FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayBIG-EAST

3:0

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St. John's (NY) def. Iona 3–0

(25-17, 25-7, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STJOHN	25	25	25	3
IONA	17	7	21	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

IONA above 50 · STJOHN below

Biggest swing: 0.8% to Iona — set 1, STJOHN 3-4 IONA. Attack error by Barbara Costa dos Santos. IONA win probability 5% → 6%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STJOHN 94.7%5.3% IONA

St. John's (NY) wins

3-0

54.6%

3-1

29.9%

3-2

10.2%

Iona wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.5%

3-2

3.2%

STJOHN break %: 50.0% vs this opp
IONA break %: 37.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Barbara Costa dos SantosAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Barbara Costa dos Santos
Set 1 · STJOHN 3-4 IONA · IONA 5% → 6%
02
Katherine FerngAttack error+0.7%
Katherine Ferng stuffed by Teodora Stamenkovic
Set 1 · STJOHN 5-4 IONA · STJOHN 94% → 95%
03
Emma KocejaAttack error+0.6%
Emma Koceja stuffed by Lejla Hadžiredžepovic & Chloe' Bell
Set 1 · STJOHN 2-1 IONA · STJOHN 95% → 95%
04
Kendall WhiteKill+0.6%
Kill by Kendall White (set by Rashanny Solano Smith)
Set 1 · STJOHN 6-4 IONA · STJOHN 95% → 96%
05
Julia LeonardoKill+0.6%
Kill by Julia Leonardo (set by Jaylyn Simon)
Set 1 · STJOHN 0-1 IONA · IONA 5% → 6%
06
Lejla HadžiredžepovicKill+0.6%
Kill by Lejla Hadžiredžepovic (set by Maggie Carcillo)
Set 1 · STJOHN 4-4 IONA · STJOHN 94% → 94%
07
Julia LeonardoKill+0.5%
Kill by Julia Leonardo (set by Grace Daniels)
Set 1 · STJOHN 3-3 IONA · IONA 5% → 5%
08
Barbara Costa dos SantosAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Barbara Costa dos Santos
Set 1 · STJOHN 2-2 IONA · IONA 5% → 5%

Official NCAA box

Box score

St. John's (NY)away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Carola TesoroOH	3	21	1	31	.645	0	0	0	11	1	0	0	0	21
14Chloe' BellMB	3	7	2	13	.385	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	8
1Teodora StamenkovicMB	3	1	2	6	-.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	3.5
26Maggie CarcilloS	3	0	0	2	.000	22	3	2	5	0	0	0	0	3
6Katianna BetancurL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
10Barbara Costa dos SantosOH	2	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	1
7Lejla HadžiredžepovicOH	3	10	5	33	.152	0	1	1	3	0	0	4	2	13
2Kendall WhiteOH	3	7	3	14	.286	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
9Rashanny Solano SmithL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	2	2	15	0	0	0	0	2
12Amanda CaputiS	3	0	0	1	.000	21	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
22Kya HarrisMB	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Soheila CirelliOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
11Brooke BoylesOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33Sumaiyya HarrisMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	15	109	.303	47	6	5	52	2	1	12	7	75

Ionahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Julia LeonardoOH	3	9	4	32	.156	0	1	0	4	2	0	1	0.5	10.5
22Cassandra RohanMB	3	2	0	6	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	4
8Emma KocejaOH	3	1	4	12	-.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
15Jaylyn SimonS	3	0	0	0	–	10	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
11Kari SmithOH	2	1	2	14	-.071	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	1
4Buse TinazMB	2	0	3	7	-.429	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Katherine FerngOH	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
3Grace DanielsS	3	0	0	1	.000	11	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
7Avery GaumeL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	9	1	0	0	0	0
2Sanem BasOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
21Mija JegersOH	1	3	1	9	.222	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
18Ezzie ThompsonMB	1	1	0	3	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2
Team totals		23	16	97	.072	22	2	4	34	6	1	8	5	45

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 STJOHN · IONA 3

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 4 STJOHNIONA 3

Set 2

25-7

Longest run 6 STJOHNIONA 1

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 STJOHNIONA 3

Bars above the line = Iona leads, below = St. John's (NY) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

