Final · 5 setsThu, Oct 15, 2026Watch on ESPN+

App State def. James Madison 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: James Madison 80.5% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 15, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

App State won at James Madison 3-2 (22-25, 27-25, 18-25, 26-24, 16-14) on Thu, Oct 15, 2026. Bella Hutchens led App State with 16 kills; James Madison's Kennedy Louisell had a match-high 29.

Data through · final Oct 15

Set12345Sets
APP ST22271826163
JMU25252524142

Match story · written from the play-by-play

4 aces from Chelsea Gilmore, and App State needed each of them.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows App State's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. James Madison went in at 81% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · App State 22–24 James Madison

    App State won 4 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 26–24 and level the match at 2–2.

    App State 3% → 34%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · App State 3–4 James Madison

    James Madison scored 5 straight to stretch a 4–3 lead to 9–3.

    App State 27% → 2%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · App State 6–12 James Madison

    From here App State won 10 of 12 rallies to take the set 16–14, and with it the match.

    App State 1% → >99%

James Madison above 50App State belowMax swing 33.0%

App StateJames Madison

Sideout %
App State 54.0·James Madison 56.0
Break %
App State 44.0·James Madison 46.0
Hitting
App State .213·James Madison .194
Longest run
App State 5·James Madison 6

Bella Hutchens
3 of her kills came in the stretches above. 16 K, .189, 18.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

James Madison above 50 · App State below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+33.0% APP STrally 222 · set 5

Biggest swing: 33.0% to App State — set 5, APP ST 16-14 JMU. Kill by Bella Hutchens (set by Raegan Richardson). JMU win probability 33% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

APP ST 30.5%69.5% JMU

App State wins

3-0
5.8%
3-1
10.7%
3-2
13.9%

James Madison wins

3-0
22.9%
3-1
26.7%
3-2
19.9%
APP ST break %
39.8% vs this opp
JMU break %
43.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Bella HutchensKill+33.0%

    Kill by Bella Hutchens (set by Raegan Richardson)

    Set 5 · APP ST 16-14 JMU · APP ST 67% → 100%

  2. 02

    Kennedy Louisell stuffed by Molly Teague & Nevaeh Hays

    Set 5 · APP ST 15-14 JMU · APP ST 39% → 67%

  3. 03
    App StateAce+24.0%

    App State ace

    Set 5 · APP ST 14-14 JMU · APP ST 15% → 39%

  4. 04

    Ana Toumazatos stuffed by Chelsea Gilmore & Raegan Richardson

    Set 4 · APP ST 26-24 JMU · APP ST 24% → 34%

  5. 05
    Bella HutchensKill+10.4%

    Kill by Bella Hutchens (set by Raegan Richardson)

    Set 5 · APP ST 11-12 JMU · APP ST 12% → 23%

  6. 06
    Bella HutchensBad set+10.2%

    Bad set by Bella Hutchens

    Set 5 · APP ST 11-13 JMU · JMU 77% → 88%

  7. 07
    Kennedy LouisellAttack error+9.9%

    Attack error by Kennedy Louisell

    Set 4 · APP ST 25-24 JMU · APP ST 14% → 24%

  8. 08
    Shelby DavisAce+9.3%

    Ace by Shelby Davis

    Set 5 · APP ST 11-14 JMU · JMU 88% → 97%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
511121.47604160094.519.5
516937.18921231031.518.5
58220.30000000031.59.5
57218.278000000218
53011.273411390031.55.5
5317.286013600004
5141041.0980003004216
5005.0008121000001
5000–002800000
4001.000100300000
2023-.667000100000
Team totals6227164.21352813491302412109
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
529964.3130559102135
53412-.08301220110610
56415.13320020052.58.5
5115.000000000423
5001.000132500003
5104.250201070010.52.5
512425.3200000008416
53319.000000300003
5115.0004101800002
5104.2502112100002
2011-1.000010100001
Team totals5727155.19448131148813016113

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

App State vs James Madison

Season series · App State leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 APP ST · JMU 6

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 APP STJMU 6

Set 2

27-25

Longest run 3 APP STJMU 4

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 5 APP STJMU 6

Set 4

26-24

Longest run 4 APP STJMU 3

Set 5

16-14

Longest run 5 APP STJMU 5

Bars above the line = James Madison leads, below = App State leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

