Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 17, 2026Watch on ESPN+

American def. Colgate 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: American 80.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

American won at Colgate 3-1 (12-25, 25-15, 25-22, 25-19) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. Elise Sterling led American with 12 kills; Colgate's Tiana Owens had a match-high 14.

Data through · final Oct 17

Set1234Sets
AMER122525253
COLGAT251522191

Match story · written from the play-by-play

American led in all four phases.

No single rally moved win probability more than 4.7 points. Colgate peaked at 45% in Set 2. These are the numbers behind it. RallyIQ gave American 81% before first serve.

AmericanColgate
  • Longest run+1
    54

    American scored 5 straight in the second set to turn a 0–2 deficit into a 5–2 lead. Final score of the set: 25–15.

Colgate above 50American belowMax swing 4.7%

AmericanColgate

Hitting
American .245·Colgate .202
Aces
American 5·Colgate 6
Serve err
American 11·Colgate 15
Blocks
American 11·Colgate 54 BS · 14 BA vs 3 BS · 4 BA
Digs
American 37·Colgate 38

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Colgate above 50 · American below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.7% AMERrally 168 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.7% to American — set 3, AMER 23-21 COLGAT. Aubrey Anders stuffed by Deniz Dakak & Prinzez Zeck. COLGAT win probability 21% → 16%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

AMER 75.1%24.9% COLGAT

American wins

3-0
27.1%
3-1
28.7%
3-2
19.3%

Colgate wins

3-0
4.4%
3-1
8.5%
3-2
12.0%
AMER break %
44.8% vs this opp
COLGAT break %
39.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Aubrey Anders stuffed by Deniz Dakak & Prinzez Zeck

    Set 3 · AMER 23-21 COLGAT · AMER 79% → 84%

  2. 02

    Kill by Charlotte Goldfeder (set by Deniz Dakak)

    Set 3 · AMER 22-21 COLGAT · COLGAT 17% → 21%

  3. 03
    Julia OsterAce+4.5%

    Ace by Julia Oster on Salme Hollas

    Set 3 · AMER 12-15 COLGAT · COLGAT 35% → 39%

  4. 04

    Kill by Charlotte Goldfeder (set by Deniz Dakak)

    Set 3 · AMER 12-14 COLGAT · COLGAT 30% → 35%

  5. 05

    Stella Labrecque stuffed by Prinzez Zeck & Salme Hollas

    Set 3 · AMER 15-15 COLGAT · AMER 68% → 72%

  6. 06
    Tiana OwensAttack error+4.3%

    Attack error by Tiana Owens

    Set 3 · AMER 16-15 COLGAT · AMER 72% → 76%

  7. 07
    Charlotte GoldfederAttack error+4.2%

    Attack error by Charlotte Goldfeder

    Set 3 · AMER 14-15 COLGAT · AMER 63% → 68%

  8. 08
    Sophie DufourKill+4.2%

    Kill by Sophie Dufour (set by Deniz Dakak)

    Set 3 · AMER 24-21 COLGAT · AMER 84% → 88%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412422.3640010012214
49318.33300000052.511.5
4509.55632227022310
45211.27300010031.56.5
43314.000013112111.55.5
4001.000423500002
49427.185100100009
4000–302910000
4000–100120000
2228.00000020010.52.5
Team totals4518110.245415113764141187
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414536.25011242010.515.5
47111.54500000212.59.5
47416.188000200007
46312.25010000010.56.5
4216.167361370111.54.5
33521-.095002010003
4000–121800002
4000–2131400001
3000–013300001
26312.250000000006
2000–001000000
Team totals4522114.2024161538534581

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

American vs Colgate

Season series · American leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 AMER · COLGAT 4

Set 1

12-25

Longest run 1 AMERCOLGAT 4

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 5 AMERCOLGAT 2

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 5 AMERCOLGAT 3

Set 4

25-19

Longest run 4 AMERCOLGAT 3

Bars above the line = Colgate leads, below = American leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

American

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%10/18
47%7/15
2
69%9/13
61%14/23
3
75%9/12
25%3/12
4
60%9/15
18%2/11
5
67%8/12
43%6/14
6
50%6/12
36%4/11
All
62%51/82
42%36/86

