FinalWed, Oct 21, 2026

Southern U. def. Dillard 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Dillard 66.6% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 21, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Southern U. beat visiting Dillard 3-0 (25-23, 25-20, 25-18) on Wed, Oct 21, 2026. Southern U.'s Sereniti Johnson led with 12 kills, and Najah Harris added 11 digs.

Data through · final Oct 21

Set123Sets
DILLRD2320180
SOUTHR2525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

5 aces from Maleah Faust, and Southern U. needed each of them.

One stretch decided it. Percentages are Southern U.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, Dillard was RallyIQ's 67% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Dillard 22–22 Southern U.

    Southern U. won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–23 and lead 1–0. The match swung to Southern U.

    Southern U. 35% → 54%

Southern U. above 50Dillard belowMax swing 9.9%

DillardSouthern U.

Sideout %
Dillard 48.6·Southern U. 59.7
Break %
Dillard 40.3·Southern U. 51.4
Hitting
Dillard .070·Southern U. .127
Longest run
Dillard 5·Southern U. 7

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern U. above 50 · Dillard below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+9.9% SOUTHRrally 136 · set 3

Biggest swing: 9.9% to Southern U. — set 1, DILLRD 23-25 SOUTHR. Southern U. ace on Cydne Clyton. SOUTHR win probability 44% → 54%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DILLRD 56.7%43.3% SOUTHR

Dillard wins

3-0
15.5%
3-1
21.5%
3-2
19.6%

Southern U. wins

3-0
9.9%
3-1
16.0%
3-2
17.5%
DILLRD break %
48.2% vs this opp
SOUTHR break %
46.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Southern U.Ace+9.9%

    Southern U. ace on Cydne Clyton

    Set 1 · DILLRD 23-25 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 44% → 54%

  2. 02
    Southern U.Ace+9.3%

    Southern U. ace on Neveah Bax

    Set 1 · DILLRD 23-24 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 35% → 44%

  3. 03

    Kill by Braelynn Reese (set by Maleah Faust)

    Set 1 · DILLRD 23-23 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 29% → 35%

  4. 04
    Neveah BaxKill+6.0%

    Kill by Neveah Bax (set by Kristian Thomas)

    Set 1 · DILLRD 23-22 SOUTHR · DILLRD 65% → 71%

  5. 05
    Neveah BaxAttack error+5.1%

    Attack error by Neveah Bax

    Set 1 · DILLRD 22-22 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 30% → 35%

  6. 06

    Kill by Makaela Swoopes (set by Kristian Thomas)

    Set 1 · DILLRD 22-21 SOUTHR · DILLRD 65% → 70%

  7. 07
    Makaela SwoopesAttack error+4.9%

    Attack error by Makaela Swoopes

    Set 1 · DILLRD 21-21 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 30% → 35%

  8. 08
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+3.7%

    Point Southern U. (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 1 · DILLRD 21-20 SOUTHR · SOUTHR 26% → 30%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
35110.40002110031.58.5
3417.42900000153.57.5
3011-1.000101410000
3000–1201700000
2219.111000000213
22511-.273001810002
3209.22200000052.54.5
3114.000211830002
3002.000511820001
27416.18800001010.57.5
2002.000000000000
1006.000000210000
1015-.200000000000
1024-.500000000000
1000–200100000
Team totals231786.07022463910116961
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312322.40900030010.512.5
38523.13000000010.58.5
3325.200011001437
36517.05900000010.56.5
35411.09100000010.55.5
3011-1.0002102800000
3000–950800005
3000–2411120004
32211.000101810002
2019-.111000100000
2000–102300000
1329.111000000214
1112.000000100001
Team totals4026110.12734107434110675

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 DILLRD · SOUTHR 7

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 5 DILLRDSOUTHR 7

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 DILLRDSOUTHR 3

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 DILLRDSOUTHR 7

Bars above the line = Southern U. leads, below = Dillard leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Dillard

No clean sets to split.

Southern U.

