FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026

Winthrop def. USC Upstate 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Winthrop 80.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Winthrop beat visiting USC Upstate 3-0 (25-16, 25-23, 25-20) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. Winthrop's Paige Bennett led with 16 kills, and Addison Torain added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 17

Set123Sets
SC UPS1623200
WINTHR2525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

16 kills in 3 sets for Paige Bennett. Winthrop swept USC Upstate.

No single rally moved win probability more than 3.5 points. USC Upstate peaked at 26% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Winthrop at 81%.

USC UpstateWinthrop
  • Break %+14.1 pts
    31.145.2

    On serve: 33/73 against 19/61 (USC Upstate sideout 54.8%).

  • Hitting+.089
    .169.258

    Kills and errors: 47–16 vs 37–16.

  • Longest run+5
    49

    Winthrop scored 9 straight in the first set to go from 15–15 to a 24–15 lead. That set ended 25–16.

Winthrop above 50USC Upstate belowMax swing 3.5%

USC UpstateWinthrop

Aces
USC Upstate 2·Winthrop 5
Serve err
USC Upstate 5·Winthrop 4
Blocks
USC Upstate 5·Winthrop 51 BS · 8 BA vs 2 BS · 6 BA
Digs
USC Upstate 50·Winthrop 62

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Winthrop above 50 · USC Upstate below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+3.5% WINTHRrally 134 · set 3

Biggest swing: 3.5% to Winthrop — set 2, SC UPS 23-25 WINTHR. Kill by Paige Bennett (set by Addison Torain). WINTHR win probability 93% → 97%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SC UPS 14.5%85.5% WINTHR

USC Upstate wins

3-0
2.1%
3-1
4.6%
3-2
7.8%

Winthrop wins

3-0
37.7%
3-1
31.4%
3-2
16.4%
SC UPS break %
39.1% vs this opp
WINTHR break %
47.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Paige BennettKill+3.5%

    Kill by Paige Bennett (set by Addison Torain)

    Set 2 · SC UPS 23-25 WINTHR · WINTHR 93% → 97%

  2. 02
    WinthropAce+2.8%

    Winthrop ace on Alyssa Hook

    Set 2 · SC UPS 20-22 WINTHR · WINTHR 90% → 93%

  3. 03
    Laila GloverKill+2.7%

    Kill by Laila Glover (set by Lexi Thatcher)

    Set 2 · SC UPS 22-24 WINTHR · WINTHR 92% → 95%

  4. 04

    Paige Bennett stuffed by Savannah Page & Kensley Haneline

    Set 1 · SC UPS 15-15 WINTHR · SC UPS 18% → 21%

  5. 05
    Paige BennettAttack error+2.6%

    Attack error by Paige Bennett

    Set 2 · SC UPS 19-19 WINTHR · SC UPS 9% → 12%

  6. 06
    Paige BennettKill+2.5%

    Kill by Paige Bennett (set by Lexi Thatcher)

    Set 1 · SC UPS 15-17 WINTHR · WINTHR 81% → 84%

  7. 07
    KeAra BowenKill+2.3%

    Kill by KeAra Bowen

    Set 2 · SC UPS 17-17 WINTHR · WINTHR 85% → 88%

  8. 08
    Reece RhoadsKill+2.3%

    Kill by Reece Rhoads (set by Lexi Thatcher)

    Set 2 · SC UPS 21-23 WINTHR · WINTHR 91% → 94%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
39225.280000200009
37627.037111620008
35120.200001200216
3000–0101200001
3013-.3332400600000
1103.333000000001
3000–2011300000
26110.500000201228
23210.10000021010.53.5
22210.00000202010.52.5
2203.667400100002
2000–000400000
11112.000000000212
11011.000000000001
Team totals3716124.169312550518559
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
316835.2290017110117
311019.5790114002113
34213.15410000010.54.5
3128-.12536101301013
3000–220700002
3000–1011110000
38318.278000400219
37126.23100010010.57.5
3001.0004111500001
Team totals4716120.258445462226575