Colgate

SlotSideout %Break %
1
40%10/25
47%7/15
2
64%9/14
41%7/17
3
75%9/12
31%4/13
4
80%8/10
36%5/14
5
50%7/14
33%4/12
6
64%7/11
36%4/11
All
58%50/86
38%31/82

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

168 rallies

#AMER-COLGATSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0AMERAMERAttack errMorgan Reese+1.6
21-1AMERCOLGATServe errAmerican+1.3
32-1COLGATAMERServe errColgate+1.2
42-2AMERCOLGAT×3Attack errSalme Hollas+1.3
52-3COLGATCOLGAT×3BlockedElise Sterlingblk Julia Headley+1.9
62-4COLGATCOLGAT×3AceColgateaced Salme Hollas+2.0
73-4COLGATAMERServe errColgate+1.4
83-5AMERCOLGATKillJulia Headleyset Ava Schabes+1.6
93-6COLGATCOLGATAceColgateaced Olivia Miller+2.2
104-6COLGATAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+1.4
114-7AMERCOLGAT×3KillMorgan Reeseset Ava Schabes+1.7
124-8COLGATCOLGAT×3KillJulia Headleyset Ava Schabes+2.3
134-9COLGATCOLGAT×3KillMorgan Reeseset Ava Schabes+2.2
145-9COLGATAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+1.3
155-10AMERCOLGATServe errAmerican+1.7
166-10COLGATAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+1.3
176-11AMERCOLGATAttack errSophie Dufour+1.7
186-12COLGATCOLGATAceColgateaced Bella Marrero+2.0
197-12COLGATAMERServe errColgate+1.1
207-13AMERCOLGAT×4KillTiana Owensset Ava Schabes+1.6
217-14COLGATCOLGAT×4KillMorgan Reeseset Stella Labrecque+1.7
227-15COLGATCOLGAT×4BlockedCarly Sciborskiblk Stella Labrecque, Tiana Owens+1.3
237-16COLGATCOLGAT×4KillTiana Owensset Ava Schabes+1.0
248-16COLGATAMERAttack errTiana Owens+0.4
258-17AMERCOLGATBad setDeniz Dakak+0.7
268-18COLGATCOLGATAttack errSalme Hollas+0.6
279-18COLGATAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.2
289-19AMERCOLGATKillCharlotte Goldfederset Ava Schabes+0.4
2910-19COLGATAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.2
3010-20AMERCOLGATServe errSalme Hollas+0.3
3111-20COLGATAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.1
3211-21AMERCOLGATKillAva Schabesset Sydney Raszewski+0.2
3311-22COLGATCOLGATAttack errSalme Hollas+0.1
3412-22COLGATAMERServe errGabrielle Emch·
3512-23AMERCOLGAT×3Serve errDeniz Dakak+0.1
3612-24COLGATCOLGAT×3KillStella Labrecqueset Ava Schabes·
3712-25COLGATCOLGAT×3Attack errSophie Dufour·
Set 2
10-1COLGATCOLGATAttack errPrinzez Zeck+2.8
20-2COLGATCOLGATAttack errCarly Sciborski+3.0
31-2COLGATAMER×5KillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+2.1
42-2AMERAMER×5Attack errCharlotte Goldfeder+2.8
53-2AMERAMER×5KillSalme Hollasset Alex Ioannou+2.6
64-2AMERAMER×5AceAlex Ioannou+2.4
75-2AMERAMER×5AceAlex Ioannouaced Tiana Owens+2.2
85-3AMERCOLGATServe errAlex Ioannou+1.6
96-3COLGATAMERServe errMorgan Reese+1.6
107-3AMERAMERBlockedStella Labrecqueblk Elise Sterling+1.9
117-4AMERCOLGATServe errBella Marrero+1.3
127-5COLGATCOLGATKillTiana Owensset Hannah Langton+2.2
138-5COLGATAMERServe errHannah Langton+1.7
148-6AMERCOLGATKillTiana Owensset Ava Schabes+1.7
159-6COLGATAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+1.7
1610-6AMERAMERBlockedTiana Owensblk Elise Sterling, Deniz Dakak+2.0
1710-7AMERCOLGATServe errSalme Hollas+1.4
1811-7COLGATAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+1.5
1912-7AMERAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+1.7
