Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Saint Mary's (CA) def. Pepperdine 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Pepperdine 94.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Saint Mary's (CA) won at Pepperdine 3-1 (25-16, 25-15, 23-25, 26-24) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Saint Mary's (CA)'s Antonie Kelnárová led with 22 kills.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set1234Sets
STMARY252523263
PEPPER161525241

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Saint Mary's (CA) needed all of Antonie Kelnárová's 23 points to get by Pepperdine.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Saint Mary's (CA)'s RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, Pepperdine was RallyIQ's 95% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Saint Mary's (CA) 9–6 Pepperdine

    Up 9–6, Saint Mary's (CA) scored 7 straight to make it 16–6.

    Saint Mary's (CA) 28% → 47%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Saint Mary's (CA) 11–3 Pepperdine

    Down 3–11, Pepperdine scored 4 straight to pull within 7–11.

    Saint Mary's (CA) 83% → 66%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Saint Mary's (CA) 23–18 Pepperdine

    Down 18–23, Pepperdine scored 4 straight to pull within 22–23.

    Saint Mary's (CA) 96% → 70%

Pepperdine above 50Saint Mary's (CA) belowMax swing 28.9%

Saint Mary's (CA)Pepperdine

Sideout %
Saint Mary's (CA) 63.0·Pepperdine 51.0
Break %
Saint Mary's (CA) 49.0·Pepperdine 37.0
Hitting
Saint Mary's (CA) .277·Pepperdine .185
Longest run
Saint Mary's (CA) 7·Pepperdine 4

Sadie White
3 kills inside the turning points, 6 K and .750 for the match (9 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Pepperdine above 50 · Saint Mary's (CA) below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+28.9% STMARYrally 179 · set 4

Biggest swing: 28.9% to Saint Mary's (CA) — set 4, STMARY 26-24 PEPPER. Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Sadie White). PEPPER win probability 29% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STMARY 11.2%88.8% PEPPER

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0
1.5%
3-1
3.5%
3-2
6.2%

Pepperdine wins

3-0
42.4%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
14.7%
STMARY break %
37.8% vs this opp
PEPPER break %
47.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Sadie White)

    Set 4 · STMARY 26-24 PEPPER · STMARY 71% → 100%

  2. 02

    Antonie Kelnárová stuffed by Irelynd Lorenzen & Maggie Beauer

    Set 4 · STMARY 24-24 PEPPER · PEPPER 23% → 46%

  3. 03
    Anaya ThrowerKill+16.9%

    Kill by Anaya Thrower (set by Sadie White)

    Set 4 · STMARY 25-24 PEPPER · STMARY 54% → 71%

  4. 04
    PepperdineService error+15.5%

    Pepperdine service error

    Set 4 · STMARY 24-22 PEPPER · STMARY 70% → 86%

  5. 05
    PepperdineAce+11.5%

    Pepperdine ace on Alayna Pearson

    Set 4 · STMARY 23-22 PEPPER · PEPPER 18% → 30%

  6. 06

    Makenzie Jackson stuffed by Irelynd Lorenzen & Mariia Nikol Dvornikova

    Set 4 · STMARY 24-23 PEPPER · PEPPER 14% → 23%

  7. 07
    Ava GalvanKill+7.8%

    Kill by Ava Galvan (set by Sadie White)

    Set 4 · STMARY 21-17 PEPPER · STMARY 78% → 85%

  8. 08
    Maggie BeauerKill+7.7%

    Kill by Maggie Beauer (set by Tristen Raymond)

    Set 3 · STMARY 23-25 PEPPER · PEPPER 54% → 62%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
422749.30620415002123
48119.3680312016415
48618.11100020111.59.5
4608.7504810800429
48517.17600000010.58.5
4113.000010720002
410522.2270002100010
4001.000213300001
4000–301810000
1000–000000000
Team totals6325137.2775569477214999
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
47116.37500100195.512.5
47630.03310020031.58.5
48122.31800021010.58.5
46215.26710200052.58.5
43031.0002920100073.58.5
46516.063000300428
4002.000031110003
4000–011510001
4000–3151010001
3134-.500101100001
3000–000000000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals3818108.1853571134612915.580

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Saint Mary's (CA) vs Pepperdine

Season series · Saint Mary's (CA) leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 STMARY · PEPPER 4

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 5 STMARYPEPPER 2

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 7 STMARYPEPPER 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 STMARYPEPPER 4