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

USC Upstate vs Winthrop

Season series · Winthrop leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 SC UPS · WINTHR 9

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 2 SC UPSWINTHR 9

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 SC UPSWINTHR 4

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 4 SC UPSWINTHR 3

Bars above the line = Winthrop leads, below = USC Upstate leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

USC Upstate

SlotSideout %Break %
1
80%8/10
36%4/11
2
64%7/11
38%5/13
3
64%7/11
30%3/10
4
58%7/12
30%3/10
5
40%6/15
13%1/8
6
36%5/14
33%3/9
All
55%40/73
31%19/61

Winthrop

SlotSideout %Break %
1
80%8/10
40%4/10
2
62%8/13
38%5/13
3
64%7/11
13%1/8
4
88%7/8
42%5/12
5
86%6/7
40%4/10
6
50%6/12
70%14/20
All
69%42/61
45%33/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

134 rallies

#SC UPS-WINTHRSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0SC UPSSC UPSAttack errLexi Thatcher+1.8
21-1SC UPSWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+1.3
32-1WINTHRSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+1.4
43-1SC UPSSC UPSKillCora Hamiltonset Kamyla Vega David+2.0
53-2SC UPSWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+1.4
64-2WINTHRSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+1.6
74-3SC UPSWINTHRServe errUSC Upstate+1.4
85-3WINTHRSC UPSKillAlyssa Hookset Kamyla Vega David+1.6
96-3SC UPSSC UPSAttack errGiselle Little+2.2
106-4SC UPSWINTHR×5KillReece Rhoadsset Giselle Little+1.5
116-5WINTHRWINTHR×5KillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+2.0
126-6WINTHRWINTHR×5AceWinthropaced Alyssa Hook+2.0
136-7WINTHRWINTHR×5AceWinthropaced Savannah Page+1.9
146-8WINTHRWINTHR×5Attack errAlyssa Hook+1.7
157-8WINTHRSC UPSAttack errPaige Bennett+1.4
167-9SC UPSWINTHRServe errUSC Upstate+1.4
178-9WINTHRSC UPSKillSavannah Pageset Sarah O'Connor+1.4
188-10SC UPSWINTHRServe errUSC Upstate+1.4
199-10WINTHRSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Sarah O'Connor+1.4
209-11SC UPSWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+1.4
2110-11WINTHRSC UPSKillSophia Spiveyset Kamyla Vega David+1.5
2210-12SC UPSWINTHRAttack errSummer Kohler+1.5
2311-12WINTHRSC UPSAttack errPaige Bennett+1.5
2412-12SC UPSSC UPSKillAlyssa Hookset Summer Kohler+2.3
2512-13SC UPSWINTHRKillReece Rhoadsset Lexi Thatcher+1.8
2612-14WINTHRWINTHRAceWinthropaced Summer Kohler+2.2
2713-14WINTHRSC UPSKillSophia Spiveyset Kamyla Vega David+1.6
2813-15SC UPSWINTHRKillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+1.7
2914-15WINTHRSC UPSKillSavannah Pageset Sarah O'Connor+1.7
3015-15SC UPSSC UPSBlockedPaige Bennettblk Savannah Page, Kensley Haneline+2.7
3115-16SC UPSWINTHR×9KillLaila Gloverset Lexi Thatcher+2.1
3215-17WINTHRWINTHR×9KillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+2.5
3315-18WINTHRWINTHR×9KillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+2.1
3415-19WINTHRWINTHR×9KillPaige Bennettset Alyah Cadavid+1.6
3515-20WINTHRWINTHR×9AceWinthropaced Summer Kohler+1.1
