FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026

FDU def. New Haven 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: FDU 66.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 7, 3:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

FDU beat visiting New Haven 3-0 (25-21, 25-20, 25-21) on Sat, Nov 7, 2026. Mila Samardzija led FDU with 9 kills; New Haven's Lauren MacKellar had a match-high 16.

Data through · final Nov 7

Set123Sets
NEWHAV2120210
FDU2525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

FDU won all three sets by five or fewer and led every phase.

Win probability never moved more than 4.4 points on one rally; New Haven topped out at 38% in Set 1. Pre-match, RallyIQ had FDU at 66%.

New HavenFDU
  • Break %+11.0 pts
    34.945.9

    On serve: 34/74 against 22/63 (New Haven sideout 54.1%).

  • Longest run+3
    36

    FDU scored 6 straight in the third set to turn a 5–8 deficit into an 11–8 lead. The set finished 25–21.

FDU above 50New Haven belowMax swing 4.4%

New HavenFDU

Hitting
New Haven .156·FDU .232
Aces
New Haven 2·FDU 3
Serve err
New Haven 7·FDU 5
Blocks
New Haven 2·FDU 70 BS · 4 BA vs 1 BS · 12 BA
Digs
New Haven 65·FDU 53

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

FDU above 50 · New Haven below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+4.4% FDUrally 137 · set 3

Biggest swing: 4.4% to FDU — set 1, NEWHAV 19-21 FDU. Kill by Szonja Csabai (set by Isabella Scarfone). FDU win probability 69% → 73%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NEWHAV 31.9%68.1% FDU

New Haven wins

3-0
6.2%
3-1
11.3%
3-2
14.4%

FDU wins

3-0
22.0%
3-1
26.2%
3-2
20.0%
NEWHAV break %
42.8% vs this opp
FDU break %
46.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Szonja CsabaiKill+4.4%

    Kill by Szonja Csabai (set by Isabella Scarfone)

    Set 1 · NEWHAV 19-21 FDU · FDU 69% → 73%

  2. 02

    Kill by Marley Alefaio (set by Caroline Johnston)

    Set 1 · NEWHAV 19-19 FDU · NEWHAV 30% → 35%

  3. 03
    Caroline JohnstonService error+3.7%

    Service error by Caroline Johnston

    Set 1 · NEWHAV 19-20 FDU · FDU 65% → 69%

  4. 04

    Lauren MacKellar stuffed by Ava DeGuzman & Szonja Csabai

    Set 1 · NEWHAV 19-22 FDU · FDU 73% → 77%

  5. 05
    Mila SamardzijaAttack error+3.5%

    Attack error by Mila Samardzija

    Set 1 · NEWHAV 16-16 FDU · NEWHAV 31% → 34%

  6. 06
    Josie FosterAttack error+3.5%

    Attack error by Josie Foster

    Set 1 · NEWHAV 16-18 FDU · FDU 69% → 72%

  7. 07

    Kill by Mila Samardzija (set by Isabella Scarfone)

    Set 2 · NEWHAV 17-19 FDU · FDU 83% → 86%

  8. 08

    Kill by Alessia Zampieri (set by Isabella Scarfone)

    Set 1 · NEWHAV 17-19 FDU · FDU 69% → 72%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
316537.29701010000017
36213.30800010010.56.5
34316.06300020010.54.5
3229.00036031600002
31011.0000011010001
26428.071000400006
38526.115000100219
3000–012910001
3000–5011200000
12211.000000000002
Team totals4523141.156412765304262
FDUhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
39531.12920111002110
36228.143010400218
35013.38500000031.56.5
35021.238102900216
3318.2501801400003
25110.40000010010.55.5
3000–111200001
3000–2101510001
2507.714000401016
2003.0001200300000
1114.000000000212
Team totals3910125.2323635532112775

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

New Haven vs FDU

Season series · FDU leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 NEWHAV · FDU 6

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 NEWHAVFDU 5

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 2 NEWHAVFDU 4

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 3 NEWHAVFDU 6

Bars above the line = FDU leads, below = New Haven leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

New Haven

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
22%2/9
2
64%7/11
31%4/13
3
30%6/20
46%6/13
4
86%6/7
40%4/10
5
55%6/11
14%1/7
6
46%6/13
45%5/11
All
54%40/74
35%22/63

FDU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%9/13
11%1/9
2
58%7/12
46%6/13
3
58%7/12
59%10/17
4
75%6/8
50%6/12
5
60%6/10
45%5/11
6
75%6/8
50%6/12
All
65%41/63
46%34/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

