Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 31, 2026Watch on Iona Insider

Marist def. Iona 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Marist 80.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 31, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Marist won at Iona 3-1 (25-12, 22-25, 25-19, 25-22) on Sat, Oct 31, 2026. Molly Malone and Sarah Bumstead led Marist with 12 kills each; Iona's Julia Leonardo had a match-high 16.

Data through · final Oct 31

Set1234Sets
MARIST252225253
IONA122519221

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Marist won 51 of 96 points on its own serve.

No single rally moved win probability more than 5.8 points. Iona peaked at 25% in Set 2. These are the stats that built the gap. Marist went in as RallyIQ's 81% pick.

MaristIona
  • Break %+11.3 pts
    53.141.8

    Points won on own serve: 51 of 96 vs 33 of 79. Iona sided out 46.9% of the time.

  • Longest run+0
    66

    Up 11–6 in the first set, Marist scored 6 straight to make it 17–6. The set finished 25–12.

Iona above 50Marist belowMax swing 5.8%

MaristIona

Hitting
Marist .200·Iona .152
Aces
Marist 11·Iona 7
Serve err
Marist 2·Iona 5
Blocks
Marist 6·Iona 91 BS · 10 BA vs 0 BS · 18 BA
Digs
Marist 95·Iona 87

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Iona above 50 · Marist below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.8% MARISTrally 175 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.8% to Marist — set 4, MARIST 24-22 IONA. Attack error by Kari Smith. IONA win probability 9% → 3%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MARIST 81.3%18.7% IONA

Marist wins

3-0
32.9%
3-1
30.6%
3-2
17.9%

Iona wins

3-0
3.0%
3-1
6.2%
3-2
9.6%
MARIST break %
47.8% vs this opp
IONA break %
40.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kari SmithAttack error+5.8%

    Attack error by Kari Smith

    Set 4 · MARIST 24-22 IONA · MARIST 91% → 97%

  2. 02

    Kill by Julia Leonardo (set by Jaylyn Simon)

    Set 4 · MARIST 22-22 IONA · IONA 8% → 14%

  3. 03
    Sara DasicKill+5.2%

    Kill by Sara Dasic (set by Caelyn Dumas)

    Set 4 · MARIST 23-22 IONA · MARIST 86% → 91%

  4. 04
    IonaAce+3.7%

    Iona ace on Cecilia Potter-Pessoa

    Set 4 · MARIST 22-21 IONA · IONA 5% → 8%

  5. 05

    Kill by Julia Leonardo (set by Grace Daniels)

    Set 2 · MARIST 20-22 IONA · IONA 15% → 19%

  6. 06
    Mallory ReckAttack error+3.4%

    Attack error by Mallory Reck

    Set 2 · MARIST 20-21 IONA · IONA 12% → 15%

  7. 07
    IonaAce+3.2%

    Iona ace on Claudia Kasperski

    Set 2 · MARIST 20-23 IONA · IONA 19% → 22%

  8. 08

    Julia Leonardo stuffed by Caelyn Dumas & Sarah Bumstead

    Set 4 · MARIST 25-22 IONA · MARIST 97% → 100%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Maristaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412121.52420040031.513.5
410652.07712026002113
412123.4780000002113
49535.114030181010.512.5
41013.0774421210111.54.5
4000–2201130002
47128.21400020010.57.5
4000–021100002
4001.0003001030000
2125-.200000100001
1203.667000100002
1002.000000000000
1012-.500000000000
Team totals5417185.20052112957110697
Ionahome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416243.32601117600017
410421.28600030031.511.5
49848.02132215200011
47434.08800050052.59.5
4000–23111100001
1000–000100211
44321.048000300426
4000–030000003
4013-.33320011000000
4001.0002002210000
35113.308000000427
Team totals5123184.15248758711018978

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Marist vs Iona

Season series · Marist leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 MARIST · IONA 6

Set 1

25-12

Longest run 6 MARISTIONA 2

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 MARISTIONA 5

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 MARISTIONA 5

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 4 MARISTIONA 6

Bars above the line = Iona leads, below = Marist leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Marist

