Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on ESPN+

TCU def. Baylor 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Baylor 61.2% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 6:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

TCU won at Baylor 3-2 (27-25, 21-25, 25-21, 15-25, 15-8) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Becca Kelley led TCU with 20 kills; Baylor's Ksenia Rakhmanchik had a match-high 23.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set12345Sets
TCU27212515153
BAYLOR2525212582

Match story · from the official box score

Five sets, 20 kills for Becca Kelley, and a TCU win.

Told from the official box score only: NCAA’s play-by-play for this match doesn’t reproduce the official result, so there’s no win-probability story. Pre-match, Baylor was RallyIQ's 61% pick.

The gap was spread thin: nothing reached the thresholds on its own.

TCUBaylor

Hitting
TCU .224·Baylor .172
Aces
TCU 3·Baylor 7
Serve err
TCU 10·Baylor 8
Blocks
TCU 12·Baylor 11.52 BS · 20 BA vs 1 BS · 21 BA
Digs
TCU 60·Baylor 65

Win probability

Baylor above 50 · TCU below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+10.8% TCUrally 206 · set 5

Biggest swing: 10.8% to TCU — set 1, TCU 27-25 BAYLOR. Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Jalyn Gibson). BAYLOR win probability 52% → 41%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TCU 39.1%60.9% BAYLOR

TCU wins

3-0
8.5%
3-1
14.2%
3-2
16.4%

Baylor wins

3-0
17.7%
3-1
23.3%
3-2
20.0%
TCU break %
37.6% vs this opp
BAYLOR break %
39.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Becca KelleyKill+10.8%

    Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Jalyn Gibson)

    Set 1 · TCU 27-25 BAYLOR · TCU 48% → 59%

  2. 02
    Becca KelleyKill+10.2%

    Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Rosemary Archer)

    Set 1 · TCU 26-25 BAYLOR · TCU 38% → 48%

  3. 03

    Kill by Ksenia Rakhmanchik

    Set 1 · TCU 24-25 BAYLOR · BAYLOR 58% → 68%

  4. 04
    Evan HendrixKill+9.7%

    Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Rosemary Archer)

    Set 5 · TCU 2-0 BAYLOR · TCU 53% → 63%

  5. 05
    Evan HendrixKill+9.6%

    Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Alice Volpe)

    Set 5 · TCU 4-1 BAYLOR · TCU 63% → 73%

  6. 06
    Mya HemmerAttack error+9.6%

    Attack error by Mya Hemmer

    Set 5 · TCU 1-0 BAYLOR · TCU 43% → 53%

  7. 07
    Bailey WarrenAttack error+9.0%

    Attack error by Bailey Warren

    Set 5 · TCU 10-6 BAYLOR · TCU 80% → 89%

  8. 08

    Grace Carroll stuffed by Becca Kelley & De'Andrea McMillian

    Set 3 · TCU 24-21 BAYLOR · TCU 60% → 68%

Box score

Official NCAA box

TCUaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
520755.23611251132.523.5
517645.244112121010.518.5
56519.053202530428
55212.25000000132.57.5
5126-.16700020073.54.5
5002.0003113130010.51.5
5709.778300400007
5001.0006011520000
5000–000000000
4000–900200000
3000–000100000
2003.00000000010.50.5
2000–100100000
Team totals5622152.2245431060722012103
Baylorhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
523966.21201014004226
55515.00000010073.58.5
5316.33347121000215
52021.0000221020004
4419.333000001226
32315-.067000200213
5141037.1080003000014
54212.16700010031.55.5
5000–4211100002
5000–3111210001
5000–102100000
4527.42900000010.55.5
Team totals6233169.172557865312111.5104

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

TCU vs Baylor

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 TCU · BAYLOR 5

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 4 TCUBAYLOR 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 6 TCUBAYLOR 5

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 6 TCUBAYLOR 4

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 2 TCUBAYLOR 4

Set 5

15-8

Longest run 3 TCUBAYLOR 2

Bars above the line = Baylor leads, below = TCU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

TCU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%9/18
23%3/13
2
67%8/12
56%10/18
3
53%8/15
20%2/10
4
70%7/10
36%4/11
5
54%7/13
22%2/9
6
50%7/14
61%11/18
All
56%46/82
41%32/79

Baylor

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
58%11/19
2
62%8/13
31%4/13
3
70%7/10
43%6/14
4
78%7/9
46%6/13
5
58%7/12
36%4/11
6
47%7/15
42%5/12
All
59%47/79
44%36/82