Set 4

26-24

Longest run 3 STMARYPEPPER 4

Bars above the line = Pepperdine leads, below = Saint Mary's (CA) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Saint Mary's (CA)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%8/17
45%5/11
2
57%8/14
53%9/17
3
75%6/8
54%7/13
4
100%5/5
60%9/15
5
33%5/15
50%5/10
6
83%5/6
29%2/7
All
57%37/65
51%37/73

Pepperdine

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%8/17
56%9/16
2
43%6/14
38%5/13
3
40%6/15
25%2/8
4
60%6/10
25%2/8
5
56%5/9
58%7/12
6
63%5/8
38%3/8
All
49%36/73
43%28/65

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

179 rallies

#STMARY-PEPPERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1STMARYPEPPERKillMariia Nikol Dvornikovaset Tristen Raymond+0.4
21-1PEPPERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.5
31-2STMARYPEPPERKillMaggie Beauerset Tristen Raymond+0.4
42-2PEPPERSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+0.5
52-3STMARYPEPPERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.5
63-3PEPPERSTMARYKillMikayla Hanerset Sadie White+0.5
74-3STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+0.8
8–95-4STMARY · PEPPER
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
106-4STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.0
116-5STMARYPEPPERKillElla Piskorzset Tristen Raymond+0.7
127-5PEPPERSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+0.8
137-6STMARYPEPPERKillIrelynd Lorenzenset Tristen Raymond+0.7
148-6PEPPERSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+0.9
158-7STMARYPEPPERBlockedAva Galvanblk Irelynd Lorenzen+0.7
168-8PEPPERPEPPERAcePepperdineaced Mikayla Haner+0.9
179-8PEPPERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.8
1810-8STMARYSTMARYBlockedMaggie Beauerblk Anaya Thrower, Antonie Kelnárová+1.2
1910-9STMARYPEPPERKillMaggie Beauerset Tristen Raymond+0.8
2011-9PEPPERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.0
2111-10STMARYPEPPERKillChloe Pravednikovset Tristen Raymond+0.8
2212-10PEPPERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.0
2313-10STMARYSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+1.5
2413-11STMARYPEPPERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.9
2514-11PEPPERSTMARY×5KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.2
2615-11STMARYSTMARY×5KillLayne Dentset Layne Dent+1.6
2716-11STMARYSTMARY×5KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.5
2817-11STMARYSTMARY×5AceSaint Mary's (CA)+1.4
2918-11STMARYSTMARY×5AceSaint Mary's (CA)+1.1
3018-12STMARYPEPPERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.5
3119-12PEPPERSTMARY×4Serve errPepperdine+0.8
3220-12STMARYSTMARY×4Attack errMariia Nikol Dvornikova+0.7
3321-12STMARYSTMARY×4BlockedMariia Nikol Dvornikovablk Makenzie Jackson+0.4
3422-12STMARYSTMARY×4AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Charis Kai+0.2
3522-13STMARYPEPPERKillMariia Nikol Dvornikovaset Laine Briggs·
3623-13PEPPERSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+0.1
3723-14STMARYPEPPERKillIrelynd Lorenzenset Tristen Raymond·
3823-15PEPPERPEPPERAttack errMakenzie Jackson+0.1
3924-15PEPPERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.1
4024-16STMARYPEPPERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)·
4125-16PEPPERSTMARYServe errPepperdine·
Set 2
10-1PEPPERPEPPERAcePepperdine+1.5
20-2PEPPERPEPPERKillIrelynd Lorenzenset Tristen Raymond+1.3
31-2PEPPERSTMARY×4KillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.1
42-2STMARYSTMARY×4BlockedMaggie Beauerblk Anaya Thrower+1.7
53-2STMARYSTMARY×4KillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+2.0
64-2STMARYSTMARY×4BlockedMariia Nikol Dvornikovablk Anaya Thrower, Antonie Kelnárová+2.4
74-3STMARYPEPPER×3BlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Irelynd Lorenzen, Maggie Beauer+1.6
84-4PEPPERPEPPER×3AcePepperdineaced Mikayla Haner+2.0
94-5PEPPERPEPPER×3Attack errAnaya Thrower+1.8
105-5PEPPERSTMARY×5Attack errIrelynd Lorenzen+1.5
116-5STMARYSTMARY×5BlockedChloe Pravednikovblk Sadie White, Anaya Thrower+2.3
127-5STMARYSTMARY×5KillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+2.7
138-5STMARYSTMARY×5KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+3.0
