Final · 5 setsThu, Oct 1, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Furman def. Chattanooga 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Furman 81.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 1, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Furman beat visiting Chattanooga 3-2 (22-25, 25-12, 25-15, 19-25, 16-14) on Thu, Oct 1, 2026. Izzy Castelloe led Furman with 16 kills; Chattanooga's Gracie Rose had a match-high 17.

Data through · final Oct 1

Set12345Sets
CHAT25121525142
FURMAN22252519163

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Furman took the fifth 16–14 to finish off Chattanooga.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Furman's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave Furman 82% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Chattanooga 5–8 Furman

    Down 5–8, Chattanooga scored 3 straight to tie it at 8.

    Furman 87% → 62%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Chattanooga 10–11 Furman

    3 straight Furman points stretched an 11–10 lead to 14–10.

    Furman 75% → 99%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Chattanooga 10–14 Furman

    4 straight Chattanooga points erased a 10–14 deficit: 14–14.

    Furman 99% → 60%

Furman above 50Chattanooga belowMax swing 23.7%

ChattanoogaFurman

Sideout %
Chattanooga 51.9·Furman 60.9
Break %
Chattanooga 39.1·Furman 48.1
Hitting
Chattanooga .177·Furman .269
Longest run
Chattanooga 7·Furman 7

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Furman above 50 · Chattanooga below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+23.7% CHATrally 198 · set 5

Biggest swing: 23.7% to Chattanooga — set 5, CHAT 14-14 FURMAN. Tennyson Gorman stuffed by Kynli Kirkendoll. FURMAN win probability 84% → 60%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CHAT 17.5%82.5% FURMAN

Chattanooga wins

3-0
2.7%
3-1
5.7%
3-2
9.1%

Furman wins

3-0
34.1%
3-1
30.8%
3-2
17.5%
CHAT break %
40.9% vs this opp
FURMAN break %
48.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kynli KirkendollBlock+23.7%

    Tennyson Gorman stuffed by Kynli Kirkendoll

    Set 5 · CHAT 14-14 FURMAN · CHAT 16% → 40%

  2. 02
    Izzy CastelloeKill+21.0%

    Kill by Izzy Castelloe (set by Morgan Baldridge)

    Set 5 · CHAT 14-16 FURMAN · FURMAN 79% → 100%

  3. 03
    Izzy CastelloeKill+18.7%

    Kill by Izzy Castelloe (set by Morgan Baldridge)

    Set 5 · CHAT 14-15 FURMAN · FURMAN 60% → 79%

  4. 04
    Ashtan DodsonKill+11.4%

    Kill by Ashtan Dodson (set by Lindsay Walch)

    Set 5 · CHAT 9-11 FURMAN · FURMAN 72% → 83%

  5. 05

    Amber Watson stuffed by Bailey Burgess & Jordin Glass

    Set 5 · CHAT 8-8 FURMAN · CHAT 27% → 38%

  6. 06
    Amber WatsonKill+9.6%

    Kill by Amber Watson (set by Emily Navarro)

    Set 5 · CHAT 9-10 FURMAN · FURMAN 62% → 72%

  7. 07
    ChattanoogaService error+9.6%

    Chattanooga service error

    Set 5 · CHAT 10-12 FURMAN · FURMAN 75% → 85%

  8. 08
    Ashtan DodsonAttack error+9.5%

    Attack error by Ashtan Dodson

    Set 5 · CHAT 13-14 FURMAN · CHAT 6% → 16%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517844.20500011010.517.5
510119.47401031052.513.5
53417-.05901130254.58.5
46426.077100132010.56.5
4022-1.0001801700000
23210.100000000214
55010.50000000153.58.5
5106.1672211800002
5003.0009002220000
48118.38900010010.58.5
4022-1.000001100000
3011-1.000100120000
1000–000000000
1000–000100000
Team totals5325158.177513461103201391
Furmanhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513324.41703230132.518.5
515331.387120191010.517.5
56312.25010200254.510.5
58227.22211210010.59.5
57423.13001020010.58.5
5018-.12522001000000
516540.27502140052.520.5
5001.0005021510000
5000–2800900000
4000–110500001
21011.000000000001
Team totals6621167.2695910968331611107