137 rallies

#NEWHAV-FDUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0FDUNEWHAVKillCamryn Harrisset Isabella Scarfone+1.8
22-0NEWHAVNEWHAVAttack errIxchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez+2.3
32-1NEWHAVFDUKillAva DeGuzmanset Isabella Scarfone+1.8
42-2FDUFDUAttack errJosie Foster+2.2
53-2FDUNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+1.9
64-2NEWHAVNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Caroline Johnston+2.4
74-3NEWHAVFDU×5Attack errQuinn Yenshaw+1.9
84-4FDUFDU×5Attack errLauren MacKellar+2.3
94-5FDUFDU×5KillIsabella Scarfoneset Madeline Joyce+2.3
104-6FDUFDU×5Attack errQuinn Yenshaw+2.2
114-7FDUFDU×5KillAlessia Zampieriset Isabella Scarfone+2.1
125-7FDUNEWHAVKillCaroline Johnstonset Payton Malinoski+1.6
135-8NEWHAVFDUKillIxchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchezset Isabella Scarfone+1.7
146-8FDUNEWHAVKillJosie Fosterset Caroline Johnston+1.6
156-9NEWHAVFDUKillAlessia Zampieriset Isabella Scarfone+1.8
167-9FDUNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Caroline Johnston+1.7
177-10NEWHAVFDU×3Serve errCaroline Johnston+1.8
187-11FDUFDU×3Attack errMarley Alefaio+2.0
197-12FDUFDU×3KillAva DeGuzmanset Kayla Green+1.7
208-12FDUNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+1.2
219-12NEWHAVNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+1.8
229-13NEWHAVFDUBad setPayton Malinoski+1.7
2310-13FDUNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+1.5
2410-14NEWHAVFDUKillIxchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchezset Isabella Scarfone+1.7
2511-14FDUNEWHAV×3KillJosie Fosterset Caroline Johnston+1.5
2612-14NEWHAVNEWHAV×3AceNew Havenaced Madeline Joyce+2.3
2713-14NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+2.8
2813-15NEWHAVFDUAttack errCaroline Johnston+2.4
2913-16FDUFDUAttack errCaroline Johnston+2.7
3014-16FDUNEWHAV×3KillQuinn Yenshawset Caroline Johnston+2.0
3115-16NEWHAVNEWHAV×3AceNew Haven+3.0
3216-16NEWHAVNEWHAV×3Attack errMila Samardzija+3.5
3316-17NEWHAVFDUAttack errMarley Alefaio+3.0
3416-18FDUFDUAttack errJosie Foster+3.5
3517-18FDUNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Caroline Johnston+2.7
3617-19NEWHAVFDUKillAlessia Zampieriset Isabella Scarfone+3.0
3718-19FDUNEWHAVServe errFDU+2.8
3819-19NEWHAVNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Caroline Johnston+4.3
3919-20NEWHAVFDU×4Serve errCaroline Johnston+3.7
4019-21FDUFDU×4KillSzonja Csabaiset Isabella Scarfone+4.4
4119-22FDUFDU×4BlockedLauren MacKellarblk Ava DeGuzman, Szonja Csabai+3.6
4219-23FDUFDU×4AceFDUaced Lauren Fick+2.4
4320-23FDUNEWHAVKillKira Lynchset Caroline Johnston+1.0
4420-24NEWHAVFDUKillSzonja Csabaiset Isabella Scarfone+1.7
4521-24FDUNEWHAVKillKira Lynchset Caroline Johnston+0.6
4621-25NEWHAVFDUKillSzonja Csabaiset Camryn Harris+1.2
Set 2
11-0NEWHAVNEWHAVAttack errMila Samardzija+1.9
21-1NEWHAVFDUKillIxchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchezset Caroline Johnston+1.5
32-1FDUNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+1.6
42-2NEWHAVFDUKillAngela Marchettoset Isabella Scarfone+1.5
53-2FDUNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Caroline Johnston+1.6
64-2NEWHAVNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Caroline Johnston+2.1
74-3NEWHAVFDU×3KillMila Samardzijaset Isabella Scarfone+1.6
84-4FDUFDU×3AceFDUaced Camryn Harris+2.0
94-5FDUFDU×3Attack errSzonja Csabai+2.0
105-5FDUNEWHAVKillJosie Fosterset Caroline Johnston+1.7
116-5NEWHAVNEWHAVBlockedIsabella Scarfoneblk Josie Foster, Marley Alefaio+2.2
126-6NEWHAVFDUServe errLauren Fick+1.7
137-6FDUNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Caroline Johnston+1.8
147-7NEWHAVFDUKillAva DeGuzmanset Mila Samardzija+1.7
158-7FDUNEWHAVKillKira Lynchset Caroline Johnston+1.9
169-7NEWHAVNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Payton Malinoski+2.4
179-8NEWHAVFDUKillIxchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchezset Isabella Scarfone+1.8
1810-8FDUNEWHAVKillKira Lynchset Caroline Johnston+2.0
1910-9NEWHAVFDUKillIxchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchezset Isabella Scarfone+1.8
2010-10FDUFDUBlockedLauren MacKellarblk Mila Samardzija, Angela Marchetto+2.4
2111-10FDUNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+2.1
