FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomeNEC

FDU def. Iona 3–0

(25-22, 25-23, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
IONA	22	23	20	0
FDU	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

FDU above 50 · IONA below

Biggest swing: 7.2% to FDU — set 2, IONA 23-25 FDU. Kill by Nina Jasiecka (set by Brooke Kamelchuk). FDU win probability 82% → 89%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

IONA 44.6%55.4% FDU

Iona wins

3-0

10.4%

3-1

16.5%

3-2

17.7%

FDU wins

3-0

14.9%

3-1

21.0%

3-2

19.5%

IONA break %: 44.0% vs this opp
FDU break %: 45.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Nina JasieckaKill+7.2%
Kill by Nina Jasiecka (set by Brooke Kamelchuk)
Set 2 · IONA 23-25 FDU · FDU 82% → 89%
02
Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez SanchezKill+6.4%
Kill by Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez (set by Isabella Scarfone)
Set 1 · IONA 21-22 FDU · FDU 54% → 60%
03
Jaylyn SimonAttack error+6.1%
Jaylyn Simon stuffed by Mila Samardzija & Angela Marchetto
Set 1 · IONA 21-23 FDU · FDU 60% → 66%
04
IONA serverAce+5.1%
Iona ace on Brooke Kamelchuk
Set 1 · IONA 20-19 FDU · IONA 45% → 50%
05
IONA serverAce+4.6%
Iona ace on Ava DeGuzman
Set 1 · IONA 19-19 FDU · IONA 40% → 45%
06
Katherine FerngKill+4.6%
Kill by Katherine Ferng (set by Jaylyn Simon)
Set 1 · IONA 21-20 FDU · IONA 46% → 51%
07
Mila SamardzijaKill+4.5%
Kill by Mila Samardzija (set by Nora Marginean)
Set 1 · IONA 21-21 FDU · FDU 49% → 54%
08
Mija JegersAttack error+4.5%
Mija Jegers stuffed by Angela Marchetto & Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez & Mila Samardzija
Set 1 · IONA 21-24 FDU · FDU 66% → 71%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Ionaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Julia LeonardoOH	3	13	5	31	.258	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	13
4Buse TinazMB	3	6	0	19	.316	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
15Jaylyn SimonS	3	1	1	5	.000	33	1	3	10	0	1	0.5	2.5
16Joy HoudreL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
21Mija JegersOH	2	5	5	21	.000	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	5
18Ezzie ThompsonMB	2	1	2	8	-.125	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1
14Katherine FerngOH	3	9	2	27	.259	0	0	0	5	0	2	1	10
11Kari SmithOH	3	2	1	8	.125	2	1	0	8	1	0	0	3
2Sanem BasOH	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	1	4	1	0	0	2
7Avery GaumeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
23Alex PatsosOH	2	5	3	18	.111	1	0	3	8	0	1	0.5	5.5
17Gabby TaylorMB	1	1	2	6	-.167	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
Team totals		43	21	143	.154	41	4	11	62	3	7	3.5	65

FDUhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Mila SamardzijaOH	3	12	3	33	.273	1	0	2	20	2	1	4	3	15
7Ava DeGuzmanOH	3	10	4	33	.182	1	0	1	11	1	0	0	0	10
17Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez SanchezOH	3	5	0	14	.357	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	2.5	7.5
12Alessia ZampieriMB	3	2	0	9	.222	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	4.5
16Angela MarchettoMB	3	0	3	8	-.375	2	0	0	3	0	0	7	3.5	3.5
1Isabella ScarfoneS	3	0	0	1	.000	12	2	1	4	0	0	0	0	2
4Nina JasieckaOH	3	9	1	19	.421	1	0	0	5	0	0	2	1	10
10Nora MargineanS	3	1	0	3	.333	12	0	0	11	0	0	0	0	1
23Madeline JoyceL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
19Brooke Kamelchuk	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	0
5Kayla GreenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	11	120	.233	34	3	6	64	4	2	21	12.5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 IONA · FDU 5

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 IONAFDU 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 IONAFDU 5

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 4 IONAFDU 4

Bars above the line = FDU leads, below = Iona leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Iona

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	13%1/8
2	64%7/11	46%6/13
3	64%7/11	46%6/13
4	64%7/11	42%5/12
5	60%6/10	42%5/12
6	29%5/17	33%3/9
All	53%39/73	39%26/67

FDU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%8/8	65%11/17
2	47%7/15	36%4/11
3	54%7/13	30%3/10
4	58%7/12	36%4/11
5	67%6/9	45%5/11
6	60%6/10	54%7/13
All	61%41/67	47%34/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

