FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Middle Tenn. def. Delaware 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Middle Tenn. 87.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 11:55 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Middle Tenn. beat visiting Delaware 3-0 (28-26, 25-16, 25-15) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Middle Tenn.'s Sophia Henry and Michaela Dlouhá led with 14 kills each, and Caroline Macander added 12 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set123Sets
DEL2616150
MIDTEN2825253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.600 and 14 kills for Michaela Dlouhá as Middle Tenn. rolled past Delaware.

No single rally moved win probability more than 6.5 points. Delaware peaked at 22% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Middle Tenn. went in as RallyIQ's 88% pick.

DelawareMiddle Tenn.
  • Break %+16.1 pts
    39.755.8

    On serve: 43/77 against 23/58 (Delaware sideout 44.2%).

  • Hitting+.166
    .069.235

    49 K / 22 E against 26 K / 19 E.

  • Longest run+7
    411

    Middle Tenn. scored 11 straight in the second set to turn a 12–14 deficit into a 23–14 lead. The set finished 25–16.

Middle Tenn. above 50Delaware belowMax swing 6.5%

DelawareMiddle Tenn.

Aces
Delaware 2·Middle Tenn. 8
Serve err
Delaware 1·Middle Tenn. 7
Blocks
Delaware 6·Middle Tenn. 101 BS · 10 BA vs 4 BS · 12 BA
Digs
Delaware 39·Middle Tenn. 46

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Middle Tenn. above 50 · Delaware below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+6.5% DELrally 135 · set 3

Biggest swing: 6.5% to Delaware — set 1, DEL 25-24 MIDTEN. Kill by Asia Murray (set by Thalia Yancey). MIDTEN win probability 85% → 79%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DEL 9.5%90.5% MIDTEN

Delaware wins

3-0
1.3%
3-1
2.9%
3-2
5.4%

Middle Tenn. wins

3-0
45.2%
3-1
31.5%
3-2
13.7%
DEL break %
39.6% vs this opp
MIDTEN break %
49.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Asia MurrayKill+6.5%

    Kill by Asia Murray (set by Thalia Yancey)

    Set 1 · DEL 25-24 MIDTEN · DEL 15% → 21%

  2. 02
    Middle Tenn.Ace+5.5%

    Middle Tenn. ace on Taylor Holly

    Set 1 · DEL 25-26 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 84% → 89%

  3. 03

    Jaslyn Reed stuffed by Asia Murray & Thalia Yancey

    Set 1 · DEL 24-24 MIDTEN · DEL 10% → 15%

  4. 04
    Sophia HenryKill+5.2%

    Kill by Sophia Henry (set by Caroline Macander)

    Set 1 · DEL 25-25 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 79% → 84%

  5. 05

    Morgan Campbell stuffed by Michaela Dlouhá

    Set 1 · DEL 26-28 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 89% → 94%

  6. 06
    Middle Tenn.Service error+4.3%

    Middle Tenn. service error

    Set 1 · DEL 26-26 MIDTEN · DEL 11% → 15%

  7. 07
    Sofia Guerrero-WilsonAttack error+4.3%

    Attack error by Sofia Guerrero-Wilson

    Set 1 · DEL 26-27 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 85% → 89%

  8. 08
    Middle Tenn.Ace+4.3%

    Middle Tenn. ace on Anna Logan Gillens

    Set 1 · DEL 22-23 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 84% → 88%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
39220.3500002202110
35320.100000100216
33512-.167000101225
33321.00030053010.53.5
3249-.22200000031.53.5
3005.0002111600001
3103.333010400002
3001.000000920000
3001.000000200000
3000–000400000
3000–000510000
2329.111000000003
Team totals2619101.0692421398110657
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
314741.1710426002119
314220.6000001034519
33210.100000101225
34512-.08300010010.54.5
3102.500022500003
3106.1673700120010.51.5
312624.2500004002113
3000–522820002
3000–101800000
Team totals4922115.23543874624121078

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Delaware vs Middle Tenn.

Season series · Middle Tenn. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 DEL · MIDTEN 11

Set 1

26-28

Longest run 4 DELMIDTEN 4

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 3 DELMIDTEN 11

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 2 DELMIDTEN 5

Bars above the line = Middle Tenn. leads, below = Delaware leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Delaware

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%7/15
44%4/9
2
41%7/17
36%4/11
3
27%6/22
46%6/13
4
45%5/11
40%4/10
5
100%5/5
29%2/7
6
57%4/7
38%3/8
All
44%34/77
40%23/58

Middle Tenn.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%7/12
63%10/16
2
64%7/11
56%9/16
3
60%6/10
50%6/12
4
60%6/10
73%16/22
5
83%5/6
17%1/6
6
44%4/9
20%1/5
All
60%35/58
56%43/77

