FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwaySOUTHLAND

0:3

HomeSOCON

Mercer def. LSU New Orleans 3–0

(25-18, 25-22, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UNO	18	22	21	0
MERCER	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MERCER above 50 · UNO below

Biggest swing: 0.9% to LSU New Orleans — set 1, UNO 2-2 MERCER. Kill by Nyakuak Lual (set by Defne Eciroglu). MERCER win probability 93% → 92%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UNO 7.7%92.3% MERCER

LSU New Orleans wins

3-0

1.0%

3-1

2.3%

3-2

4.5%

Mercer wins

3-0

48.8%

3-1

31.1%

3-2

12.4%

UNO break %: 38.5% vs this opp
MERCER break %: 49.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Nyakuak LualKill+0.9%
Kill by Nyakuak Lual (set by Defne Eciroglu)
Set 1 · UNO 2-2 MERCER · UNO 7% → 8%
02
Avery WilksBad set+0.8%
Bad set by Avery Wilks
Set 2 · UNO 6-5 MERCER · UNO 4% → 5%
03
Nyakuak LualAttack error+0.7%
Attack error by Nyakuak Lual
Set 1 · UNO 2-4 MERCER · MERCER 93% → 94%
04
Laura PivaAttack error+0.7%
Attack error by Laura Piva
Set 1 · UNO 0-2 MERCER · MERCER 93% → 94%
05
Lara MattaKill+0.6%
Kill by Lara Matta (set by Sammi Bergjans)
Set 2 · UNO 6-7 MERCER · MERCER 96% → 96%
06
Armie HallAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Armie Hall
Set 1 · UNO 2-3 MERCER · MERCER 92% → 93%
07
Lara MattaKill+0.6%
Kill by Lara Matta (set by Sammi Bergjans)
Set 2 · UNO 22-25 MERCER · MERCER 98% → 99%
08
Armie HallAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Armie Hall
Set 1 · UNO 2-5 MERCER · MERCER 94% → 94%

Official NCAA box

Box score

LSU New Orleans away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Armie HallOH	3	10	3	23	.304	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	2	12
11Laura PivaOH	3	8	5	29	.103	0	0	1	5	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
14Nyakuak LualMB	3	7	6	17	.059	0	0	2	2	0	1	2	2	9
7Olivia BartrinaOH	3	3	2	18	.056	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
8Defne EcirogluS	3	0	0	1	.000	14	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	1
22Alana PierceMB	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Mariana FrancoS	3	2	0	3	.667	13	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
4Mia LopezL/DS	3	1	1	3	.000	3	1	0	19	1	0	0	0	2
9Vladana RisticL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	0	0
18Ayen NyuarMB	2	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
6Peyton ColeL/DS	2	0	0	2	.000	1	0	2	4	1	0	0	0	0
5Ryan WilliamsOH	1	2	0	8	.250	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team totals		33	20	110	.118	31	2	10	48	6	3	6	6	61

Mercerhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Lara MattaOH	3	10	6	36	.111	1	3	1	11	0	0	0	0	13
7Avery WilksMB	3	11	1	22	.455	0	1	0	5	0	1	0	1	13
3Joselynn SanjurjoMB	3	6	4	15	.133	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
15Brooklyn PalmerOH	3	5	6	20	-.050	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	5
21Sarah FragerL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	1	0	7	0	0	0	0	2
8Sammi BergjansS	3	1	1	6	.000	31	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	1
9Aubri MartinL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	1	0	10	1	0	0	0	1
16Mikayla MiesslerOH	2	1	4	7	-.429	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
6Brooke KaouiL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
19Taylor TimkoOH	1	3	0	4	.750	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team totals		38	22	113	.142	34	6	3	55	2	2	2	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 UNO · MERCER 8

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 UNOMERCER 5

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 4 UNOMERCER 7

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 5 UNOMERCER 8

Bars above the line = Mercer leads, below = LSU New Orleans leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

LSU New Orleans

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	25%2/8
2	46%6/13	61%11/18
3	35%6/17	25%2/8
4	60%6/10	45%5/11
5	38%5/13	25%2/8
6	80%4/5	50%5/10
All	47%34/73	43%27/63

Mercer

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	38%3/8
2	40%6/15	54%7/13
3	75%6/8	45%5/11
4	55%6/11	65%11/17
5	60%6/10	63%10/16
6	71%5/7	38%3/8
All	57%36/63	53%39/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

