FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

3:0

HomeSWAC

Southern Miss. def. Southern U. 3–0

(25-15, 25-17, 25-12)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
S MISS	25	25	25	3
SOUTHR	15	17	12	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SOUTHR above 50 · S MISS below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Southern U. — set 2, S MISS 10-13 SOUTHR. Kill by Paulina Agudelo Marin (set by Maleah Faust). SOUTHR win probability 2% → 3%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

S MISS 97.4%2.6% SOUTHR

Southern Miss. wins

3-0

64.2%

3-1

26.5%

3-2

6.8%

Southern U. wins

3-0

0.3%

3-1

0.7%

3-2

1.7%

S MISS break %: 52.8% vs this opp
SOUTHR break %: 37.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Paulina Agudelo MarinKill+0.6%
Kill by Paulina Agudelo Marin (set by Maleah Faust)
Set 2 · S MISS 10-13 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 2% → 3%
02
Maleah FaustKill+0.5%
Kill by Maleah Faust (set by Nyla Hoult)
Set 2 · S MISS 14-16 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 2% → 3%
03
Mariah MottAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Mariah Mott
Set 2 · S MISS 16-16 SOUTHR · S MISS 98% → 98%
04
S MISS serverService error+0.5%
Southern Miss. service error
Set 2 · S MISS 13-15 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 2% → 3%
05
Diana WellsAttack error+0.5%
Diana Wells stuffed by Braelynn Reese & Maleah Faust
Set 2 · S MISS 5-9 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 2% → 3%
06
S MISS serverService error+0.5%
Southern Miss. service error
Set 2 · S MISS 12-14 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 2% → 3%
07
Sereniti JohnsonAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Sereniti Johnson
Set 2 · S MISS 17-16 SOUTHR · S MISS 98% → 99%
08
Braelynn ReeseKill+0.4%
Kill by Braelynn Reese (set by Maleah Faust)
Set 2 · S MISS 7-11 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 3% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern Miss.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Sadie McAdaOH	3	11	3	24	.333	0	1	0	16	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
16Elly StewartMB	3	7	1	12	.500	0	1	0	5	0	1	4	3	11
2Aubrey JuddOH	3	9	0	16	.563	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
13Lillie JohnsonMB	3	5	0	8	.625	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
7Allie HazelwoodS	3	2	0	3	.667	37	1	5	4	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
5Kaylee LowtherL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	0
21Diana WellsOH	3	11	3	24	.333	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	13
11Lindsey SmithL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	1
3Sunni SheppardL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	7	89	.427	42	4	9	41	3	3	10	8	75

Southern U.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Paulina Agudelo MarinMB	3	7	4	13	.231	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
11Sereniti JohnsonOH	3	5	6	23	-.043	0	2	0	7	1	0	0	0	7
4Braelynn ReeseOH	3	5	5	19	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
14Alayah WilsonOH	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
10Penina VitoS	2	0	0	2	.000	15	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
13Elizabeth LualemagaOH	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Mariah MottOH	3	3	4	14	-.071	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	4
2Reagan RobinsonL/DS	3	1	0	5	.200	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	1
19Najah HarrisDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	11	2	0	0	0	0
9Maleah FaustS	2	2	0	2	1.000	5	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
12Nyla HoultOH	2	0	1	3	-.333	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
7Ayana JohnsonDS	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
21Alyssa WilliamsOH	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
20Logan HartMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		25	22	94	.032	22	3	4	35	4	1	4	3	44

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 11 S MISS · SOUTHR 4

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 11 S MISSSOUTHR 3

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 7 S MISSSOUTHR 4

Set 3

25-12

Longest run 5 S MISSSOUTHR 3

Bars above the line = Southern U. leads, below = Southern Miss. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southern Miss.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%6/8	50%5/10
2	55%6/11	71%15/21
3	86%6/7	45%5/11
4	50%6/12	33%3/9
5	100%4/4	56%5/9
6	100%3/3	79%11/14
All	69%31/45	59%44/74

Southern U.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	33%2/6
2	29%6/21	33%3/9
3	55%6/11	25%2/8
4	55%6/11	33%3/9
5	27%3/11	40%4/10
6	30%3/10	0%0/3
All	41%30/74	31%14/45

