Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026

Radford def. USC Upstate 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: USC Upstate 57.4% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Radford won at USC Upstate 3-1 (25-22, 20-25, 25-20, 26-24) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Radford's Macie Potter led with 16 kills, and Mia Jannazzo added 24 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set1234Sets
RADFRD252025263
SC UPS222520241

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Down 5–9 in the third, Radford took the set and then the match.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Radford's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, USC Upstate was RallyIQ's 57% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Radford 18–17 USC Upstate

    5 straight USC Upstate points turned a 17–18 deficit into a 22–18 lead. The match swung to USC Upstate.

    Radford 68% → 47%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Radford 16–17 USC Upstate

    Radford scored 6 straight to turn a 16–17 deficit into a 22–17 lead. The match swung to Radford.

    Radford 40% → 69%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Radford 24–21 USC Upstate

    Down 21–24, USC Upstate scored 3 straight to tie it at 24.

    Radford 97% → 74%

USC Upstate above 50Radford belowMax swing 14.8%

RadfordUSC Upstate

Sideout %
Radford 57.6·USC Upstate 54.7
Break %
Radford 45.3·USC Upstate 42.4
Hitting
Radford .230·USC Upstate .181
Longest run
Radford 6·USC Upstate 5

Macie Potter
2 of her kills came in the stretches above. 16 K, .222, 18.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

USC Upstate above 50 · Radford below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+14.8% RADFRDrally 187 · set 4

Biggest swing: 14.8% to Radford — set 4, RADFRD 26-24 SC UPS. Kill by Addison Cunnagin. SC UPS win probability 15% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

RADFRD 53.0%47.0% SC UPS

Radford wins

3-0
13.8%
3-1
20.0%
3-2
19.2%

USC Upstate wins

3-0
11.3%
3-1
17.5%
3-2
18.2%
RADFRD break %
42.6% vs this opp
SC UPS break %
42.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Addison Cunnagin

    Set 4 · RADFRD 26-24 SC UPS · RADFRD 85% → 100%

  2. 02
    Addison CunnaginAttack error+14.5%

    Attack error by Addison Cunnagin

    Set 4 · RADFRD 24-24 SC UPS · SC UPS 11% → 26%

  3. 03

    Kill by Addison Cunnagin (set by Alyssa Cadavid)

    Set 4 · RADFRD 25-24 SC UPS · RADFRD 74% → 85%

  4. 04

    Kill by Addison Cunnagin (set by Alyssa Cadavid)

    Set 4 · RADFRD 23-20 SC UPS · RADFRD 88% → 95%

  5. 05
    Aubrey HatchKill+6.3%

    Kill by Aubrey Hatch (set by Alyssa Cadavid)

    Set 4 · RADFRD 22-20 SC UPS · RADFRD 82% → 88%

  6. 06
    Sophia SpiveyKill+6.3%

    Kill by Sophia Spivey (set by Kamyla Vega David)

    Set 4 · RADFRD 24-23 SC UPS · SC UPS 5% → 11%

  7. 07
    Macie PotterKill+6.0%

    Kill by Macie Potter (set by Rose Whitemountain)

    Set 3 · RADFRD 19-17 SC UPS · RADFRD 50% → 56%

  8. 08
    Taryn RobertsBlock+6.0%

    Tien Murray stuffed by Taryn Roberts

    Set 3 · RADFRD 18-17 SC UPS · RADFRD 44% → 50%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416645.222123101010.518.5
415335.34300413200015
410324.29210030334.514.5
47416.188000501018
46213.30810020111.57.5
4024-.5002621600002
48525.12000040031.59.5
4000–2332400003
4103.3332701800001
4000–101400000
Team totals6325165.2305971379458996
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415546.2172135102117
410223.34800121132.512.5
46322.13610130153.59.5
4014-.2502121600002
4011-1.000001500000
2013-.333000000000
4104.2500113000002
4000–1400600000
34015.26700010031.55.5
35212.250100200005
32110.100000300213
3016-.16700010010.50.5
2319.222000100003
2000–000000000
Team totals4618155.18139486572161091

