FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwaySWAC

0:3

HomeSUN-BELT

Southern Miss. def. Southern U. 3–0

(25-23, 25-23, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SOUTHR	23	23	16	0
S MISS	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

S MISS above 50 · SOUTHR below

Biggest swing: 1.1% to Southern Miss. — set 1, SOUTHR 23-24 S MISS. Kill by Sadie McAda (set by Allie Hazelwood). S MISS win probability 98% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SOUTHR 0.9%99.1% S MISS

Southern U. wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.6%

Southern Miss. wins

3-0

74.7%

3-1

20.8%

3-2

3.6%

SOUTHR break %: 36.3% vs this opp
S MISS break %: 54.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sadie McAdaKill+1.1%
Kill by Sadie McAda (set by Allie Hazelwood)
Set 1 · SOUTHR 23-24 S MISS · S MISS 98% → 99%
02
Penina VitoBad set+1.1%
Bad set by Penina Vito
Set 1 · SOUTHR 23-23 S MISS · S MISS 97% → 98%
03
Paulina Agudelo MarinKill+1.1%
Kill by Paulina Agudelo Marin (set by Penina Vito)
Set 1 · SOUTHR 23-20 S MISS · SOUTHR 4% → 5%
04
Norielle BattleKill+0.9%
Kill by Norielle Battle (set by Penina Vito)
Set 1 · SOUTHR 22-20 S MISS · SOUTHR 3% → 4%
05
Penina VitoBad set+0.9%
Bad set by Penina Vito
Set 1 · SOUTHR 23-22 S MISS · S MISS 96% → 97%
06
Elly StewartAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Elly Stewart
Set 1 · SOUTHR 20-17 S MISS · SOUTHR 3% → 4%
07
Maleah FaustKill+0.8%
Kill by Maleah Faust (set by Allie Hazelwood)
Set 1 · SOUTHR 21-19 S MISS · SOUTHR 3% → 3%
08
S MISS serverAce+0.7%
Southern Miss. ace on Team
Set 1 · SOUTHR 23-25 S MISS · S MISS 99% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern U.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
5Mariah MottOH	3	6	6	24	.000	1	0	0	1	0	5	2.5	8.5
4Braelynn ReeseOH	3	4	2	11	.182	1	0	0	0	1	3	1.5	5.5
18Paulina Agudelo MarinMB	3	3	1	8	.250	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	5
11Sereniti JohnsonOH	3	2	5	19	-.158	2	1	0	17	2	1	0.5	3.5
9Maleah FaustS	3	3	0	4	.750	10	0	1	4	0	0	0	3
2Reagan RobinsonL/DS	3	0	3	11	-.273	0	2	3	11	1	0	0	2
19Najah HarrisDS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	2	0	21	1	0	0	2
10Penina VitoS	3	1	0	1	1.000	9	0	0	3	0	0	0	1
15Norielle BattleOH	2	4	3	17	.059	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
13Elizabeth LualemagaOH	2	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
14Alayah WilsonOH	2	0	1	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
7Ayana JohnsonDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
12Nyla HoultOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		25	21	105	.038	23	5	5	59	6	14	7	62

Southern Miss.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
16Elly StewartMB	3	8	2	22	.273	0	1	1	2	0	4	2	11
6Sadie McAdaOH	3	7	5	27	.074	0	1	3	7	4	0	0	8
13Lillie JohnsonMB	3	6	0	14	.429	1	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
7Allie HazelwoodS	3	2	0	7	.286	31	1	2	7	0	4	2	5
5Kaylee LowtherL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	6	0	0	0	2
2Aubrey JuddOH	2	5	4	19	.053	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
21Diana WellsOH	3	6	9	30	-.100	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	7
11Lindsey SmithL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	8	0	0	0	1
3Sunni SheppardL/DS	3	0	1	4	-.250	2	0	3	13	1	0	0	0
9Emily DavisOH	1	4	0	6	.667	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
10Tarah YunesOH	1	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team totals		40	22	135	.133	34	6	10	46	5	14	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 SOUTHR · S MISS 7