3615-21WINTHRWINTHR×9BlockedSummer Kohlerblk Laila Glover, KeAra Bowen+0.7
3715-22WINTHRWINTHR×9BlockedSummer Kohlerblk KeAra Bowen, Laila Glover+0.3
3815-23WINTHRWINTHR×9KillPaige Bennettset Alyah Cadavid+0.1
3915-24WINTHRWINTHR×9KillLaila Gloverset Lexi Thatcher·
4016-24WINTHRSC UPSAttack errPaige Bennett·
4116-25SC UPSWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher·
Set 2
11-0WINTHRSC UPSKillTien Murrayset Kamyla Vega David+1.0
22-0SC UPSSC UPSAceSummer Kohleraced Paige Bennett+1.4
32-1SC UPSWINTHRServe errSummer Kohler+1.0
42-2WINTHRWINTHRAttack errAlyssa Hook+1.3
53-2WINTHRSC UPSServe errWinthrop+1.1
64-2SC UPSSC UPSBlockedGiselle Littleblk Alyssa Hook, Kensley Haneline+1.5
74-3SC UPSWINTHRBlockedSophia Spiveyblk Giselle Little, Reece Rhoads+1.1
85-3WINTHRSC UPSKillSophia Spiveyset Kamyla Vega David+1.2
96-3SC UPSSC UPSAttack errLaila Glover+1.6
106-4SC UPSWINTHRKillReece Rhoadsset Addison Torain+1.1
116-5WINTHRWINTHRAttack errKensley Haneline+1.5
127-5WINTHRSC UPSKillSarah O'Connor+1.3
137-6SC UPSWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+1.2
148-6WINTHRSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Emma DeSensi+1.3
158-7SC UPSWINTHR×3KillPaige Bennettset Addison Torain+1.2
168-8WINTHRWINTHR×3BlockedSummer Kohlerblk Lexi Thatcher+1.6
178-9WINTHRWINTHR×3Attack errSavannah Page+1.5
189-9WINTHRSC UPS×3Serve errWinthrop+1.2
1910-9SC UPSSC UPS×3BlockedLexi Thatcherblk Tien Murray+1.8
2011-9SC UPSSC UPS×3KillTien Murrayset Lexi Thatcher+1.9
2111-10SC UPSWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+1.3
2212-10WINTHRSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+1.5
2312-11SC UPSWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+1.4
2412-12WINTHRWINTHRBad setKamyla Vega David+1.8
2513-12WINTHRSC UPSKillTien Murrayset Kamyla Vega David+1.5
2613-13SC UPSWINTHRKillReece Rhoadsset Lexi Thatcher+1.4
2714-13WINTHRSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Kamyla Vega David+1.6
2815-13SC UPSSC UPSAttack errReece Rhoads+2.2
2915-14SC UPSWINTHRAttack errSavannah Page+1.5
3016-14WINTHRSC UPSKillSarah O'Connor+1.8
3116-15SC UPSWINTHRServe errAlyssa Hook+1.6
3217-15WINTHRSC UPSAttack errPaige Bennett+1.9
3317-16SC UPSWINTHR×4KillLaila Gloverset Lexi Thatcher+1.7
3417-17WINTHRWINTHR×4KillKeAra Bowen+2.3
3517-18WINTHRWINTHR×4Attack errSummer Kohler+2.3
3617-19WINTHRWINTHR×4KillPaige Bennettset Addison Torain+2.1
3718-19WINTHRSC UPSKillSavannah Pageset Sarah O'Connor+1.5
3819-19SC UPSSC UPSAttack errPaige Bennett+2.6
3919-20SC UPSWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+2.1
4020-20WINTHRSC UPSKillSophia Spiveyset Kamyla Vega David+2.2
4120-21SC UPSWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+2.3
4220-22WINTHRWINTHRAceWinthropaced Alyssa Hook+2.8
4321-22WINTHRSC UPSKillSophia Spiveyset Kamyla Vega David+1.8
4421-23SC UPSWINTHRKillReece Rhoadsset Lexi Thatcher+2.3
4522-23WINTHRSC UPSKillSophia Spiveyset Kamyla Vega David+1.8
4622-24SC UPSWINTHRKillLaila Gloverset Lexi Thatcher+2.7
4723-24WINTHRSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Kamyla Vega David+1.6