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

135 rallies

#DEL-MIDTENSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MIDTENMIDTENKillSophia Henry+1.1
21-1MIDTENDELKillAnna Logan Gillensset Thalia Yancey+1.0
32-1DELDELAttack errSophia Henry+1.3
42-2DELMIDTEN×4Attack errAsia Murray+1.0
52-3MIDTENMIDTEN×4KillJaslyn Reedset Marianne Garcia+1.2
62-4MIDTENMIDTEN×4KillKendall Mignereyset Caroline Macander+1.1
72-5MIDTENMIDTEN×4AceMiddle Tenn.aced Jayda Gray+0.9
83-5MIDTENDEL×4KillThalia Yanceyset Kennedi Inman+0.8
94-5DELDEL×4BlockedSophia Henryblk Sofia Guerrero-Wilson, Morgan Campbell+1.1
105-5DELDEL×4KillSofia Guerrero-Wilsonset Kennedi Inman+1.3
116-5DELDEL×4Attack errSophia Henry+1.5
126-6DELMIDTEN×3KillJaslyn Reedset Caroline Macander+1.1
136-7MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+1.3
146-8MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+1.2
157-8MIDTENDELKillSofia Guerrero-Wilsonset Kennedi Inman+1.0
168-8DELDELBlockedSophia Henryblk Morgan Campbell+1.5
178-9DELMIDTENAttack errThalia Yancey+1.1
189-9MIDTENDELKillMorgan Campbellset Kennedi Inman+1.2
199-10DELMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+1.2
2010-10MIDTENDELKillAnna Logan Gillensset Thalia Yancey+1.3
2110-11DELMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+1.2
2211-11MIDTENDELAttack errJaslyn Reed+1.3
2312-11DELDELAttack errJaslyn Reed+1.9
2412-12DELMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+1.4
2512-13MIDTENMIDTENBlockedAsia Murrayblk Logan Carr+1.7
2613-13MIDTENDELServe errMiddle Tenn.+1.5
2714-13DELDELAttack errJaslyn Reed+2.1
2814-14DELMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+1.6
2915-14MIDTENDELKillSofia Guerrero-Wilsonset Kennedi Inman+1.8
3015-15DELMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+1.7
3115-16MIDTENMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouhá+2.0
3216-16MIDTENDELServe errMiddle Tenn.+1.7
3316-17DELMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+1.7
3416-18MIDTENMIDTENAceMiddle Tenn.aced Thalia Yancey+1.9
3517-18MIDTENDELServe errMiddle Tenn.+1.5
3618-18DELDELBlockedMichaela Dlouháblk Anna Logan Gillens, Morgan Campbell+2.4
3718-19DELMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+2.0
3819-19MIDTENDELKillAnna Logan Gillensset Kennedi Inman+2.1
3919-20DELMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+2.2
4020-20MIDTENDEL×3KillAnna Logan Gillensset Kennedi Inman+2.3
4121-20DELDEL×3KillAnna Logan Gillens+3.6
4222-20DELDEL×3Attack errLogan Carr+4.0
4322-21DELMIDTEN×4KillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+2.4
4422-22MIDTENMIDTEN×4Bad setKennedi Inman+4.0
4522-23MIDTENMIDTEN×4AceMiddle Tenn.aced Anna Logan Gillens+4.3
4622-24MIDTENMIDTEN×4BlockedAnna Logan Gillensblk Jaslyn Reed, Logan Carr+3.6
4723-24MIDTENDEL×3BlockedSophia Henryblk Asia Murray, Sofia Guerrero-Wilson+1.7
4824-24DELDEL×3BlockedJaslyn Reedblk Asia Murray, Thalia Yancey+5.3
4925-24DELDEL×3KillAsia Murrayset Thalia Yancey+6.5
5025-25DELMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+5.2
5125-26MIDTENMIDTENAceMiddle Tenn.aced Taylor Holly+5.5
5226-26MIDTENDELServe errMiddle Tenn.+4.3
5326-27DELMIDTENAttack errSofia Guerrero-Wilson+4.3
5426-28MIDTENMIDTENBlockedMorgan Campbellblk Michaela Dlouhá+4.5
Set 2
11-0DELDELAceDelawareaced Marianne Garcia+0.9
21-1DELMIDTENKillJaslyn Reedset Caroline Macander+0.7
32-1MIDTENDELServe errMiddle Tenn.+0.8
42-2DELMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+0.7
53-2MIDTENDELAttack errSophia Henry+0.8
63-3DELMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Marianne Garcia+0.7
73-4MIDTENMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+0.9
84-4MIDTENDELKillThalia Yanceyset Kennedi Inman+0.7
95-4DELDELAttack errGabrielle Clinkscale+1.0
105-5DELMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+0.8
116-5MIDTENDELAttack errGabrielle Clinkscale+0.9
126-6DELMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+0.8
137-6MIDTENDEL×3KillAnna Logan Gillensset Kennedi Inman+0.9
148-6DELDEL×3KillAnna Logan Gillensset Logan Carr+1.2
159-6DELDEL×3Attack errGabrielle Clinkscale+1.3
169-7DELMIDTEN×3KillLogan Carrset Caroline Macander+0.9
