9
9	3-6	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Mikayla Haner	set Sadie White	+0.6
10	4-6	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+1.1
11	4-7	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Delfina Schuh	+0.8
12	5-7	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+0.8
13	6-7	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+1.3
14	6-8	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Nicole Schuetz	set Delfina Schuh	+1.0
15	7-8	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+1.0
16	8-8	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Layne Dent	+1.6
17	8-9	STMARY	LMU	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+1.1
18	9-9	LMU	STMARY	Serve err	LMU (CA)		+1.2
19	9-10	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Aleksandra Stojanovic	set Delfina Schuh	+1.2
20	9-11	LMU	LMU	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Delfina Schuh	+1.5
21	10-11	LMU	STMARY×3	Attack err	Nicole Schuetz		+1.1
22	11-11	STMARY	STMARY×3	Bad set	Delfina Schuh		+1.7
23	12-11	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Maria Tabacuks		+2.0
24	12-12	STMARY	LMU	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+1.4
25	13-12	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+1.5
26	13-13	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Nicole Schuetz	+1.4
27	14-13	LMU	STMARY×3	Kill	Sadie White		+1.6
28	15-13	STMARY	STMARY×3	Blocked	Anya Santrac	blk Ava Galvan, Sadie White	+2.3
29	16-13	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Anya Santrac		+2.3
30	16-14	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Zaria Thornton	set Delfina Schuh	+1.4
31	17-14	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Sadie White		+1.8
32	17-15	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Nicole Schuetz	set Delfina Schuh	+1.4
33	18-15	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+1.9
34	19-15	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+2.3
35	19-16	STMARY	LMU×3	Kill	Anya Santrac	set Gabriella Cascione	+1.2
36	19-17	LMU	LMU×3	Ace	LMU (CA)	aced Layne Dent	+2.1
37	19-18	LMU	LMU×3	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Gabriella Cascione	+2.5
38	20-18	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+2.4
39	20-19	STMARY	LMU	Attack err	Anaya Thrower		+1.9
40	21-19	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+2.6
41	21-20	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Kyla Firestone	+2.0
42	21-21	LMU	LMU	Attack err	Anaya Thrower		+3.4
43	22-21	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+3.0
44	22-22	STMARY	LMU	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+2.8
45	23-22	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+3.6
46	23-23	STMARY	LMU×3	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+3.3
47	23-24	LMU	LMU×3	Attack err	Mikayla Haner		+5.5
48	23-25	LMU	LMU×3	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Delfina Schuh	+4.7
Set 3
1	1-0	STMARY	STMARY	Ace	Alayna Pearson		+0.7
2	2-0	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+0.8
3	2-1	STMARY	LMU	Bad set	Anaya Thrower		+0.5
4	3-1	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+0.6
5	4-1	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+0.8
6	4-2	STMARY	LMU×4	Kill	Delfina Schuh		+0.6
7	4-3	LMU	LMU×4	Kill	Zaria Thornton	set Delfina Schuh	+0.8
8	4-4	LMU	LMU×4	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Delfina Schuh	+0.8
9	4-5	LMU	LMU×4	Attack err	Layne Dent		+0.7
10	5-5	LMU	STMARY	Attack err	Zaria Thornton		+0.6
11	5-6	STMARY	LMU	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+0.5
12	6-6	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+0.6
13	6-7	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Nicole Schuetz	set Delfina Schuh	+0.6
14	7-7	LMU	STMARY	Attack err	Maria Tabacuks		+0.6
15	7-8	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Anya Santrac	set Delfina Schuh	+0.6
16	8-8	LMU	STMARY	Serve err	LMU (CA)		+0.6
17	9-8	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+0.9
18	9-9	STMARY	LMU	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+0.6
19	10-9	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+0.7
20	10-10	STMARY	LMU	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+0.7
21	11-10	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+0.7
22	11-11	STMARY	LMU	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+0.7
23	12-11	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+0.8
24	13-11	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+1.1
25	13-12	STMARY	LMU	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+0.7
26	13-13	LMU	LMU	Bad set	Antonie Kelnárová		+1.0
27	14-13	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+0.8
28	14-14	STMARY	LMU×5	Attack err	Ava Galvan		+0.8
29	14-15	LMU	LMU×5	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+1.1
30	14-16	LMU	LMU×5	Kill	Nicole Schuetz	set Delfina Schuh	+1.0
31	14-17	LMU	LMU×5	Blocked	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Nicole Schuetz, Anya Santrac	+0.8
32	14-18	LMU	LMU×5	Ace	LMU (CA)		+0.6
33	15-18	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Sadie White		+0.4
34	16-18	STMARY	STMARY	Blocked	Nicole Schuetz	blk Ava Galvan, Antonie Kelnárová	+0.7
35	16-19	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Nicole Schuetz	set Delfina Schuh	+0.6
36	17-19	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+0.6
37	17-20	STMARY	LMU	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+0.7
38	18-20	LMU	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+0.6
39	18-21	STMARY	LMU	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Delfina Schuh	+0.7
40	19-21	LMU	STMARY	Serve err	LMU (CA)		+0.6
41	19-22	STMARY	LMU×3	Kill	Anya Santrac	set Maria Tabacuks	+0.7
42	19-23	LMU	LMU×3	Blocked	Anaya Thrower	blk Maria Tabacuks	+0.6
43	19-24	LMU	LMU×3	Kill	Maria Tabacuks	set Delfina Schuh	+0.3
44	20-24	LMU	STMARY	Blocked	Zaria Thornton	blk Anaya Thrower	·
45	20-25	STMARY	LMU	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Saint Mary's (CA) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

LMU (CA) def. Saint Mary's (CA) 3–0

Maria Tabacuks hit .412 with 17 kills as LMU (CA) rolled past Saint Mary's (CA).