Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026

New Haven def. Central Conn. St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: New Haven 66.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

New Haven beat visiting Central Conn. St. 3-1 (25-10, 25-16, 16-25, 25-19) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. New Haven's Lauren MacKellar led with 14 kills, and Payton Malinoski added 17 digs.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
C CONN101625191
NEWHAV252516253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

New Haven held Central Conn. St. to .094 hitting.

No single rally moved win probability more than 2.5 points. Central Conn. St. peaked at 31% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Pre-match, RallyIQ had New Haven at 67%.

Central Conn. St.New Haven
  • Break %+13.0 pts
    43.756.7

    On serve: 51/90 against 31/71 (Central Conn. St. sideout 43.3%).

  • Hitting+.113
    .094.207

    44 kills, 20 errors vs 35 kills, 24 errors.

  • Longest run+2
    46

    New Haven scored 6 straight in the first set to open the set 6–0. That set ended 25–10.

New Haven above 50Central Conn. St. belowMax swing 2.5%

Central Conn. St.New Haven

Aces
Central Conn. St. 8·New Haven 11
Serve err
Central Conn. St. 10·New Haven 6
Blocks
Central Conn. St. 9·New Haven 112 BS · 14 BA vs 6 BS · 10 BA
Digs
Central Conn. St. 36·New Haven 47

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

New Haven above 50 · Central Conn. St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.5% NEWHAVrally 161 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.5% to New Haven — set 4, C CONN 0-2 NEWHAV. Hanley Schmidt stuffed by Zaira Kearns & Josie Foster. NEWHAV win probability 85% → 88%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

C CONN 32.1%67.9% NEWHAV

Central Conn. St. wins

3-0
6.3%
3-1
11.4%
3-2
14.4%

New Haven wins

3-0
21.9%
3-1
26.1%
3-2
20.0%
C CONN break %
42.4% vs this opp
NEWHAV break %
46.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Hanley Schmidt stuffed by Zaira Kearns & Josie Foster

    Set 4 · C CONN 0-2 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 85% → 88%

  2. 02
    New HavenAce+2.4%

    New Haven ace

    Set 4 · C CONN 2-5 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 88% → 90%

  3. 03
    New HavenAce+2.2%

    New Haven ace

    Set 4 · C CONN 2-6 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 90% → 92%

  4. 04
    New HavenAce+2.1%

    New Haven ace on Meg Berkland

    Set 1 · C CONN 0-1 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 67% → 69%

  5. 05
    Central Conn. St.Ace+2.1%

    Central Conn. St. ace

    Set 4 · C CONN 5-8 NEWHAV · C CONN 7% → 9%

  6. 06
    Josie FosterKill+2.0%

    Kill by Josie Foster (set by Zaira Kearns)

    Set 2 · C CONN 5-6 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 80% → 82%

  7. 07
    Lauren MacKellarAttack error+2.0%

    Attack error by Lauren MacKellar

    Set 2 · C CONN 3-1 NEWHAV · C CONN 21% → 23%

  8. 08
    Hanley SchmidtAttack error+2.0%

    Attack error by Hanley Schmidt

    Set 1 · C CONN 0-2 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 69% → 71%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411523.26100030031.512.5
410933.0300126002112
44215.1330431014311
4106.167310040010.51.5
4000–100430000
2128-.125000000001
48527.11100021111.59.5
4001.0001351000003
4000–000620000
2014-.25000000031.51.5
Team totals3524117.094338103611214970
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412121.5240401024420
414934.14700280111.515.5
47521.095000111229
4218.1253833400216
4219.11100010111.53.5
4000–021500002
47218.278000501018
4004.0003101720001
4011-1.000010500001
Team totals4420116.207411164786101191

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Central Conn. St. vs New Haven

Season series · New Haven leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 C CONN · NEWHAV 6

Set 1

10-25

Longest run 3 C CONNNEWHAV 6

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 3 C CONNNEWHAV 6

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 4 C CONNNEWHAV 3

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 4 C CONNNEWHAV 4

Bars above the line = New Haven leads, below = Central Conn. St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Central Conn. St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
40%8/20
14%1/7
2
47%8/17
56%10/18
3
47%7/15
38%5/13
4
40%6/15
36%4/11
5
67%6/9
33%3/9
6
29%4/14
62%8/13
All
43%39/90
44%31/71