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

136 rallies

#DILLRD-SOUTHRSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SOUTHR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.1
21-1SOUTHRDILLRD×3KillSarai Rodgersset Cydne Clyton+1.9
32-1DILLRDDILLRD×3KillMakaela Swoopes+2.0
43-1DILLRDDILLRD×3Serve errDillard+2.0
53-2DILLRDSOUTHRServe errDillard+1.8
64-2SOUTHRDILLRDAttack errAlayah Wilson+1.8
75-2DILLRDDILLRDAttack errPaulina Agudelo Marin+1.9
85-3DILLRDSOUTHRKillPaulina Agudelo Marinset Penina Vito+1.7
96-3SOUTHRDILLRDAttack errPaulina Agudelo Marin+1.8
107-3DILLRD
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.8
117-4DILLRDSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Penina Vito+1.5
128-4SOUTHRDILLRDKillKhara Mortonset Kristian Thomas+1.6
138-5DILLRDSOUTHRServe errDillard+1.5
149-5SOUTHRDILLRDServe errSouthern U.+1.7
159-6DILLRDSOUTHRServe errDillard+1.6
1610-6SOUTHRDILLRDKillCadence Thomasset Kristian Thomas+1.7
1711-6DILLRDDILLRDKillNeveah Baxset Cydne Clyton+1.6
1811-7DILLRDSOUTHR×7Attack errNeveah Bax+1.3
1911-8SOUTHR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.8
2011-9SOUTHRSOUTHR×7Bad setAjanae Chatham+2.1
21–2211-11SOUTHR 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+5.1
2311-12SOUTHRSOUTHR×7KillReagan Robinson+2.9
2411-13SOUTHRSOUTHR×7KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+3.0
2512-13SOUTHRDILLRDServe errSouthern U.+2.5
2613-13DILLRDDILLRDKillMakaela Swoopes+2.9
2713-14DILLRDSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Penina Vito+2.9
2814-14SOUTHRDILLRD×5KillMakaela Swoopesset Ajanae Chatham+2.8
2915-14DILLRDDILLRD×5AceCadence Thomas+3.1
3016-14DILLRDDILLRD×5BlockedAlayah Wilsonblk Gabrielle Johnson, Sarai Rodgers+3.0
3117-14DILLRDDILLRD×5Attack errNorielle Battle+2.7
3218-14DILLRDDILLRD×5AceCadence Thomasaced Najah Harris+2.3
3318-15DILLRDSOUTHR×3Attack errSarai Rodgers+1.7
3418-16SOUTHRSOUTHR×3AceSouthern U.+2.5
3518-17SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Attack errMakaela Swoopes+3.2
3619-17SOUTHRDILLRD×3KillSarai Rodgersset Ajanae Chatham+3.2
3720-17DILLRDDILLRD×3AceKristian Thomasaced Najah Harris+3.1
3821-17DILLRDDILLRD×3Attack errAlayah Wilson+2.4
3921-18DILLRDSOUTHR×4KillAlayah Wilson+1.6
4021-19SOUTHRSOUTHR×4AceSouthern U.aced Cydne Clyton+2.6
4121-20SOUTHR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.7
4221-21SOUTHRSOUTHR×4Attack errMakaela Swoopes+4.9
4322-21SOUTHRDILLRDKillMakaela Swoopesset Kristian Thomas+5.0
4422-22DILLRDSOUTHRAttack errNeveah Bax+5.1
4523-22SOUTHRDILLRDKillNeveah Baxset Kristian Thomas+6.0
4623-23DILLRDSOUTHR×3KillBraelynn Reeseset Maleah Faust+6.1
4723-24SOUTHRSOUTHR×3AceSouthern U.aced Neveah Bax+9.3
4823-25SOUTHRSOUTHR×3AceSouthern U.aced Cydne Clyton+9.9
Set 2
1–20-2SOUTHR 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+5.0
30-3SOUTHRSOUTHR×3KillNorielle Battleset Najah Harris+2.7
41-3SOUTHRDILLRDKillCadence Thomasset Ajanae Chatham+2.3
51-4DILLRDSOUTHR×3KillNorielle Battleset Penina Vito+2.5
61-5SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Attack errNeveah Bax+2.7
71-6SOUTHRSOUTHR×3KillAlayah Wilsonset Ayana Johnson+2.6
82-6SOUTHRDILLRDServe errSouthern U.+2.0
93-6DILLRDDILLRDBad setPenina Vito+2.5
103-7DILLRDSOUTHR×3Serve errDillard+2.6
113-8SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Attack errKadence Busby+2.7
123-9SOUTHRSOUTHR×3AceSouthern U.aced Cydne Clyton+2.4
134-9SOUTHRDILLRDBlockedNorielle Battleblk Gabrielle Johnson, Sarai Rodgers+1.8
144-10SOUTHR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.3
155-10SOUTHRDILLRDAttack errReagan Robinson+1.8
165-11SOUTHR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.3
175-12SOUTHRSOUTHR×3AceSouthern U.aced Jasmyne Mumphrey+2.2
185-13SOUTHRSOUTHR×3AceSouthern U.aced Brianna Coverse+1.8
196-13SOUTHRDILLRD×3Serve errNajah Harris+1.2
207-13DILLRDDILLRD×3Attack errPenina Vito+1.6
218-13DILLRDDILLRD×3AceCydne Clytonaced Reagan Robinson+2.0
228-14SOUTHR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.3
