FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayMVC

3:0

HomeMAC

Illinois St. def. Central Mich. 3–0

(25-20, 25-15, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ILL ST	25	25	25	3
C MICH	20	15	19	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

C MICH above 50 · ILL ST below

Biggest swing: 1.3% to Central Mich. — set 1, ILL ST 5-8 C MICH. Kill by Brenna Storz. C MICH win probability 9% → 10%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ILL ST 93.5%6.5% C MICH

Illinois St. wins

3-0

51.6%

3-1

30.6%

3-2

11.3%

Central Mich. wins

3-0

0.8%

3-1

1.9%

3-2

3.8%

ILL ST break %: 48.5% vs this opp
C MICH break %: 36.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Brenna StorzKill+1.3%
Kill by Brenna Storz
Set 1 · ILL ST 5-8 C MICH · C MICH 9% → 10%
02
Jillian GregoryAttack error+1.2%
Jillian Gregory stuffed by Karla Sanchez George & Brenna Storz
Set 1 · ILL ST 5-7 C MICH · C MICH 8% → 9%
03
ILL ST serverAce+1.1%
Illinois St. ace on Rainey Weidman
Set 1 · ILL ST 7-8 C MICH · ILL ST 90% → 92%
04
Abby ReckKill+1.1%
Kill by Abby Reck
Set 1 · ILL ST 8-8 C MICH · ILL ST 92% → 93%
05
Addisyn PohlAttack error+1.0%
Attack error by Addisyn Pohl
Set 1 · ILL ST 4-5 C MICH · C MICH 7% → 8%
06
Abby ReckKill+1.0%
Kill by Abby Reck (set by Audrey Hackney)
Set 1 · ILL ST 9-8 C MICH · ILL ST 93% → 94%
07
Jillian GregoryKill+0.8%
Kill by Jillian Gregory (set by Ella Craggs)
Set 1 · ILL ST 10-8 C MICH · ILL ST 94% → 94%
08
Addisyn PohlKill+0.8%
Kill by Addisyn Pohl (set by Audrey Clark)
Set 1 · ILL ST 6-8 C MICH · ILL ST 90% → 90%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Illinois St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Abby ReckOH	3	7	2	14	.357	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
1Ruth ZieglerOPP	3	4	0	7	.571	1	2	2	1	0	0	2	1	7
9Ella CraggsS	3	0	0	0	–	18	2	0	8	0	0	0	0	2
6Logan GrevengoedMB	2	7	0	17	.412	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
14Jillian FerrillOH	2	4	5	13	-.077	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	4
11Jillian GregoryOH	1	2	3	15	-.067	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
15Addisyn PohlMB	3	8	2	12	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
2Emilija ArsicOH	3	7	0	11	.636	0	1	3	9	0	0	0	0	8
21Audrey ClarkS	3	0	0	1	.000	12	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
17Peyton TurnerDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
5Samantha BunchS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
10Oliwia CaputaOH	2	4	1	10	.300	0	0	0	6	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
18Ayla KlingenbergMB	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
13Alaina KraemerOPP	1	2	1	3	.333	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
3Ella KohnenS	1	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	14	106	.311	40	6	8	47	5	2	8	6	75

Central Mich.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Taylor CripeOH	3	7	3	30	.133	2	1	0	16	0	0	0	0	8
6Brenna StorzMB	3	5	4	17	.059	0	1	1	3	0	0	2	1	7
13Lilly MullholandOPP	3	3	1	6	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
9Alexis CarperOH	3	2	4	13	-.154	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
14Brytn LyonS	3	0	0	2	.000	14	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
22Meisha SykesMB	2	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
15Karla Sanchez GeorgeOPP	3	8	4	16	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
2Audrey HackneyS	3	1	1	3	.000	6	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
10Ceci BustamanteL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
1Addison SamolinskiL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	2	0	3	1	0	0	0	2
4Rainey WeidmanL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	9	2	0	0	0	0
8Cheyenne GunnerOH	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Jaliyah CohnesOH	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		27	20	97	.072	23	5	2	41	6	1	6	4	54

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 ILL ST · C MICH 4

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 8 ILL STC MICH 3

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 8 ILL STC MICH 4

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 6 ILL STC MICH 3

Bars above the line = Central Mich. leads, below = Illinois St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Illinois St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	55%6/11
2	50%6/12	65%11/17
3	67%6/9	54%7/13
4	83%5/6	62%8/13
5	45%5/11	29%2/7
6	50%4/8	67%8/12
All	59%33/56	58%42/73