App State

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%12/19
33%5/15
2
46%11/24
29%5/17
3
50%11/22
52%12/23
4
59%10/17
47%9/19
5
50%9/18
47%8/17
6
62%8/13
50%9/18
All
54%61/113
44%48/109

James Madison

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%12/19
38%6/16
2
63%12/19
45%10/22
3
43%10/23
59%16/27
4
50%9/18
50%10/20
5
75%9/12
25%3/12
6
50%9/18
44%7/16
All
56%61/109
46%52/113

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

222 rallies

#APP ST-JMUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1APP STJMUServe errApp State+1.2
21-1JMUAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+1.2
32-1APP STAPP STKillMolly Teagueset Raegan Richardson+1.9
42-2APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Melisa Ilter+1.3
53-2JMUAPP ST×4KillMolly Teagueset Kennedy Louisell+1.4
64-2APP STAPP ST×4AceApp Stateaced Kennedy Louisell+2.1
75-2APP STAPP ST×4Attack errAyen Nhial+2.2
86-2APP STAPP ST×4KillCharlotte Thompsonset Bella Hutchens+2.2
96-3APP STJMUServe errApp State+1.3
107-3JMUAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+1.7
118-3APP STAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+2.2
128-4APP STJMUKillAddie Normanset Lindsey Large+1.3
139-4JMUAPP STServe errAyen Nhial+1.6
149-5APP STJMU×3KillAddie Normanset Lindsey Large+1.3
159-6JMUJMU×3KillMelisa Ilterset Sydney Lewis+2.0
169-7JMUJMU×3KillKennedy Louisellset Raegan Richardson+2.2
1710-7JMUAPP ST×4KillAmelia Mancinoset Raegan Richardson+1.8
1811-7APP STAPP ST×4AceApp State+2.5
1912-7APP STAPP ST×4KillBella Hutchens+2.4
2013-7APP STAPP ST×4Bad setKennedy Louisell+2.1
2113-8APP STJMUServe errApp State+1.1
2213-9JMUJMUAttack errBella Hutchens+1.9
2314-9JMUAPP STServe errShelby Davis+1.8
2414-10APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+1.3
2515-10JMUAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+1.8
2615-11APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+1.3
2715-12JMUJMUAttack errCharlotte Thompson+2.2
2816-12JMUAPP STServe errLindsey Large+2.1
2916-13APP STJMUKillAddie Normanset Lindsey Large+1.5
3017-13JMUAPP STServe errKennedy Louisell+2.1
3117-14APP STJMUServe errApp State+1.5
3218-14JMUAPP STKillCharlotte Thompsonset Raegan Richardson+2.2
3318-15APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Raegan Richardson+1.5
3419-15JMUAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+2.2
3520-15APP STAPP STKillNevaeh Haysset Sydney Lewis+2.4
3620-16APP STJMUKillAna Toumazatosset Grace Wenrich+1.0
3721-16JMUAPP STKillNevaeh Haysset Caroline Farthing+1.7
3821-17APP STJMU×3Serve errApp State+0.9
3921-18JMUJMU×3BlockedMolly Teagueblk Ayen Nhial, Melisa Ilter+1.9
4021-19JMUJMU×3Attack errBella Hutchens+2.8
4122-19JMUAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+3.0
4222-20APP STJMU×6KillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+1.9
4322-21JMUJMU×6BlockedCharlotte Thompsonblk Ayen Nhial, Addie Norman+4.0
4422-22JMUJMU×6KillKennedy Louisellset Lindsey Large+5.2
4522-23JMUJMU×6AceLindsey Largeaced Bella Hutchens+5.8
4622-24JMUJMU×6Bad setMeMe Davis+4.9
4722-25JMUJMU×6BlockedCharlotte Thompsonblk Ayen Nhial, Addie Norman+2.4
Set 2
11-0JMUAPP STKillMolly Teagueset Raegan Richardson+1.0
22-0APP STAPP STKillCharlotte Thompsonset MeMe Davis+1.5
32-1APP STJMUAttack errCharlotte Thompson+1.0