140 rallies

Rally log

#	IONA-FDU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	IONA	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.9
2	0-2	FDU	FDU	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.3
3	1-2	FDU	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.8
4	1-3	IONA	FDU×4	Attack err	Mija Jegers		+1.9
5	1-4	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.3
6	1-5	FDU	FDU×4	Ace	FDU server	aced Ezzie Thompson	+2.1
7	1-6	FDU	FDU×4	Bad set	Jaylyn Simon		+1.9
8	2-6	FDU	IONA	Serve err	FDU server		+1.4
9	3-6	IONA	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.0
10	3-7	IONA	FDU×3	Serve err	IONA server		+1.7
11	3-8	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Nora Marginean	+1.9
12	3-9	FDU	FDU×3	Attack err	Julia Leonardo	blk Alessia Zampieri, Nina Jasiecka	+1.7
13	4-9	FDU	IONA	Kill	Mija Jegers	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.1
14	4-10	IONA	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+1.3
15	4-11	FDU	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Nora Marginean	+1.4
16	5-11	FDU	IONA	Serve err	FDU server		+0.9
17	5-12	IONA	FDU	Serve err	IONA server		+1.1
18	6-12	FDU	IONA×3	Kill	Mija Jegers	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.8
19	7-12	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Buse Tinaz	set Kari Smith	+1.4
20	8-12	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Kari Smith	set Sanem Bas	+1.7
21	8-13	IONA	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Nora Marginean	+1.7
22	9-13	FDU	IONA	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+1.4
23	9-14	IONA	FDU	Serve err	IONA server		+1.7
24	10-14	FDU	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.4
25	11-14	IONA	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.2
26	11-15	IONA	FDU	Serve err	IONA server		+2.1
27	12-15	FDU	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Joy Houdre	+1.7
28	13-15	IONA	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.7
29	13-16	IONA	FDU×3	Serve err	IONA server		+2.5
30	13-17	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.7
31	13-18	FDU	FDU×3	Attack err	Ezzie Thompson	blk Alessia Zampieri	+2.1
32	14-18	FDU	IONA×3	Bad set	Nora Marginean		+1.3
33	15-18	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Katherine Ferng		+2.2
34	16-18	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.9
35	16-19	IONA	FDU	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Nora Marginean	+2.8
36	17-19	FDU	IONA×4	Kill	Mija Jegers	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.3
37	18-19	IONA	IONA×4	Attack err	Mila Samardzija	blk Buse Tinaz, Katherine Ferng	+3.8
38	19-19	IONA	IONA×4	Ace	IONA server	aced Ava DeGuzman	+4.6
39	20-19	IONA	IONA×4	Ace	IONA server	aced Brooke Kamelchuk	+5.1
40	20-20	IONA	FDU	Attack err	Kari Smith		+4.0
41	21-20	FDU	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+4.6
42	21-21	IONA	FDU×4	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Nora Marginean	+4.5
43	21-22	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+6.4
44	21-23	FDU	FDU×4	Attack err	Jaylyn Simon	blk Mila Samardzija, Angela Marchetto	+6.1
45	21-24	FDU	FDU×4	Attack err	Mija Jegers	blk Angela Marchetto, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez, Mila Samardzija	+4.5
46	22-24	FDU	IONA	Kill	Kari Smith	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.5
47	22-25	IONA	FDU	Serve err	IONA server		+3.3
Set 2
1	0-1	FDU	FDU	Ace	FDU server	aced Sanem Bas	+2.2
2	1-1	FDU	IONA	Kill	Buse Tinaz	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.8
3	1-2	IONA	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.8
4	2-2	FDU	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.8
5	2-3	IONA	FDU	Attack err	Ezzie Thompson		+1.9
6	3-3	FDU	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.9
7	3-4	IONA	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.9
8	4-4	FDU	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Sanem Bas	+1.9
9	4-5	IONA	FDU	Kill	Ava DeGuzman		+2.0
10	4-6	FDU	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Brooke Kamelchuk	+2.4
11	5-6	FDU	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.9
12	5-7	IONA	FDU	Attack err	Mija Jegers	blk Nina Jasiecka, Alessia Zampieri	+2.0
13	6-7	FDU	IONA	Serve err	FDU server		+1.9
14	7-7	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Angela Marchetto		+2.6
15	7-8	IONA	FDU×3	Kill	Nora Marginean	set Ava DeGuzman	+2.1
16	7-9	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.6
17	7-10	FDU	FDU×3	Attack err	Julia Leonardo	blk Angela Marchetto, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+2.5
18	8-10	FDU	IONA	Kill	Buse Tinaz	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.8
19	8-11	IONA	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.0
20	9-11	FDU	IONA×3	Serve err	FDU server		+1.9
21	10-11	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.7
22	11-11	IONA	IONA×3	Ace	IONA server	aced Mila Samardzija	+2.9
23	11-12	IONA	FDU	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.4
24	12-12	FDU	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.4
25	12-13	IONA	FDU	Attack err	Katherine Ferng		+2.5
26	13-13	FDU	IONA	Kill	Mija Jegers	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.5