4823-25SC UPSWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Addison Torain+3.5
Set 3
10-1SC UPSWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+0.5
20-2WINTHRWINTHRAttack errSummer Kohler+0.6
31-2WINTHRSC UPS×3Serve errWinthrop+0.5
42-2SC UPSSC UPS×3KillSophia Spiveyset Kamyla Vega David+0.7
53-2SC UPSSC UPS×3AceSophia Overholtaced Lindsay Langner+0.7
63-3SC UPSWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+0.5
73-4WINTHRWINTHRKillReece Rhoadsset Lindsay Langner+0.7
84-4WINTHRSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+0.5
94-5SC UPSWINTHRKillLexi Thatcherset Lexi Thatcher+0.5
104-6WINTHRWINTHRBad setKamyla Vega David+0.6
115-6WINTHRSC UPSKillSophia Spiveyset Kamyla Vega David+0.5
125-7SC UPSWINTHRKillLaila Gloverset Lexi Thatcher+0.5
136-7WINTHRSC UPSKillMorgan Powellset Kamyla Vega David+0.5
146-8SC UPSWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+0.5
157-8WINTHRSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Kamyla Vega David+0.5
167-9SC UPSWINTHR×3KillLaila Gloverset Lexi Thatcher+0.5
177-10WINTHRWINTHR×3KillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+0.6
187-11WINTHRWINTHR×3BlockedKamyla Vega Davidblk Paige Bennett+0.5
198-11WINTHRSC UPSKillTien Murrayset Kamyla Vega David+0.4
208-12SC UPSWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+0.4
218-13WINTHRWINTHRAttack errSophia Spivey+0.4
229-13WINTHRSC UPSKillTien Murrayset Kamyla Vega David+0.3
239-14SC UPSWINTHRKillReece Rhoadsset Lexi Thatcher+0.3
2410-14WINTHRSC UPSKillSummer Kohlerset Kamyla Vega David+0.3
2511-14SC UPSSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Kamyla Vega David+0.5
2611-15SC UPSWINTHR×3KillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+0.4
2711-16WINTHRWINTHR×3KillLaila Gloverset Lexi Thatcher+0.4
2811-17WINTHRWINTHR×3KillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+0.3
2912-17WINTHRSC UPSKillKensley Hanelineset Kamyla Vega David+0.2
3012-18SC UPSWINTHRKillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+0.2
3113-18WINTHRSC UPSAttack errPaige Bennett+0.2
3213-19SC UPSWINTHRKillLaila Gloverset Lexi Thatcher+0.2
3313-20WINTHRWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+0.2
3414-20WINTHRSC UPS×4Serve errWinthrop+0.1
3515-20SC UPSSC UPS×4BlockedLaila Gloverblk Tien Murray, Tehillah Garrison+0.2
3616-20SC UPSSC UPS×4BlockedLaila Gloverblk Tehillah Garrison, Tien Murray+0.3
3717-20SC UPSSC UPS×4Attack errPaige Bennett+0.5
3817-21SC UPSWINTHR×3Attack errTehillah Garrison+0.5
3917-22WINTHRWINTHR×3KillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+0.4
4017-23WINTHRWINTHR×3Attack errTien Murray+0.2
4118-23WINTHRSC UPSKillTehillah Garrisonset Kamyla Vega David+0.1
4218-24SC UPSWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+0.1
4319-24WINTHRSC UPSKillTien Murrayset Emma DeSensi·
4420-24SC UPSSC UPSKillSophia Spiveyset Emma DeSensi+0.1
4520-25SC UPSWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+0.1

Score shown after each rally, USC Upstate first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).