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

206 rallies

#TCU-BAYLORSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.6
21-1BAYLORTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+1.6
32-1TCUTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Alice Volpe+2.7
42-2TCUBAYLORServe errTCU+1.6
53-2BAYLORTCUAttack errVictoria Davis+1.7
63-3TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.7
73-4BAYLORBAYLORBlockedKinsley Youngblk Ksenia Rakhmanchik, Victoria Davis+2.7
84-4BAYLORTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+1.7
94-5TCUBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Tehani Ulufatu+1.7
105-5BAYLORTCUAttack errIsabela Haggard+1.7
115-6TCUBAYLOR×3KillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+1.8
125-7BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillIsabela Haggardset Tehani Ulufatu+2.8
135-8BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillBailey Warrenset Taylor Crain+2.6
146-8BAYLORTCUServe errBaylor+1.4
156-9TCUBAYLORServe errTCU+1.6
166-10BAYLORBAYLORKillLacy Tinnell+2.3
177-10BAYLORTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+1.2
187-11TCUBAYLORKillLacy Tinnellset Isabela Haggard+1.4
198-11BAYLORTCU×3BlockedKsenia Rakhmanchikblk De'Andrea McMillian, Jalyn Gibson+1.2
209-11TCUTCU×3KillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+2.4
2110-11TCUTCU×3Attack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+2.9
2210-12TCUBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+2.0
2311-12BAYLORTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+1.9
2412-12TCUTCUBlockedVictoria Davisblk Kinsley Young+3.5
2512-13TCUBAYLORServe errTCU+2.2
2613-13BAYLORTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+2.2
2713-14TCUBAYLORServe errTCU+2.3
2813-15BAYLORBAYLORAceBayloraced Alice Volpe+3.6
2914-15BAYLORTCUBlockedNadiya Johnsonblk Reese Robins, Kinsley Young+2.1
3014-16TCUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+2.3
3115-16BAYLORTCU×4BlockedLacy Tinnellblk Becca Kelley, De'Andrea McMillian+2.1
3216-16TCUTCU×4BlockedKsenia Rakhmanchikblk De'Andrea McMillian, Becca Kelley+4.1
3317-16TCUTCU×4KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+4.6
3418-16TCUTCU×4Attack errBailey Warren+4.6
3518-17TCUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+2.4
3619-17BAYLORTCUServe errBaylor+3.0
3719-18TCUBAYLOR×5Bad setEvan Hendrix+2.5
3819-19BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillLacy Tinnell+5.1
3919-20BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+5.5
4019-21BAYLORBAYLOR×5BlockedEvan Hendrixblk Lacy Tinnell, Nadiya Johnson+5.1
4119-22BAYLORBAYLOR×5Attack errJalyn Gibson+4.0
4220-22BAYLORTCU×4KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+1.5
4321-22TCUTCU×4KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+4.2
4422-22TCUTCU×4KillJalyn Gibsonset Alice Volpe+6.5
4523-22TCUTCU×4BlockedBailey Warrenblk Evan Hendrix, Kinsley Young+8.4
4623-23TCUBAYLORKillLacy Tinnellset Isabela Haggard+4.8
4724-23BAYLORTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+6.4
4824-24TCUBAYLORKillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+6.4
4924-25BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchik+9.9
5025-25BAYLORTCU×3KillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+6.0
5126-25TCUTCU×3KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+10.2
5227-25TCUTCU×3KillBecca Kelleyset Jalyn Gibson+10.8
Set 2
10-1TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Morgan Madison+1.8
20-2BAYLORBAYLORAttack errEvan Hendrix+2.8
31-2BAYLORTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+1.7
41-3TCUBAYLORKillNadiya Johnsonset Isabela Haggard+1.8
52-3BAYLORTCUServe errBaylor+1.7
62-4TCUBAYLOR×3KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.8
72-5BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+2.7
82-6BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errEvan Hendrix+2.4
93-6BAYLORTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+1.3
103-7TCUBAYLORServe errTCU+1.5
114-7BAYLORTCUAttack errBailey Warren+1.3
124-8TCUBAYLOR×5KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.5
134-9BAYLORBAYLOR×5AceBayloraced Alice Volpe+2.1
144-10BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+1.7