42-2JMUJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Sydney Lewis+1.4
53-2JMUAPP STKillCharlotte Thompsonset Raegan Richardson+1.1
64-2APP STAPP STKillCharlotte Thompson+1.6
74-3APP STJMUAttack errCharlotte Thompson+1.0
84-4JMUJMUKillAyen Nhialset Addie Norman+1.5
95-4JMUAPP ST×3KillMolly Teagueset Raegan Richardson+1.1
106-4APP STAPP ST×3Attack errAyen Nhial+1.7
117-4APP STAPP ST×3KillCharlotte Thompson+1.7
127-5APP STJMU×4KillAddie Normanset Lindsey Large+1.1
137-6JMUJMU×4Attack errBrooke Doherty+1.6
147-7JMUJMU×4AceKennedy Louisell+1.6
157-8JMUJMU×4AceKennedy Louisell+1.5
168-8JMUAPP STAttack errAna Toumazatos+1.1
179-8APP STAPP STAceApp State+1.8
189-9APP STJMUKillAddie Normanset Lindsey Large+1.2
1910-9JMUAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+1.3
2010-10APP STJMUKillAnna Wilsonset Lindsey Large+1.2
2111-10JMUAPP STAttack errKennedy Louisell+1.4
2211-11APP STJMUAttack errNevaeh Hays+1.3
2312-11JMUAPP ST×3Serve errShelby Davis+1.4
2413-11APP STAPP ST×3KillCharlotte Thompsonset MeMe Davis+2.1
2514-11APP STAPP ST×3Attack errMelisa Ilter+2.2
2614-12APP STJMUServe errApp State+1.3
2714-13JMUJMUBlockedNevaeh Haysblk Ayen Nhial+2.0
2815-13JMUAPP STKillCharlotte Thompsonset Raegan Richardson+1.7
2915-14APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+1.4
3015-15JMUJMUAttack errCharlotte Thompson+2.2
3116-15JMUAPP STKillMolly Teagueset MeMe Davis+1.7
3216-16APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Lindsey Large+1.6
3316-17JMUJMUKillAyen Nhial+2.3
3417-17JMUAPP STServe errKennedy Louisell+1.7
3518-17APP STAPP STAttack errAyen Nhial+2.7
3618-18APP STJMUKillAna Toumazatosset Lindsey Large+1.8
3718-19JMUJMUAceAyen Nhial+2.6
3819-19JMUAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+1.9
3920-19APP STAPP STAceApp State+3.2
4020-20APP STJMUKillAna Toumazatosset Lindsey Large+2.1
4121-20JMUAPP STAttack errAnna Wilson+2.6
4221-21APP STJMUBad setBella Hutchens+2.4
4321-22JMUJMUBlockedMolly Teagueblk Anna Wilson, Melisa Ilter+3.7
4422-22JMUAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+2.6
4522-23APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+3.0
4623-23JMUAPP STKillNevaeh Haysset Raegan Richardson+3.0
4724-23APP STAPP STKillRaegan Richardsonset Bella Dafforn+6.1
4824-24APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+4.4
4924-25JMUJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Sydney Lewis+5.5
5025-25JMUAPP ST×3KillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+3.8
5126-25APP STAPP ST×3BlockedKennedy Louisellblk Charlotte Thompson, Chelsea Gilmore+6.1
5227-25APP STAPP ST×3BlockedKennedy Louisellblk Chelsea Gilmore, Raegan Richardson+7.1
Set 3
10-1APP STJMU×4KillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+1.8
20-2JMUJMU×4KillSydney Lewisset Melisa Ilter+2.4
30-3JMUJMU×4AceSydney Lewis+2.1
40-4JMUJMU×4KillAyen Nhialset Grace Wenrich+1.8
51-4JMUAPP STKillAmelia Mancinoset Raegan Richardson+1.2
61-5APP STJMU×3KillKennedy Louisellset Sydney Lewis+1.3
71-6JMUJMU×3BlockedCharlotte Thompsonblk Ayen Nhial, Addie Norman+1.5
81-7JMUJMU×3KillLindsey Largeset Shelby Davis+1.2
92-7JMUAPP STAttack errKennedy Louisell+0.8
102-8APP STJMUKillAddie Normanset Lindsey Large+0.9
113-8JMUAPP STServe errKennedy Louisell+0.8
124-8APP STAPP STKillCharlotte Thompsonset Raegan Richardson+1.4
