FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayGLVC

3:0

HomeSWAC

Missouri S&T def. Ark.-Pine Bluff 3–0

(27-25, 25-16, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MO S&T	27	25	25	3
ARK PB	25	16	21	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ARK PB above 50 · MO S&T below

Biggest swing: 1.4% to Ark.-Pine Bluff — set 1, MO S&T 24-25 ARK PB. Kill by Haley Reeves (set by Martyna Lubowicz). ARK PB win probability 2% → 3%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MO S&T 99.2%0.8% ARK PB

Missouri S&T wins

3-0

76.1%

3-1

19.9%

3-2

3.3%

Ark.-Pine Bluff wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.5%

MO S&T break %: 55.1% vs this opp
ARK PB break %: 36.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Haley ReevesKill+1.4%
Kill by Haley Reeves (set by Martyna Lubowicz)
Set 1 · MO S&T 24-25 ARK PB · ARK PB 2% → 3%
02
Danielle WilkeKill+1.2%
Kill by Danielle Wilke (set by Kaitlyn Brady)
Set 1 · MO S&T 25-25 ARK PB · MO S&T 97% → 98%
03
Elly DeckerKill+1.0%
Kill by Elly Decker
Set 1 · MO S&T 26-25 ARK PB · MO S&T 98% → 99%
04
Selin OzdemirKill+0.8%
Kill by Selin Ozdemir (set by Maggie Miller)
Set 1 · MO S&T 24-23 ARK PB · MO S&T 98% → 99%
05
MO S&T serverService error+0.8%
Missouri S&T service error
Set 1 · MO S&T 24-24 ARK PB · ARK PB 1% → 2%
06
Maggie MillerBad set+0.7%
Bad set by Maggie Miller
Set 1 · MO S&T 23-23 ARK PB · ARK PB 1% → 2%
07
Selin OzdemirAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Selin Ozdemir
Set 1 · MO S&T 22-22 ARK PB · ARK PB 1% → 2%
08
MO S&T serverAce+0.6%
Missouri S&T ace on Team
Set 1 · MO S&T 27-25 ARK PB · MO S&T 99% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Missouri S&Taway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
15Elly DeckerOH	3	9	5	24	.167	1	2	2	9	0	0	0	11
12Danielle WilkeOH	3	10	2	14	.571	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	11
18Selin OzdemirOH	3	10	4	30	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10
22Madison SmithMB	3	7	1	15	.400	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	8
21Kate ZipprichMB	3	5	3	13	.154	0	1	1	4	0	2	1	7
6Kaitlyn BradyS	3	1	0	3	.333	21	0	5	1	0	0	0	1
5Chelsea PlunkettL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	0	5	1	6	0	0	0	5
3Anaya RobertsOPP	3	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	3
2Adelyn WeilerL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	2	1	1	17	1	0	0	1
11Maggie MillerS	3	0	0	9	.000	13	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
4Addie SchoenbergerOH	1	0	2	7	-.286	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	19	127	.197	38	9	10	49	1	8	4	77

Ark.-Pine Bluffhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Ashanti ButlerMB	3	6	1	13	.385	1	0	0	5	0	1	2	2	8
2Haley ReevesOH	3	6	2	24	.167	0	0	0	9	1	0	3	1.5	7.5
20Kennedy AdamsMB	3	5	0	11	.455	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
5Martyna LubowiczS	3	1	1	7	.000	13	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	1
6Kinsley HooperL/DS	3	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	2	10	1	0	0	0	0
8Zuzanna ZietekOPP	2	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
14Ngozi NwosuMB	3	4	7	15	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
11Marlina AndersonOH	3	1	3	14	-.143	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
1Jnireah HenryL/DS	2	0	1	2	-.500	1	0	0	8	1	0	0	0	0
7London KingMB	2	0	0	2	.000	8	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
12Kaylen RobinsonOH	1	3	1	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
13Ava MillerS	1	0	1	1	-1.000	4	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
22Karli GloverOH	1	0	1	4	-.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
4Trinity GibbsL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		28	20	107	.075	27	1	4	46	9	1	10	6	62