154-11BAYLORBAYLOR×5KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+1.3
164-12BAYLORBAYLOR×5BlockedEvan Hendrixblk Lacy Tinnell+0.9
175-12BAYLORTCU×3KillBecca Kelleyset Addy Horner+0.4
186-12TCUTCU×3BlockedNadiya Johnsonblk De'Andrea McMillian, Jalyn Gibson+0.9
197-12TCUTCU×3KillBecca Kelleyset Alice Volpe+1.2
207-13TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.0
217-14BAYLORBAYLORBlockedBecca Kelleyblk Lacy Tinnell, Ksenia Rakhmanchik+1.2
228-14BAYLORTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.5
238-15TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Morgan Madison+0.7
248-16BAYLORBAYLORBlockedBecca Kelleyblk Ksenia Rakhmanchik, Victoria Davis, Nadiya Johnson+0.7
259-16BAYLORTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+0.3
2610-16TCUTCUAttack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+0.7
2710-17TCUBAYLOR×3KillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+0.6
2810-18BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errKinsley Young+0.6
2910-19BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.3
3011-19BAYLORTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Becca Kelley+0.1
3111-20TCUBAYLORServe errTCU+0.1
3212-20BAYLORTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.1
3313-20TCUTCUAceEvan Hendrixaced Morgan Madison+0.2
3413-21TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.2
3514-21BAYLORTCUKillKinsley Youngset Reese Wilburn+0.1
3614-22TCUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.2
3715-22BAYLORTCU×6KillLauren Murphyset Reese Wilburn·
3816-22TCUTCU×6KillBecca Kelleyset Lauren Murphy+0.2
3917-22TCUTCU×6KillBecca Kelleyset Lauren Murphy+0.4
4018-22TCUTCU×6KillBecca Kelleyset Lauren Murphy+0.7
4119-22TCUTCU×6Attack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+1.5
4220-22TCUTCU×6KillBecca Kelleyset Evan Hendrix+2.7
4320-23TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.8
4421-23BAYLORTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+1.4
4521-24TCUBAYLORServe errBecca Kelley+2.8
4621-25BAYLORBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.5
Set 3
11-0BAYLORTCUKillLauren Murphyset Reese Wilburn+2.2
21-1TCUBAYLOR×3Attack errJalyn Gibson+2.2
31-2BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillVictoria Davisset Isabela Haggard+3.6
41-3BAYLORBAYLOR×3BlockedJalyn Gibsonblk Victoria Davis, Grace Carroll+3.4
52-3BAYLORTCUServe errBaylor+2.1
62-4TCUBAYLORBlockedBecca Kelleyblk Victoria Davis, Grace Carroll+2.1
73-4BAYLORTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+2.1
83-5TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.2
94-5BAYLORTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Jalyn Gibson+2.1
104-6TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.2
115-6BAYLORTCU×4KillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+2.2
126-6TCUTCU×4Attack errEvan Hendrix+3.9
137-6TCUTCU×4KillEvan Hendrixset Alice Volpe+4.2
148-6TCUTCU×4Attack errBailey Warren+4.2
158-7TCUBAYLOR×4KillMya Hemmerset Isabela Haggard+2.4
168-8BAYLORBAYLOR×4KillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+4.2
178-9BAYLORBAYLOR×4KillBailey Warren+4.3
188-10BAYLORBAYLOR×4Bad setReese Wilburn+4.1
199-10BAYLORTCUServe errBaylor+2.4
209-11TCUBAYLORKillGrace Carrollset Isabela Haggard+2.6
2110-11BAYLORTCUServe errBaylor+2.5
2211-11TCUTCUAttack errMya Hemmer+4.5
2311-12TCUBAYLOR×4KillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Morgan Madison+2.9
2411-13BAYLORBAYLOR×4BlockedJalyn Gibsonblk Grace Carroll, Victoria Davis+4.5
2511-14BAYLORBAYLOR×4AceBayloraced Becca Kelley+4.1
2611-15BAYLORBAYLOR×4BlockedDe'Andrea McMillianblk Ksenia Rakhmanchik, Victoria Davis+3.4
2712-15BAYLORTCU×6KillBecca Kelleyset Reese Wilburn+1.7
2813-15TCUTCU×6Attack errVictoria Davis+3.5
2914-15TCUTCU×6Attack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+4.5
3015-15TCUTCU×6Attack errGrace Carroll+5.3
3116-15TCUTCU×6AceRosemary Archeraced MJ McCurdy+5.8
3217-15TCUTCU×6Attack errKsenia Rakhmanchik+5.9
3317-16TCUBAYLORKillGrace Carrollset Isabela Haggard+3.2
3417-17BAYLORBAYLORAceBayloraced Jalyn Gibson+6.0
3518-17BAYLORTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+4.1
3619-17TCUTCUAttack errVictoria Davis+6.6
3719-18TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+3.5