238-15SOUTHRSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+2.1
249-15SOUTHRDILLRDAttack errAlayah Wilson+1.4
2510-15DILLRDDILLRDAttack errSereniti Johnson+1.9
2610-16SOUTHR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.3
2711-16SOUTHRDILLRDAttack errSereniti Johnson+1.7
2811-17DILLRDSOUTHRKillNorielle Battle+2.3
2912-17DILLRD
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.6
3013-17DILLRDDILLRDAttack errNorielle Battle+2.3
3113-18DILLRDSOUTHRKillNorielle Battleset Penina Vito+2.8
3214-18SOUTHRDILLRDKillGabrielle Johnsonset Ajanae Chatham+2.1
3314-19DILLRDSOUTHRKillNorielle Battleset Maleah Faust+2.8
3414-20SOUTHRSOUTHRAttack errGabrielle Johnson+2.3
3515-20SOUTHRDILLRDAttack errBraelynn Reese+1.3
3615-21SOUTHR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.0
3716-21SOUTHRDILLRDKillGabrielle Johnsonset Kristian Thomas+1.1
3817-21DILLRDDILLRDServe errDillard+1.9
3917-22DILLRDSOUTHRBlockedCadence Thomasblk Sereniti Johnson, Paulina Agudelo Marin+2.7
4018-22SOUTHRDILLRDServe errSouthern U.+1.5
4118-23DILLRDSOUTHRKillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+2.4
4219-23SOUTHRDILLRDAttack errReagan Robinson+1.1
4319-24DILLRDSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Penina Vito+2.1
4420-24SOUTHRDILLRDKillCadence Thomasset Ajanae Chatham+0.6
4520-25DILLRDSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Penina Vito+1.3
Set 3
11-0SOUTHRDILLRD×3KillCydne Clytonset Ajanae Chatham+1.7
22-0DILLRD
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.9
33-0DILLRDDILLRD×3Serve errDillard+1.7
43-1DILLRDSOUTHRKillReagan Robinsonset Penina Vito+1.6
54-1SOUTHRDILLRDKillGabrielle Johnsonset Ajanae Chatham+1.6
64-2DILLRDSOUTHR×7Serve errDillard+1.6
74-3SOUTHRSOUTHR×7Serve errSouthern U.+1.9
84-4SOUTHR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.1
94-5SOUTHRSOUTHR×7KillSereniti Johnson+2.2
104-6SOUTHRSOUTHR×7KillSereniti Johnson+2.3
114-7SOUTHRSOUTHR×7KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+2.3
124-8SOUTHRSOUTHR×7Attack errNya St.Cyr+2.3
135-8SOUTHRDILLRDAttack errNya St.Cyr+1.8
145-9DILLRDSOUTHR×4KillSereniti Johnsonset Penina Vito+2.1
155-10SOUTHRSOUTHR×4AceSouthern U.aced Makaela Swoopes+2.2
165-11SOUTHRSOUTHR×4AceSouthern U.aced Kristian Thomas+2.0
175-12SOUTHRSOUTHR×4AceSouthern U.aced Kristian Thomas+1.7
186-12SOUTHRDILLRDKillMakaela Swoopes+1.2
19–207-13DILLRD · SOUTHR
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.4
218-13DILLRDDILLRDAttack errNorielle Battle+1.6
228-14DILLRDSOUTHRAttack errCydne Clyton+1.8
239-14SOUTHRDILLRDBlockedNorielle Battleblk Khara Morton, Gabrielle Johnson+1.4
249-15DILLRDSOUTHRKillAlayah Wilsonset Maleah Faust+1.8
2510-15SOUTHRDILLRDKillGabrielle Johnsonset Ajanae Chatham+1.4
2610-16DILLRDSOUTHR×3KillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+1.8
2710-17SOUTHRSOUTHR×3KillMariah Mott+1.6
2810-18SOUTHRSOUTHR×3BlockedMakaela Swoopesblk Paulina Agudelo Marin, Mariah Mott+1.2
2911-18SOUTHRDILLRDKillMakaela Swoopesset Ajanae Chatham+0.7
3012-18DILLRDDILLRDBlockedMariah Mottblk Makaela Swoopes, Cadence Thomas+1.0
3112-19DILLRDSOUTHRKillZaria Nelsonset Reagan Robinson+1.3
3213-19SOUTHRDILLRDKillMakaela Swoopesset Ajanae Chatham+0.8
3313-20DILLRDSOUTHRKillMariah Mottset Penina Vito+1.2
3413-21SOUTHRSOUTHRKillBraelynn Reeseset Maleah Faust+0.8
3514-21SOUTHRDILLRDAttack errAlayah Wilson+0.4
3615-21DILLRDDILLRDBlockedBraelynn Reeseblk Khara Morton, Cadence Thomas+0.7
3715-22DILLRDSOUTHRServe errDillard+1.0
3816-22SOUTHRDILLRD×3BlockedZaria Nelsonblk Cadence Thomas, Khara Morton+0.4
3917-22DILLRD
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.8
4018-22DILLRDDILLRD×3KillKhara Mortonset Jasmyne Mumphrey+1.3
4118-23DILLRDSOUTHR×3KillBraelynn Reeseset Maleah Faust+1.9
4218-24SOUTHRSOUTHR×3Bad setAysia Robinson+1.0
4318-25SOUTHRSOUTHR×3KillAlayah Wilsonset Maleah Faust+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Dillard first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).