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Radford vs USC Upstate

Season series · Radford leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 RADFRD · SC UPS 5

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 5 RADFRDSC UPS 4

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 RADFRDSC UPS 5

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 6 RADFRDSC UPS 4

Set 4

26-24

Longest run 3 RADFRDSC UPS 3

Bars above the line = USC Upstate leads, below = Radford leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Radford

SlotSideout %Break %
1
80%8/10
53%8/15
2
67%8/12
33%4/12
3
54%7/13
30%3/10
4
47%7/15
42%5/12
5
45%5/11
40%4/10
6
63%5/8
58%7/12
All
58%40/69
44%31/71

USC Upstate

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%8/15
33%3/9
2
64%7/11
20%2/10
3
70%7/10
53%8/15
4
64%7/11
30%3/10
5
38%6/16
56%9/16
6
63%5/8
44%4/9
All
56%40/71
42%29/69

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

187 rallies

#RADFRD-SC UPSSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SC UPSSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Kamyla Vega David+2.4
21-1SC UPSRADFRD×3KillAubrey Hatchset Mia Jannazzo+1.8
32-1RADFRDRADFRD×3BlockedBri Bratholblk Maja Bochenek+2.5
43-1RADFRDRADFRD×3Attack errHannah Campbell+2.5
53-2RADFRDSC UPS×4Serve errRadford+1.8
63-3SC UPSSC UPS×4Attack errAubrey Hatch+2.5
73-4SC UPSSC UPS×4KillTien Murrayset Kamyla Vega David+2.6
83-5SC UPSSC UPS×4KillTien Murrayset Kamyla Vega David+2.5
94-5SC UPSRADFRDServe errUSC Upstate+1.8
105-5RADFRDRADFRDKillAddison Cunnagin+2.6
115-6RADFRDSC UPSServe errRadford+2.0
125-7SC UPSSC UPSAceUSC Upstate+2.6
136-7SC UPSRADFRDServe errUSC Upstate+1.9
146-8RADFRDSC UPSKillSophia Spiveyset Summer Kohler+2.0
157-8SC UPSRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Alyssa Cadavid+2.0
167-9RADFRDSC UPSServe errRadford+2.1
178-9SC UPSRADFRD×3KillTaryn Robertsset Alyssa Cadavid+2.0
189-9RADFRDRADFRD×3BlockedSummer Kohlerblk Taryn Roberts+2.9
1910-9RADFRDRADFRD×3KillMacie Potterset Lea Gage+3.1
2010-10RADFRDSC UPSBad setAubrey Hatch+2.3
2110-11SC UPS
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.1
2211-11SC UPSRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Lea Gage+2.4
2311-12RADFRDSC UPSServe errRadford+2.4
2412-12SC UPSRADFRD×3KillAubrey Hatchset Taryn Roberts+2.5
2513-12RADFRDRADFRD×3Attack errTien Murray+3.5
2614-12RADFRDRADFRD×3KillAubrey Hatchset Lea Gage+3.5
2714-13RADFRDSC UPS×3Attack errOlivia Rynoset Mia Jannazzo+2.4
2814-14SC UPSSC UPS×3KillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+3.5
2914-15SC UPSSC UPS×3AceUSC Upstateaced Aubrey Hatch+3.7
3015-15SC UPSRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Lea Gage+2.8
3115-16RADFRDSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+2.9
3216-16SC UPSRADFRDKillMaja Bochenekset Alyssa Cadavid+2.9
3316-17RADFRDSC UPSServe errRadford+3.1
3417-17SC UPSRADFRD×5KillMacie Potterset Alyssa Cadavid+3.1
3518-17RADFRDRADFRD×5Attack errSophia Spivey+4.5
3619-17RADFRDRADFRD×5Attack errKensley Haneline+4.5
3720-17RADFRDRADFRD×5KillTaryn Roberts+4.1