3820-18BAYLORTCUAttack errBailey Warren+4.4
3921-18TCUTCUBad setMorgan Madison+6.1
4021-19TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.5
4121-20BAYLORBAYLORBlockedEvan Hendrixblk Mya Hemmer, Isabela Haggard+6.1
4222-20BAYLORTCUKillLauren Murphyset Rosemary Archer+5.3
4322-21TCUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+3.8
4423-21BAYLORTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Reese Wilburn+5.9
4524-21TCUTCUBlockedGrace Carrollblk Becca Kelley, De'Andrea McMillian+8.8
Set 4
10-1TCUBAYLORKillMya Hemmerset Isabela Haggard+2.4
21-1BAYLORTCUKillDe'Andrea McMillianset Reese Wilburn+2.4
31-2TCUBAYLORAttack errDe'Andrea McMillian+2.4
41-3BAYLORBAYLORAceBayloraced Evan Hendrix+3.8
52-3BAYLORTCUBlockedKsenia Rakhmanchikblk Jalyn Gibson, De'Andrea McMillian+2.3
62-4TCUBAYLOR×3Serve errRosemary Archer+2.4
72-5BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errBecca Kelley+3.6
82-6BAYLORBAYLOR×3Attack errJalyn Gibson+3.2
93-6BAYLORTCUBad setKsenia Rakhmanchik+1.8
103-7TCUBAYLORKillIsabela Haggardset Tehani Ulufatu+2.0
113-8BAYLORBAYLORAttack errBecca Kelley+2.8
124-8BAYLORTCUServe errBaylor+1.4
135-8TCUTCUAttack errBailey Warren+2.9
145-9TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+2.1
156-9BAYLORTCUKillLauren Murphyset Rosemary Archer+1.8
166-10TCUBAYLOR×4KillGrace Carrollset Isabela Haggard+2.1
176-11BAYLORBAYLOR×4Attack errEvan Hendrix+2.9
186-12BAYLORBAYLOR×4AceBayloraced Jalyn Gibson+2.2
196-13BAYLORBAYLOR×4AceBayloraced Jalyn Gibson+1.6
207-13BAYLORTCUServe errBaylor+0.7
217-14TCUBAYLORKillMya Hemmerset Isabela Haggard+0.9
227-15BAYLORBAYLORKillMJ McCurdyset Isabela Haggard+1.0
238-15BAYLORTCUKillLauren Murphyset Reese Wilburn+0.4
248-16TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.6
258-17BAYLORBAYLORBlockedBecca Kelleyblk Victoria Davis, Isabela Haggard+0.5
269-17BAYLORTCUAttack errVictoria Davis+0.2
2710-17TCUTCUAttack errBailey Warren+0.5
2810-18TCUBAYLORServe errRosemary Archer+0.5
2910-19BAYLORBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.4
3011-19BAYLORTCUAttack errBailey Warren+0.1
3111-20TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+0.2
3212-20BAYLORTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+0.1
3313-20TCUTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+0.2
3413-21TCUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+0.3
3514-21BAYLORTCUKillLauren Murphyset Rosemary Archer+0.1
3614-22TCUBAYLOR×3KillGrace Carrollset Isabela Haggard+0.2
3714-23BAYLORBAYLOR×3Bad setJalyn Gibson+0.1
3814-24BAYLORBAYLOR×3KillMJ McCurdyset Isabela Haggard·
3915-24BAYLORTCUKillLauren Murphyset Reese Wilburn·
4015-25TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+1.8
Set 5
11-0TCUTCUAttack errMya Hemmer+9.6
22-0TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+9.7
32-1TCUBAYLORKillMya Hemmerset Rosemary Archer+5.5
43-1BAYLORTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+6.3
54-1TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Alice Volpe+9.6
64-2TCUBAYLORServe errBecca Kelley+5.0
75-2BAYLORTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+6.2
85-3TCUBAYLORKillIsabela Haggardset Tehani Ulufatu+5.1
96-3BAYLORTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Alice Volpe+6.4
107-3TCUTCUBlockedBailey Warrenblk Kinsley Young, Rosemary Archer+8.8
117-4TCUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+4.0
127-5BAYLORBAYLORAttack errBecca Kelley+8.6
138-5BAYLORTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+6.8
148-6TCUBAYLORKillBailey Warrenset Isabela Haggard+5.3
159-6BAYLORTCUKillNadiya Johnsonset Reese Wilburn+7.1
1610-6TCUTCUAttack errBailey Warren+9.0
1710-7TCUBAYLORKillKsenia Rakhmanchikset Isabela Haggard+3.5
1811-7BAYLORTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Reese Wilburn+5.5
1912-7TCUTCUBlockedKsenia Rakhmanchikblk Jalyn Gibson, De'Andrea McMillian+5.4
2012-8TCUBAYLORKillMya Hemmerset Isabela Haggard+1.4
2113-8BAYLORTCU×3KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+2.8
2214-8TCUTCU×3AceBecca Kelleyaced MJ McCurdy+1.6
2315-8TCUTCU×3KillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.3

Score shown after each rally, TCU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).