134-9APP STJMUKillAddie Normanset Lindsey Large+1.1
145-9JMUAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+1.0
156-9APP STAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+1.8
166-10APP STJMUServe errApp State+1.4
177-10JMUAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+1.3
187-11APP STJMUKillGrace Wenrich+1.5
198-11JMUAPP STKillRaegan Richardsonset Bella Hutchens+1.4
208-12APP STJMUKillMelisa Ilterset Bella Hutchens+1.5
219-12JMUAPP STKillMolly Teagueset Raegan Richardson+1.4
229-13APP STJMUServe errApp State+1.5
2310-13JMUAPP ST×5KillNevaeh Haysset Raegan Richardson+1.4
2411-13APP STAPP ST×5BlockedAddie Normanblk Chelsea Gilmore, Charlotte Thompson+2.5
2512-13APP STAPP ST×5Attack errAyen Nhial+3.2
2613-13APP STAPP ST×5KillCharlotte Thompson+3.9
2714-13APP STAPP ST×5KillRaegan Richardsonset Bella Dafforn+4.5
2814-14APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Lindsey Large+3.0
2915-14JMUAPP STServe errKennedy Louisell+3.4
3015-15APP STJMUKillAddie Normanset Lindsey Large+3.1
3116-15JMUAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+3.6
3217-15APP STAPP STBlockedAddie Normanblk Bella Hutchens, Chelsea Gilmore+5.3
3317-16APP STJMU×6BlockedBella Hutchensblk Addie Norman, Anna Wilson+3.3
3417-17JMUJMU×6AceGrace Wenrich+5.1
3517-18JMUJMU×6Attack errBella Hutchens+5.0
3617-19JMUJMU×6KillMelisa Ilterset Grace Wenrich+4.6
3717-20JMUJMU×6BlockedBella Hutchensblk Anna Wilson, Melisa Ilter+3.7
3817-21JMUJMU×6BlockedBella Hutchensblk Anna Wilson, Melisa Ilter+2.6
3918-21JMUAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+1.2
4018-22APP STJMU×4KillMelisa Ilterset Raegan Richardson+1.7
4118-23JMUJMU×4AceShelby Davis+1.3
4218-24JMUJMU×4AceShelby Davis+0.4
4318-25JMUJMU×4BlockedBrooke Dohertyblk Melisa Ilter, Grace Wenrich+0.1
Set 4
11-0JMUAPP STKillNevaeh Haysset Raegan Richardson+1.6
21-1APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+1.5
32-1JMUAPP STKillMolly Teagueset Raegan Richardson+1.7
42-2APP STJMU×3KillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+1.6
52-3JMUJMU×3BlockedCharlotte Thompsonblk Ayen Nhial, Addie Norman+2.1
62-4JMUJMU×3BlockedChelsea Gilmoreblk Ayen Nhial, Kennedy Louisell+2.0
73-4JMUAPP STServe errLindsey Large+1.4
84-4APP STAPP STKillCharlotte Thompsonset MeMe Davis+2.2
94-5APP STJMUServe errApp State+1.6
105-5JMUAPP STBlockedAna Toumazatosblk Chelsea Gilmore, Raegan Richardson+1.7
116-5APP STAPP STAttack errAddie Norman+2.6
126-6APP STJMUServe errApp State+1.7
136-7JMUJMUAttack errBella Hutchens+2.4
147-7JMUAPP STServe errAyen Nhial+1.8
157-8APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Lindsey Large+1.7
168-8JMUAPP STKillAmelia Mancinoset Raegan Richardson+1.8
179-8APP STAPP STKillBella Hutchensset MeMe Davis+2.9
189-9APP STJMUKillMelisa Ilterset Grace Wenrich+1.9
1910-9JMUAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+2.1
2010-10APP STJMUAttack errBella Hutchens+2.0
2111-10JMUAPP ST×3KillNevaeh Haysset Raegan Richardson+2.2
2212-10APP STAPP ST×3KillCharlotte Thompsonset MeMe Davis+3.3
2313-10APP STAPP ST×3BlockedKennedy Louisellblk Chelsea Gilmore, Molly Teague+3.4
2413-11APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+2.0
2513-12JMUJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Lindsey Large+3.2