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 MO S&T · ARK PB 8

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 4 MO S&TARK PB 8

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 7 MO S&TARK PB 2

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 3 MO S&TARK PB 3

Bars above the line = Ark.-Pine Bluff leads, below = Missouri S&T leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Missouri S&T

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	46%6/13
2	78%7/9	65%13/20
3	86%6/7	45%5/11
4	40%6/15	45%5/11
5	50%6/12	40%4/10
6	75%6/8	45%5/11
All	62%39/63	50%38/76

Ark.-Pine Bluff

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	33%3/9
2	50%7/14	20%2/10
3	55%6/11	22%2/9
4	50%6/12	25%2/8
5	50%6/12	60%9/15
6	50%5/10	50%6/12
All	50%38/76	38%24/63

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

139 rallies

Rally log

#	MO S&T-ARK PB	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Martyna Lubowicz		+0.1
2	1-1	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Danielle Wilke	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.1
3	2-1	MO S&T	MO S&T	Ace	MO S&T server	aced Jnireah Henry	+0.1
4	2-2	MO S&T	ARK PB	Attack err	Elly Decker		+0.1
5	3-2	ARK PB	MO S&T×3	Kill	Danielle Wilke	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.1
6	4-2	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Kill	Elly Decker	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.1
7	5-2	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.1
8	5-3	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.1
9	5-4	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Danielle Wilke		+0.1
10	6-4	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Kate Zipprich	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.1
11	7-4	MO S&T	MO S&T	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.1
12	7-5	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.1
13	8-5	ARK PB	MO S&T×3	Kill	Kate Zipprich	set Maggie Miller	+0.1
14	9-5	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Kill	Selin Ozdemir	set Addie Schoenberger	+0.1
15	10-5	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Ace	MO S&T server	aced Team	+0.1
16	10-6	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set London King	+0.0
17	11-6	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Kate Zipprich	set Maggie Miller	+0.0
18	12-6	MO S&T	MO S&T	Kill	Selin Ozdemir	set Elly Decker	+0.0
19	12-7	MO S&T	ARK PB	Serve err	MO S&T server		+0.0
20	13-7	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Selin Ozdemir	set Maggie Miller	+0.0
21	13-8	MO S&T	ARK PB	Serve err	MO S&T server		+0.0
22	14-8	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Selin Ozdemir	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.0
23	15-8	MO S&T	MO S&T	Ace	MO S&T server	aced Team	+0.0
24	15-9	MO S&T	ARK PB	Serve err	MO S&T server		+0.0
25	15-10	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Jnireah Henry	+0.0
26	16-10	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Elly Decker	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.0
27	17-10	MO S&T	MO S&T	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu	blk Danielle Wilke, Kate Zipprich	+0.0
28	17-11	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
29	18-11	ARK PB	MO S&T×4	Kill	Danielle Wilke	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.0
30	19-11	MO S&T	MO S&T×4	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.0
31	20-11	MO S&T	MO S&T×4	Kill	Elly Decker	set Adelyn Weiler	+0.0
32	21-11	MO S&T	MO S&T×4	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.0
33	21-12	MO S&T	ARK PB×8	Attack err	Addie Schoenberger		+0.0
34	21-13	ARK PB	ARK PB×8	Attack err	Elly Decker		+0.0
35	21-14	ARK PB	ARK PB×8	Attack err	Kate Zipprich		+0.0
36	21-15	ARK PB	ARK PB×8	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set London King	+0.0
37	21-16	ARK PB	ARK PB×8	Bad set	Maggie Miller		+0.0
38	21-17	ARK PB	ARK PB×8	Attack err	Elly Decker		+0.1
39	21-18	ARK PB	ARK PB×8	Attack err	Addie Schoenberger	blk Ashanti Butler, Marlina Anderson	+0.1
40	21-19	ARK PB	ARK PB×8	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set London King	+0.2
41	22-19	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Elly Decker	set Maggie Miller	+0.2