New Haven

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
67%12/18
2
53%8/15
50%8/16
3
54%7/13
56%9/16
4
78%7/9
53%8/15
5
42%5/12
57%8/14
6
63%5/8
55%6/11
All
56%40/71
57%51/90

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

161 rallies

#C CONN-NEWHAVSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1NEWHAVNEWHAV×6AceNew Havenaced Meg Berkland+2.1
20-2NEWHAVNEWHAV×6Attack errHanley Schmidt+2.0
30-3NEWHAVNEWHAV×6AceNew Havenaced Meg Berkland+1.9
40-4NEWHAVNEWHAV×6AceNew Haven+1.7
50-5NEWHAVNEWHAV×6Attack errHanley Schmidt+1.5
60-6NEWHAVNEWHAV×6KillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+1.3
71-6NEWHAVC CONN×3KillHanley Schmidtset Isabella Aviles+0.9
82-6C CONNC CONN×3KillOlivia Kecklerset Isabella Aviles+1.4
93-6C CONNC CONN×3KillIsabella Avilesset Alejandra Mejia+1.7
103-7C CONNNEWHAVAttack errCullen Winter+1.4
114-7NEWHAVC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Isabella Aviles+1.3
124-8C CONNNEWHAV×4KillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+1.5
134-9NEWHAVNEWHAV×4KillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+1.6
144-10NEWHAVNEWHAV×4KillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+1.3
154-11NEWHAVNEWHAV×4KillJosie Foster+1.0
165-11NEWHAVC CONNKillMadison Fulgencioset Isabella Aviles+0.7
175-12C CONNNEWHAV×3Serve errCentral Conn. St.+0.8
185-13NEWHAVNEWHAV×3BlockedAdele Macerblk Josie Foster, Zaira Kearns+0.8
195-14NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns+0.5
206-14NEWHAVC CONNKillMadison Fulgencioset Isabella Aviles+0.3
216-15C CONNNEWHAVKillZaira Kearns+0.4
226-16NEWHAVNEWHAVBlockedMadison Fulgencioblk Josie Foster, Marley Alefaio+0.3
237-16NEWHAVC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Isabella Aviles+0.2
247-17C CONNNEWHAV×5KillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+0.2
257-18NEWHAVNEWHAV×5KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+0.2
267-19NEWHAVNEWHAV×5Attack errOlivia Keckler+0.1
277-20NEWHAVNEWHAV×5Attack errOlivia Keckler·
287-21NEWHAVNEWHAV×5AceNew Haven·
298-21NEWHAVC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Isabella Aviles·
308-22C CONNNEWHAVServe errCentral Conn. St.·
319-22NEWHAVC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Isabella Aviles·
329-23C CONNNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns·
339-24NEWHAVNEWHAVBlockedOlivia Kecklerblk Lauren MacKellar·
3410-24NEWHAVC CONNAttack errLauren MacKellar·
3510-25C CONNNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns·
Set 2
11-0C CONNC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Isabella Aviles+1.9
21-1C CONNNEWHAVAttack errCullen Winter+1.5
32-1NEWHAVC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Isabella Aviles+1.6
43-1C CONNC CONNAttack errLauren MacKellar+2.0
53-2C CONNNEWHAVServe errCentral Conn. St.+1.5
63-3NEWHAVNEWHAVAceNew Havenaced Gabriella Burdier+2.0
74-3NEWHAVC CONNBad setQuinn Yenshaw+1.6
84-4C CONNNEWHAVServe errCentral Conn. St.+1.6
95-4NEWHAVC CONNAttack errLauren MacKellar+1.7
105-5C CONNNEWHAV×6KillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+1.6
115-6NEWHAVNEWHAV×6KillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+2.0
125-7NEWHAVNEWHAV×6AceNew Haven+2.0
135-8NEWHAVNEWHAV×6KillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+1.8
145-9NEWHAVNEWHAV×6AceNew Havenaced Madison Fulgencio+1.6
155-10NEWHAVNEWHAV×6KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+1.4
166-10NEWHAVC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Isabella Aviles+1.0