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Chattanooga vs Furman

Season series · Furman leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 CHAT · FURMAN 7

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 3 CHATFURMAN 4

Set 2

12-25

Longest run 2 CHATFURMAN 7

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 3 CHATFURMAN 7

Set 4

25-19

Longest run 7 CHATFURMAN 3

Set 5

14-16

Longest run 4 CHATFURMAN 3

Bars above the line = Furman leads, below = Chattanooga leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Chattanooga

SlotSideout %Break %
1
40%10/25
20%2/10
2
62%8/13
40%6/15
3
47%8/17
50%8/16
4
64%7/11
53%8/15
5
67%6/9
36%4/11
6
86%6/7
33%3/9
All
55%45/82
41%31/76

Furman

SlotSideout %Break %
1
82%9/11
60%12/20
2
47%9/19
36%5/14
3
47%8/17
56%10/18
4
78%7/9
33%4/12
5
55%6/11
50%6/12
6
67%6/9
0%0/6
All
59%45/76
45%37/82

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

198 rallies

#CHAT-FURMANSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1CHATFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Emily Navarro+1.2
21-1FURMANCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Caiti Barthel+1.3
32-1CHATCHATKillSophia Garridoset Emily Navarro+1.8
42-2CHATFURMANKillLindsay Walchset Emily Navarro+1.3
52-3FURMANFURMANBlockedSophia Garridoblk Amber Watson, Tennyson Gorman+1.6
63-3FURMANCHATKillGracie Roseset Mallory Merz+1.3
73-4CHATFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.3
84-4FURMANCHATKillJordin Glassset Mallory Merz+1.4
94-5CHATFURMANKillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+1.3
105-5FURMANCHATServe errFurman+1.4
116-5CHATCHATBlockedAshtan Dodsonblk Bailey Burgess, Jordin Glass+2.0
126-6CHATFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.4
137-6FURMANCHAT×3KillJordin Glassset Ashley Reynolds+1.6
148-6CHATCHAT×3BlockedKacie Mooreblk Bailey Burgess, Kynli Kirkendoll+2.2
159-6CHATCHAT×3KillElena Vukmanovset Caiti Barthel+2.3
169-7CHATFURMANKillAshtan Dodsonset Emily Navarro+1.6
1710-7FURMANCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Ashley Reynolds+1.9
1811-7CHATCHATBlockedLindsay Walchblk Kynli Kirkendoll, Elena Vukmanov+2.4
1911-8CHATFURMANBlockedElena Vukmanovblk Kacie Moore, Lindsay Walch+1.5
2012-8FURMANCHATBlockedAmber Watsonblk Kynli Kirkendoll, Sophia Garrido+1.9
2113-8CHATCHATKillGracie Roseset Caiti Barthel+2.3
2213-9CHATFURMANBad setCaiti Barthel+1.4
2313-10FURMANFURMANAttack errKynli Kirkendoll+2.1
2414-10FURMANCHAT×3KillGracie Roseset Caiti Barthel+2.0
2515-10CHATCHAT×3KillSophia Garridoset Mallory Merz+2.4
2616-10CHATCHAT×3BlockedIzzy Castelloeblk Jordin Glass, Sophia Garrido+2.0
2716-11CHATFURMANKillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+1.1
2817-11FURMANCHATBad setMorgan Baldridge+1.6
2918-11CHATCHATKillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+1.5
3018-12CHATFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+0.7
3118-13FURMANFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Tennyson Gorman+1.3
3219-13FURMANCHATServe errFurman+1.5
3320-13CHATCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+1.3
3420-14CHATFURMANKillAshtan Dodsonset Morgan Baldridge+0.5
3521-14FURMANCHATAttack errKacie Moore+0.9