3821-17RADFRDRADFRD×5KillMacie Potterset Alyssa Cadavid+3.2
3921-18RADFRDSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Kamyla Vega David+1.6
4022-18SC UPSRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Alyssa Cadavid+2.4
4122-19RADFRDSC UPSBlockedMacie Potterblk Kensley Haneline, Cora Hamilton+1.4
4222-20SC UPSSC UPSAttack errTaryn Roberts+3.0
4323-20SC UPSRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Lea Gage+3.6
4423-21RADFRDSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Sarah O'Connor+2.0
4523-22SC UPSSC UPSAttack errLea Gage+4.7
4624-22SC UPSRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Lea Gage+5.9
4725-22RADFRDRADFRDBlockedSummer Kohlerblk Olivia Ryno+4.5
Set 2
11-0RADFRDRADFRDKillOlivia Rynoset Lea Gage+2.7
21-1RADFRDSC UPSAttack errLea Gageset Macie Potter+2.0
32-1SC UPSRADFRD×3KillAubrey Hatchset Lea Gage+2.1
43-1RADFRDRADFRD×3KillAubrey Hatchset Alyssa Cadavid+2.8
54-1RADFRDRADFRD×3KillMaja Bochenekset Alyssa Cadavid+2.7
64-2RADFRDSC UPS×5KillSummer Kohler+1.9
74-3SC UPSSC UPS×5BlockedAddison Cunnaginblk Savannah Page, Tien Murray+2.7
84-4SC UPSSC UPS×5Attack errAubrey Hatch+2.8
94-5SC UPSSC UPS×5KillSophia Overholtset Sarah O'Connor+2.8
104-6SC UPSSC UPS×5BlockedAddison Cunnaginblk Tien Murray, Savannah Page+2.8
115-6SC UPSRADFRDKillMaja Bochenekset Alyssa Cadavid+2.0
126-6RADFRDRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Alyssa Cadavid+2.9
136-7RADFRDSC UPSKillSavannah Pageset Sarah O'Connor+2.3
147-7SC UPSRADFRD×3KillAddison Cunnaginset Alyssa Cadavid+2.3
158-7RADFRDRADFRD×3KillTaryn Robertsset Alyssa Cadavid+3.2
169-7RADFRDRADFRD×3KillMacie Potterset Alyssa Cadavid+3.2
179-8RADFRDSC UPSBall handlingAubrey Hatch+2.3
1810-8SC UPSRADFRDServe errUSC Upstate+2.5
1911-8RADFRDRADFRDAceRadford+3.2
2011-9RADFRDSC UPSServe errRadford+2.2
2112-9SC UPSRADFRDServe errUSC Upstate+2.5
2213-9RADFRDRADFRDAceRadford+3.0
2313-10RADFRDSC UPS×4Serve errRadford+1.9
2413-11SC UPSSC UPS×4BlockedOlivia Rynoblk Alyssa Hook, Kensley Haneline+3.0
2513-12SC UPSSC UPS×4KillSavannah Pageset Summer Kohler+3.4
2613-13SC UPSSC UPS×4KillKensley Haneline+3.7
2714-13SC UPSRADFRDKillOlivia Rynoset Lea Gage+3.0
2814-14RADFRDSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Sarah O'Connor+2.9
2914-15SC UPSSC UPSBlockedMaja Bochenekblk Kensley Haneline+4.0
3015-15SC UPSRADFRDKillMaja Bochenek+3.0
3115-16RADFRDSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Sarah O'Connor+3.2
3216-16SC UPSRADFRDServe errUSC Upstate+3.2
3316-17RADFRDSC UPSServe errRadford+3.3
3417-17SC UPSRADFRDKillAlyssa Cadavid+3.4
3518-17RADFRDRADFRDKillAddison Cunnaginset Alyssa Cadavid+4.9
3618-18RADFRDSC UPS×5KillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+3.6
3718-19SC UPSSC UPS×5Attack errMacie Potter+5.1
3818-20SC UPSSC UPS×5Attack errMacie Potter+4.9
3918-21SC UPSSC UPS×5Attack errAddison Cunnagin+4.2
4018-22SC UPSSC UPS×5BlockedTaryn Robertsblk Tien Murray+3.0
4119-22SC UPSRADFRDBlockedAlyssa Hookblk Taryn Roberts, Addison Cunnagin+1.3
4220-22RADFRDRADFRDAceRadford+3.0
4320-23RADFRDSC UPS×3KillAlyssa Hookset Kamyla Vega David+3.5