Central Mich.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	55%6/11	14%1/7
2	32%6/19	45%5/11
3	43%6/14	50%6/12
4	63%5/8	14%1/7
5	33%4/12	50%5/10
6	44%4/9	56%5/9
All	42%31/73	41%23/56

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

129 rallies

Rally log

#	ILL ST-C MICH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	C MICH	ILL ST	Attack err	Meisha Sykes		+0.5
2	1-1	ILL ST	C MICH	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.6
3	2-1	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+0.5
4	3-1	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Lilly Mullholand		+0.6
5	3-2	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.5
6	3-3	C MICH	C MICH	Attack err	Jillian Gregory		+0.8
7	4-3	C MICH	ILL ST	Attack err	Brenna Storz	blk Addisyn Pohl	+0.6
8	4-4	ILL ST	C MICH	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.6
9	4-5	C MICH	C MICH	Attack err	Addisyn Pohl		+1.0
10	5-5	C MICH	ILL ST	Attack err	Audrey Hackney		+0.7
11	5-6	ILL ST	C MICH×3	Kill	Brenna Storz	set Audrey Hackney	+0.8
12	5-7	C MICH	C MICH×3	Attack err	Jillian Gregory	blk Karla Sanchez George, Brenna Storz	+1.2
13	5-8	C MICH	C MICH×3	Kill	Brenna Storz		+1.3
14	6-8	C MICH	ILL ST×8	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Audrey Clark	+0.8
15	7-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Rainey Weidman	+1.1
16	8-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Kill	Abby Reck		+1.1
17	9-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Kill	Abby Reck	set Audrey Hackney	+1.0
18	10-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+0.8
19	11-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.7
20	12-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+0.6
21	13-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Attack err	Taylor Cripe		+0.4
22	13-9	ILL ST	C MICH×3	Kill	Karla Sanchez George	set Taylor Cripe	+0.3
23	13-10	C MICH	C MICH×3	Attack err	Jillian Gregory		+0.5
24	13-11	C MICH	C MICH×3	Kill	Karla Sanchez George	set Audrey Hackney	+0.7
25	14-11	C MICH	ILL ST×3	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+0.6
26	15-11	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.6
27	16-11	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Abby Reck		+0.4
28	16-12	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Karla Sanchez George	set Audrey Hackney	+0.3
29	17-12	C MICH	ILL ST×3	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.3
30	18-12	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Ella Craggs	+0.3
31	19-12	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Jaliyah Cohnes		+0.2
32	19-13	ILL ST	C MICH	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill	blk Meisha Sykes	+0.1
33	19-14	C MICH	C MICH	Attack err	Abby Reck	blk Alexis Carper, Meisha Sykes	+0.2
34	20-14	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
35	20-15	ILL ST	C MICH×3	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.1
36	20-16	C MICH	C MICH×3	Kill	Lilly Mullholand		+0.3
37	20-17	C MICH	C MICH×3	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill	blk Brenna Storz, Lilly Mullholand	+0.5
38	21-17	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Audrey Clark	+0.5
39	22-17	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Alexis Carper		+0.4
40	22-18	ILL ST	C MICH	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.2
41	23-18	C MICH	ILL ST	Attack err	Karla Sanchez George		+0.2
42	24-18	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Audrey Clark	+0.1
43	24-19	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Alexis Carper	set Audrey Hackney	+0.0
44	24-20	C MICH	C MICH	Kill	Karla Sanchez George	set Audrey Hackney	+0.1
45	25-20	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Audrey Clark	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	ILL ST	ILL ST	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Alexis Carper	+0.5
2	2-0	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Taylor Cripe	blk Ruth Ziegler, Abby Reck	+0.4
3	2-1	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.3
4	3-1	C MICH	ILL ST×8	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.3
5	4-1	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Attack err	Taylor Cripe		+0.4
6	5-1	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+0.3
7	6-1	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
8	7-1	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Kill	Jillian Ferrill		+0.2
9	8-1	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Rainey Weidman	+0.1
10	9-1	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Ruth Ziegler	+0.1
11	10-1	ILL ST	ILL ST×8	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Ella Craggs	+0.1
12	10-2	ILL ST	C MICH	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill		+0.0
13	11-2	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Ella Craggs	+0.0
14	12-2	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Brenna Storz		+0.0
15	12-3	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Brenna Storz	set Brytn Lyon	+0.0
16	13-3	C MICH	ILL ST×3	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
17	14-3	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Karla Sanchez George	blk Addisyn Pohl, Logan Grevengoed	+0.0
18	15-3	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Brenna Storz		+0.0
19	15-4	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Brenna Storz	set Audrey Hackney	+0.0