3621-15CHATFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Emily Navarro+0.4
3722-15FURMANCHATBad setAmber Watson+0.8
3822-16CHATFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Emily Navarro+0.3
3922-17FURMANFURMANBlockedMallory Merzblk Tennyson Gorman+0.7
4023-17FURMANCHATBad setLindsay Walch+1.0
4123-18CHATFURMANAttack errGracie Rose+0.3
4224-18FURMANCHATServe errFurman+0.7
4324-19CHATFURMAN×4Attack errGracie Rose+0.1
4424-20FURMANFURMAN×4AceFurmanaced Elena Vukmanov+0.4
4524-21FURMANFURMAN×4BlockedGracie Roseblk Izzy Castelloe, Tennyson Gorman+0.9
4624-22FURMANFURMAN×4KillAshtan Dodson+1.8
4725-22FURMANCHATKillJordin Glassset Mallory Merz+3.4
Set 2
10-1FURMANFURMAN×5AceFurmanaced Jordin Glass+2.4
20-2FURMANFURMAN×5KillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+2.2
30-3FURMANFURMAN×5KillTennyson Gorman+2.0
40-4FURMANFURMAN×5Attack errElena Vukmanov+1.7
50-5FURMANFURMAN×5KillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.4
61-5FURMANCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Mallory Merz+1.1
71-6CHATFURMANKillAshtan Dodsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.1
82-6FURMANCHATServe errFurman+1.1
93-6CHATCHATKillJordin Glassset Mallory Merz+1.7
103-7CHATFURMAN×3KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.4
113-8FURMANFURMAN×3AceFurmanaced Elena Vukmanov+1.5
123-9FURMANFURMAN×3AceFurmanaced Gracie Rose+1.2
134-9FURMANCHATServe errFurman+0.8
144-10CHATFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Emily Navarro+0.9
155-10FURMANCHATAttack errLindsay Walch+0.8
165-11CHATFURMANKillLindsay Walchset Emily Navarro+0.9
176-11FURMANCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+0.8
186-12CHATFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Emily Navarro+0.9
197-12FURMANCHATBlockedAmber Watsonblk Bailey Burgess, Kynli Kirkendoll+0.8
208-12CHATCHATAttack errTennyson Gorman+1.4
218-13CHATFURMAN×7KillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+1.3
228-14FURMANFURMAN×7KillAshtan Dodsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.2
238-15FURMANFURMAN×7BlockedElena Vukmanovblk Izzy Castelloe, Tennyson Gorman+0.9
248-16FURMANFURMAN×7BlockedKynli Kirkendollblk Tennyson Gorman+0.6
258-17FURMANFURMAN×7Bad setKynli Kirkendoll+0.3
268-18FURMANFURMAN×7KillAshtan Dodson+0.2
278-19FURMANFURMAN×7Attack errKynli Kirkendoll+0.1
289-19FURMANCHATKillSophia Garridoset Mallory Merz·
299-20CHATFURMANKillAshtan Dodsonset Brooke Scheffler+0.1
3010-20FURMANCHATKillGracie Roseset Caiti Barthel·
3110-21CHATFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge·
3210-22FURMANFURMANBlockedSophia Garridoblk Kacie Moore, Ashtan Dodson·
3311-22FURMANCHATKillGracie Roseset Mallory Merz·
3411-23CHATFURMANAttack errCaroline Peterson·
3511-24FURMANFURMANAceFurmanaced Caroline Peterson·
3612-24FURMANCHATBad setAmber Watson·
3712-25CHATFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Emily Navarro·
Set 3
11-0CHAT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.7
21-1CHATFURMANKillAshtan Dodsonset Morgan Baldridge+2.0
31-2FURMANFURMANKillAshtan Dodsonset Kennedy Seekford+2.4
42-2FURMANCHAT×3KillAddison Walkerset Ashley Reynolds+2.0
53-2CHATCHAT×3KillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+2.8
