FinalThu, Sep 10, 2026

AwayNEC

0:3

HomeMETRO

Iona def. Central Conn. St. 3–0

(28-26, 25-20, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
C CONN	26	20	20	0
IONA	28	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

IONA above 50 · C CONN below

Biggest swing: 9.9% to Central Conn. St. — set 1, C CONN 24-23 IONA. Ezzie Thompson stuffed by Breanna Ginley & Hanley Schmidt. IONA win probability 60% → 51%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

C CONN 39.6%60.4% IONA

Central Conn. St. wins

3-0

8.6%

3-1

14.4%

3-2

16.6%

Iona wins

3-0

17.4%

3-1

23.1%

3-2

19.9%

C CONN break %: 42.4% vs this opp
IONA break %: 44.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ezzie ThompsonAttack error+9.9%
Ezzie Thompson stuffed by Breanna Ginley & Hanley Schmidt
Set 1 · C CONN 24-23 IONA · C CONN 40% → 49%
02
IONA serverAce+9.5%
Iona ace on Olivia Keckler
Set 1 · C CONN 24-25 IONA · IONA 58% → 68%
03
Reese HendersonKill+9.1%
Kill by Reese Henderson (set by Avery Gaume)
Set 1 · C CONN 26-28 IONA · IONA 68% → 77%
04
Katherine FerngKill+7.6%
Kill by Katherine Ferng (set by Kari Smith)
Set 1 · C CONN 24-24 IONA · IONA 51% → 58%
05
Olivia KecklerKill+7.2%
Kill by Olivia Keckler (set by Isabella Aviles)
Set 1 · C CONN 25-25 IONA · C CONN 32% → 40%
06
Katherine FerngKill+7.2%
Kill by Katherine Ferng (set by Jaylyn Simon)
Set 1 · C CONN 25-26 IONA · IONA 60% → 68%
07
Olivia KecklerKill+7.2%
Kill by Olivia Keckler (set by Isabella Aviles)
Set 1 · C CONN 26-26 IONA · C CONN 32% → 40%
08
Julia LeonardoKill+7.2%
Kill by Julia Leonardo (set by Jaylyn Simon)
Set 1 · C CONN 26-27 IONA · IONA 60% → 68%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Central Conn. St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Olivia KecklerOPP	3	21	5	59	.271	0	1	2	6	2	0	0	0	22
2Breanna GinleyMB	3	11	2	22	.409	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	13
11Cullen WinterMB	3	3	3	21	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
6Meg BerklandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	11	2	0	0	0	2
21Isabella Aviles	3	0	1	2	-.500	29	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	0
9Hanley SchmidtOH	2	0	3	8	-.375	0	0	1	8	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
15Madison FulgencioOH	3	2	4	21	-.095	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
1Annabelle DenommeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	1	12	0	0	0	0	1
17Danielle CaligiuriS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	1
18Adele MacerMB	2	3	1	13	.154	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
Team totals		40	19	146	.144	34	5	5	58	5	1	4	3	66

Ionahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Julia LeonardoOH	3	15	2	41	.317	1	2	1	14	3	1	0.5	17.5
14Katherine FerngOH	3	12	2	31	.323	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	13
11Kari SmithOH	3	8	6	30	.067	3	2	0	17	1	1	0.5	10.5
18Ezzie ThompsonMB	3	6	4	14	.143	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	7
4Buse TinazMB	3	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	6	3	5
15Jaylyn SimonS	3	0	0	0	–	24	0	2	6	0	0	0	0
10Reese HendersonOH	3	5	0	10	.500	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	7
6Ava RedingS	3	1	0	1	1.000	16	1	2	7	0	0	0	2
7Avery GaumeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	23	1	0	0	0
13Olivia FilipowskiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
2Sanem BasOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	15	134	.254	47	5	5	77	5	16	8	78

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 C CONN · IONA 6

Set 1

26-28

Longest run 5 C CONNIONA 6

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 C CONNIONA 5

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 5 C CONNIONA 4

Bars above the line = Iona leads, below = Central Conn. St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Central Conn. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	65%13/20
2	54%7/13	42%5/12
3	43%6/14	46%6/13
4	50%6/12	25%2/8
5	67%6/9	0%0/6
6	43%6/14	25%2/8
All	49%38/77	42%28/67

Iona

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	50%7/14
2	50%7/14	50%7/14
3	100%6/6	40%4/10
4	75%6/8	63%10/16
5	86%6/7	25%2/8
6	38%6/16	60%9/15
All	58%39/67	51%39/77