149-5STMARYSTMARY×5AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Ryan Gilhooly+3.3
159-6STMARYPEPPERKillIva Popovicset Tristen Raymond+2.0
1610-6PEPPERSTMARY×7KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.6
1711-6STMARYSTMARY×7Attack errElla Piskorz+3.5
1812-6STMARYSTMARY×7KillLayne Dentset Alayna Pearson+3.4
1913-6STMARYSTMARY×7KillSadie White+3.1
2014-6STMARYSTMARY×7Attack errIva Popovic+2.7
2115-6STMARYSTMARY×7KillSadie White+2.2
2216-6STMARYSTMARY×7KillSadie Whiteset Antonie Kelnárová+1.6
2316-7STMARYPEPPERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.7
2417-7PEPPERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.2
2517-8STMARYPEPPERKillTristen Raymondset Mariia Nikol Dvornikova+0.6
2617-9PEPPERPEPPERBad setSadie White+1.1
2718-9PEPPERSTMARYServe errPepperdine+1.4
2819-9STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.1
2919-10STMARYPEPPERKillElla Piskorzset Tristen Raymond+0.4
3020-10PEPPERSTMARY×3KillAva Galvanset Sadie White+0.7
3121-10STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errMariia Nikol Dvornikova+0.5
3222-10STMARYSTMARY×3AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Laine Briggs+0.2
3322-11STMARYPEPPER×3KillMariia Nikol Dvornikovaset Tristen Raymond·
3422-12PEPPERPEPPER×3KillIrelynd Lorenzenset Tristen Raymond+0.1
3522-13PEPPERPEPPER×3KillMaggie Beauerset Sadie White+0.2
3623-13PEPPERSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+0.3
3724-13STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+0.1
3824-14STMARYPEPPERBlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Irelynd Lorenzen, Maggie Beauer·
3924-15PEPPERPEPPERAcePepperdine·
4025-15PEPPERSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White·
Set 3
11-0STMARYSTMARYKillAva Galvan+3.0
22-0STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+3.5
32-1STMARYPEPPERAttack errMikayla Haner+2.3
42-2PEPPERPEPPERKillMariia Nikol Dvornikovaset Tristen Raymond+2.9
53-2PEPPERSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+2.5
64-2STMARYSTMARYBlockedMariia Nikol Dvornikovablk Anaya Thrower, Makenzie Jackson+3.8
74-3STMARYPEPPERBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Tristen Raymond, Irelynd Lorenzen+2.5
85-3PEPPERSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+3.1
95-4STMARYPEPPERKillIrelynd Lorenzenset Tristen Raymond+2.6
106-4PEPPERSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Antonie Kelnárová+3.2
116-5STMARYPEPPERKillMaggie Beauerset Tristen Raymond+2.7
127-5PEPPERSTMARY×3Serve errPepperdine+3.3
138-5STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errMaggie Beauer+4.8
149-5STMARYSTMARY×3BlockedIva Popovicblk Ava Galvan, Sadie White+5.2
159-6STMARYPEPPER×4KillChloe Pravednikovset Laine Briggs+3.1
169-7PEPPERPEPPER×4AcePepperdineaced Layne Dent+4.3
179-8PEPPERPEPPER×4Attack errLayne Dent+4.2
189-9PEPPERPEPPER×4Attack errAntonie Kelnárová+3.9
1910-9PEPPERSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+3.4
2010-10STMARYPEPPERBlockedLayne Dentblk Ella Piskorz, Tristen Raymond+3.0
2110-11PEPPERPEPPERBlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Ella Piskorz, Tristen Raymond+3.7
2211-11PEPPERSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+3.1
2311-12STMARYPEPPERAttack errAva Galvan+2.8
2412-12PEPPERSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+3.3
2513-12STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+5.1
2613-13STMARYPEPPERKillTristen Raymondset Tristen Raymond+3.5
2713-14PEPPERPEPPERAcePepperdine+4.4
2814-14PEPPERSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+3.6
2915-14STMARYSTMARYBlockedMaggie Beauerblk Sadie White, Anaya Thrower+5.8
3015-15STMARYPEPPER×3Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)+3.9
3115-16PEPPERPEPPER×3BlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Maggie Beauer, Irelynd Lorenzen+5.0
3215-17PEPPERPEPPER×3KillMaggie Beauerset Laine Briggs+4.3
3316-17PEPPERSTMARYServe errPepperdine+3.2
3417-17STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+5.7
3517-18STMARYPEPPERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+4.2
3618-18PEPPERSTMARYServe errPepperdine+4.8
3718-19STMARYPEPPERKillChloe Pravednikovset Ella Piskorz+4.6
3819-19PEPPERSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+5.2