64-2CHATCHAT×3Attack errIzzy Castelloe+3.1
74-3CHATFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Kennedy Seekford+2.2
85-3FURMANCHATKillBailey Burgessset Ashley Reynolds+2.5
96-3CHATCHATAceChattanoogaaced Ashtan Dodson+3.3
106-4CHATFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Emily Navarro+2.3
116-5FURMANFURMANKillLindsay Walchset Kennedy Seekford+3.0
127-5FURMANCHATKillGracie Rose+2.7
137-6CHATFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Emily Navarro+2.4
148-6FURMANCHATKillAshley Reynoldsset Caroline Peterson+2.7
158-7CHATFURMAN×3KillLindsay Walchset Kennedy Seekford+2.4
168-8FURMANFURMAN×3AceFurman+3.2
178-9FURMANFURMAN×3KillTennyson Gormanset Caiti Barthel+3.0
189-9FURMANCHATServe errFurman+2.5
199-10CHATFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+2.4
2010-10FURMANCHATKillAddison Walkerset Ashley Reynolds+2.6
2110-11CHATFURMANServe errChattanooga+2.5
2211-11FURMANCHATKillBailey Burgessset Ashley Reynolds+2.7
2311-12CHATFURMAN×4KillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+2.6
2411-13FURMANFURMAN×4Attack errGracie Rose+3.1
2511-14FURMANFURMAN×4KillAshtan Dodsonset Morgan Baldridge+2.7
2611-15FURMANFURMAN×4KillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+2.2
2712-15FURMANCHATKillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+1.5
2812-16CHATFURMAN×7KillLindsay Walchset Emily Navarro+1.7
2912-17FURMANFURMAN×7KillKacie Moore+1.7
3012-18FURMANFURMAN×7AceFurmanaced Caiti Barthel+1.2
3112-19FURMANFURMAN×7KillLindsay Walchset Ashtan Dodson+0.7
3212-20FURMANFURMAN×7Attack errGracie Rose+0.4
3312-21FURMANFURMAN×7KillAmber Watsonset Kennedy Seekford+0.2
3412-22FURMANFURMAN×7Attack errKynli Kirkendoll+0.1
3513-22FURMANCHATKillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds·
3613-23CHATFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Emily Navarro·
3713-24FURMANFURMANAceFurmanaced Caroline Peterson·
3814-24FURMANCHATServe errFurman·
3915-24CHATCHATKillAddison Walkerset Ashley Reynolds·
4015-25CHATFURMANKillTennyson Gormanset Emily Navarro·
Set 4
11-0FURMANCHATBlockedIzzy Castelloeblk Addison Walker, Kynli Kirkendoll+1.7
21-1CHATFURMANKillAshtan Dodsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.5
32-1FURMANCHAT×3Serve errFurman+1.7
43-1CHATCHAT×3KillGracie Roseset Mallory Merz+2.3
54-1CHATCHAT×3AceChattanooga+2.5
64-2CHATFURMAN×3KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.7
74-3FURMANFURMAN×3BlockedJordin Glassblk Kacie Moore+2.2
84-4FURMANFURMAN×3KillAshtan Dodsonset Morgan Baldridge+2.2
95-4FURMANCHATKillJordin Glassset Mallory Merz+1.9
105-5CHATFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Emily Navarro+1.7
116-5FURMANCHATKillGracie Roseset Caiti Barthel+1.9
126-6CHATFURMANKillLindsay Walchset Emily Navarro+1.8
136-7FURMANFURMANAceFurmanaced Caiti Barthel+2.2
147-7FURMANCHATServe errFurman+1.8
157-8CHATFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Emily Navarro+1.7
168-8FURMANCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+1.9
178-9CHATFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.8
189-9FURMANCHATBlockedTennyson Gormanblk Kynli Kirkendoll+1.9
199-10CHATFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.9
209-11FURMANFURMANKillAshtan Dodsonset Morgan Baldridge+2.3