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 5 SOUTHRS MISS 5

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 7 SOUTHRS MISS 7

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 2 SOUTHRS MISS 5

Bars above the line = Southern Miss. leads, below = Southern U. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southern U.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	43%6/14	29%2/7
2	40%6/15	67%12/18
3	46%6/13	60%9/15
4	75%6/8	14%1/7
5	33%4/12	54%7/13
6	27%3/11	0%0/4
All	42%31/73	48%31/64

Southern Miss.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	46%6/13	56%5/9
2	43%6/14	50%6/12
3	46%6/13	63%10/16
4	60%6/10	50%6/12
5	60%6/10	25%2/8
6	75%3/4	81%13/16
All	52%33/64	58%42/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	SOUTHR-S MISS	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SOUTHR	S MISS×3	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.1
2	0-2	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
3	0-3	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
4	1-3	S MISS	SOUTHR×5	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Maleah Faust	+0.1
5	2-3	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×5	Attack err	Aubrey Judd	blk Braelynn Reese, Sereniti Johnson	+0.1
6	3-3	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×5	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Braelynn Reese, Mariah Mott	+0.2
7	4-3	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×5	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Maleah Faust	+0.2
8	5-3	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×5	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Sadie McAda	+0.3
9	5-4	SOUTHR	S MISS×4	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.2
10	5-5	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Braelynn Reese		+0.2
11	5-6	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
12	5-7	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.1
13	6-7	S MISS	SOUTHR×5	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.1
14	7-7	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×5	Attack err	Elly Stewart		+0.2
15	8-7	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×5	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Sereniti Johnson	+0.3
16	9-7	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×5	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Mariah Mott, Paulina Agudelo Marin	+0.3
17	10-7	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×5	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Mariah Mott, Paulina Agudelo Marin	+0.4
18	10-8	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
19	11-8	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Maleah Faust	+0.4
20	11-9	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
21	12-9	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.4
22	13-9	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Sadie McAda	+0.5
23	13-10	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Allie Hazelwood	set Reagan Robinson	+0.3
24	14-10	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Elizabeth Lualemaga	set Penina Vito	+0.5
25	14-11	SOUTHR	S MISS×3	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.3
26	14-12	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Braelynn Reese		+0.4
27	14-13	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.4
28	15-13	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Norielle Battle	set Penina Vito	+0.4
29	15-14	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
30	15-15	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.4
31	16-15	S MISS	SOUTHR	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Braelynn Reese, Mariah Mott	+0.4
32	17-15	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Aubrey Judd		+0.6
33	17-16	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.4
34	17-17	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Sunni Sheppard	+0.5
35	18-17	S MISS	SOUTHR×3	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.5
36	19-17	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Sadie McAda	+0.7
37	20-17	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Attack err	Elly Stewart		+0.8
38	20-18	SOUTHR	S MISS	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.5
39	20-19	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.6
40	21-19	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Maleah Faust	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.8
41	21-20	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.6
42	22-20	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Norielle Battle	set Penina Vito	+0.9
43	23-20	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Penina Vito	+1.1
44	23-21	SOUTHR	S MISS×5	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.5
45	23-22	S MISS	S MISS×5	Bad set	Penina Vito		+0.9
46	23-23	S MISS	S MISS×5	Bad set	Penina Vito		+1.1
47	23-24	S MISS	S MISS×5	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.1
48	23-25	S MISS	S MISS×5	Ace	S MISS server	aced Team	+0.7
Set 2
1	0-1	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Braelynn Reese	+0.1
2	1-1	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Braelynn Reese	set Maleah Faust	+0.1
3	1-2	SOUTHR	S MISS	Bad set	Maleah Faust		+0.1
4	2-2	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.1
5	2-3	SOUTHR	S MISS	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson	blk Lillie Johnson, Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
6	2-4	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Sereniti Johnson	+0.1
7	3-4	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Maleah Faust	+0.1
8	3-5	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
9	3-6	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Norielle Battle		+0.1
10	4-6	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.1
11	4-7	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
12	5-7	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Norielle Battle	set Penina Vito	+0.1
13	5-8	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
14	6-8	S MISS	SOUTHR	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.1
15	7-8	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.1
16	7-9	SOUTHR	S MISS×3	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
17	7-10	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