42	22-20	MO S&T	ARK PB×3	Serve err	MO S&T server		+0.2
43	22-21	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Kill	Haley Reeves	set London King	+0.4
44	22-22	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Attack err	Selin Ozdemir		+0.6
45	23-22	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Kate Zipprich	set Maggie Miller	+0.6
46	23-23	MO S&T	ARK PB	Bad set	Maggie Miller		+0.7
47	24-23	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Selin Ozdemir	set Maggie Miller	+0.8
48	24-24	MO S&T	ARK PB	Serve err	MO S&T server		+0.8
49	24-25	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Haley Reeves	set Martyna Lubowicz	+1.4
50	25-25	ARK PB	MO S&T×3	Kill	Danielle Wilke	set Kaitlyn Brady	+1.2
51	26-25	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Kill	Elly Decker		+1.0
52	27-25	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Ace	MO S&T server	aced Team	+0.6
Set 2
1	0-1	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Danielle Wilke	blk Haley Reeves, Kennedy Adams	+0.1
2	0-2	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Selin Ozdemir		+0.1
3	1-2	ARK PB	MO S&T	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.1
4	1-3	MO S&T	ARK PB	Attack err	Elly Decker		+0.1
5	2-3	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Danielle Wilke	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.1
6	2-4	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Ngozi Nwosu	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.1
7	3-4	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Elly Decker	set Adelyn Weiler	+0.1
8	3-5	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Zuzanna Zietek	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.1
9	3-6	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Marlina Anderson	set London King	+0.2
10	4-6	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Kate Zipprich	set Maggie Miller	+0.1
11	4-7	MO S&T	ARK PB	Bad set	Maggie Miller		+0.1
12	4-8	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Selin Ozdemir	blk Ashanti Butler	+0.2
13	5-8	ARK PB	MO S&T×3	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.1
14	6-8	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Attack err	Marlina Anderson		+0.1
15	7-8	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Kill	Madison Smith	set Maggie Miller	+0.1
16	7-9	MO S&T	ARK PB	Attack err	Madison Smith	blk Ashanti Butler, Haley Reeves	+0.1
17	7-10	ARK PB	ARK PB	Kill	Haley Reeves	set London King	+0.2
18	8-10	ARK PB	MO S&T×3	Kill	Selin Ozdemir	set Maggie Miller	+0.1
19	9-10	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Kill	Danielle Wilke	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.2
20	10-10	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Kill	Selin Ozdemir	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.1
21	10-11	MO S&T	ARK PB	Serve err	MO S&T server		+0.1
22	11-11	ARK PB	MO S&T×7	Attack err	Kinsley Hooper		+0.1
23	12-11	MO S&T	MO S&T×7	Attack err	Zuzanna Zietek	blk Danielle Wilke, Madison Smith	+0.1
24	13-11	MO S&T	MO S&T×7	Attack err	Jnireah Henry		+0.1
25	14-11	MO S&T	MO S&T×7	Attack err	Haley Reeves		+0.1
26	15-11	MO S&T	MO S&T×7	Ace	MO S&T server	aced Kinsley Hooper	+0.1
27	16-11	MO S&T	MO S&T×7	Ace	MO S&T server	aced Team	+0.0
28	17-11	MO S&T	MO S&T×7	Kill	Madison Smith		+0.0
29	17-12	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
30	18-12	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Elly Decker	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.0
31	18-13	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
32	19-13	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Elly Decker	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.0
33	19-14	MO S&T	ARK PB	Bad set	Anaya Roberts		+0.0
34	20-14	ARK PB	MO S&T	Attack err	Ashanti Butler		+0.0
35	21-14	MO S&T	MO S&T	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.0
36	21-15	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set London King	+0.0
37	22-15	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Selin Ozdemir	set Maggie Miller	+0.0
38	23-15	MO S&T	MO S&T	Ace	MO S&T server	aced Team	+0.0
39	23-16	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set London King	+0.0