179-8MIDTENMIDTEN×3Attack errAnna Logan Gillens+1.2
189-9MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillJaslyn Reedset Logan Carr+1.1
1910-9MIDTENDELKillAsia Murrayset Kennedi Inman+1.0
2010-10DELMIDTENServe errKennedi Inman+0.9
2111-10MIDTENDELAttack errJaslyn Reed+1.1
2211-11DELMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+1.0
2311-12MIDTENMIDTENBlockedAsia Murrayblk Michaela Dlouhá, Sophia Henry+1.2
2412-12MIDTENDEL×3KillSofia Guerrero-Wilsonset Kennedi Inman+1.0
2513-12DELDEL×3KillThalia Yanceyset Kennedi Inman+1.4
2614-12DELDEL×3Attack errSophia Henry+1.6
2714-13DELMIDTEN×11KillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+1.1
2814-14MIDTENMIDTEN×11Attack errSophia Henry+1.4
2914-15MIDTENMIDTEN×11BlockedSofia Guerrero-Wilsonblk Michaela Dlouhá, Gabrielle Clinkscale+1.3
3014-16MIDTENMIDTEN×11KillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+1.2
3114-17MIDTENMIDTEN×11KillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+1.0
3214-18MIDTENMIDTEN×11AceMiddle Tenn.aced Thalia Yancey+0.8
3314-19MIDTENMIDTEN×11AceMiddle Tenn.aced Jayda Gray+0.5
3414-20MIDTENMIDTEN×11Attack errMorgan Campbell+0.3
3514-21MIDTENMIDTEN×11BlockedThalia Yanceyblk Caroline Macander, Michaela Dlouhá+0.2
3614-22MIDTENMIDTEN×11KillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+0.1
3714-23MIDTENMIDTEN×11AceMiddle Tenn.aced Anna Logan Gillens·
3815-23MIDTENDELServe errMiddle Tenn.·
3916-23DELDELAttack errGabrielle Clinkscale·
4016-24DELMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander·
4116-25MIDTENMIDTENBlockedMorgan Campbellblk Logan Carr, Gabrielle Clinkscale·
Set 3
10-1MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillSophia Henryset Marianne Garcia+0.4
20-2MIDTENMIDTEN×3AceMiddle Tenn.aced Thalia Yancey+0.3
30-3MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillLogan Carr+0.3
41-3MIDTENDELKillSofia Guerrero-Wilsonset Kennedi Inman+0.2
51-4DELMIDTEN×5KillLogan Carrset Caroline Macander+0.2
61-5MIDTENMIDTEN×5Attack errThalia Yancey+0.3
71-6MIDTENMIDTEN×5KillMichaela Dlouhá+0.2
81-7MIDTENMIDTEN×5KillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+0.2
91-8MIDTENMIDTEN×5BlockedSofia Guerrero-Wilsonblk Michaela Dlouhá, Sophia Henry+0.1
102-8MIDTENDELKillCarolina Sayeg Blakset Kennedi Inman+0.1
113-8DELDELAttack errMichaela Dlouhá+0.2
123-9DELMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+0.1
134-9MIDTENDELKillMorgan Campbellset Kennedi Inman+0.1
145-9DELDELAceDelawareaced Marianne Garcia+0.2
155-10DELMIDTEN×3KillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+0.2
165-11MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Marianne Garcia+0.2
175-12MIDTENMIDTEN×3Attack errCarolina Sayeg Blak+0.1
186-12MIDTENDELKillCarolina Sayeg Blakset Kennedi Inman+0.1
196-13DELMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander+0.1
207-13MIDTENDELKillAnna Logan Gillensset Kennedi Inman+0.1
217-14DELMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander+0.1
227-15MIDTENMIDTENAttack errAsia Murray+0.1
238-15MIDTENDELKillAnna Logan Gillensset Kennedi Inman·
248-16DELMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander+0.1
259-16MIDTENDELServe errMiddle Tenn.·
269-17DELMIDTENAttack errCarolina Sayeg Blak+0.1
279-18MIDTENMIDTENKillMichaela Dlouháset Marianne Garcia·
2810-18MIDTENDELKillCarolina Sayeg Blakset Kennedi Inman·
2910-19DELMIDTENKillSophia Henryset Caroline Macander·
3010-20MIDTENMIDTENBlockedMorgan Campbellblk Michaela Dlouhá·
3111-20MIDTENDELKillJayda Reddset Kennedi Inman·
3211-21DELMIDTEN×3KillMichaela Dlouháset Caroline Macander·
3311-22MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander·
3411-23MIDTENMIDTEN×3KillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Marianne Garcia·
3512-23MIDTENDELKillMorgan Campbellset Kennedi Inman·
3613-23DELDELAttack errGabrielle Clinkscale·
3713-24DELMIDTENKillGabrielle Clinkscaleset Caroline Macander·
3814-24MIDTENDELAttack errGabrielle Clinkscale·
3915-24DELDELBlockedLogan Carrblk Anna Logan Gillens, Asia Murray·
4015-25DELMIDTENKillCaroline Macanderset Addison Burks·

Score shown after each rally, Delaware first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).