27	13-14	IONA	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+2.6
28	14-14	FDU	IONA	Kill	Mija Jegers	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.6
29	14-15	IONA	FDU×5	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.7
30	14-16	FDU	FDU×5	Attack err	Mija Jegers		+3.4
31	14-17	FDU	FDU×5	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Angela Marchetto	+3.1
32	14-18	FDU	FDU×5	Attack err	Mija Jegers		+2.6
33	14-19	FDU	FDU×5	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Brooke Kamelchuk	+2.0
34	15-19	FDU	IONA	Kill	Alex Patsos	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.1
35	15-20	IONA	FDU	Serve err	IONA server		+1.6
36	16-20	FDU	IONA	Serve err	FDU server		+1.0
37	16-21	IONA	FDU	Attack err	Julia Leonardo	blk Angela Marchetto, Mila Samardzija	+1.5
38	16-22	FDU	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.1
39	17-22	FDU	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.4
40	17-23	IONA	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Angela Marchetto	+0.7
41	18-23	FDU	IONA×3	Kill	Ezzie Thompson	set Julia Leonardo	+0.3
42	19-23	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Alex Patsos	set Kari Smith	+0.7
43	20-23	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Alex Patsos	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.3
44	20-24	IONA	FDU	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.9
45	21-24	FDU	IONA×3	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+0.6
46	22-24	IONA	IONA×3	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+1.8
47	23-24	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Alex Patsos	set Jaylyn Simon	+4.0
48	23-25	IONA	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Brooke Kamelchuk	+7.2
Set 3
1	0-1	IONA	FDU×3	Serve err	IONA server		+1.1
2	0-2	FDU	FDU×3	Attack err	Julia Leonardo	blk Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez, Angela Marchetto	+1.4
3	0-3	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.4
4	1-3	FDU	IONA×3	Serve err	FDU server		+1.0
5	2-3	IONA	IONA×3	Attack err	Angela Marchetto		+1.4
6	3-3	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.5
7	3-4	IONA	FDU	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Brooke Kamelchuk	+1.2
8	4-4	FDU	IONA×3	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.2
9	5-4	IONA	IONA×3	Attack err	Mila Samardzija		+1.6
10	6-4	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.6
11	6-5	IONA	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.2
12	7-5	FDU	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Avery Gaume	+1.3
13	7-6	IONA	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+1.3
14	8-6	FDU	IONA	Attack err	Nina Jasiecka		+1.4
15	8-7	IONA	FDU×4	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Nina Jasiecka	+1.3
16	8-8	FDU	FDU×4	Attack err	Gabby Taylor		+1.7
17	8-9	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Nora Marginean	+1.7
18	8-10	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Nora Marginean	+1.7
19	9-10	FDU	IONA	Attack err	Mila Samardzija	blk Katherine Ferng, Gabby Taylor	+1.3
20	9-11	IONA	FDU×4	Attack err	Gabby Taylor	blk Mila Samardzija	+1.4
21	9-12	FDU	FDU×4	Attack err	Alex Patsos		+1.7
22	9-13	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.5
23	9-14	FDU	FDU×4	Ace	FDU server	aced Kari Smith	+1.3
24	10-14	FDU	IONA	Kill	Gabby Taylor	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.8
25	10-15	IONA	FDU	Serve err	IONA server		+1.0
26	11-15	FDU	IONA×4	Kill	Jaylyn Simon	set Alex Patsos	+0.8
27	12-15	IONA	IONA×4	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.3
28	13-15	IONA	IONA×4	Kill	Buse Tinaz	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.6
29	14-15	IONA	IONA×4	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+1.9
30	14-16	IONA	FDU	Attack err	Julia Leonardo	blk Angela Marchetto, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+1.7
31	15-16	FDU	IONA	Kill	Alex Patsos	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.6
32	15-17	IONA	FDU	Serve err	IONA server		+1.8
33	16-17	FDU	IONA	Kill	Buse Tinaz	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.7
34	17-17	IONA	IONA	Ace	IONA server	aced Mila Samardzija	+2.4
35	17-18	IONA	FDU×4	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Mila Samardzija	+2.1
36	17-19	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Alessia Zampieri		+2.6
37	17-20	FDU	FDU×4	Attack err	Katherine Ferng	blk Mila Samardzija, Alessia Zampieri	+2.3
38	17-21	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Nora Marginean	+1.8
39	18-21	FDU	IONA	Kill	Buse Tinaz	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.9
40	18-22	IONA	FDU	Serve err	IONA server		+1.4
41	19-22	FDU	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.8
42	20-22	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Angela Marchetto	blk Jaylyn Simon, Gabby Taylor, Alex Patsos	+1.7
43	20-23	IONA	FDU×3	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+2.1
44	20-24	FDU	FDU×3	Attack err	Alex Patsos	blk Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez, Angela Marchetto	+1.5
45	20-25	FDU	FDU×3	Attack err	Alex Patsos		+0.5

Score shown after each rally, Iona first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.