FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayMVC

3:0

HomeMAC

Illinois St. def. Central Mich. 3–0

(25-18, 25-22, 25-12)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ILL ST	25	25	25	3
C MICH	18	22	12	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

C MICH above 50 · ILL ST below

Biggest swing: 1.7% to Central Mich. — set 2, ILL ST 20-21 C MICH. Attack error by Jillian Ferrill. C MICH win probability 4% → 6%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ILL ST 93.6%6.4% C MICH

Illinois St. wins

3-0

51.6%

3-1

30.6%

3-2

11.3%

Central Mich. wins

3-0

0.8%

3-1

1.9%

3-2

3.8%

ILL ST break %: 48.5% vs this opp
C MICH break %: 37.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jillian FerrillAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Jillian Ferrill
Set 2 · ILL ST 20-21 C MICH · C MICH 4% → 6%
02
ILL ST serverAce+1.6%
Illinois St. ace on Team
Set 2 · ILL ST 22-21 C MICH · ILL ST 95% → 97%
03
ILL ST serverAce+1.4%
Illinois St. ace on Team
Set 2 · ILL ST 23-21 C MICH · ILL ST 97% → 98%
04
Jaliyah CohnesKill+1.2%
Kill by Jaliyah Cohnes (set by Rainey Weidman)
Set 2 · ILL ST 19-19 C MICH · C MICH 3% → 4%
05
Ruth ZieglerKill+1.2%
Kill by Ruth Ziegler (set by Ella Craggs)
Set 2 · ILL ST 21-21 C MICH · ILL ST 94% → 95%
06
Jillian FerrillAttack error+1.0%
Jillian Ferrill stuffed by Lilly Mullholand & Brenna Storz
Set 1 · ILL ST 9-9 C MICH · C MICH 6% → 7%
07
Jillian FerrillAttack error+1.0%
Jillian Ferrill stuffed by Lilly Mullholand & Brenna Storz
Set 2 · ILL ST 20-20 C MICH · C MICH 3% → 4%
08
Taylor CripeKill+1.0%
Kill by Taylor Cripe (set by Brytn Lyon)
Set 1 · ILL ST 3-4 C MICH · C MICH 7% → 8%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Illinois St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Jillian FerrillOH	3	18	5	32	.406	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	18
1Ruth ZieglerOPP	3	7	2	15	.333	1	8	1	2	0	1	0.5	15.5
11Jillian GregoryOH	3	7	2	18	.278	0	2	1	5	1	0	0	9
6Logan GrevengoedMB	3	6	4	18	.111	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	6
9Ella CraggsS	3	0	0	0	–	19	0	0	14	0	0	0	0
15Addisyn PohlMB	1	1	1	3	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
5Samantha BunchS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	0	1	9	1	0	0	0
10Oliwia CaputaOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	0
17Peyton TurnerDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
16Abby ReckOH	2	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
7Sidney WrightMB	2	2	0	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
21Audrey ClarkS	2	0	0	0	–	12	1	0	8	0	0	0	1
18Ayla KlingenbergMB	1	0	1	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Alaina KraemerOPP	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Ella KohnenS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
2Emilija ArsicOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
4Madison SmithL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team totals		45	18	107	.252	41	11	7	57	3	2	1	75

Central Mich.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Taylor CripeOH	3	10	2	36	.222	0	1	1	8	4	1	4	3	14
6Brenna StorzMB	3	2	1	6	.167	0	0	1	5	0	1	6	4	6
12Teyhlor ThomasMB	3	2	1	11	.091	0	0	0	1	0	0	6	3	5
14Brytn LyonS	3	2	0	6	.333	17	1	0	7	0	0	2	1	4
13Lilly MullholandMB	3	1	2	8	-.125	1	0	2	2	0	0	2	1	2
9Alexis CarperOH	2	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
22Meisha SykesMB	3	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
1Addison SamolinskiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
2Audrey HackneyS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Ceci BustamanteL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	0
4Rainey WeidmanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
3Jaliyah CohnesOH	2	2	1	12	.083	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	3
8Cheyenne GunnerOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		23	11	93	.129	22	3	6	39	11	2	20	12	52

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 13 ILL ST · C MICH 5

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 6 ILL STC MICH 4

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 4 ILL STC MICH 5

Set 3

25-12

Longest run 13 ILL STC MICH 3

Bars above the line = Central Mich. leads, below = Illinois St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Illinois St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	74%14/19
2	64%7/11	68%15/22
3	50%5/10	38%3/8
4	63%5/8	55%6/11
5	71%5/7	38%3/8
6	63%5/8	0%0/5
All	63%34/54	56%41/73

