Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 11, 2026

Middle Tenn. def. Northern Colo. 3–1

Middle Tenn. beat visiting Northern Colo. 3-1 (26-24, 10-25, 25-20, 25-22) on Fri, Sep 11, 2026. Sophia Henry and Gabrielle Clinkscale led Middle Tenn. with 10 kills each; Northern Colo.'s Gillian Walton had a match-high 15.

Data through · final Sep 11

Set1234Sets
N COLO242520221
MIDTEN261025253

Win probability

Middle Tenn. above 50 · Northern Colo. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.7% MIDTENrally 177 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.7% to Middle Tenn. — set 4, N COLO 22-23 MIDTEN. Kill by Sophia Henry (set by Michaela Dlouhá). MIDTEN win probability 76% → 85%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

N COLO 45.6%54.4% MIDTEN

Northern Colo. wins

3-0
10.7%
3-1
16.9%
3-2
17.9%

Middle Tenn. wins

3-0
14.4%
3-1
20.6%
3-2
19.4%
N COLO break %
44.4% vs this opp
MIDTEN break %
45.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sophia HenryKill+9.7%

    Kill by Sophia Henry (set by Michaela Dlouhá)

    Set 4 · N COLO 22-23 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 76% → 85%

  2. 02

    Kill by Michaela Dlouhá (set by Caroline Macander)

    Set 1 · N COLO 24-26 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 63% → 72%

  3. 03

    Summer Snead stuffed by Caroline Macander

    Set 4 · N COLO 22-24 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 85% → 95%

  4. 04
    Northern Colo.Service error+7.9%

    Northern Colo. service error

    Set 1 · N COLO 23-24 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 55% → 63%

  5. 05
    Kendall MignereyAttack error+7.9%

    Attack error by Kendall Mignerey

    Set 1 · N COLO 24-24 MIDTEN · N COLO 37% → 45%

  6. 06
    Gillian WaltonAttack error+7.9%

    Attack error by Gillian Walton

    Set 1 · N COLO 24-25 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 55% → 63%

  7. 07

    Kill by Gillian Walton (set by Nerea Alvarez-Jorge)

    Set 4 · N COLO 22-21 MIDTEN · N COLO 24% → 31%

  8. 08
    Northern Colo.Service error+6.6%

    Northern Colo. service error

    Set 4 · N COLO 22-22 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 69% → 76%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415829.24110010052.517.5
414436.2781239102117
48114.5000522012215
48422.18200020073.511.5
44116.188201126010.54.5
43011.273440370010.53.5
4000–022600002
4000–2031410000
3000–003100000
Team totals5218128.266509175481181091
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410536.13913044010.513.5
410427.22200060010.510.5
46316.188102100428
4609.66700010111.57.5
4003.000251180111.52.5
2115.00000000010.51.5
47117.35300021010.57.5
4125-.200023500003
4000–2111800001
3000–113510001
2000–603200000
11011.000000000001
1001.000000020000
Team totals4216120.21736813529210786

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 N COLO · MIDTEN 5

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 3 N COLOMIDTEN 2

Set 2

25-10

Longest run 6 N COLOMIDTEN 2

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 N COLOMIDTEN 4

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 4 N COLOMIDTEN 5

Bars above the line = Middle Tenn. leads, below = Northern Colo. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northern Colo.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
61%11/18
44%8/18
2
53%9/17
50%10/20
3
57%8/14
31%4/13
4
73%8/11
33%4/12
5
62%8/13
33%4/12
6
67%8/12
53%9/17
All
61%52/85
42%39/92

Middle Tenn.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
53%10/19
2
56%10/18
27%4/15
3
80%8/10
38%5/13
4
53%8/15
47%7/15
5
89%8/9
38%5/13
6
40%8/20
20%2/10
All
58%53/92
39%33/85