2012-8AMERCOLGATKillJulia Headleyset Ava Schabes+1.1
2113-8COLGATAMER×3KillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+1.2
2214-8AMERAMER×3BlockedMorgan Reeseblk Carly Sciborski, Prinzez Zeck+1.3
2315-8AMERAMER×3BlockedMorgan Reeseblk Carly Sciborski, Prinzez Zeck+0.9
2415-9AMERCOLGATServe errDeniz Dakak+0.5
2516-9COLGATAMER×4KillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.6
2617-9AMERAMER×4KillPrinzez Zeckset Bella Marrero+0.5
2718-9AMERAMER×4KillPrinzez Zeck+0.3
2819-9AMERAMER×4Attack errCharlotte Goldfeder+0.2
2919-10AMERCOLGATServe errAlex Ioannou+0.1
3019-11COLGATCOLGATKillTiana Owens+0.1
3120-11COLGATAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+0.2
3220-12AMERCOLGATKillTiana Owensset Ava Schabes+0.1
3321-12COLGATAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.1
3422-12AMERAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Alex Ioannou+0.1
3522-13AMERCOLGATKillTiana Owensset Ava Schabes·
3622-14COLGATCOLGATBlockedElise Sterlingblk Julia Headley·
3723-14COLGATAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.1
3823-15AMERCOLGATAttack errElise Sterling·
3924-15COLGATAMERServe errTiana Owens·
4025-15AMERAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak·
Set 3
11-0AMERAMERAceDeniz Dakak+2.5
22-0AMERAMERBlockedMorgan Reeseblk Prinzez Zeck, Carly Sciborski+2.3
32-1AMERCOLGATKillStella Labrecqueset Ava Schabes+1.7
42-2COLGATCOLGATKillCharlotte Goldfederset Ava Schabes+2.6
53-2COLGATAMERServe errJulia Oster+1.9
63-3AMERCOLGATKillTiana Owensset Ava Schabes+2.0
74-3COLGATAMERKillSalme Hollasset Deniz Dakak+2.0
84-4AMERCOLGATKillCharlotte Goldfederset Ava Schabes+2.1
94-5COLGATCOLGATBlockedElise Sterlingblk Ava Schabes+3.1
105-5COLGATAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+2.2
115-6AMERCOLGATKillTiana Owensset Ava Schabes+2.4
125-7COLGATCOLGATAceTiana Owens+3.4
136-7COLGATAMER×5Serve errTiana Owens+2.3
147-7AMERAMER×5AceSalme Hollasaced Morgan Reese+3.2
158-7AMERAMER×5Attack errMorgan Reese+3.0
169-7AMERAMER×5Attack errJulia Headley+2.8
1710-7AMERAMER×5KillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+2.5
1810-8AMERCOLGAT×3KillJulia Headleyset Ava Schabes+1.8
1910-9COLGATCOLGAT×3Attack errSophie Dufour+2.8
2010-10COLGATCOLGAT×3KillAubrey Andersset Ava Schabes+3.3
2111-10COLGATAMERBlockedStella Labrecqueblk Deniz Dakak+2.5
2211-11AMERCOLGATKillStella Labrecqueset Ava Schabes+2.6
2311-12COLGATCOLGATKillAubrey Andersset Hannah Langton+3.9
2412-12COLGATAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Sophie Dufour+2.8
2512-13AMERCOLGAT×3KillStella Labrecqueset Ava Schabes+3.1
2612-14COLGATCOLGAT×3KillCharlotte Goldfederset Deniz Dakak+4.4
2712-15COLGATCOLGAT×3AceJulia Osteraced Salme Hollas+4.5
2813-15COLGATAMER×4Serve errJulia Oster+2.8
2914-15AMERAMER×4Attack errCharlotte Goldfeder+4.2
3015-15AMERAMER×4BlockedStella Labrecqueblk Prinzez Zeck, Salme Hollas+4.4
3116-15AMERAMER×4Attack errTiana Owens+4.3
3216-16AMERCOLGATKillTiana Owensset Ava Schabes+3.3
3317-16COLGATAMERServe errHannah Langton+3.3
3418-16AMERAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+4.1
3518-17AMERCOLGATKillCharlotte Goldfederset Ava Schabes+2.9
3619-17COLGATAMERBlockedAva Schabesblk Salme Hollas+3.2