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

144 rallies

Rally log

#	C CONN-IONA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	IONA	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+1.9
2	2-0	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Annabelle Denomme	+2.5
3	3-0	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Ezzie Thompson		+2.4
4	3-1	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.7
5	3-2	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Buse Tinaz, Julia Leonardo	+2.4
6	4-2	IONA	C CONN×5	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Annabelle Denomme	+2.0
7	5-2	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+2.5
8	6-2	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+2.4
9	7-2	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+2.2
10	8-2	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+2.0
11	8-3	C CONN	IONA	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.3
12	9-3	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Annabelle Denomme	+1.5
13	9-4	C CONN	IONA	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.2
14	9-5	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Cullen Winter	blk Reese Henderson, Buse Tinaz	+1.9
15	10-5	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Isabella Aviles	+1.8
16	10-6	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Ava Reding	+1.5
17	10-7	IONA	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Ava Reding	+2.3
18	11-7	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+2.1
19	11-8	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Ezzie Thompson	set Ava Reding	+1.8
20	11-9	IONA	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.6
21	12-9	IONA	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+2.3
22	13-9	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Kari Smith		+2.8
23	14-9	C CONN	C CONN×3	Ace	C CONN server	aced Julia Leonardo	+2.4
24	14-10	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.5
25	15-10	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+1.9
26	16-10	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Ezzie Thompson		+2.0
27	16-11	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.1
28	17-11	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Isabella Aviles	+1.5
29	17-12	C CONN	IONA×3	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.0
30	17-13	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Reese Henderson	set Ava Reding	+1.8
31	17-14	IONA	IONA×3	Ace	IONA server	aced Team	+2.4
32	18-14	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+2.4
33	18-15	C CONN	IONA	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.8
34	18-16	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Olivia Keckler	blk Buse Tinaz, Kari Smith	+3.1
35	19-16	IONA	C CONN	Serve err	IONA server		+3.0
36	19-17	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Kari Smith	set Ava Reding	+2.4
37	20-17	IONA	C CONN	Attack err	Ezzie Thompson		+3.1
38	21-17	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Hanley Schmidt	+3.3
39	21-18	C CONN	IONA×6	Kill	Kari Smith	set Ava Reding	+1.6
40	21-19	IONA	IONA×6	Kill	Ezzie Thompson	set Jaylyn Simon	+3.1
41	21-20	IONA	IONA×6	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+4.4
42	21-21	IONA	IONA×6	Kill	Kari Smith	set Jaylyn Simon	+5.6
43	21-22	IONA	IONA×6	Kill	Kari Smith	set Jaylyn Simon	+6.3
44	21-23	IONA	IONA×6	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Kari Smith	+5.9
45	22-23	IONA	C CONN×3	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+3.3
46	23-23	C CONN	C CONN×3	Ace	C CONN server	aced Julia Leonardo	+7.2
47	24-23	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Ezzie Thompson	blk Breanna Ginley, Hanley Schmidt	+9.9
48	24-24	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Kari Smith	+7.6
49	24-25	IONA	IONA	Ace	IONA server	aced Olivia Keckler	+9.5
50	25-25	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+7.2
51	25-26	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+7.2
52	26-26	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+7.2
53	26-27	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+7.2
54	26-28	IONA	IONA	Kill	Reese Henderson	set Avery Gaume	+9.1
Set 2
1	0-1	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.6
2	1-1	IONA	C CONN	Attack err	Julia Leonardo		+1.6
3	1-2	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Kari Smith	+1.6
4	2-2	IONA	C CONN	Serve err	IONA server		+1.7
5	2-3	C CONN	IONA	Attack err	Olivia Keckler	blk Buse Tinaz, Reese Henderson	+1.7
6	2-4	IONA	IONA	Kill	Reese Henderson	set Ava Reding	+2.1
7	3-4	IONA	C CONN	Attack err	Kari Smith		+1.6
8	4-4	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	C CONN server	aced Avery Gaume	+2.3
9	4-5	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Ava Reding	set Julia Leonardo	+1.8
10	4-6	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Reese Henderson, Ezzie Thompson	+2.2
11	5-6	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Isabella Aviles	+1.7
12	5-7	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Kari Smith	set Ava Reding	+1.7
13	5-8	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Katherine Ferng, Ezzie Thompson	+2.2
14	6-8	IONA	C CONN	Serve err	IONA server		+1.5
15	7-8	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Adele Macer	set Annabelle Denomme	+2.3
16	7-9	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Kari Smith	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.8
17	8-9	IONA	C CONN×3	Bad set	Jaylyn Simon		+1.8