136 rallies

Rally log

#	UNO-MERCER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.6
2	0-2	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Laura Piva		+0.7
3	1-2	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Laura Piva	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.6
4	2-2	UNO	UNO	Kill	Nyakuak Lual	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.9
5	2-3	UNO	MERCER×5	Attack err	Armie Hall		+0.6
6	2-4	MERCER	MERCER×5	Attack err	Nyakuak Lual		+0.7
7	2-5	MERCER	MERCER×5	Attack err	Armie Hall		+0.6
8	2-6	MERCER	MERCER×5	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.5
9	2-7	MERCER	MERCER×5	Attack err	Laura Piva	blk Avery Wilks	+0.4
10	3-7	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Armie Hall	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.3
11	3-8	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.3
12	4-8	MERCER	UNO	Attack err	Brooklyn Palmer		+0.3
13	4-9	UNO	MERCER×4	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.3
14	4-10	MERCER	MERCER×4	Attack err	Nyakuak Lual		+0.3
15	4-11	MERCER	MERCER×4	Attack err	Olivia Bartrina		+0.2
16	4-12	MERCER	MERCER×4	Ace	MERCER server	aced Mia Lopez	+0.2
17	5-12	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Olivia Bartrina	set Mariana Franco	+0.1
18	5-13	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
19	6-13	MERCER	UNO	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.1
20	7-13	UNO	UNO	Attack err	Mikayla Miessler	blk Armie Hall	+0.2
21	7-14	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Mikayla Miessler	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
22	8-14	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Armie Hall	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.2
23	8-15	UNO	MERCER	Attack err	Alana Pierce		+0.2
24	8-16	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
25	9-16	MERCER	UNO×4	Kill	Armie Hall	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.1
26	10-16	UNO	UNO×4	Attack err	Lara Matta		+0.2
27	11-16	UNO	UNO×4	Attack err	Lara Matta		+0.3
28	12-16	UNO	UNO×4	Attack err	Brooklyn Palmer		+0.4
29	12-17	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.4
30	12-18	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.3
31	13-18	MERCER	UNO	Attack err	Lara Matta		+0.2
32	13-19	UNO	MERCER×3	Serve err	UNO server		+0.3
33	13-20	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Mariana Franco	+0.2
34	13-21	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
35	14-21	MERCER	UNO×4	Kill	Laura Piva	set Mariana Franco	+0.0
36	15-21	UNO	UNO×4	Attack err	Mikayla Miessler		+0.1
37	16-21	UNO	UNO×4	Kill	Nyakuak Lual	set Mariana Franco	+0.2
38	17-21	UNO	UNO×4	Attack err	Brooklyn Palmer	blk Nyakuak Lual	+0.3
39	17-22	UNO	MERCER	Serve err	UNO server		+0.4
40	18-22	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Olivia Bartrina	set Mariana Franco	+0.2
41	18-23	UNO	MERCER×3	Kill	Sammi Bergjans	set Lara Matta	+0.3
42	18-24	MERCER	MERCER×3	Bad set	Mariana Franco		+0.1
43	18-25	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Ayen Nyuar		+0.5
2	0-2	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Armie Hall		+0.5
3	1-2	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Mia Lopez	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.4
4	1-3	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.4
5	2-3	MERCER	UNO	Attack err	Lara Matta		+0.4
6	3-3	UNO	UNO	Kill	Nyakuak Lual	set Mariana Franco	+0.6
7	3-4	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.4
8	4-4	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Laura Piva	set Mariana Franco	+0.5
9	4-5	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.5
10	5-5	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Nyakuak Lual	set Mariana Franco	+0.5
11	6-5	UNO	UNO	Bad set	Avery Wilks		+0.8
12	6-6	UNO	MERCER×7	Serve err	UNO server		+0.5
13	6-7	MERCER	MERCER×7	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.6
14	6-8	MERCER	MERCER×7	Attack err	Laura Piva		+0.6
15	6-9	MERCER	MERCER×7	Attack err	Ayen Nyuar	blk Joselynn Sanjurjo, Mikayla Miessler	+0.5
16	6-10	MERCER	MERCER×7	Kill	Avery Wilks		+0.4
17	6-11	MERCER	MERCER×7	Attack err	Olivia Bartrina		+0.3
18	6-12	MERCER	MERCER×7	Attack err	Laura Piva	blk Joselynn Sanjurjo	+0.2
19	7-12	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Laura Piva	set Mariana Franco	+0.2
20	8-12	UNO	UNO	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+0.3
21	8-13	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
22	9-13	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Armie Hall	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.2
23	9-14	UNO	MERCER	Serve err	UNO server		+0.2
24	9-15	MERCER	MERCER	Ace	MERCER server	aced Team	+0.2
25	10-15	MERCER	UNO	Attack err	Lara Matta	blk Armie Hall, Ayen Nyuar	+0.1
26	10-16	UNO	MERCER×3	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