SlotSideout %Break %
1
64%7/11
29%2/7
2
67%6/9
46%6/13
3
86%6/7
45%5/11
4
60%6/10
63%10/16
5
45%5/11
55%6/11
6
42%5/12
62%8/13
All
58%35/60
52%37/71

Iona

SlotSideout %Break %
1
70%7/10
40%4/10
2
55%6/11
25%2/8
3
38%6/16
25%2/8
4
43%6/14
33%3/9
5
56%5/9
54%7/13
6
36%4/11
58%7/12
All
48%34/71
42%25/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

175 rallies

#MARIST-IONASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MARISTIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+1.4
21-1IONAMARIST×3Serve errJulia Leonardo+1.3
32-1MARISTMARIST×3KillMallory Reckset Claudia Kasperski+1.6
43-1MARISTMARIST×3KillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+1.5
53-2MARISTIONABlockedMallory Reckblk Emma Koceja, Buse Tinaz+1.2
64-2IONAMARIST×3KillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+1.2
75-2MARISTMARIST×3Attack errKari Smith+1.3
86-2MARISTMARIST×3KillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+1.2
96-3MARISTIONAKillKari Smithset Grace Daniels+0.9
107-3IONAMARIST×4KillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.9
118-3MARISTMARIST×4AceMaristaced Kari Smith+1.0
129-3MARISTMARIST×4KillTrinity Woodsset Molly Malone+0.8
1310-3MARISTMARIST×4Attack errKari Smith+0.6
1410-4MARISTIONAKillKari Smithset Jaylyn Simon+0.4
1510-5IONAIONAKillKatherine Ferngset Avery Gaume+0.7
1611-5IONAMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.6
1711-6MARISTIONAKillKatherine Ferngset Jaylyn Simon+0.5
1812-6IONAMARIST×6Attack errKatherine Ferng+0.6
1913-6MARISTMARIST×6KillSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas+0.6
2014-6MARISTMARIST×6KillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.4
2115-6MARISTMARIST×6AceMarist+0.3
2216-6MARISTMARIST×6KillSarah Bumstead+0.2
2317-6MARISTMARIST×6AceMaristaced Julia Leonardo+0.1
2417-7MARISTIONAKillBuse Tinazset Jaylyn Simon·
2518-7IONAMARISTKillSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas+0.1
2618-8MARISTIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels·
2719-8IONAMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas·
2820-8MARISTMARISTAceMaristaced Avery Gaume·
2920-9MARISTIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels·
3020-10IONAIONABlockedMallory Reckblk Emma Koceja, Anissa Cooper·
3121-10IONAMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas·
3222-10MARISTMARISTKillEleana Kouteset Mallory Reck·
3322-11MARISTIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels·
3423-11IONAMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas·
3523-12MARISTIONABlockedHeidi Chambersblk Anissa Cooper, Katherine Ferng·
3624-12IONAMARISTKillHeidi Chambersset Caelyn Dumas·
3725-12MARISTMARISTKillEleana Kouteset Caelyn Dumas·
Set 2
11-0IONAMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.9
21-1MARISTIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+1.0
32-1IONAMARISTAttack errEmma Koceja+0.9
42-2MARISTIONABlockedMallory Reckblk Emma Koceja, Buse Tinaz+1.0
53-2IONAMARIST×3KillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
64-2MARISTMARIST×3AceMaristaced Julia Leonardo+1.1
75-2MARISTMARIST×3KillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
85-3MARISTIONA×4KillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+0.8
95-4IONAIONA×4BlockedSara Dasicblk Katherine Ferng, Ezzie Thompson+1.2
105-5IONAIONA×4KillEzzie Thompson+1.3
115-6IONAIONA×4KillKari Smith+1.5
126-6IONAMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+1.1
137-6MARISTMARISTKillSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas+1.4
147-7MARISTIONAKillEzzie Thompsonset Jaylyn Simon+1.1
157-8IONAIONAKillEzzie Thompson+1.6
168-8IONAMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.2
178-9MARISTIONA×4Attack errMallory Reck+1.3
188-10IONAIONA×4AceIonaaced Claudia Kasperski+1.8