Central Mich.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	39%7/18	33%3/9
2	55%6/11	46%6/13
3	56%5/9	14%1/7
4	45%5/11	58%7/12
5	83%5/6	29%2/7
6	22%4/18	17%1/6
All	44%32/73	37%20/54

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	ILL ST-C MICH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.5
2	2-0	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Lilly Mullholand		+0.6
3	2-1	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Alexis Carper	set Brytn Lyon	+0.5
4	2-2	C MICH	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Ceci Bustamante	+0.8
5	3-2	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.5
6	3-3	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Lilly Mullholand	set Brytn Lyon	+0.6
7	3-4	C MICH	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+1.0
8	4-4	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Audrey Clark	+0.7
9	4-5	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Teyhlor Thomas	set Brytn Lyon	+0.8
10	5-5	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+0.7
11	5-6	ILL ST	C MICH	Attack err	Ruth Ziegler	blk Teyhlor Thomas, Taylor Cripe	+0.8
12	6-6	C MICH	ILL ST	Serve err	C MICH server		+0.7
13	6-7	ILL ST	C MICH	Attack err	Jillian Gregory	blk Teyhlor Thomas, Brytn Lyon	+0.8
14	7-7	C MICH	ILL ST×3	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+0.7
15	8-7	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Samantha Bunch	+0.9
16	9-7	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Samantha Bunch	+0.8
17	9-8	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Meisha Sykes	set Brytn Lyon	+0.6
18	9-9	C MICH	C MICH	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill	blk Lilly Mullholand, Brenna Storz	+1.0
19	10-9	C MICH	ILL ST×6	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Ella Craggs	+0.7
20	11-9	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Ruth Ziegler	+0.9
21	12-9	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Addisyn Pohl	+0.7
22	13-9	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Taylor Cripe	+0.6
23	14-9	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+0.4
24	15-9	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Ceci Bustamante	+0.3
25	15-10	ILL ST	C MICH	Attack err	Addisyn Pohl		+0.2
26	16-10	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
27	17-10	ILL ST	ILL ST	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Ceci Bustamante	+0.2
28	17-11	ILL ST	C MICH	Attack err	Ayla Klingenberg	blk Brenna Storz	+0.1
29	18-11	C MICH	ILL ST×3	Serve err	C MICH server		+0.1
30	19-11	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Audrey Clark	+0.1
31	20-11	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Bad set	Brytn Lyon		+0.0
32	20-12	ILL ST	C MICH×4	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
33	20-13	C MICH	C MICH×4	Attack err	Logan Grevengoed		+0.0
34	20-14	C MICH	C MICH×4	Attack err	Logan Grevengoed	blk Taylor Cripe, Teyhlor Thomas	+0.1
35	20-15	C MICH	C MICH×4	Attack err	Logan Grevengoed	blk Taylor Cripe	+0.2
36	21-15	C MICH	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Teyhlor Thomas		+0.2
37	22-15	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Audrey Clark	+0.1
38	23-15	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
39	23-16	ILL ST	C MICH	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
40	23-17	C MICH	C MICH	Kill	Alexis Carper	set Brytn Lyon	+0.0
41	24-17	C MICH	ILL ST	Attack err	Alexis Carper		+0.0
42	24-18	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.0
43	25-18	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	ILL ST	C MICH	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.4
2	0-2	C MICH	C MICH	Attack err	Ruth Ziegler		+0.6
3	1-2	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.4
4	1-3	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.5
5	2-3	C MICH	ILL ST×3	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+0.4
6	3-3	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+0.6
7	4-3	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Audrey Clark	+0.5
8	4-4	ILL ST	C MICH×5	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill	blk Teyhlor Thomas, Brenna Storz	+0.4
9	4-5	C MICH	C MICH×5	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.6
10	4-6	C MICH	C MICH×5	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.7
11	4-7	C MICH	C MICH×5	Kill	Teyhlor Thomas	set Brytn Lyon	+0.8
12	4-8	C MICH	C MICH×5	Attack err	Logan Grevengoed	blk Teyhlor Thomas, Brytn Lyon	+0.9
13	5-8	C MICH	ILL ST×4	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Audrey Clark	+0.5
14	6-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Kill	Jillian Gregory		+0.8
15	7-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Attack err	Taylor Cripe		+0.7
16	8-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Bad set	Brytn Lyon		+0.7
17	8-9	ILL ST	C MICH	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.6
18	9-9	C MICH	ILL ST	Attack err	Alexis Carper		+0.5
19	9-10	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Brytn Lyon	set Addison Samolinski	+0.6
20	10-10	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Audrey Clark	+0.5
21	10-11	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Meisha Sykes	set Brytn Lyon	+0.6
