Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 24, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Fairfield def. Iona 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Fairfield 96.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 24, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Fairfield beat visiting Iona 3-1 (25-23, 16-25, 25-22, 25-18) on Sat, Oct 24, 2026. Fairfield's Mamie Krubally led with 15 kills, and Julie Dufourt added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 24

Set1234Sets
IONA232522181
FAIR251625253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Fairfield built it on runs.

Win probability never moved more than 5.0 points on one rally; Iona topped out at 20% in Set 3. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Fairfield at 97%.

IonaFairfield
  • Longest run+-1
    76

    6 straight Fairfield points in the fourth set stretched an 18–17 lead to 24–17. The set finished 25–18.

Fairfield above 50Iona belowMax swing 5.0%

IonaFairfield

Hitting
Iona .192·Fairfield .197
Aces
Iona 9·Fairfield 10
Serve err
Iona 6·Fairfield 6
Blocks
Iona 9·Fairfield 93 BS · 12 BA vs 4 BS · 10 BA
Digs
Iona 52·Fairfield 54

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Fairfield above 50 · Iona below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.0% FAIRrally 179 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.0% to Fairfield — set 3, IONA 22-23 FAIR. Kari Smith stuffed by Sophia Nagy. FAIR win probability 86% → 91%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

IONA 3.6%96.4% FAIR

Iona wins

3-0
0.4%
3-1
1.0%
3-2
2.2%

Fairfield wins

3-0
60.2%
3-1
28.1%
3-2
8.2%
IONA break %
36.9% vs this opp
FAIR break %
50.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sophia NagyBlock+5.0%

    Kari Smith stuffed by Sophia Nagy

    Set 3 · IONA 22-23 FAIR · FAIR 86% → 91%

  2. 02
    Buse TinazKill+4.8%

    Kill by Buse Tinaz (set by Jaylyn Simon)

    Set 3 · IONA 21-19 FAIR · IONA 15% → 20%

  3. 03

    Kill by Julia Leonardo (set by Jaylyn Simon)

    Set 3 · IONA 22-21 FAIR · IONA 13% → 17%

  4. 04
    Buse TinazAttack error+4.2%

    Attack error by Buse Tinaz

    Set 3 · IONA 21-21 FAIR · FAIR 83% → 87%

  5. 05

    Kill by Julia Leonardo

    Set 3 · IONA 20-19 FAIR · IONA 11% → 15%

  6. 06
    Anissa CooperAttack error+3.8%

    Attack error by Anissa Cooper

    Set 3 · IONA 22-24 FAIR · FAIR 91% → 95%

  7. 07

    Kill by Noella Migliuri (set by Katelyn Cook)

    Set 3 · IONA 22-22 FAIR · FAIR 83% → 86%

  8. 08

    Aislin Oldach stuffed by Buse Tinaz & Katherine Ferng

    Set 3 · IONA 19-19 FAIR · IONA 8% → 11%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Ionaaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
49215.4670312024416
412542.1670115200013
49428.17911111400010
44411.000000001226
44415.00000010031.55.5
4000–1721800002
47119.31600040031.58.5
4000–1810900001
4000–112110001
4000–3001130000
Team totals4520130.19240965210312988
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415431.3550002002116
410117.52910020233.513.5
46413.1540213022311
47831-.0322121510008
4317.2863140700218
4226.00031182010.53.5
42021.000800600002
37328.143211730008
32212.000000000002
3000–111420001
2000–000010000
Team totals5425147.19748106549410991

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 IONA · FAIR 6

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 4 IONAFAIR 4

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 7 IONAFAIR 2

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 5 IONAFAIR 4

Set 4

18-25

Longest run 4 IONAFAIR 6

Bars above the line = Fairfield leads, below = Iona leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Iona

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%10/20
47%7/15
2
60%9/15
29%4/14
3
62%8/13
40%6/15
4
62%8/13
56%10/18
5
44%8/18
33%4/12
6
55%6/11
53%8/15
All
54%49/90
44%39/89

Fairfield

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%10/21
47%7/15
2
77%10/13
44%8/18
3
45%9/20
47%8/17
4
62%8/13
27%3/11
5
64%7/11
53%9/17
6
55%6/11
50%6/12
All
56%50/89
46%41/90