3719-18AMERCOLGATKillTiana Owensset Ava Schabes+3.1
3820-18COLGATAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+3.5
3920-19AMERCOLGATKillJulia Headleyset Ava Schabes+3.2
4021-19COLGATAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+3.8
4122-19AMERAMERAttack errAubrey Anders+4.0
4222-20AMERCOLGATKillTiana Owensset Ava Schabes+2.0
4322-21COLGATCOLGATKillCharlotte Goldfederset Deniz Dakak+4.6
4423-21COLGATAMERBlockedAubrey Andersblk Deniz Dakak, Prinzez Zeck+4.7
4524-21AMERAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+4.2
4624-22AMERCOLGATKillStella Labrecqueset Ava Schabes+1.3
4725-22COLGATAMERKillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+2.7
Set 4
11-0COLGATAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+1.4
22-0AMERAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+1.8
32-1AMERCOLGATKillAubrey Andersset Ava Schabes+1.4
43-1COLGATAMERServe errJulia Oster+1.4
53-2AMERCOLGATKillCharlotte Goldfederset Ava Schabes+1.4
64-2COLGATAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+1.4
75-2AMERAMERAttack errTiana Owens+1.7
85-3AMERCOLGATKillJulia Headleyset Ava Schabes+1.3
96-3COLGATAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Olivia Miller+1.3
107-3AMERAMERBlockedTiana Owensblk Deniz Dakak+1.5
117-4AMERCOLGATKillJulia Headleyset Ava Schabes+1.1
128-4COLGATAMERKillSophie Dufourset Deniz Dakak+1.1
139-4AMERAMERAttack errAubrey Anders+1.3
149-5AMERCOLGATAttack errPrinzez Zeck+0.8
1510-5COLGATAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.9
1610-6AMERCOLGATKillAva Schabesset Tiana Owens+0.8
1711-6COLGATAMERServe errAva Schabes+0.9
1811-7AMERCOLGATKillAubrey Andersset Ava Schabes+0.9
1912-7COLGATAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+1.0
2012-8AMERCOLGATServe errBella Marrero+0.9
2113-8COLGATAMERKillZedo Yilmazset Alex Ioannou+1.0
2213-9AMERCOLGATKillTiana Owensset Ava Schabes+0.8
2314-9COLGATAMERServe errSydney Raszewski+1.0
2414-10AMERCOLGATServe errSalme Hollas+0.8
2514-11COLGATCOLGATBlockedSophie Dufourblk Ava Schabes, Julia Headley+1.5
2615-11COLGATAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+1.3
2715-12AMERCOLGATKillAubrey Andersset Ava Schabes+1.2
2815-13COLGATCOLGATAttack errPrinzez Zeck+2.1
2916-13COLGATAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Bella Marrero+1.7
3017-13AMERAMERAceDeniz Dakakaced Tiana Owens+1.9
3117-14AMERCOLGATKillStella Labrecqueset Ava Schabes+1.2
3218-14COLGATAMER×4Serve errAva Schabes+1.4
3319-14AMERAMER×4KillCarly Sciborskiset Bella Marrero+1.4
3420-14AMERAMER×4KillZedo Yilmazset Ava Schabes+0.8
3521-14AMERAMER×4KillCarly Sciborskiset Deniz Dakak+0.4
3621-15AMERCOLGATKillAubrey Andersset Ava Schabes+0.2
3722-15COLGATAMERKillPrinzez Zeckset Deniz Dakak+0.3
3823-15AMERAMERBlockedCharlotte Goldfederblk Zedo Yilmaz, Elise Sterling+0.1
3923-16AMERCOLGATKillTiana Owensset Ava Schabes·
4024-16COLGATAMERKillElise Sterlingset Deniz Dakak+0.1
4124-17AMERCOLGAT×3Attack errZedo Yilmaz·
4224-18COLGATCOLGAT×3Attack errZedo Yilmaz·
4324-19COLGATCOLGAT×3AceSydney Raszewskiaced Olivia Miller+0.1
4425-19COLGATAMERKillDeniz Dakakset Alex Ioannou+0.1

Score shown after each rally, American first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).