2614-12JMUAPP STAttack errKennedy Louisell+2.6
2714-13APP STJMU×3KillKennedy Louisellset Shelby Davis+2.3
2814-14JMUJMU×3KillAddie Normanset Lindsey Large+3.4
2914-15JMUJMU×3AceKennedy Louisell+3.3
3015-15JMUAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+2.4
3115-16APP STJMUServe errApp State+2.4
3216-16JMUAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+2.6
3316-17APP STJMUAttack errAmelia Mancino+2.6
3417-17JMUAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+2.7
3517-18APP STJMUServe errApp State+2.7
3618-18JMUAPP STKillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+2.9
3718-19APP STJMU×3KillMelisa Ilterset Grace Wenrich+3.0
3818-20JMUJMU×3KillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+3.9
3918-21JMUJMU×3KillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+3.0
4019-21JMUAPP STKillNevaeh Haysset Raegan Richardson+1.6
4120-21APP STAPP STBlockedMelisa Ilterblk Charlotte Thompson, Chelsea Gilmore+3.5
4220-22APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+3.2
4320-23JMUJMUBlockedCharlotte Thompsonblk Addie Norman, Ayen Nhial+3.3
4421-23JMUAPP STKillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+1.3
4522-23APP STAPP STBlockedAddie Normanblk Chelsea Gilmore, Charlotte Thompson+3.7
4622-24APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Lindsey Large+4.1
4723-24JMUAPP ST×4KillCharlotte Thompsonset MeMe Davis+2.3
4824-24APP STAPP ST×4Attack errKennedy Louisell+8.5
4925-24APP STAPP ST×4Attack errKennedy Louisell+9.9
5026-24APP STAPP ST×4BlockedAna Toumazatosblk Chelsea Gilmore, Raegan Richardson+10.4
Set 5
10-1APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+5.4
20-2JMUJMUBlockedBella Hutchensblk Kennedy Louisell, Ayen Nhial+7.1
31-2JMUAPP STBlockedSydney Lewisblk Nevaeh Hays, Bella Hutchens+5.0
42-2APP STAPP STAceApp State+8.3
52-3APP STJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Grace Wenrich+5.9
62-4JMUJMUKillKennedy Louisellset Sydney Lewis+7.8
73-4JMUAPP STKillNevaeh Haysset Raegan Richardson+5.4
83-5APP STJMU×5Serve errApp State+5.6
93-6JMUJMU×5KillAddie Normanset Lindsey Large+6.9
103-7JMUJMU×5BlockedCharlotte Thompsonblk Ayen Nhial, Addie Norman+5.4
113-8JMUJMU×5AceKennedy Louisell+3.9
123-9JMUJMU×5AceKennedy Louisell+2.5
134-9JMUAPP STServe errKennedy Louisell+1.1
145-9APP STAPP STKillCharlotte Thompsonset MeMe Davis+2.6
155-10APP STJMUKillAddie Normanset Lindsey Large+2.6
165-11JMUJMUAceBrenna Corbin+2.1
176-11JMUAPP STAttack errBrenna Corbin+0.8
186-12APP STJMUKillAddie Normanset Lindsey Large+1.3
197-12JMUAPP ST×5KillChelsea Gilmoreset Raegan Richardson+0.6
208-12APP STAPP ST×5AceApp State+1.6
219-12APP STAPP ST×5BlockedMelisa Ilterblk Nevaeh Hays, Bella Hutchens+3.2
2210-12APP STAPP ST×5AceApp State+5.9
2311-12APP STAPP ST×5KillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+10.4
2411-13APP STJMUBad setBella Hutchens+10.2
2511-14JMUJMUAceShelby Davis+9.3
2612-14JMUAPP ST×5Attack errMelisa Ilter+2.5
2713-14APP STAPP ST×5KillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+9.2
2814-14APP STAPP ST×5AceApp State+24.0
2915-14APP STAPP ST×5BlockedKennedy Louisellblk Molly Teague, Nevaeh Hays+28.1
3016-14APP STAPP ST×5KillBella Hutchensset Raegan Richardson+33.0

Score shown after each rally, App State first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).