27	10-17	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Sarah Frager	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
28	10-18	MERCER	MERCER×3	Ace	MERCER server	aced Peyton Cole	+0.1
29	11-18	MERCER	UNO	Attack err	Brooklyn Palmer	blk Nyakuak Lual, Laura Piva	+0.0
30	11-19	UNO	MERCER	Attack err	Nyakuak Lual		+0.1
31	12-19	MERCER	UNO	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.0
32	13-19	UNO	UNO	Kill	Olivia Bartrina	set Mariana Franco	+0.1
33	13-20	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
34	14-20	MERCER	UNO	Attack err	Brooklyn Palmer		+0.1
35	14-21	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
36	15-21	MERCER	UNO×3	Kill	Laura Piva	set Mariana Franco	+0.0
37	16-21	UNO	UNO×3	Attack err	Mikayla Miessler		+0.1
38	17-21	UNO	UNO×3	Attack err	Mikayla Miessler		+0.2
39	17-22	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
40	17-23	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Laura Piva		+0.1
41	18-23	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Armie Hall	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.0
42	18-24	UNO	MERCER	Serve err	UNO server		+0.1
43	19-24	MERCER	UNO×4	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+0.0
44	20-24	UNO	UNO×4	Ace	UNO server	aced Aubri Martin	+0.1
45	21-24	UNO	UNO×4	Attack err	Sammi Bergjans		+0.2
46	22-24	UNO	UNO×4	Kill	Nyakuak Lual	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.4
47	22-25	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.6
Set 3
1	1-0	UNO	UNO	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+0.3
2	2-0	UNO	UNO	Kill	Armie Hall	set Mia Lopez	+0.3
3	2-1	UNO	MERCER×3	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
4	2-2	MERCER	MERCER×3	Attack err	Mia Lopez		+0.3
5	2-3	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Lara Matta	set Aubri Martin	+0.3
6	3-3	MERCER	UNO×5	Kill	Armie Hall	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.2
7	4-3	UNO	UNO×5	Attack err	Lara Matta	blk Armie Hall, Nyakuak Lual	+0.3
8	5-3	UNO	UNO×5	Kill	Nyakuak Lual	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.4
9	6-3	UNO	UNO×5	Attack err	Avery Wilks		+0.4
10	7-3	UNO	UNO×5	Kill	Armie Hall	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.4
11	7-4	UNO	MERCER	Attack err	Nyakuak Lual		+0.3
12	8-4	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Armie Hall	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.4
13	8-5	UNO	MERCER×8	Serve err	UNO server		+0.3
14	8-6	MERCER	MERCER×8	Attack err	Nyakuak Lual		+0.4
15	8-7	MERCER	MERCER×8	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.4
16	8-8	MERCER	MERCER×8	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.4
17	8-9	MERCER	MERCER×8	Ace	MERCER server	aced Vladana Ristic	+0.3
18	8-10	MERCER	MERCER×8	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.3
19	8-11	MERCER	MERCER×8	Ace	MERCER server	aced Team	+0.2
20	8-12	MERCER	MERCER×8	Ace	MERCER server	aced Team	+0.2
21	9-12	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Mariana Franco		+0.1
22	10-12	UNO	UNO	Attack err	Brooklyn Palmer	blk Laura Piva	+0.2
23	10-13	UNO	MERCER	Serve err	UNO server		+0.2
24	11-13	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Nyakuak Lual	set Mariana Franco	+0.2
25	11-14	UNO	MERCER	Serve err	UNO server		+0.2
26	12-14	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Laura Piva	set Mariana Franco	+0.2
27	13-14	UNO	UNO	Ace	UNO server	aced Brooke Kaoui	+0.4
28	13-15	UNO	MERCER	Serve err	UNO server		+0.3
29	14-15	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Laura Piva	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.3
30	14-16	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Aubri Martin	+0.3
31	14-17	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.3
32	15-17	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Ryan Williams	set Mia Lopez	+0.2
33	15-18	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.3
34	16-18	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Armie Hall	set Defne Eciroglu	+0.2
35	17-18	UNO	UNO	Kill	Ryan Williams	set Peyton Cole	+0.4
36	17-19	UNO	MERCER×3	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.4
37	17-20	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Mia Lopez	+0.4
38	17-21	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.3
39	18-21	MERCER	UNO	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.1
40	18-22	UNO	MERCER	Serve err	UNO server		+0.2
41	18-23	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Nyakuak Lual		+0.1
42	19-23	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Mariana Franco	set Mia Lopez	+0.0
43	20-23	UNO	UNO	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+0.1
44	20-24	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
45	21-24	MERCER	UNO	Kill	Laura Piva	set Mariana Franco	+0.1
46	21-25	UNO	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, LSU New Orleans first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.