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

177 rallies

#N COLO-MIDTENSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MIDTENMIDTENBlockedGillian Waltonblk Michaela Dlouhá, Danielle Lee+2.3
21-1MIDTENN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.9
31-2N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+1.9
41-3MIDTENMIDTENAceMiddle Tenn.aced Leila Ballard+2.4
52-3MIDTENN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.9
63-3N COLON COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.5
73-4N COLOMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Sophia Henry+2.0
84-4MIDTENN COLOServe errMiddle Tenn.+2.0
94-5N COLOMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+2.1
105-5MIDTENN COLOServe errMiddle Tenn.+2.1
115-6N COLOMIDTENKillLogan Carrset Danit Cohen+2.1
126-6MIDTENN COLOBlockedJaslyn Reedblk Alayna Tessena, Maddie Rink+2.1
136-7N COLOMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Danit Cohen+2.2
147-7MIDTENN COLOKillNerea Alvarez-Jorgeset Leila Ballard+2.2
158-7N COLON COLOBlockedGabrielle Clinkscaleblk Gillian Walton, Summer Snead+2.8
168-8N COLOMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Danit Cohen+2.3
179-8MIDTENN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.4
1810-8N COLON COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.9
1910-9N COLOMIDTENKillDanielle Leeset Caroline Macander+2.3
2011-9MIDTENN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.5
2111-10N COLOMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+2.3
2212-10MIDTENN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.5
2312-11N COLOMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+2.4
2412-12MIDTENMIDTENKillKendall Mignereyset Danit Cohen+3.2
2513-12MIDTENN COLOServe errMiddle Tenn.+2.7
2613-13N COLOMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Danit Cohen+2.7
2713-14MIDTENMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Marianne Garcia+3.4
2814-14MIDTENN COLOKillNerea Alvarez-Jorgeset Alayna Tessena+2.8
2914-15N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+2.9
3014-16MIDTENMIDTENBlockedSummer Sneadblk Gabrielle Clinkscale, Michaela Dlouhá+3.5
3115-16MIDTENN COLO×3Attack errSophia Henry+2.7
3216-16N COLON COLO×3BlockedMichaela Dlouháblk Summer Snead, Alayna Tessena+3.8
3317-16N COLON COLO×3KillAlayna Tessenaset Bella LePore+4.1
3417-17N COLOMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Danit Cohen+3.3
3517-18MIDTENMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+4.3
3618-18MIDTENN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.5
3718-19N COLOMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+3.7
3818-20MIDTENMIDTENAttack errGillian Walton+4.5
3919-20MIDTENN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Gillian Walton+3.2
4020-20N COLON COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+5.0
4120-21N COLOMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+4.5
4221-21MIDTENN COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+4.5
4321-22N COLOMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+5.1
4422-22MIDTENN COLOServe errMiddle Tenn.+5.1
4522-23N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+6.1
4623-23MIDTENN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+6.0
4723-24N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+7.9
4824-24MIDTENN COLOAttack errKendall Mignerey+7.9
4924-25N COLOMIDTENAttack errGillian Walton+7.9
5024-26MIDTENMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+9.5
Set 2
10-1N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+1.8
21-1MIDTENN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.8
31-2N COLOMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Marianne Garcia+1.9
41-3MIDTENMIDTENKillLogan Carr+2.3
52-3MIDTENN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.8
62-4N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+1.9
72-5MIDTENMIDTENKillJaslyn Reed+2.2