18	7-11	S MISS	S MISS×3	Ace	S MISS server	aced Najah Harris	+0.1
19	8-11	S MISS	SOUTHR×7	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Maleah Faust	+0.0
20	9-11	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×7	Kill	Braelynn Reese	set Maleah Faust	+0.1
21	10-11	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×7	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Sunni Sheppard	+0.1
22	11-11	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×7	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Maleah Faust	+0.2
23	12-11	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×7	Attack err	Sunni Sheppard		+0.2
24	13-11	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×7	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+0.2
25	14-11	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×7	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+0.3
26	14-12	SOUTHR	S MISS	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.2
27	14-13	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
28	15-13	S MISS	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Braelynn Reese	set Maleah Faust	+0.2
29	16-13	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Sadie McAda	+0.3
30	17-13	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk Mariah Mott, Paulina Agudelo Marin	+0.4
31	17-14	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
32	17-15	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.3
33	18-15	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.3
34	18-16	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
35	19-16	S MISS	SOUTHR×4	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.4
36	20-16	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×4	Attack err	Aubrey Judd		+0.5
37	21-16	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×4	Kill	Norielle Battle	set Penina Vito	+0.4
38	22-16	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×4	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.3
39	22-17	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
40	22-18	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Paulina Agudelo Marin		+0.2
41	23-18	S MISS	SOUTHR	Attack err	Aubrey Judd		+0.3
42	23-19	SOUTHR	S MISS×7	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
43	23-20	S MISS	S MISS×7	Kill	Allie Hazelwood		+0.2
44	23-21	S MISS	S MISS×7	Kill	Diana Wells		+0.4
45	23-22	S MISS	S MISS×7	Attack err	Norielle Battle	blk Diana Wells, Elly Stewart	+0.5
46	23-23	S MISS	S MISS×7	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.6
47	23-24	S MISS	S MISS×7	Attack err	Norielle Battle	blk Diana Wells, Elly Stewart	+0.7
48	23-25	S MISS	S MISS×7	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.4
Set 3
1	0-1	SOUTHR	S MISS	Attack err	Reagan Robinson	blk Allie Hazelwood, Elly Stewart	+0.0
2	1-1	S MISS	SOUTHR	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+0.0
3	1-2	SOUTHR	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Lillie Johnson	+0.0
4	1-3	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.0
5	1-4	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Sunni Sheppard	+0.0
6	2-4	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Braelynn Reese	+0.0
7	2-5	SOUTHR	S MISS×5	Kill	Emily Davis	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
8	2-6	S MISS	S MISS×5	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.0
9	2-7	S MISS	S MISS×5	Ace	S MISS server	aced Reagan Robinson	+0.0
10	2-8	S MISS	S MISS×5	Attack err	Reagan Robinson		+0.0
11	2-9	S MISS	S MISS×5	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson	blk Lillie Johnson, Emily Davis	+0.0
12	3-9	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.0
13	3-10	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
14	3-11	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Emily Davis	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
15	4-11	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.0
16	5-11	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.0
17	5-12	SOUTHR	S MISS×4	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
18	5-13	S MISS	S MISS×4	Ace	S MISS server	aced Sereniti Johnson	+0.0
19	5-14	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Alayah Wilson		+0.0
20	5-15	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Reagan Robinson	blk Allie Hazelwood, Elly Stewart	+0.0
21	6-15	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Nyla Hoult	set Maleah Faust	+0.0
22	6-16	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
23	7-16	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Maleah Faust	set Sereniti Johnson	+0.0
24	8-16	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+0.0
25	8-17	SOUTHR	S MISS×3	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
26	8-18	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Mariah Mott	blk Lillie Johnson, Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
27	8-19	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.0
28	9-19	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Braelynn Reese	set Penina Vito	+0.0
29	10-19	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.0
30	10-20	SOUTHR	S MISS×3	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.0
31	10-21	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Emily Davis	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
32	10-22	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
33	11-22	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.0
34	12-22	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.0
35	12-23	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Emily Davis	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
36	13-23	S MISS	SOUTHR	Kill	Penina Vito	set Mariah Mott	+0.0
37	14-23	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Tarah Yunes	blk Paulina Agudelo Marin, Alayah Wilson	+0.0
38	14-24	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Tarah Yunes	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
39	15-24	S MISS	SOUTHR	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.0
40	16-24	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Maleah Faust	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
41	16-25	SOUTHR	S MISS	Kill	Tarah Yunes	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Southern U. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.