FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwaySWAC

0:3

HomeCUSA

Jacksonville St. def. Southern U. 3–0

(25-19, 25-23, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SOUTHR	19	23	23	0
JAX ST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

JAX ST above 50 · SOUTHR below

Biggest swing: 4.8% to Jacksonville St. — set 2, SOUTHR 23-24 JAX ST. Kill by Sophia Schweikert (set by Addison Stone). JAX ST win probability 88% → 93%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SOUTHR 16.7%83.3% JAX ST

Southern U. wins

3-0

2.6%

3-1

5.4%

3-2

8.7%

Jacksonville St. wins

3-0

35.1%

3-1

31.0%

3-2

17.2%

SOUTHR break %: 40.0% vs this opp
JAX ST break %: 47.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sophia SchweikertKill+4.8%
Kill by Sophia Schweikert (set by Addison Stone)
Set 2 · SOUTHR 23-24 JAX ST · JAX ST 88% → 93%
02
Mariah MottAttack error+4.1%
Attack error by Mariah Mott
Set 2 · SOUTHR 23-23 JAX ST · JAX ST 84% → 88%
03
Claire EvansKill+4.1%
Kill by Claire Evans (set by Addison Stone)
Set 2 · SOUTHR 23-25 JAX ST · JAX ST 93% → 97%
04
Azavia ThomasAttack error+3.4%
Azavia Thomas stuffed by Norielle Battle & Sereniti Johnson
Set 2 · SOUTHR 22-20 JAX ST · SOUTHR 14% → 17%
05
Mariah MottKill+3.1%
Kill by Mariah Mott (set by Penina Vito)
Set 2 · SOUTHR 23-21 JAX ST · SOUTHR 15% → 18%
06
Alayah WilsonKill+2.8%
Kill by Alayah Wilson (set by Sereniti Johnson)
Set 2 · SOUTHR 20-19 JAX ST · SOUTHR 10% → 13%
07
Sophia SchweikertAttack error+2.5%
Sophia Schweikert stuffed by Norielle Battle & Mariah Mott
Set 2 · SOUTHR 21-20 JAX ST · SOUTHR 11% → 14%
08
Norielle BattleKill+2.1%
Kill by Norielle Battle
Set 2 · SOUTHR 18-18 JAX ST · SOUTHR 8% → 10%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern U.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Sereniti JohnsonOH	3	16	5	37	.297	1	1	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	17.5
5Mariah MottOH	3	13	8	35	.143	1	0	2	10	0	0	3	1.5	14.5
15Norielle BattleOH	3	4	2	8	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
18Paulina Agudelo MarinMB	3	2	2	8	.000	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
10Penina VitoS	3	1	0	5	.200	35	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	2
2Reagan RobinsonL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	1	0	2	8	1	0	0	0	0
14Alayah WilsonOH	3	4	5	21	-.048	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
19Najah HarrisDS	3	0	1	2	-.500	1	1	1	19	0	0	0	0	1
7Ayana JohnsonDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
4Braelynn ReeseOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1
Team totals		40	24	121	.132	39	3	9	53	2	1	8	5	65

Jacksonville St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Sophia SchweikertOH	3	10	5	21	.238	0	0	1	6	1	0	1	0.5	10.5
13Taya NordmannMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	1	5	0	1	3	2.5	7.5
8Lauren BuchananOH	3	5	2	21	.143	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	5
9Azavia ThomasOH	3	4	2	14	.143	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
6Anna RayOH	3	3	0	10	.300	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
23Sofia VarelaS	3	0	0	0	–	17	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	1
26Claire EvansOH	3	11	0	30	.367	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	12
2Addison StoneS	3	0	0	1	.000	18	1	1	11	0	0	0	0	1
16Delaney MoonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	10	1	0	0	0	0
5Izzy WhittakerOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Krista KostoffMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
4Mia DuongL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Selin SakirogluOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	10	106	.264	37	2	7	49	3	1	6	4	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 SOUTHR · JAX ST 5

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 SOUTHRJAX ST 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 SOUTHRJAX ST 4