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

119 rallies

Rally log

#	S MISS-SOUTHR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Braelynn Reese	set Penina Vito	+0.3
2	1-1	SOUTHR	S MISS×11	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
3	2-1	S MISS	S MISS×11	Attack err	Alayah Wilson	blk Diana Wells	+0.3
4	3-1	S MISS	S MISS×11	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Diana Wells	+0.3
5	4-1	S MISS	S MISS×11	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
6	5-1	S MISS	S MISS×11	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
7	6-1	S MISS	S MISS×11	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
8	7-1	S MISS	S MISS×11	Ace	S MISS server	aced Najah Harris	+0.1
9	8-1	S MISS	S MISS×11	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
10	9-1	S MISS	S MISS×11	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
11	10-1	S MISS	S MISS×11	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
12	11-1	S MISS	S MISS×11	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
13	11-2	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Braelynn Reese	set Penina Vito	+0.0
14	11-3	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.0
15	12-3	SOUTHR	S MISS	Attack err	Alyssa Williams		+0.0
16	12-4	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Penina Vito	+0.0
17	13-4	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
18	13-5	S MISS	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Penina Vito	+0.0
19	13-6	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Lindsey Smith	+0.0
20	13-7	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Penina Vito	+0.1
21	14-7	SOUTHR	S MISS	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.1
22	14-8	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.1
23	15-8	SOUTHR	S MISS×4	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.1
24	16-8	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.0
25	17-8	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Allie Hazelwood	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
26	18-8	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
27	18-9	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
28	19-9	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
29	19-10	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.0
30	20-10	SOUTHR	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
31	21-10	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Mariah Mott	blk Lillie Johnson, Aubrey Judd	+0.0
32	22-10	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Braelynn Reese	blk Lillie Johnson	+0.0
33	22-11	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Alyssa Williams	set Penina Vito	+0.0
34	22-12	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
35	23-12	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
36	23-13	S MISS	SOUTHR	Attack err	Elly Stewart		+0.0
37	23-14	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.0
38	24-14	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
39	24-15	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
40	25-15	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin		+0.2
2	1-1	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
3	1-2	S MISS	SOUTHR×4	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Maleah Faust	+0.2
4	1-3	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×4	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Maleah Faust	+0.3
5	1-4	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×4	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Kaylee Lowther	+0.4
6	1-5	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×4	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Team	+0.4
7	2-5	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
8	3-5	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Paulina Agudelo Marin		+0.3
9	3-6	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.3
10	4-6	SOUTHR	S MISS	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.3
11	5-6	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Sunni Sheppard	+0.3
12	5-7	S MISS	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Maleah Faust	+0.3
13	5-8	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Braelynn Reese	set Maleah Faust	+0.4
14	5-9	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Braelynn Reese, Maleah Faust	+0.5
15	6-9	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
16	6-10	S MISS	SOUTHR	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.4
17	7-10	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
18	7-11	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Braelynn Reese	set Maleah Faust	+0.4
19	8-11	SOUTHR	S MISS×3	Attack err	Paulina Agudelo Marin	blk Elly Stewart	+0.3
20	9-11	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Allie Hazelwood	set Kaylee Lowther	+0.4
21	10-11	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Paulina Agudelo Marin	blk Elly Stewart, Sadie McAda	+0.4
22	10-12	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.4
23	10-13	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Maleah Faust	+0.6
24	11-13	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.4
25	12-13	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.4
26	12-14	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.5
27	13-14	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.4
28	13-15	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.5
29	14-15	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.4
30	14-16	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Maleah Faust	set Nyla Hoult	+0.5
31	15-16	SOUTHR	S MISS×4	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.4
32	16-16	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.5
33	17-16	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.5
34	18-16	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Braelynn Reese	blk Elly Stewart, Diana Wells	+0.4
35	18-17	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Maleah Faust	set Najah Harris	+0.3
36	19-17	SOUTHR	S MISS×7	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
37	20-17	S MISS	S MISS×7	Attack err	Braelynn Reese	blk Elly Stewart, Diana Wells	+0.3
38	21-17	S MISS	S MISS×7	Kill	Diana Wells	set Maleah Faust	+0.2
39	22-17	S MISS	S MISS×7	Ace	S MISS server	aced Reagan Robinson	+0.1
40	23-17	S MISS	S MISS×7	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.1
41	24-17	S MISS	S MISS×7	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
42	25-17	S MISS	S MISS×7	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Najah Harris	+0.1
2	2-0	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.1
3	2-1	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.1
4	3-1	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
5	4-1	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.1
6	4-2	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Penina Vito	+0.1
7	5-2	SOUTHR	S MISS×5	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
8	6-2	S MISS	S MISS×5	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Sunni Sheppard	+0.0
9	7-2	S MISS	S MISS×5	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
10	8-2	S MISS	S MISS×5	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
11	9-2	S MISS	S MISS×5	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
12	9-3	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Alayah Wilson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
13	10-3	SOUTHR	S MISS	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.0
14	11-3	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Sunni Sheppard	+0.0
15	11-4	S MISS	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Reagan Robinson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
16	11-5	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk Braelynn Reese	+0.0
17	11-6	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Braelynn Reese	set Diana Wells	+0.0
18	12-6	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
19	12-7	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.0
20	13-7	SOUTHR	S MISS×3	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
21	14-7	S MISS	S MISS×3	Ace	S MISS server	aced Sereniti Johnson	+0.0
22	15-7	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
23	15-8	S MISS	SOUTHR	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk Penina Vito, Paulina Agudelo Marin	+0.0
24	16-8	SOUTHR	S MISS	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.0
25	17-8	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
26	17-9	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.0
27	18-9	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Paulina Agudelo Marin	+0.0
28	19-9	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Paulina Agudelo Marin		+0.0
29	19-10	S MISS	SOUTHR	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+0.0
30	20-10	SOUTHR	S MISS	Attack err	Braelynn Reese		+0.0
31	20-11	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.0
32	21-11	SOUTHR	S MISS	Attack err	Braelynn Reese		+0.0
33	22-11	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Nyla Hoult		+0.0
34	22-12	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.0
35	23-12	SOUTHR	S MISS×3	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
36	24-12	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
37	25-12	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson	blk Allie Hazelwood, Elly Stewart	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Southern Miss. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.