176-11C CONNNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+1.1
187-11NEWHAVC CONN×3KillHanley Schmidtset Isabella Aviles+1.0
198-11C CONNC CONN×3AceCentral Conn. St.aced Marley Alefaio+1.5
209-11C CONNC CONN×3BlockedMarley Alefaioblk Cullen Winter, Hanley Schmidt+1.8
219-12C CONNNEWHAVKillKira Lynchset Zaira Kearns+1.6
229-13NEWHAVNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Payton Malinoski+1.8
2310-13NEWHAVC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Isabella Aviles+1.2
2410-14C CONNNEWHAV×3BlockedOlivia Kecklerblk Marley Alefaio, Kira Lynch+1.4
2510-15NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillLauren MacKellarset Payton Malinoski+1.5
2610-16NEWHAVNEWHAV×3AceNew Havenaced Meg Berkland+1.1
2711-16NEWHAVC CONNKillCullen Winterset Isabella Aviles+0.7
2812-16C CONNC CONNKillCullen Winterset Isabella Aviles+1.2
2912-17C CONNNEWHAV×5KillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns+1.2
3012-18NEWHAVNEWHAV×5KillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+1.1
3112-19NEWHAVNEWHAV×5KillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+0.7
3212-20NEWHAVNEWHAV×5Attack errOlivia Keckler+0.4
3312-21NEWHAVNEWHAV×5Attack errMadison Fulgencio+0.2
3413-21NEWHAVC CONN×3Attack errLauren MacKellar+0.1
3514-21C CONNC CONN×3AceCentral Conn. St.aced Payton Malinoski+0.2
3615-21C CONNC CONN×3AceCentral Conn. St.+0.3
3715-22C CONNNEWHAV×3KillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+0.4
3815-23NEWHAVNEWHAV×3Attack errAdele Macer+0.2
3915-24NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+0.1
4016-24NEWHAVC CONNKillAdele Macerset Isabella Aviles·
4116-25C CONNNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns·
Set 3
11-0NEWHAVC CONNServe errNew Haven+0.9
22-0C CONNC CONNAttack errLauren MacKellar+1.1
32-1C CONNNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+0.8
43-1NEWHAVC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Isabella Aviles+0.9
54-1C CONNC CONNAceCentral Conn. St.+1.2
64-2C CONNNEWHAVServe errCentral Conn. St.+0.8
75-2NEWHAVC CONN×3KillOlivia Kecklerset Isabella Aviles+0.9
86-2C CONNC CONN×3BlockedLauren MacKellarblk Cullen Winter, Olivia Keckler+1.2
97-2C CONNC CONN×3Attack errQuinn Yenshaw+1.1
107-3C CONNNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+0.7
118-3NEWHAVC CONNKillCullen Winterset Isabella Aviles+0.9
129-3C CONNC CONNKillMadison Fulgencioset Isabella Aviles+1.0
139-4C CONNNEWHAVKillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+0.6
1410-4NEWHAVC CONN×4KillMadison Fulgencioset Payton Malinoski+0.8
1511-4C CONNC CONN×4Attack errMarley Alefaio+0.9
1612-4C CONNC CONN×4Attack errMarley Alefaio+0.7
1713-4C CONNC CONN×4BlockedMarley Alefaioblk Isabella Aviles, Valeria Torres+0.5
1813-5C CONNNEWHAVKillZaira Kearns+0.3
1913-6NEWHAVNEWHAVAceNew Havenaced Gabriella Burdier+0.5
2014-6NEWHAVC CONNKillMadison Fulgencioset Isabella Aviles+0.5
2114-7C CONNNEWHAVBlockedMadison Fulgencioblk Kira Lynch+0.4
2214-8NEWHAVNEWHAVAttack errHanley Schmidt+0.6
2315-8NEWHAVC CONN×3Serve errNew Haven+0.6
2416-8C CONNC CONN×3Attack errMarley Alefaio+0.6
2517-8C CONNC CONN×3Attack errLauren MacKellar+0.4
2617-9C CONNNEWHAV×3KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+0.2
2717-10NEWHAVNEWHAV×3Attack errOlivia Keckler+0.3
2817-11NEWHAVNEWHAV×3BlockedHanley Schmidtblk Quinn Yenshaw+0.5
2918-11NEWHAVC CONNBlockedQuinn Yenshawblk Hanley Schmidt, Valeria Torres+0.6
3019-11C CONNC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Isabella Aviles+0.5
3119-12C CONNNEWHAVServe errCentral Conn. St.+0.2