2110-11FURMANCHAT×3KillAddison Walkerset Mallory Merz+1.8
2211-11CHATCHAT×3BlockedIzzy Castelloeblk Jordin Glass, Gracie Rose+2.6
2312-11CHATCHAT×3KillAddison Walkerset Mallory Merz+3.0
2412-12CHATFURMANServe errChattanooga+2.2
2512-13FURMANFURMANKillKacie Moore+2.8
2613-13FURMANCHAT×7KillAddison Walkerset Mallory Merz+2.3
2714-13CHATCHAT×7KillJordin Glassset Caiti Barthel+3.3
2815-13CHATCHAT×7KillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+3.6
2916-13CHATCHAT×7KillGracie Roseset Caiti Barthel+3.6
3017-13CHATCHAT×7KillBailey Burgessset Ashley Reynolds+3.4
3118-13CHATCHAT×7KillJordin Glassset Ashley Reynolds+3.0
3219-13CHATCHAT×7AceChattanoogaaced Kennedy Seekford+2.3
3319-14CHATFURMANKillLauren Haynesset Emily Navarro+1.1
3420-14FURMANCHATKillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+1.8
3520-15CHATFURMAN×3KillAmber Watsonset Emily Navarro+1.0
3620-16FURMANFURMAN×3Attack errElena Vukmanov+1.8
3720-17FURMANFURMAN×3AceFurman+2.5
3821-17FURMANCHATKillJordin Glassset Ashley Reynolds+3.0
3922-17CHATCHATAttack errAmber Watson+2.7
4022-18CHATFURMANKillLindsay Walchset Emily Navarro+1.0
4123-18FURMANCHATKillBailey Burgessset Ashley Reynolds+1.9
4223-19CHATFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+0.7
4324-19FURMANCHATKillAddison Walkerset Mallory Merz+1.6
4425-19CHATCHATServe errChattanooga+0.3
Set 5
10-1CHATFURMANBlockedRyan Odenblk Tennyson Gorman, Izzy Castelloe+5.6
20-2FURMANFURMANAttack errRyan Oden+6.8
31-2FURMANCHATKillAddison Walkerset Elena Vukmanov+5.3
41-3CHATFURMANKillAshtan Dodsonset Morgan Baldridge+5.4
51-4FURMANFURMANBlockedGracie Roseblk Kacie Moore, Izzy Castelloe+6.1
62-4FURMANCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Mallory Merz+4.5
73-4CHATCHATKillJordin Glassset Mallory Merz+7.2
83-5CHATFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Kynli Kirkendoll+5.9
94-5FURMANCHATKillGracie Roseset Mallory Merz+5.9
105-5CHATCHATBlockedKacie Mooreblk Bailey Burgess+9.1
115-6CHATFURMAN×3Attack errGracie Rose+7.1
125-7FURMANFURMAN×3Attack errGracie Rose+8.5
135-8FURMANFURMAN×3KillKacie Mooreset Emily Navarro+7.2
146-8FURMANCHAT×3KillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+4.9
157-8CHATCHAT×3KillBailey Burgessset Ashley Reynolds+8.5
168-8CHATCHAT×3BlockedAmber Watsonblk Bailey Burgess, Jordin Glass+11.0
178-9CHATFURMANServe errChattanooga+8.8
189-9FURMANCHATKillJordin Glassset Caiti Barthel+9.3
199-10CHATFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Emily Navarro+9.6
209-11FURMANFURMANKillAshtan Dodsonset Lindsay Walch+11.4
2110-11FURMANCHATAttack errEmily Navarro+7.8
2210-12CHATFURMAN×3Serve errChattanooga+9.6
2310-13FURMANFURMAN×3Attack errMallory Merz+9.2
2410-14FURMANFURMAN×3BlockedAddison Walkerblk Izzy Castelloe, Tennyson Gorman+4.8
2511-14FURMANCHAT×4KillElena Vukmanovset Mallory Merz+1.2
2612-14CHATCHAT×4Attack errIzzy Castelloe+3.8
2713-14CHATCHAT×4Attack errAshtan Dodson+9.5
2814-14CHATCHAT×4BlockedTennyson Gormanblk Kynli Kirkendoll+23.7
2914-15CHATFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+18.7
3014-16FURMANFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+21.0

Score shown after each rally, Chattanooga first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).