22	11-11	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+0.6
23	11-12	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Brenna Storz	set Brytn Lyon	+0.7
24	12-12	C MICH	ILL ST	Serve err	C MICH server		+0.6
25	13-12	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+0.8
26	13-13	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.6
27	14-13	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.6
28	14-14	ILL ST	C MICH	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill	blk Teyhlor Thomas, Brenna Storz	+0.7
29	15-14	C MICH	ILL ST	Serve err	C MICH server		+0.6
30	16-14	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Peyton Turner	+0.7
31	16-15	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.6
32	17-15	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+0.6
33	18-15	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Sidney Wright	set Audrey Clark	+0.6
34	18-16	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Ruth Ziegler	+0.4
35	19-16	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Sidney Wright	set Audrey Clark	+0.5
36	19-17	ILL ST	C MICH×3	Attack err	Jillian Gregory		+0.4
37	19-18	C MICH	C MICH×3	Ace	C MICH server	aced Samantha Bunch	+0.8
38	19-19	C MICH	C MICH×3	Kill	Jaliyah Cohnes	set Rainey Weidman	+1.2
39	20-19	C MICH	ILL ST	Attack err	Brenna Storz		+0.9
40	20-20	ILL ST	C MICH	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill	blk Lilly Mullholand, Brenna Storz	+1.0
41	20-21	C MICH	C MICH	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill		+1.7
42	21-21	C MICH	ILL ST×4	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+1.2
43	22-21	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+1.6
44	23-21	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+1.4
45	24-21	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Jaliyah Cohnes	+0.8
46	24-22	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.2
47	25-22	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Brenna Storz	+0.5
Set 3
1	1-0	C MICH	ILL ST×4	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
2	2-0	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Attack err	Lilly Mullholand		+0.2
3	3-0	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
4	4-0	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Taylor Cripe	+0.1
5	4-1	ILL ST	C MICH	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.1
6	4-2	C MICH	C MICH	Attack err	Abby Reck	blk Taylor Cripe, Brenna Storz	+0.2
7	5-2	C MICH	ILL ST	Attack err	Taylor Cripe		+0.1
8	5-3	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Brenna Storz	set Lilly Mullholand	+0.1
9	6-3	C MICH	ILL ST	Serve err	C MICH server		+0.1
10	6-4	ILL ST	C MICH	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.1
11	7-4	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Kohnen	+0.1
12	7-5	ILL ST	C MICH	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.1
13	7-6	C MICH	C MICH	Ace	C MICH server	aced Jillian Gregory	+0.2
14	8-6	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Kohnen	+0.2
15	8-7	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Jaliyah Cohnes	set Brytn Lyon	+0.2
16	8-8	C MICH	C MICH	Bad set	Oliwia Caputa		+0.3
17	9-8	C MICH	ILL ST×13	Serve err	C MICH server		+0.2
18	10-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×13	Attack err	Meisha Sykes		+0.3
19	11-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×13	Attack err	Jaliyah Cohnes	blk Ruth Ziegler, Abby Reck	+0.2
20	12-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×13	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Samantha Bunch	+0.2
21	13-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×13	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+0.1
22	14-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×13	Kill	Abby Reck	set Rainey Weidman	+0.1
23	15-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×13	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.1
24	16-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×13	Attack err	Cheyenne Gunner		+0.0
25	17-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×13	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Samantha Bunch	+0.0
26	18-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×13	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.0
27	19-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×13	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.0
28	20-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×13	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Taylor Cripe	+0.0
29	21-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×13	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+0.0
30	21-9	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Brytn Lyon		+0.0
31	22-9	C MICH	ILL ST×3	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Samantha Bunch	+0.0
32	23-9	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Taylor Cripe	+0.0
33	24-9	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.0
34	24-10	ILL ST	C MICH×3	Attack err	Alaina Kraemer		+0.0
35	24-11	C MICH	C MICH×3	Ace	C MICH server	aced Madison Smith	+0.0
36	24-12	C MICH	C MICH×3	Attack err	Abby Reck	blk Brenna Storz, Taylor Cripe	+0.0
37	25-12	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Illinois St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.