83-5MIDTENN COLO×5Serve errMiddle Tenn.+1.7
94-5N COLON COLO×5KillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.3
105-5N COLON COLO×5KillMaddie Rink+2.5
116-5N COLON COLO×5BlockedSophia Henryblk Nerea Alvarez-Jorge, Maddie Rink+2.6
127-5N COLON COLO×5AceNorthern Colo.aced Sophia Henry+2.6
137-6N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+2.0
147-7MIDTENMIDTENKillLogan Carr+2.6
158-7MIDTENN COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.2
169-7N COLON COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.7
179-8N COLOMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Marianne Garcia+2.1
1810-8MIDTENN COLO×5KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.3
1911-8N COLON COLO×5KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.7
2012-8N COLON COLO×5Bad setMarianne Garcia+2.5
2113-8N COLON COLO×5AceNorthern Colo.aced Sophia Henry+2.2
2214-8N COLON COLO×5AceNorthern Colo.+1.8
2314-9N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+1.1
2415-9MIDTENN COLO×6KillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.5
2516-9N COLON COLO×6KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.4
2617-9N COLON COLO×6BlockedMichaela Dlouháblk Summer Snead, Gillian Walton+1.0
2718-9N COLON COLO×6BlockedGabrielle Clinkscaleblk Summer Snead, Gillian Walton+0.6
2819-9N COLON COLO×6BlockedGabrielle Clinkscaleblk Gillian Walton, Summer Snead+0.4
2920-9N COLON COLO×6KillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.2
3020-10N COLOMIDTENKillAva Smithset Caroline Macander+0.1
3121-10MIDTENN COLO×5KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.1
3222-10N COLON COLO×5BlockedMichaela Dlouháblk Leila Ballard, Summer Snead+0.1
3323-10N COLON COLO×5Attack errDanielle Lee·
3424-10N COLON COLO×5AceNorthern Colo.aced Ellie Watts·
3525-10N COLON COLO×5AceNorthern Colo.aced Ellie Watts·
Set 3
11-0MIDTENN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.6
22-0N COLON COLOAttack errGabrielle Clinkscale+3.2
32-1N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+2.5
42-2MIDTENMIDTENAttack errGillian Walton+3.2
53-2MIDTENN COLOServe errMiddle Tenn.+2.7
63-3N COLOMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+2.7
73-4MIDTENMIDTENAceMiddle Tenn.aced Bella LePore+3.4
84-4MIDTENN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.7
94-5N COLOMIDTENAttack errGillian Walton+2.8
104-6MIDTENMIDTENAceMiddle Tenn.aced Alayna Tessena+3.4
115-6MIDTENN COLO×3KillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.7
126-6N COLON COLO×3Attack errSophia Henry+3.5
137-6N COLON COLO×3AceNorthern Colo.aced Addison Burks+3.7
147-7N COLOMIDTEN×4Serve errNorthern Colo.+3.0
157-8MIDTENMIDTEN×4AceMiddle Tenn.aced Leila Ballard+3.7
167-9MIDTENMIDTEN×4KillMichaela Dlouhá+3.7
177-10MIDTENMIDTEN×4AceMiddle Tenn.aced Leila Ballard+3.5
188-10MIDTENN COLOKillLeila Ballardset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.6
198-11N COLOMIDTENBlockedAlayna Tessenablk Michaela Dlouhá, Caroline Macander+2.9
209-11MIDTENN COLOServe errMiddle Tenn.+2.7
219-12N COLOMIDTEN×4Serve errNorthern Colo.+3.0
229-13MIDTENMIDTEN×4KillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+3.3
239-14MIDTENMIDTEN×4KillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+2.8
249-15MIDTENMIDTEN×4Attack errSummer Snead+2.3
2510-15MIDTENN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.4
2611-15N COLON COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.3
2711-16N COLOMIDTENBlockedGillian Waltonblk Logan Carr, Jaslyn Reed+2.3
2811-17MIDTENMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+2.2
2912-17MIDTENN COLOServe errMiddle Tenn.+1.3
3012-18N COLOMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Caroline Macander+1.8
3113-18MIDTENN COLOServe errMiddle Tenn.+1.2
3213-19N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+1.7
3314-19MIDTENN COLOServe errMiddle Tenn.+1.1