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

179 rallies

#IONA-FAIRSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0IONAIONAAceKari Smithaced Natalie Carlin+0.5
21-1IONAFAIRServe errKari Smith+0.3
31-2FAIRFAIRKillSophia Nagy+0.4
42-2FAIRIONAKillKatherine Ferngset Jaylyn Simon+0.3
52-3IONAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+0.3
63-3FAIRIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Avery Gaume+0.4
73-4IONAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+0.3
84-4FAIRIONA×3KillAnissa Cooperset Grace Daniels+0.4
95-4IONAIONA×3Attack errHarlan Wyche+0.6
106-4IONAIONA×3Attack errEmma Bortolotti+0.7
116-5IONAFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Noella Migliuri+0.5
127-5FAIRIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+0.6
137-6IONAFAIR×3Attack errKari Smith+0.5
147-7FAIRFAIR×3KillSophia Nagyset Noella Migliuri+0.6
157-8FAIRFAIR×3AceFairfieldaced Kari Smith+0.5
168-8FAIRIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+0.5
179-8IONAIONAKillKari Smithset Jaylyn Simon+0.7
189-9IONAFAIR×4KillNoella Migliuriset Julie Dufourt+0.5
199-10FAIRFAIR×4Attack errKatherine Ferng+0.6
209-11FAIRFAIR×4AceFairfieldaced Avery Gaume+0.5
219-12FAIRFAIR×4AceFairfieldaced Sanem Bas+0.4
2210-12FAIRIONAKillKari Smithset Jaylyn Simon+0.3
2310-13IONAFAIRKillSophia Nagyset Zofia Sykut+0.3
2411-13FAIRIONAKillBuse Tinazset Jaylyn Simon+0.3
2511-14IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.3
2612-14FAIRIONAAttack errMamie Krubally+0.3
2712-15IONAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+0.3
2813-15FAIRIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Grace Daniels+0.4
2913-16IONAFAIR×3KillHarlan Wycheset Noella Migliuri+0.4
3013-17FAIRFAIR×3Attack errKari Smith+0.4
3113-18FAIRFAIR×3KillEmma Bortolottiset Noella Migliuri+0.2
3214-18FAIRIONABad setNoella Migliuri+0.2
3314-19IONAFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Noella Migliuri+0.2
3414-20FAIRFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Noella Migliuri+0.1
3515-20FAIRIONA×3Serve errHarlan Wyche+0.1
3616-20IONAIONA×3Attack errEmma Bortolotti+0.2
3717-20IONAIONA×3AceIonaaced Julie Dufourt+0.3
3817-21IONAFAIRKillSophia Nagyset Noella Migliuri+0.3
3918-21FAIRIONAKillBuse Tinazset Jaylyn Simon+0.2
4018-22IONAFAIRKillSophia Nagyset Zofia Sykut+0.3
4119-22FAIRIONAAttack errJulie Dufourt+0.2
4219-23IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.3
4319-24FAIRFAIRAttack errKatherine Ferng+0.2
4420-24FAIRIONA×4KillKatherine Ferngset Jaylyn Simon·
4521-24IONAIONA×4Attack errJulie Dufourt+0.1
4622-24IONAIONA×4AceIonaaced Katelyn Cook+0.3
4723-24IONAIONA×4Attack errMamie Krubally+0.8
4823-25IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+1.3
Set 2
11-0FAIRIONAKillBuse Tinazset Jaylyn Simon+0.2
22-0IONAIONAAceBuse Tinazaced Natalie Carlin+0.4
32-1IONAFAIRBlockedKatherine Ferngblk Katelyn Cook, Sophia Nagy+0.2
43-1FAIRIONAKillAnissa Cooperset Jaylyn Simon+0.3
54-1IONAIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Grace Daniels+0.4
64-2IONAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Sophia Nagy+0.3
74-3FAIRFAIRBlockedAnissa Cooperblk Harlan Wyche+0.3
85-3FAIRIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+0.3
96-3IONAIONAKillEmma Koceja+0.5
106-4IONAFAIRServe errJulia Leonardo+0.3
116-5FAIRFAIRKillHarlan Wyche+0.4
127-5FAIRIONA×4Attack errKatelyn Cook+0.4
138-5IONAIONA×4AceSanem Basaced Katelyn Cook+0.5