198-11IONAIONA×4Attack errSara Dasic+1.9
208-12IONAIONA×4AceIonaaced Claudia Kasperski+1.8
219-12IONAMARISTAttack errKari Smith+1.2
229-13MARISTIONAKillKatherine Ferngset Kari Smith+1.5
2310-13IONAMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.2
2410-14MARISTIONAServe errKaitlyn Owens+1.6
2510-15IONAIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Grace Daniels+1.8
2611-15IONAMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
2712-15MARISTMARISTAttack errKari Smith+1.6
2812-16MARISTIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+1.6
2913-16IONAMARISTBad setBuse Tinaz+1.3
3013-17MARISTIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+1.7
3114-17IONAMARIST×3KillSara Dasicset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+1.3
3215-17MARISTMARIST×3Bad setJaylyn Simon+1.9
3316-17MARISTMARIST×3Bad setKari Smith+2.2
3416-18MARISTIONAKillKari Smithset Jaylyn Simon+2.1
3517-18IONAMARIST×3Serve errKari Smith+1.8
3618-18MARISTMARIST×3Attack errKatherine Ferng+2.5
3719-18MARISTMARIST×3KillSara Dasicset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+2.5
3819-19MARISTIONABlockedSara Dasicblk Ezzie Thompson, Katherine Ferng+2.0
3920-19IONAMARISTAttack errBuse Tinaz+2.1
4020-20MARISTIONA×5KillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+2.2
4120-21IONAIONA×5Attack errMallory Reck+3.4
4220-22IONAIONA×5KillJulia Leonardoset Grace Daniels+3.6
4320-23IONAIONA×5AceIonaaced Claudia Kasperski+3.2
4420-24IONAIONA×5KillJulia Leonardoset Kari Smith+2.1
4521-24IONAMARISTServe errGrace Daniels+0.5
4622-24MARISTMARISTAceMaristaced Kari Smith+1.4
4722-25MARISTIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+2.6
Set 3
11-0MARISTMARISTAceMaristaced Julia Leonardo+2.4
22-0MARISTMARISTAttack errBuse Tinaz+2.2
32-1IONA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.8
43-1IONAMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.8
54-1MARISTMARISTKillMallory Reckset Claudia Kasperski+2.0
64-2MARISTIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+1.6
74-3IONAIONAKillKari Smithset Grace Daniels+2.4
85-3IONAMARISTAttack errEmma Koceja+1.9
95-4MARISTIONAKillKari Smithset Grace Daniels+1.9
106-4IONAMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+1.9
117-4MARISTMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+2.2
127-5MARISTIONAKillKari Smithset Jaylyn Simon+1.7
138-5IONAMARIST×3KillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+1.8
149-5MARISTMARIST×3BlockedKatherine Ferngblk Sarah Bumstead, Sara Dasic+1.9
1510-5MARISTMARIST×3KillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.6
1610-6MARISTIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+1.1
1711-6IONAMARISTKillSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas+1.3
1811-7MARISTIONAKillKatherine Ferngset Jaylyn Simon+1.1
1912-7IONAMARIST×4Attack errBuse Tinaz+1.3
2013-7MARISTMARIST×4AceMaristaced Julia Leonardo+1.3
2114-7MARISTMARIST×4KillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.9
2215-7MARISTMARIST×4AceMaristaced Julia Leonardo+0.6
2315-8MARISTIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+0.4
2416-8IONAMARISTKillMallory Reckset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+0.5
2516-9MARISTIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+0.3
2616-10IONAIONAKillKari Smithset Grace Daniels+0.6
2717-10IONAMARIST×4BlockedEmma Kocejablk Mallory Reck+0.7
2818-10MARISTMARIST×4AceMaristaced Julia Leonardo+0.5
2919-10MARISTMARIST×4BlockedEmma Kocejablk Molly Malone, Mallory Reck+0.3
3020-10MARISTMARIST×4KillKari Smithset Caelyn Dumas+0.1
3120-11MARISTIONAServe errCaelyn Dumas+0.1
3220-12IONAIONAAttack errMolly Malone+0.1
3321-12IONAMARIST×3KillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+0.2