St. John's (NY)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	63%10/16
2	86%6/7	54%7/13
3	71%5/7	55%6/11
4	56%5/9	44%4/9
5	83%5/6	55%6/11
6	63%5/8	64%9/14
All	72%33/46	57%42/74

Iona

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	33%3/9
2	31%5/16	22%2/9
3	100%5/5	17%1/6
4	42%5/12	29%2/7
5	50%5/10	44%4/9
6	31%5/16	17%1/6
All	43%32/74	28%13/46

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

120 rallies

Rally log

#	STJOHN-IONA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.6
2	1-1	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.5
3	2-1	STJOHN	STJOHN	Attack err	Emma Koceja	blk Lejla Hadžiredžepovic, Chloe' Bell	+0.6
4	2-2	STJOHN	IONA	Attack err	Barbara Costa dos Santos		+0.5
5	3-2	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.5
6	3-3	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Grace Daniels	+0.5
7	3-4	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Barbara Costa dos Santos		+0.8
8	4-4	IONA	STJOHN×4	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.6
9	5-4	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Attack err	Katherine Ferng	blk Teodora Stamenkovic	+0.7
10	6-4	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Kendall White	set Rashanny Solano Smith	+0.6
11	7-4	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Attack err	Katherine Ferng	blk Lejla Hadžiredžepovic, Teodora Stamenkovic	+0.5
12	7-5	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Grace Daniels	+0.4
13	8-5	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Amanda Caputi	+0.4
14	8-6	STJOHN	IONA	Serve err	STJOHN server		+0.4
15	9-6	IONA	STJOHN	Serve err	IONA server		+0.4
16	9-7	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Cassandra Rohan	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.4
17	10-7	IONA	STJOHN×4	Kill	Kendall White	set Amanda Caputi	+0.4
18	11-7	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.4
19	12-7	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Ace	STJOHN server	aced Kari Smith	+0.3
20	13-7	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Ace	STJOHN server	aced Kari Smith	+0.2
21	13-8	STJOHN	IONA×3	Serve err	STJOHN server		+0.2
22	13-9	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.3
23	13-10	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.4
24	14-10	IONA	STJOHN×3	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.4
25	15-10	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Soheila Cirelli	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.4
26	16-10	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
27	16-11	STJOHN	IONA	Attack err	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic		+0.2
28	17-11	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
29	17-12	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Kari Smith	set Grace Daniels	+0.1
30	18-12	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
31	18-13	STJOHN	IONA×3	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Grace Daniels	+0.1
32	18-14	IONA	IONA×3	Attack err	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	blk Katherine Ferng, Cassandra Rohan	+0.3
33	18-15	IONA	IONA×3	Attack err	Teodora Stamenkovic		+0.5
34	19-15	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Amanda Caputi	+0.4
35	19-16	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Grace Daniels	+0.4
36	20-16	IONA	STJOHN×4	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.4
37	21-16	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Attack err	Julia Leonardo		+0.4
38	22-16	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
39	23-16	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Amanda Caputi	+0.1
40	23-17	STJOHN	IONA	Serve err	STJOHN server		+0.0
41	24-17	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Amanda Caputi	+0.0
42	25-17	STJOHN	STJOHN	Ace	STJOHN server	aced Avery Gaume	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.3
2	2-0	STJOHN	STJOHN	Attack err	Emma Koceja		+0.3
3	2-1	STJOHN	IONA	Attack err	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	blk Emma Koceja, Cassandra Rohan	+0.3
4	3-1	IONA	STJOHN	Attack err	Julia Leonardo		+0.3
5	4-1	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.3
6	4-2	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.2
7	5-2	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Rashanny Solano Smith	+0.2
8	5-3	STJOHN	IONA	Attack err	Teodora Stamenkovic		+0.2
9	6-3	IONA	STJOHN×4	Attack err	Kari Smith		+0.2
10	7-3	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Rashanny Solano Smith	+0.2
11	8-3	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Attack err	Buse Tinaz		+0.2
12	9-3	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.1
13	9-4	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Grace Daniels	+0.1
14	10-4	IONA	STJOHN×3	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Amanda Caputi	+0.1
15	11-4	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.1
16	12-4	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Ace	STJOHN server	aced Julia Leonardo	+0.1