149-5IONAIONA×4KillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+0.6
1510-5IONAIONA×4KillKari Smithset Sanem Bas+0.6
1610-6IONAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+0.4
1710-7FAIRFAIRKillKatelyn Cookset Zofia Sykut+0.5
1811-7FAIRIONAAttack errKatelyn Cook+0.5
1911-8IONAFAIRBlockedJulia Leonardoblk Harlan Wyche+0.4
2011-9FAIRFAIRAceHarlan Wycheaced Kari Smith+0.5
2112-9FAIRIONAKillKari Smithset Jaylyn Simon+0.5
2212-10IONAFAIRKillZofia Sykutset Julie Dufourt+0.4
2313-10FAIRIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+0.5
2414-10IONAIONAKillKatherine Ferng+0.7
2514-11IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.4
2614-12FAIRFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Katelyn Cook+0.6
2715-12FAIRIONABlockedJulie Dufourtblk Katherine Ferng, Anissa Cooper+0.6
2816-12IONAIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Grace Daniels+0.8
2916-13IONAFAIRBlockedJulia Leonardoblk Mamie Krubally, Sophia Nagy+0.4
3016-14FAIRFAIRAceNatalie Carlinaced Kari Smith+0.6
3117-14FAIRIONA×7KillAnissa Cooperset Grace Daniels+0.7
3218-14IONAIONA×7Attack errMamie Krubally+0.8
3319-14IONAIONA×7Attack errJulie Dufourt+0.8
3420-14IONAIONA×7KillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+0.6
3521-14IONAIONA×7BlockedJulie Dufourtblk Anissa Cooper, Emma Koceja+0.5
3622-14IONAIONA×7AceJulia Leonardoaced Daniella Suarez+0.3
3723-14IONAIONA×7KillKari Smithset Avery Gaume+0.1
3823-15IONAFAIRKillKatelyn Cookset Zofia Sykut·
3924-15FAIRIONAKillKari Smithset Grace Daniels+0.1
4024-16IONAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Natalie Carlin·
4125-16FAIRIONAKillKari Smithset Grace Daniels·
Set 3
10-1IONAFAIR×4KillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+0.7
20-2FAIRFAIR×4BlockedJulia Leonardoblk Zofia Sykut, Sophia Nagy+0.8
30-3FAIRFAIR×4AceKatelyn Cookaced Julia Leonardo+0.7
40-4FAIRFAIR×4KillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.6
51-4FAIRIONAServe errKatelyn Cook+0.5
61-5IONAFAIRKillSophia Nagyset Zofia Sykut+0.4
72-5FAIRIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+0.5
82-6IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Katelyn Cook+0.5
92-7FAIRFAIRKillSophia Nagy+0.5
103-7FAIRIONABad setZofia Sykut+0.4
113-8IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.4
123-9FAIRFAIRBad setGrace Daniels+0.4
134-9FAIRIONABlockedHarlan Wycheblk Anissa Cooper+0.3
144-10IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.3
155-10FAIRIONA×3BlockedJulie Dufourtblk Emma Koceja, Buse Tinaz+0.3
166-10IONAIONA×3AceJaylyn Simonaced Aislin Oldach+0.5
177-10IONAIONA×3BlockedHarlan Wycheblk Buse Tinaz+0.7
187-11IONAFAIRBlockedKari Smithblk Zofia Sykut, Harlan Wyche+0.5
198-11FAIRIONA×3KillBuse Tinazset Jaylyn Simon+0.6
209-11IONAIONA×3Attack errAislin Oldach+1.0
2110-11IONAIONA×3Attack errHarlan Wyche+1.3
2210-12IONAFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+1.0
2310-13FAIRFAIRAttack errJulia Leonardo+1.1
2411-13FAIRIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+0.9
2511-14IONAFAIRAttack errKatherine Ferng+0.9
2612-14FAIRIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+0.9
2712-15IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.9
2813-15FAIRIONAKillAnissa Cooperset Grace Daniels+0.9
2913-16IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.9
3014-16FAIRIONAServe errFairfield+1.0
3115-16IONAIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+1.7