3220-12NEWHAVC CONNBlockedLauren MacKellarblk Cullen Winter, Olivia Keckler+0.3
3321-12C CONNC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Meg Berkland+0.2
3421-13C CONNNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns+0.1
3521-14NEWHAVNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns+0.2
3622-14NEWHAVC CONNServe errNew Haven+0.2
3722-15C CONNNEWHAVKillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+0.1
3822-16NEWHAVNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Payton Malinoski+0.2
3923-16NEWHAVC CONN×3KillMadison Fulgencioset Isabella Aviles+0.3
4024-16C CONNC CONN×3AceCentral Conn. St.aced Payton Malinoski+0.1
4125-16C CONNC CONN×3AceCentral Conn. St.·
Set 4
10-1C CONNNEWHAVKillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+2.0
20-2NEWHAVNEWHAVBlockedHanley Schmidtblk Zaira Kearns, Josie Foster+2.5
31-2NEWHAVC CONNServe errNew Haven+2.0
41-3C CONNNEWHAVAttack errOlivia Keckler+2.0
52-3NEWHAVC CONNServe errNew Haven+2.0
62-4C CONNNEWHAV×4Serve errCentral Conn. St.+2.0
72-5NEWHAVNEWHAV×4AceNew Haven+2.4
82-6NEWHAVNEWHAV×4AceNew Haven+2.2
92-7NEWHAVNEWHAV×4BlockedHanley Schmidtblk Marley Alefaio+1.9
103-7NEWHAVC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Isabella Aviles+1.3
113-8C CONNNEWHAVKillKira Lynchset Zaira Kearns+1.5
124-8NEWHAVC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Isabella Aviles+1.4
135-8C CONNC CONNAceCentral Conn. St.+2.1
145-9C CONNNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+1.8
156-9NEWHAVC CONNKillMadison Fulgencioset Isabella Aviles+1.7
166-10C CONNNEWHAV×4Serve errCentral Conn. St.+1.8
176-11NEWHAVNEWHAV×4KillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+2.0
186-12NEWHAVNEWHAV×4KillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+1.6
196-13NEWHAVNEWHAV×4Attack errOlivia Keckler+1.2
207-13NEWHAVC CONNKillMadison Fulgencioset Isabella Aviles+0.8
217-14C CONNNEWHAV×3KillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+1.0
227-15NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+0.9
237-16NEWHAVNEWHAV×3BlockedValeria Torresblk Josie Foster+0.6
248-16NEWHAVC CONN×4KillHanley Schmidtset Isabella Aviles+0.3
259-16C CONNC CONN×4BlockedZaira Kearnsblk Hanley Schmidt, Valeria Torres+0.5
2610-16C CONNC CONN×4Attack errJosie Foster+0.8
2711-16C CONNC CONN×4KillOlivia Kecklerset Annabelle Denomme+1.2
2811-17C CONNNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns+1.2
2911-18NEWHAVNEWHAVBlockedOlivia Kecklerblk Josie Foster+1.1
3012-18NEWHAVC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Isabella Aviles+0.5
3113-18C CONNC CONNAceCentral Conn. St.+1.0
3213-19C CONNNEWHAVServe errCentral Conn. St.+1.1
3314-19NEWHAVC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Isabella Aviles+0.8
3415-19C CONNC CONNAttack errKira Lynch+1.5
3515-20C CONNNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+1.6
3615-21NEWHAVNEWHAVBad setIsabella Aviles+1.3
3716-21NEWHAVC CONNServe errNew Haven+0.6
3817-21C CONNC CONNBlockedLauren MacKellarblk Cullen Winter, Madison Fulgencio+1.2
3917-22C CONNNEWHAVServe errCentral Conn. St.+1.5
4017-23NEWHAVNEWHAVAttack errMadison Fulgencio+0.9
4118-23NEWHAVC CONNKillCullen Winterset Isabella Aviles+0.3
4219-23C CONNC CONNAttack errCamryn Harris+0.7
4319-24C CONNNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns+1.0
4419-25NEWHAVNEWHAVBlockedMadison Fulgencioblk Lauren MacKellar, Josie Foster+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Central Conn. St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).