40	24-16	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Madison Smith	set Maggie Miller	+0.0
41	25-16	MO S&T	MO S&T	Kill	Selin Ozdemir	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MO S&T	MO S&T	Kill	Selin Ozdemir		+0.0
2	1-1	MO S&T	ARK PB	Serve err	MO S&T server		+0.0
3	2-1	ARK PB	MO S&T	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.0
4	3-1	MO S&T	MO S&T	Attack err	Kaylen Robinson		+0.0
5	3-2	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Haley Reeves	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
6	4-2	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Madison Smith	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.0
7	4-3	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Kaylen Robinson	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
8	5-3	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Danielle Wilke	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.0
9	5-4	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
10	5-5	ARK PB	ARK PB	Ace	ARK PB server	aced Adelyn Weiler	+0.0
11	6-5	ARK PB	MO S&T	Attack err	Karli Glover	blk Kate Zipprich, Anaya Roberts	+0.0
12	7-5	MO S&T	MO S&T	Ace	MO S&T server	aced Team	+0.0
13	7-6	MO S&T	ARK PB×3	Attack err	Anaya Roberts		+0.0
14	7-7	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Attack err	Kate Zipprich		+0.0
15	7-8	ARK PB	ARK PB×3	Kill	Haley Reeves	set Ava Miller	+0.1
16	8-8	ARK PB	MO S&T	Attack err	Marlina Anderson		+0.0
17	9-8	MO S&T	MO S&T	Attack err	Haley Reeves	blk Madison Smith, Anaya Roberts	+0.0
18	9-9	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Ava Miller	+0.0
19	10-9	ARK PB	MO S&T×3	Attack err	Ava Miller		+0.0
20	11-9	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Kill	Madison Smith	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.0
21	12-9	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Attack err	Marlina Anderson		+0.0
22	12-10	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Haley Reeves	set Ava Miller	+0.0
23	12-11	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Selin Ozdemir		+0.0
24	13-11	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Madison Smith	set Adelyn Weiler	+0.0
25	13-12	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Kaylen Robinson	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
26	14-12	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Kaitlyn Brady	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.0
27	14-13	MO S&T	ARK PB	Serve err	MO S&T server		+0.0
28	15-13	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Danielle Wilke	set Maggie Miller	+0.0
29	16-13	MO S&T	MO S&T	Attack err	Martyna Lubowicz		+0.0
30	16-14	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Kaylen Robinson	set Ashanti Butler	+0.0
31	17-14	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Anaya Roberts	set Maggie Miller	+0.0
32	17-15	MO S&T	ARK PB	Serve err	MO S&T server		+0.0
33	17-16	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Kate Zipprich		+0.1
34	18-16	ARK PB	MO S&T	Kill	Anaya Roberts	set Maggie Miller	+0.1
35	18-17	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Ashanti Butler	set Ava Miller	+0.1
36	18-18	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Anaya Roberts	blk Haley Reeves, Kennedy Adams	+0.1
37	19-18	ARK PB	MO S&T	Serve err	ARK PB server		+0.1
38	19-19	MO S&T	ARK PB	Serve err	MO S&T server		+0.1
39	20-19	ARK PB	MO S&T×3	Kill	Madison Smith	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.1
40	21-19	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Kill	Elly Decker	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.1
41	22-19	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Kill	Danielle Wilke	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.1
42	22-20	MO S&T	ARK PB	Kill	Kennedy Adams	set Martyna Lubowicz	+0.0
43	22-21	ARK PB	ARK PB	Attack err	Elly Decker	blk Kennedy Adams, Kaylen Robinson	+0.1
44	23-21	ARK PB	MO S&T×3	Kill	Danielle Wilke	set Kaitlyn Brady	+0.1
45	24-21	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Ace	MO S&T server	aced Haley Reeves	+0.1
46	25-21	MO S&T	MO S&T×3	Attack err	Ngozi Nwosu		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Missouri S&T first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.