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 4 SOUTHRJAX ST 5

Bars above the line = Jacksonville St. leads, below = Southern U. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southern U.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%9/14	36%4/11
2	78%7/9	40%6/15
3	40%6/15	42%5/12
4	38%6/16	33%3/9
5	55%6/11	25%2/8
6	67%6/9	45%5/11
All	54%40/74	38%25/66

Jacksonville St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	38%5/13
2	54%7/13	30%3/10
3	78%7/9	36%4/11
4	60%6/10	70%14/20
5	67%6/9	40%4/10
6	60%6/10	40%4/10
All	62%41/66	46%34/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

140 rallies

Rally log

#	SOUTHR-JAX ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+1.3
2	1-1	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+1.2
3	1-2	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Sofia Varela	+1.5
4	2-2	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Reagan Robinson	+1.2
5	2-3	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Attack err	Paulina Agudelo Marin		+1.1
6	2-4	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+1.4
7	3-4	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Serve err	JAX ST server		+1.1
8	3-5	SOUTHR	JAX ST×3	Kill	Taya Nordmann	set Sofia Varela	+1.1
9	3-6	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+1.2
10	3-7	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Ace	JAX ST server	aced Reagan Robinson	+1.1
11	4-7	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert		+0.8
12	4-8	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.8
13	5-8	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Penina Vito	+0.8
14	5-9	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.9
15	6-9	JAX ST	SOUTHR×3	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.8
16	7-9	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan		+1.3
17	8-9	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Alayah Wilson	set Najah Harris	+1.6
18	8-10	SOUTHR	JAX ST×4	Attack err	Norielle Battle		+1.3
19	8-11	JAX ST	JAX ST×4	Ace	JAX ST server	aced Alayah Wilson	+1.4
20	8-12	JAX ST	JAX ST×4	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+1.2
21	8-13	JAX ST	JAX ST×4	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+1.0
22	9-13	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.6
23	9-14	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+0.7
24	10-14	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.6
25	10-15	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+0.7
26	10-16	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Mariah Mott	blk Taya Nordmann, Sophia Schweikert	+0.7
27	11-16	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.4
28	11-17	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+0.5
29	12-17	JAX ST	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.4
30	13-17	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Sophia Schweikert	+0.8
31	14-17	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Paulina Agudelo Marin	set Penina Vito	+1.1
32	14-18	SOUTHR	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Alayah Wilson	blk Claire Evans, Taya Nordmann	+1.1
33	14-19	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Alayah Wilson		+1.0
34	14-20	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+0.6
35	15-20	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.3
36	16-20	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Taya Nordmann		+0.7
37	16-21	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+0.7
38	16-22	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Alayah Wilson		+0.5
39	17-22	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.2
40	17-23	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+0.3
41	17-24	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Norielle Battle		+0.1
42	18-24	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.0
43	19-24	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Bad set	Sofia Varela		+0.1
44	19-25	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Sofia Varela	+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Anna Ray	set Sofia Varela	+0.8
2	1-1	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.9
3	1-2	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+0.8
4	2-2	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.9
5	3-2	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+1.3
6	3-3	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Attack err	Najah Harris		+0.9
7	4-3	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+1.0
8	5-3	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+1.4
9	5-4	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+1.0
10	6-4	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+1.1
11	6-5	SOUTHR	JAX ST×3	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Addison Stone	+1.0
12	6-6	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Kill	Anna Ray	set Addison Stone	+1.3
13	6-7	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+1.2
14	7-7	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Attack err	Paulina Agudelo Marin		+1.0
15	7-8	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+1.0
16	7-9	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Penina Vito		+1.2
17	8-9	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Bad set	Anna Ray		+0.9
18	9-9	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Team	+1.4
19	9-10	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Attack err	Alayah Wilson		+1.0
20	9-11	JAX ST	JAX ST	Bad set	Penina Vito		+1.3
21	10-11	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Alayah Wilson	set Penina Vito	+1.0
22	11-11	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert	blk Mariah Mott, Norielle Battle	+1.5
23	11-12	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+1.1
24	12-12	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+1.2