3422-12MARISTMARIST×3KillTrinity Woods+0.1
3523-12MARISTMARIST×3Attack errKari Smith·
3623-13IONA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
3723-14IONAIONA×5AceIonaaced Cecilia Potter-Pessoa·
3823-15IONAIONA×5Attack errHeidi Chambers·
3923-16IONAIONA×5KillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+0.1
4023-17IONAIONA×5AceIonaaced Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+0.1
4124-17IONAMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.2
4224-18MARISTIONAAttack errSarah Bumstead·
4324-19IONAIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+0.1
4425-19IONAMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.2
Set 4
11-0IONAMARISTAttack errJulia Leonardo+1.5
21-1MARISTIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+1.6
32-1IONAMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+1.5
43-1MARISTMARISTAceMarist+1.8
53-2MARISTIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+1.5
64-2IONAMARIST×4KillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+1.4
75-2MARISTMARIST×4KillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+1.7
86-2MARISTMARIST×4Attack errEzzie Thompson+1.4
97-2MARISTMARIST×4Bad setGrace Daniels+1.2
107-3MARISTIONAAttack errCaelyn Dumas+0.9
118-3IONAMARISTKillSara Dasic+1.0
129-3MARISTMARISTAttack errJaylyn Simon+1.0
139-4MARISTIONABad setCecilia Potter-Pessoa+0.7
1410-4IONAMARISTServe errJaylyn Simon+0.8
1510-5MARISTIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+0.7
1610-6IONAIONAAttack errSara Dasic+1.1
1711-6IONAMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
1811-7MARISTIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+0.9
1912-7IONAMARIST×3KillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
2013-7MARISTMARIST×3Attack errBuse Tinaz+1.0
2114-7MARISTMARIST×3KillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+0.7
2214-8MARISTIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Grace Daniels+0.4
2314-9IONAIONAAceIonaaced Sara Dasic+0.8
2415-9IONAMARISTKillCaelyn Dumasset Molly Malone+0.8
2515-10MARISTIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+0.6
2615-11IONAIONABlockedMallory Reckblk Emma Koceja, Ezzie Thompson+1.1
2716-11IONAMARIST×3BlockedKari Smithblk Trinity Woods, Molly Malone+1.1
2817-11MARISTMARIST×3KillTrinity Woodsset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+1.0
2918-11MARISTMARIST×3KillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.6
3018-12MARISTIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+0.3
3119-12IONAMARISTServe errKari Smith+0.5
3220-12MARISTMARISTKillSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas+0.3
3320-13MARISTIONA×6KillKari Smithset Jaylyn Simon+0.1
3420-14IONAIONA×6BlockedSavannah Smithblk Ezzie Thompson, Emma Koceja+0.3
3520-15IONAIONA×6KillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+0.5
3620-16IONAIONA×6KillJulia Leonardoset Avery Gaume+0.9
3720-17IONAIONA×6KillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+1.5
3820-18IONAIONA×6KillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+2.3
3921-18IONAMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+2.3
4022-18MARISTMARISTAttack errKari Smith+2.0
4122-19MARISTIONA×4KillEzzie Thompsonset Jaylyn Simon+1.0
4222-20IONAIONA×4BlockedSara Dasicblk Katherine Ferng, Buse Tinaz+2.2
4322-21IONAIONA×4AceIonaaced Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+3.7
4422-22IONAIONA×4KillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+5.6
4523-22IONAMARIST×3KillSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas+5.2
4624-22MARISTMARIST×3Attack errKari Smith+5.8
4725-22MARISTMARIST×3BlockedJulia Leonardoblk Caelyn Dumas, Sarah Bumstead+3.0

Score shown after each rally, Marist first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).