4420-24SC UPSSC UPS×3Attack errOlivia Ryno+2.6
4520-25SC UPSSC UPS×3KillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+0.8
Set 3
11-0SC UPSRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Lea Gage+2.5
21-1RADFRDSC UPSServe errRadford+2.5
32-1SC UPSRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Lea Gage+2.6
43-1RADFRDRADFRDAceRadford+3.4
53-2RADFRDSC UPS×4BlockedOlivia Rynoblk Summer Kohler, Kensley Haneline+2.5
63-3SC UPSSC UPS×4KillTien Murrayset Sarah O'Connor+3.4
73-4SC UPSSC UPS×4KillTien Murray+3.4
83-5SC UPSSC UPS×4AceUSC Upstateaced Aubrey Hatch+3.4
94-5SC UPSRADFRDKillMaja Bochenekset Lea Gage+2.5
104-6RADFRDSC UPSKillSavannah Pageset Sarah O'Connor+2.6
115-6SC UPSRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Alyssa Cadavid+2.5
125-7RADFRDSC UPS×3KillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+2.7
135-8SC UPSSC UPS×3KillAlyssa Hookset Kamyla Vega David+3.3
145-9SC UPSSC UPS×3KillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+3.0
156-9SC UPSRADFRDServe errUSC Upstate+2.0
167-9RADFRDRADFRDBlockedCora Hamiltonblk Taryn Roberts+3.2
177-10RADFRDSC UPSBlockedAlyssa Hookblk Alyssa Hook, Tien Murray+2.6
188-10SC UPSRADFRD×3KillMacie Potterset Alyssa Cadavid+2.4
199-10RADFRDRADFRD×3KillMacie Potterset Lea Gage+3.7
2010-10RADFRDRADFRD×3KillAubrey Hatchset Lea Gage+4.1
2110-11RADFRDSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Kamyla Vega David+3.2
2211-11SC UPSRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Lea Gage+3.2
2312-11RADFRDRADFRDAceRadfordaced Summer Kohler+4.5
2412-12RADFRDSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Sarah O'Connor+3.3
2513-12SC UPSRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+3.5
2613-13RADFRDSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Sarah O'Connor+3.4
2713-14SC UPSSC UPSBlockedAubrey Hatchblk Tien Murray, Savannah Page+4.7
2814-14SC UPSRADFRDKillOlivia Rynoset Lea Gage+3.6
2915-14RADFRDRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Alyssa Cadavid+5.1
3015-15RADFRDSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Sarah O'Connor+3.8
3115-16SC UPSSC UPSAceUSC Upstateaced Macie Potter+5.2
3216-16SC UPSRADFRDAttack errSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+3.9
3316-17RADFRDSC UPSKillTien Murrayset Addison Cunnagin+4.1
3417-17SC UPSRADFRD×6KillMacie Potterset Alyssa Cadavid+4.2
3518-17RADFRDRADFRD×6BlockedTien Murrayblk Taryn Roberts+6.0
3619-17RADFRDRADFRD×6KillMacie Potterset Rose Whitemountain+6.0
3720-17RADFRDRADFRD×6Attack errKamyla Vega David+5.5
3821-17RADFRDRADFRD×6BlockedTehillah Garrisonblk Addison Cunnagin, Taryn Roberts+4.3
3922-17RADFRDRADFRD×6KillTaryn Robertsset Alyssa Cadavid+2.8
4022-18RADFRDSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Tien Murray+1.1
4123-18SC UPSRADFRDAttack errKensley Hanelineset Kamyla Vega David+1.9
4223-19RADFRDSC UPSKillTehillah Garrisonset Sophia Spivey+0.8
4324-19SC UPSRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Lea Gage+1.5
4424-20RADFRDSC UPSKillTehillah Garrisonset Sarah O'Connor+0.4