25	12-13	SOUTHR	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+1.2
26	12-14	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+1.4
27	12-15	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+1.2
28	13-15	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.9
29	14-15	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan		+1.5
30	14-16	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+1.2
31	14-17	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Paulina Agudelo Marin		+1.3
32	15-17	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.9
33	15-18	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Taya Nordmann	set Addison Stone	+1.1
34	16-18	JAX ST	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+1.0
35	17-18	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Norielle Battle	set Penina Vito	+1.7
36	18-18	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Norielle Battle		+2.1
37	18-19	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+1.7
38	19-19	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+1.8
39	20-19	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Alayah Wilson	set Sereniti Johnson	+2.8
40	20-20	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+2.0
41	21-20	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert	blk Norielle Battle, Mariah Mott	+2.5
42	22-20	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Azavia Thomas	blk Norielle Battle, Sereniti Johnson	+3.4
43	22-21	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+2.0
44	23-21	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+3.1
45	23-22	SOUTHR	JAX ST×4	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+2.1
46	23-23	JAX ST	JAX ST×4	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+4.1
47	23-24	JAX ST	JAX ST×4	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Addison Stone	+4.8
48	23-25	JAX ST	JAX ST×4	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+4.1
Set 3
1	1-0	JAX ST	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Norielle Battle	set Penina Vito	+0.5
2	2-0	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.6
3	3-0	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×3	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.7
4	3-1	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+0.5
5	3-2	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Delaney Moon	+0.6
6	4-2	JAX ST	SOUTHR×4	Kill	Norielle Battle	set Penina Vito	+0.5
7	5-2	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×4	Ace	SOUTHR server	aced Delaney Moon	+0.7
8	6-2	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×4	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert	blk Paulina Agudelo Marin, Mariah Mott	+0.7
9	7-2	SOUTHR	SOUTHR×4	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.7
10	7-3	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+0.5
11	7-4	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+0.6
12	8-4	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.6
13	8-5	SOUTHR	JAX ST×4	Kill	Taya Nordmann	set Sofia Varela	+0.5
14	8-6	JAX ST	JAX ST×4	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+0.7
15	8-7	JAX ST	JAX ST×4	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson	blk Claire Evans, Taya Nordmann	+0.7
16	8-8	JAX ST	JAX ST×4	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+0.7
17	9-8	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.6
18	9-9	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+0.5
19	10-9	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.6
20	11-9	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.8
21	11-10	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Taya Nordmann	set Addison Stone	+0.6
22	11-11	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+0.8
23	12-11	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Penina Vito	set Mariah Mott	+0.7
24	12-12	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Anna Ray	set Najah Harris	+0.6
25	13-12	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+0.7
26	14-12	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Azavia Thomas		+1.0
27	14-13	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.7
28	15-13	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.8
29	16-13	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Sereniti Johnson	set Penina Vito	+1.0
30	16-14	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Delaney Moon	+0.6
31	16-15	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+0.9
32	17-15	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.9
33	18-15	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert	blk Braelynn Reese	+1.1
34	18-16	SOUTHR	JAX ST×5	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+0.7
35	18-17	JAX ST	JAX ST×5	Attack err	Sereniti Johnson		+1.0
36	18-18	JAX ST	JAX ST×5	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+1.1
37	18-19	JAX ST	JAX ST×5	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+1.1
38	18-20	JAX ST	JAX ST×5	Attack err	Braelynn Reese	blk Taya Nordmann	+1.0
39	19-20	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.7
40	19-21	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Attack err	Alayah Wilson		+0.8
41	19-22	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Taya Nordmann	set Addison Stone	+0.8
42	20-22	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Alayah Wilson	set Penina Vito	+0.5
43	21-22	SOUTHR	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+1.0
44	21-23	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Serve err	SOUTHR server		+1.0
45	22-23	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Bad set	Lauren Buchanan		+0.8
46	22-24	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Addison Stone	+1.2
47	23-24	JAX ST	SOUTHR	Kill	Mariah Mott	set Penina Vito	+0.7
48	23-25	SOUTHR	JAX ST	Attack err	Mariah Mott		+1.5

Score shown after each rally, Southern U. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.