17	12-5	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Cassandra Rohan	set Grace Daniels	+0.0
18	13-5	IONA	STJOHN×5	Kill	Kendall White	set Amanda Caputi	+0.1
19	14-5	STJOHN	STJOHN×5	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.0
20	15-5	STJOHN	STJOHN×5	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Rashanny Solano Smith	+0.0
21	16-5	STJOHN	STJOHN×5	Attack err	Kari Smith		+0.0
22	17-5	STJOHN	STJOHN×5	Bad set	Jaylyn Simon		+0.0
23	17-6	STJOHN	IONA	Serve err	STJOHN server		+0.0
24	18-6	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.0
25	19-6	STJOHN	STJOHN	Attack err	Julia Leonardo		+0.0
26	19-7	STJOHN	IONA	Attack err	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic		+0.0
27	20-7	IONA	STJOHN×6	Serve err	IONA server		+0.0
28	21-7	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Attack err	Emma Koceja	blk Teodora Stamenkovic, Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	+0.0
29	22-7	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Attack err	Emma Koceja	blk Teodora Stamenkovic, Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	+0.0
30	23-7	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Attack err	Buse Tinaz		+0.0
31	24-7	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Attack err	Buse Tinaz		+0.0
32	25-7	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Attack err	Julia Leonardo	blk Barbara Costa dos Santos	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
2	1-1	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.1
3	2-1	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.1
4	3-1	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.1
5	3-2	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Mija Jegers	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.1
6	3-3	IONA	IONA	Ace	IONA server	aced Carola Tesoro	+0.2
7	4-3	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Julia Leonardo	+0.1
8	4-4	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Emma Koceja	set Grace Daniels	+0.2
9	4-5	IONA	IONA	Ace	IONA server	aced Team	+0.2
10	5-5	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Kya Harris	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
11	6-5	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Kendall White	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
12	6-6	STJOHN	IONA×3	Kill	Ezzie Thompson	set Grace Daniels	+0.2
13	6-7	IONA	IONA×3	Attack err	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic		+0.3
14	6-8	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Mija Jegers	set Grace Daniels	+0.3
15	7-8	IONA	STJOHN×3	Kill	Kendall White	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
16	8-8	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Ace	STJOHN server	aced Mija Jegers	+0.3
17	9-8	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Kendall White	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
18	9-9	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Mija Jegers	set Grace Daniels	+0.2
19	10-9	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
20	11-9	STJOHN	STJOHN	Ace	STJOHN server	aced Julia Leonardo	+0.2
21	11-10	STJOHN	IONA	Serve err	STJOHN server		+0.2
22	11-11	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Chloe' Bell		+0.3
23	12-11	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
24	13-11	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
25	13-12	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.2
26	14-12	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
27	14-13	STJOHN	IONA	Attack err	Chloe' Bell		+0.2
28	15-13	IONA	STJOHN	Serve err	IONA server		+0.2
29	15-14	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Ezzie Thompson	+0.2
30	16-14	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
31	16-15	STJOHN	IONA	Attack err	Kendall White	blk Ezzie Thompson	+0.2
32	17-15	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Kendall White	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
33	18-15	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
34	18-16	STJOHN	IONA	Attack err	Kendall White	blk Mija Jegers, Cassandra Rohan	+0.2
35	18-17	IONA	IONA	Attack err	Carola Tesoro		+0.3
36	19-17	IONA	STJOHN×4	Serve err	IONA server		+0.3
37	20-17	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.3
38	21-17	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Attack err	Mija Jegers	blk Kendall White, Chloe' Bell	+0.2
39	22-17	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Amanda Caputi	+0.1
40	22-18	STJOHN	IONA×3	Kill	Katherine Ferng	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.0
41	22-19	IONA	IONA×3	Kill	Julia Leonardo		+0.1
42	22-20	IONA	IONA×3	Attack err	Kendall White	blk Julia Leonardo, Cassandra Rohan	+0.2
43	23-20	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
44	23-21	STJOHN	IONA	Kill	Julia Leonardo	set Jaylyn Simon	+0.1
45	24-21	IONA	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
46	25-21	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, St. John's (NY) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.