3215-17IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+1.4
3315-18FAIRFAIRKillZofia Sykutset Aislin Oldach+1.4
3416-18FAIRIONABlockedJulie Dufourtblk Buse Tinaz, Emma Koceja+1.0
3516-19IONAFAIRServe errJaylyn Simon+1.1
3617-19FAIRIONA×5Serve errFairfield+1.1
3718-19IONAIONA×5KillKatherine Ferngset Kari Smith+2.1
3819-19IONAIONA×5BlockedAislin Oldachblk Buse Tinaz, Katherine Ferng+3.0
3920-19IONAIONA×5KillJulia Leonardo+4.0
4021-19IONAIONA×5KillBuse Tinazset Jaylyn Simon+4.8
4121-20IONAFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Noella Migliuri+2.9
4221-21FAIRFAIRAttack errBuse Tinaz+4.2
4322-21FAIRIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+4.3
4422-22IONAFAIR×4KillNoella Migliuriset Katelyn Cook+3.7
4522-23FAIRFAIR×4BlockedKari Smithblk Sophia Nagy+5.0
4622-24FAIRFAIR×4Attack errAnissa Cooper+3.8
4722-25FAIRFAIR×4AceZofia Sykutaced Avery Gaume+1.7
Set 4
10-1FAIRFAIR×4Attack errBuse Tinaz+0.7
20-2FAIRFAIR×4KillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+0.6
30-3FAIRFAIR×4BlockedJulia Leonardoblk Mamie Krubally, Harlan Wyche+0.5
40-4FAIRFAIR×4AceZofia Sykutaced Avery Gaume+0.4
51-4FAIRIONAAttack errZofia Sykut+0.3
61-5IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.3
71-6FAIRFAIRAceAislin Oldachaced Kari Smith+0.3
82-6FAIRIONAServe errAislin Oldach+0.2
92-7IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.2
102-8FAIRFAIRKillSophia Nagy+0.2
113-8FAIRIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Avery Gaume+0.2
123-9IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.2
133-10FAIRFAIRAttack errAnissa Cooper+0.2
144-10FAIRIONAKillKari Smithset Grace Daniels+0.1
154-11IONAFAIRServe errSanem Bas+0.1
165-11FAIRIONA×4KillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+0.1
176-11IONAIONA×4BlockedSophia Nagyblk Buse Tinaz+0.2
187-11IONAIONA×4KillKari Smithset Jaylyn Simon+0.3
198-11IONAIONA×4BlockedAislin Oldachblk Buse Tinaz, Katherine Ferng+0.5
208-12IONAFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.4
218-13FAIRFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+0.4
229-13FAIRIONAAttack errJulie Dufourt+0.3
239-14IONAFAIRKillZofia Sykutset Aislin Oldach+0.3
2410-14FAIRIONA×3KillBuse Tinazset Jaylyn Simon+0.3
2511-14IONAIONA×3AceBuse Tinazaced Aislin Oldach+0.5
2612-14IONAIONA×3AceBuse Tinazaced Aislin Oldach+0.8
2712-15IONAFAIRServe errBuse Tinaz+0.6
2813-15FAIRIONAAttack errMamie Krubally+0.6
2914-15IONAIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Grace Daniels+1.1
3014-16IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.9
3114-17FAIRFAIRAttack errAnissa Cooper+0.9
3215-17FAIRIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Grace Daniels+0.7
3316-17IONAIONABad setZofia Sykut+1.3
3416-18IONAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+1.0
3517-18FAIRIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+1.1
3617-19IONAFAIR×6Serve errSanem Bas+1.1
3717-20FAIRFAIR×6BlockedEmma Kocejablk Sophia Nagy+1.1
3817-21FAIRFAIR×6KillSophia Nagyset Grace Daniels+0.7
3917-22FAIRFAIR×6KillSophia Nagyset Zofia Sykut+0.4
4017-23FAIRFAIR×6KillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.2
4117-24FAIRFAIR×6AceJulie Dufourtaced Julia Leonardo+0.1
4218-24FAIRIONAServe errJulie Dufourt·
4318-25IONAFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut·

Score shown after each rally, Iona first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).