3415-19N COLON COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.0
3515-20N COLOMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+2.3
3616-20MIDTENN COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.5
3716-21N COLOMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+2.2
3817-21MIDTENN COLOBlockedSophia Henryblk Maddie Rink+1.3
3917-22N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+2.1
4017-23MIDTENMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+1.4
4118-23MIDTENN COLOKillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.4
4219-23N COLON COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.0
4319-24N COLOMIDTENBlockedSummer Sneadblk Logan Carr+1.5
4420-24MIDTENN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+0.4
4520-25N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+0.9
Set 4
10-1N COLOMIDTENBad setSummer Snead+2.5
21-1MIDTENN COLOKillSummer Sneadset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.5
31-2N COLOMIDTENAttack errAlayna Tessena+2.5
42-2MIDTENN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.5
52-3N COLOMIDTEN×5KillSophia Henryset Addison Burks+2.6
62-4MIDTENMIDTEN×5Attack errMaddie Rink+3.1
72-5MIDTENMIDTEN×5AceMiddle Tenn.aced Leila Ballard+3.0
82-6MIDTENMIDTEN×5Attack errGillian Walton+2.8
92-7MIDTENMIDTEN×5KillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+2.5
103-7MIDTENN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.8
113-8N COLOMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+2.1
124-8MIDTENN COLOKillLeila Ballardset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+1.8
134-9N COLOMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+2.1
144-10MIDTENMIDTENAceMiddle Tenn.aced Leila Ballard+2.2
155-10MIDTENN COLO×4Serve errMiddle Tenn.+1.5
166-10N COLON COLO×4KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.2
177-10N COLON COLO×4KillNerea Alvarez-Jorgeset Leila Ballard+2.7
188-10N COLON COLO×4AceNorthern Colo.aced Sophia Henry+3.1
198-11N COLOMIDTENKillLogan Carrset Caroline Macander+2.8
208-12MIDTENMIDTENAceMiddle Tenn.aced Leila Ballard+3.1
219-12MIDTENN COLOServe errMiddle Tenn.+2.2
229-13N COLOMIDTENAttack errLeila Ballard+2.6
2310-13MIDTENN COLO×3KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+2.2
2411-13N COLON COLO×3KillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+3.3
2512-13N COLON COLO×3BlockedSophia Henryblk Gillian Walton, Summer Snead+3.8
2612-14N COLOMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Caroline Macander+3.4
2713-14MIDTENN COLO×3Serve errMiddle Tenn.+3.2
2814-14N COLON COLO×3KillLeila Ballardset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+4.4
2915-14N COLON COLO×3KillMaddie Rink+4.7
3015-15N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+3.8
3116-15MIDTENN COLOKillMaddie Rinkset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+4.0
3216-16N COLOMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+4.0
3317-16MIDTENN COLOKillLeila Ballardset Bella LePore+4.3
3417-17N COLOMIDTENKillLogan Carrset Caroline Macander+4.2
3518-17MIDTENN COLO×3KillAlayna Tessenaset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+4.6
3619-17N COLON COLO×3AceNorthern Colo.aced Sophia Henry+5.6
3720-17N COLON COLO×3AceNorthern Colo.aced Jaslyn Reed+5.1
3820-18N COLOMIDTEN×3KillLogan Carrset Caroline Macander+3.2
3920-19MIDTENMIDTEN×3Attack errAlayna Tessena+5.3
4020-20MIDTENMIDTEN×3Attack errAlayna Tessena+6.5
4121-20MIDTENN COLOAttack errKendall Mignerey+5.9
4221-21N COLOMIDTENServe errNorthern Colo.+5.8
4322-21MIDTENN COLOKillGillian Waltonset Nerea Alvarez-Jorge+6.8
4422-22N COLOMIDTEN×4Serve errNorthern Colo.+6.6
4522-23MIDTENMIDTEN×4KillSophia Henryset Michaela Dlouhá+9.7
4622-24MIDTENMIDTEN×4BlockedSummer Sneadblk Caroline Macander+9.3
4722-25MIDTENMIDTEN×4BlockedGillian Waltonblk Michaela Dlouhá, Sophia Henry+5.4

Score shown after each rally, Northern Colo. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).