18	9-9	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+2.6
19	10-9	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Julia Leonardo		+2.7
20	10-10	C CONN	IONA×3	Kill	Kari Smith	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.1
21	10-11	IONA	IONA×3	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+2.7
22	10-12	IONA	IONA×3	Attack err	Olivia Keckler	blk Katherine Ferng, Buse Tinaz	+2.7
23	11-12	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Adele Macer	set Isabella Aviles	+2.0
24	12-12	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	C CONN server	aced Julia Leonardo	+2.9
25	12-13	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+2.3
26	12-14	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+2.9
27	13-14	IONA	C CONN	Serve err	IONA server		+2.1
28	13-15	C CONN	IONA×5	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Ava Reding	+2.3
29	13-16	IONA	IONA×5	Kill	Buse Tinaz	set Ava Reding	+2.7
30	13-17	IONA	IONA×5	Ace	IONA server	aced Meg Berkland	+2.3
31	13-18	IONA	IONA×5	Ace	IONA server	aced Meg Berkland	+1.8
32	13-19	IONA	IONA×5	Kill	Reese Henderson	set Ava Reding	+1.2
33	14-19	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+0.6
34	15-19	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Kari Smith		+1.2
35	15-20	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Ava Reding	+1.3
36	16-20	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Isabella Aviles	+0.9
37	16-21	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Ezzie Thompson	set Ava Reding	+1.3
38	16-22	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Madison Fulgencio		+0.9
39	17-22	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+0.3
40	17-23	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Ezzie Thompson	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.6
41	17-24	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Isabella Aviles		+0.3
42	18-24	IONA	C CONN×3	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+0.0
43	19-24	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Katherine Ferng		+0.1
44	20-24	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Breanna Ginley		+0.3
45	20-25	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.5
Set 3
1	1-0	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+1.0
2	2-0	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Annabelle Denomme	+1.3
3	2-1	C CONN	IONA×4	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.0
4	2-2	IONA	IONA×4	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Sanem Bas	+1.3
5	2-3	IONA	IONA×4	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.3
6	2-4	IONA	IONA×4	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.3
7	3-4	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+1.0
8	3-5	C CONN	IONA	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.0
9	4-5	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+1.0
10	4-6	C CONN	IONA×4	Kill	Kari Smith	set Ava Reding	+1.0
11	4-7	IONA	IONA×4	Attack err	Cullen Winter		+1.3
12	4-8	IONA	IONA×4	Attack err	Cullen Winter		+1.1
13	4-9	IONA	IONA×4	Attack err	Madison Fulgencio		+1.0
14	5-9	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Ava Reding	+0.7
15	5-10	C CONN	IONA	Attack err	Madison Fulgencio	blk Buse Tinaz, Reese Henderson	+0.8
16	6-10	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+0.7
17	6-11	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Ezzie Thompson	set Ava Reding	+0.8
18	7-11	IONA	C CONN×5	Serve err	IONA server		+0.7
19	8-11	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+1.1
20	9-11	C CONN	C CONN×5	Attack err	Kari Smith	blk Breanna Ginley, Adele Macer	+1.3
21	10-11	C CONN	C CONN×5	Attack err	Katherine Ferng		+1.5
22	11-11	C CONN	C CONN×5	Attack err	Kari Smith	blk Breanna Ginley	+1.6
23	11-12	C CONN	IONA×4	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.3
24	11-13	IONA	IONA×4	Attack err	Adele Macer		+1.6
25	11-14	IONA	IONA×4	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.5
26	11-15	IONA	IONA×4	Ace	IONA server	aced Olivia Keckler	+1.3
27	12-15	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Adele Macer	set Isabella Aviles	+0.8
28	12-16	C CONN	IONA	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.0
29	12-17	IONA	IONA	Kill	Buse Tinaz	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.1
30	13-17	IONA	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+0.6
31	14-17	C CONN	C CONN×3	Ace	C CONN server	aced Kari Smith	+1.1
32	15-17	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Buse Tinaz		+1.4
33	15-18	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.3
34	16-18	IONA	C CONN	Attack err	Kari Smith		+1.1
35	16-19	C CONN	IONA	Attack err	Madison Fulgencio		+1.4
36	17-19	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+1.1
37	17-20	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Reese Henderson	set Avery Gaume	+1.5
38	18-20	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+1.2
39	18-21	C CONN	IONA	Kill	Ezzie Thompson	set Ava Reding	+1.5
40	18-22	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Breanna Ginley		+1.4
41	19-22	IONA	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+0.6
42	20-22	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+1.4
43	20-23	C CONN	IONA×3	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+1.7
44	20-24	IONA	IONA×3	Attack err	Breanna Ginley		+1.2
45	20-25	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.4

Score shown after each rally, Central Conn. St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.