20	16-4	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
21	17-4	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Karla Sanchez George		+0.0
22	17-5	ILL ST	C MICH	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
23	17-6	C MICH	C MICH	Ace	C MICH server	aced Team	+0.0
24	18-6	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Alaina Kraemer	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
25	19-6	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Samantha Bunch	+0.0
26	19-7	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Audrey Hackney	set Taylor Cripe	+0.0
27	20-7	C MICH	ILL ST	Serve err	C MICH server		+0.0
28	20-8	ILL ST	C MICH×3	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
29	20-9	C MICH	C MICH×3	Attack err	Alaina Kraemer		+0.0
30	20-10	C MICH	C MICH×3	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill		+0.0
31	21-10	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Alaina Kraemer	set Ella Craggs	+0.0
32	22-10	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Brytn Lyon	+0.0
33	22-11	ILL ST	C MICH×4	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
34	22-12	C MICH	C MICH×4	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill		+0.0
35	22-13	C MICH	C MICH×4	Ace	C MICH server	aced Jillian Ferrill	+0.0
36	22-14	C MICH	C MICH×4	Ace	C MICH server	aced Jillian Ferrill	+0.0
37	23-14	C MICH	ILL ST	Attack err	Alexis Carper		+0.0
38	24-14	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
39	24-15	ILL ST	C MICH	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
40	25-15	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Abby Reck	set Peyton Turner	+0.2
2	1-1	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Karla Sanchez George	set Brytn Lyon	+0.2
3	2-1	C MICH	ILL ST×4	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
4	3-1	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Kill	Emilija Arsic		+0.2
5	4-1	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Audrey Clark	+0.2
6	5-1	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Addison Samolinski	+0.1
7	5-2	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Alexis Carper	set Brytn Lyon	+0.1
8	6-2	C MICH	ILL ST×6	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Audrey Clark	+0.1
9	7-2	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Attack err	Karla Sanchez George	blk Oliwia Caputa, Ayla Klingenberg	+0.1
10	8-2	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Attack err	Alexis Carper	blk Ruth Ziegler, Audrey Clark	+0.1
11	9-2	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Attack err	Brenna Storz	blk Ayla Klingenberg	+0.1
12	10-2	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Kill	Ayla Klingenberg	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
13	11-2	ILL ST	ILL ST×6	Attack err	Alexis Carper		+0.0
14	11-3	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Brenna Storz	set Brytn Lyon	+0.0
15	12-3	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Kohnen	+0.0
16	12-4	ILL ST	C MICH×3	Kill	Cheyenne Gunner	set Brytn Lyon	+0.0
17	12-5	C MICH	C MICH×3	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.0
18	12-6	C MICH	C MICH×3	Ace	C MICH server	aced Oliwia Caputa	+0.0
19	13-6	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Ella Kohnen	+0.0
20	13-7	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.0
21	13-8	C MICH	C MICH	Attack err	Abby Reck		+0.1
22	14-8	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Peyton Turner	+0.1
23	14-9	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Lilly Mullholand	set Brytn Lyon	+0.1
24	14-10	C MICH	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Addison Samolinski	+0.1
25	15-10	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Addisyn Pohl	set Ella Craggs	+0.1
26	15-11	ILL ST	C MICH×3	Attack err	Addisyn Pohl		+0.1
27	15-12	C MICH	C MICH×3	Kill	Karla Sanchez George	set Brytn Lyon	+0.2
28	15-13	C MICH	C MICH×3	Ace	C MICH server	aced Oliwia Caputa	+0.2
29	16-13	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
30	17-13	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Cheyenne Gunner		+0.2
31	17-14	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Karla Sanchez George	set Brytn Lyon	+0.1
32	18-14	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Ella Kohnen	+0.1
33	18-15	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Karla Sanchez George	set Brytn Lyon	+0.1
34	19-15	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Oliwia Caputa	set Ella Kohnen	+0.2
35	19-16	ILL ST	C MICH	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.1
36	20-16	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Ayla Klingenberg	set Ella Kohnen	+0.2
37	20-17	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Taylor Cripe	set Brytn Lyon	+0.1
38	20-18	C MICH	C MICH	Attack err	Oliwia Caputa		+0.3
39	21-18	C MICH	ILL ST×3	Serve err	C MICH server		+0.2
40	22-18	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
41	23-18	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Abby Reck	set Ella Craggs	+0.1
42	23-19	ILL ST	C MICH	Kill	Lilly Mullholand	set Brytn Lyon	+0.0
43	24-19	C MICH	ILL ST	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Peyton Turner	+0.1
44	25-19	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Addisyn Pohl		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Illinois St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.