2212-10NEWHAVNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellar+2.6
2312-11NEWHAVFDUKillMila Samardzijaset Ava DeGuzman+2.0
2413-11FDUNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Caroline Johnston+2.2
2514-11NEWHAVNEWHAVKillCaroline Johnstonset Payton Malinoski+2.7
2614-12NEWHAVFDU×4KillNina Jasieckaset Nora Marginean+1.9
2714-13FDUFDU×4BlockedQuinn Yenshawblk Nina Jasiecka+2.6
2814-14FDUFDU×4BlockedLauren MacKellarblk Ava DeGuzman, Szonja Csabai+2.8
2914-15FDUFDU×4KillMila Samardzijaset Nora Marginean+2.8
3015-15FDUNEWHAVAttack errMila Samardzija+2.3
3115-16NEWHAVFDUKillNina Jasieckaset Nora Marginean+2.4
3216-16FDUNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Payton Malinoski+2.5
3316-17NEWHAVFDUKillSzonja Csabaiset Lauren MacKellar+2.5
3417-17FDUNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Caroline Johnston+2.6
3517-18NEWHAVFDUServe errCaroline Johnston+2.7
3617-19FDUFDUKillMila Samardzijaset Isabella Scarfone+3.2
3718-19FDUNEWHAVBlockedAngela Marchettoblk Marley Alefaio, Kira Lynch+2.4
3818-20NEWHAVFDU×3Serve errCamryn Harris+2.8
3918-21FDUFDU×3BlockedKira Lynchblk Angela Marchetto, Mila Samardzija+2.9
4018-22FDUFDU×3KillMila Samardzijaset Nora Marginean+2.1
4119-22FDUNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Caroline Johnston+1.0
4219-23NEWHAVFDUKillMila Samardzijaset Nora Marginean+1.6
4319-24FDUFDUAttack errQuinn Yenshaw+1.0
4420-24FDUNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+0.2
4520-25NEWHAVFDUKillNina Jasieckaset Nora Marginean+0.5
Set 3
11-0FDUNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+0.9
22-0NEWHAVNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+1.1
32-1NEWHAVFDUKillAlessia Zampieriset Isabella Scarfone+0.9
42-2FDUFDUAceFDU+1.1
53-2FDUNEWHAVKillJordan Northcuttset Payton Malinoski+0.9
64-2NEWHAVNEWHAVAttack errAlessia Zampieri+1.2
74-3NEWHAVFDUKillIsabella Scarfoneset Mila Samardzija+0.9
84-4FDUFDUKillMila Samardzijaset Isabella Scarfone+1.1
95-4FDUNEWHAVKillJosie Foster+1.0
106-4NEWHAVNEWHAVAttack errMila Samardzija+1.2
116-5NEWHAVFDUServe errLauren Fick+0.9
127-5FDUNEWHAVServe errFDU+1.0
138-5NEWHAVNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+1.3
148-6NEWHAVFDU×6Attack errMarley Alefaio+0.9
158-7FDUFDU×6KillAva DeGuzmanset Isabella Scarfone+1.2
168-8FDUFDU×6KillIsabella Scarfoneset Madeline Joyce+1.3
178-9FDUFDU×6BlockedMarley Alefaioblk Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez, Szonja Csabai+1.3
188-10FDUFDU×6Attack errMarley Alefaio+1.2
198-11FDUFDU×6Attack errKira Lynch+1.1
209-11FDUNEWHAV×3Serve errFDU+0.9
2110-11NEWHAVNEWHAV×3Attack errIxchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez+1.2
2211-11NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillMarley Alefaioset Caroline Johnston+1.4
2311-12NEWHAVFDUAttack errLauren MacKellar+1.1
2412-12FDUNEWHAVServe errFDU+1.2
2512-13NEWHAVFDUAttack errJordan Northcutt+1.2
2613-13FDUNEWHAVKillKira Lynchset Caroline Johnston+1.2
2714-13NEWHAVNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+1.6
2814-14NEWHAVFDUServe errPayton Malinoski+1.3
2914-15FDUFDUKillMila Samardzijaset Nora Marginean+1.6
3015-15FDUNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+1.3
3115-16NEWHAVFDU×4KillAlessia Zampieriset Nora Marginean+1.4
3215-17FDUFDU×4Attack errJosie Foster+1.6
3315-18FDUFDU×4KillNina Jasieckaset Nora Marginean+1.4
3415-19FDUFDU×4KillMila Samardzijaset Nora Marginean+1.2
3516-19FDUNEWHAVKillJordan Northcuttset Caroline Johnston+0.7
3616-20NEWHAVFDUKillNina Jasieckaset Nora Marginean+1.0
3717-20FDUNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Caroline Johnston+0.7
3817-21NEWHAVFDUAttack errSzonja Csabai+1.0
3918-21FDUNEWHAVKillKira Lynchset Caroline Johnston+0.7
4019-21NEWHAVNEWHAVAttack errMila Samardzija+1.3
4119-22NEWHAVFDUKillAva DeGuzmanset Isabella Scarfone+1.4
4219-23FDUFDUKillIxchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchezset Isabella Scarfone+1.2
4320-23FDUNEWHAVServe errFDU+0.5
4420-24NEWHAVFDUKillSzonja Csabaiset Nora Marginean+0.8
4521-24FDUNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Caroline Johnston+0.3
4621-25NEWHAVFDUBlockedJordan Northcuttblk Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez, Alessia Zampieri+0.6

Score shown after each rally, New Haven first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).