3919-20STMARYPEPPERKillElla Piskorzset Tristen Raymond+5.1
4020-20PEPPERSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+5.7
4120-21STMARYPEPPERKillTristen Raymond+5.7
4221-21PEPPERSTMARYServe errPepperdine+6.3
4321-22STMARYPEPPERKillMariia Nikol Dvornikovaset Tristen Raymond+6.6
4421-23PEPPERPEPPERBlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Irelynd Lorenzen, Mariia Nikol Dvornikova+7.4
4522-23PEPPERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+4.3
4622-24STMARYPEPPERKillIrelynd Lorenzenset Tristen Raymond+6.2
4723-24PEPPERSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+3.8
4823-25STMARYPEPPERKillMaggie Beauerset Tristen Raymond+7.7
Set 4
11-0PEPPERSTMARY×3Serve errPepperdine+2.9
22-0STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Irelynd Lorenzen+4.3
33-0STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errMariia Nikol Dvornikova+4.9
43-1STMARYPEPPERKillMariia Nikol Dvornikovaset Tristen Raymond+3.2
54-1PEPPERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+4.0
65-1STMARYSTMARYBlockedMaggie Beauerblk Anaya Thrower, Sadie White+5.6
75-2STMARYPEPPERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+3.5
86-2PEPPERSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+4.5
97-2STMARYSTMARY×3KillLayne Dentset Alayna Pearson+6.1
108-2STMARYSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+6.2
118-3STMARYPEPPERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+3.5
129-3PEPPERSTMARY×3KillLayne Dentset Sadie White+4.9
1310-3STMARYSTMARY×3KillSadie White+6.0
1411-3STMARYSTMARY×3Bad setTristen Raymond+5.5
1511-4STMARYPEPPER×4KillChloe Pravednikovset Tristen Raymond+2.8
1611-5PEPPERPEPPER×4BlockedAva Galvanblk Ella Piskorz, Chloe Pravednikov+4.4
1711-6PEPPERPEPPER×4BlockedLayne Dentblk Ella Piskorz, Tristen Raymond+4.9
1811-7PEPPERPEPPER×4BlockedLayne Dentblk Ella Piskorz, Tristen Raymond+5.3
1912-7PEPPERSTMARYServe errPepperdine+5.5
2012-8STMARYPEPPERKillElla Piskorzset Tristen Raymond+3.9
2113-8PEPPERSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+5.6
2214-8STMARYSTMARYAttack errElla Piskorz+6.8
2314-9STMARYPEPPERAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+3.5
2414-10PEPPERPEPPERAttack errAva Galvan+5.6
2515-10PEPPERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+5.9
2616-10STMARYSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Tristen Raymond+6.9
2716-11STMARYPEPPERKillIrelynd Lorenzenset Tristen Raymond+3.4
2817-11PEPPERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+5.4
2917-12STMARYPEPPERBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Mariia Nikol Dvornikova, Irelynd Lorenzen+3.3
3018-12PEPPERSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Natalie Peete+5.3
3118-13STMARYPEPPERKillChloe Pravednikovset Tristen Raymond+3.1
3219-13PEPPERSTMARYServe errPepperdine+5.2
3320-13STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Chloe Pravednikov+5.0
3420-14STMARYPEPPER×4KillChloe Pravednikovset Tristen Raymond+1.8
3520-15PEPPERPEPPER×4BlockedLayne Dentblk Ella Piskorz, Tristen Raymond+3.6
3620-16PEPPERPEPPER×4Attack errAva Galvan+4.9
3720-17PEPPERPEPPER×4KillElla Piskorzset Tristen Raymond+6.4
3821-17PEPPERSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+7.8
3922-17STMARYSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+7.6
4022-18STMARYPEPPERKillChloe Pravednikovset Tristen Raymond+2.7
4123-18PEPPERSTMARYAttack errIva Popovic+5.4
4223-19STMARYPEPPER×4KillElla Piskorzset Tristen Raymond+1.9
4323-20PEPPERPEPPER×4KillMariia Nikol Dvornikovaset Iva Popovic+4.6
4423-21PEPPERPEPPER×4BlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Irelynd Lorenzen, Tristen Raymond+7.5
4523-22PEPPERPEPPER×4AcePepperdineaced Alayna Pearson+11.5
4624-22PEPPERSTMARYServe errPepperdine+15.5
4724-23STMARYPEPPERBlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Irelynd Lorenzen, Mariia Nikol Dvornikova+8.3
4824-24PEPPERPEPPERBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Irelynd Lorenzen, Maggie Beauer+23.2
4925-24PEPPERSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+16.9
5026-24STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+28.9

Score shown after each rally, Saint Mary's (CA) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).