4525-20SC UPSRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Lea Gage+0.9
Set 4
11-0RADFRDRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+3.5
22-0RADFRDRADFRDAceRadford+3.6
32-1RADFRDSC UPSServe errRadford+2.6
43-1SC UPSRADFRDKillMaja Bochenekset Mia Jannazzo+2.8
54-1RADFRDRADFRDAttack errSummer Kohler+3.6
64-2RADFRDSC UPSAttack errAddison Cunnaginset Mia Jannazzo+2.5
75-2SC UPSRADFRDKillAddison Cunnaginset Macie Potter+2.8
85-3RADFRDSC UPS×3Serve errRadford+2.6
95-4SC UPSSC UPS×3KillTien Murray+3.7
105-5SC UPSSC UPS×3BlockedMaja Bochenekblk Summer Kohler, Tien Murray+3.8
116-5SC UPSRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Alyssa Cadavid+3.0
126-6RADFRDSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+2.9
137-6SC UPSRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Alyssa Cadavid+3.1
147-7RADFRDSC UPSKillSophia Spiveyset Kamyla Vega David+3.0
158-7SC UPSRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+3.2
168-8RADFRDSC UPSKillSophia Spiveyset Kamyla Vega David+3.1
179-8SC UPSRADFRD×3KillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+3.3
1810-8RADFRDRADFRD×3KillAubrey Hatchset Maja Bochenek+4.4
1911-8RADFRDRADFRD×3AceRadfordaced Kensley Haneline+4.2
2011-9RADFRDSC UPSKillSavannah Pageset Sarah O'Connor+2.9
2112-9SC UPSRADFRDServe errUSC Upstate+3.3
2212-10RADFRDSC UPSKillKensley Haneline+2.9
2313-10SC UPSRADFRDServe errUSC Upstate+3.4
2413-11RADFRDSC UPSKillSummer Kohler+3.0
2514-11SC UPSRADFRDBlockedSophia Spiveyblk Maja Bochenek, Macie Potter+3.5
2615-11RADFRDRADFRDBlockedSummer Kohlerblk Taryn Roberts, Addison Cunnagin+4.2
2715-12RADFRDSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+2.6
2815-13SC UPSSC UPSAttack errMacie Potter+4.2
2916-13SC UPSRADFRDKillAddison Cunnaginset Alyssa Cadavid+3.8
3017-13RADFRDRADFRDAttack errTien Murray+4.3
3117-14RADFRDSC UPS×3KillTehillah Garrisonset Kamyla Vega David+2.6
3217-15SC UPSSC UPS×3Attack errMacie Potter+4.3
3317-16SC UPSSC UPS×3Attack errMacie Potter+5.2
3418-16SC UPSRADFRDKillOlivia Rynoset Lea Gage+4.6
3518-17RADFRDSC UPSKillSophia Spiveyset Kamyla Vega David+4.1
3619-17SC UPSRADFRDKillOlivia Rynoset Lea Gage+4.9
3720-17RADFRDRADFRDKillOlivia Rynoset Lea Gage+5.9
3820-18RADFRDSC UPSServe errRadford+3.4
3920-19SC UPSSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Sarah O'Connor+6.0
4021-19SC UPSRADFRDKillOlivia Rynoset Lea Gage+5.7
4121-20RADFRDSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Sarah O'Connor+4.8
4222-20SC UPSRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Alyssa Cadavid+6.3
4323-20RADFRDRADFRDKillAddison Cunnaginset Alyssa Cadavid+6.8
4423-21RADFRDSC UPSServe errRadford+2.9
4524-21SC UPSRADFRDKillAddison Cunnaginset Alyssa Cadavid+5.3
4624-22RADFRDSC UPS×3KillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+2.1
4724-23SC UPSSC UPS×3KillSophia Spiveyset Kamyla Vega David+6.3
4824-24SC UPSSC UPS×3Attack errAddison Cunnagin+14.5
4925-24SC UPSRADFRDKillAddison Cunnaginset Alyssa Cadavid+10.9
5026-24RADFRDRADFRDKillAddison Cunnagin+14.8

Score shown after each rally, Radford first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).