FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayNEC

0:3

HomeBIG-EAST

Providence def. Stonehill 3–0

(25-12, 25-15, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STONEH	12	15	20	0
PROV	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

PROV above 50 · STONEH below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Stonehill — set 2, STONEH 4-1 PROV. Kill by Annabelle Svenson. PROV win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STONEH 0.7%99.3% PROV

Stonehill wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.5%

Providence wins

3-0

76.8%

3-1

19.4%

3-2

3.1%

STONEH break %: 34.1% vs this opp
PROV break %: 52.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Annabelle SvensonKill+0.1%
Kill by Annabelle Svenson
Set 2 · STONEH 4-1 PROV · STONEH 1% → 1%
02
Catherine DetweilerKill+0.1%
Kill by Catherine Detweiler (set by Kendra Sawyer)
Set 2 · STONEH 6-3 PROV · STONEH 1% → 1%
03
Jess BarrettAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Jess Barrett
Set 2 · STONEH 6-5 PROV · PROV 99% → 99%
04
Kaisa DowdKill+0.1%
Kill by Kaisa Dowd (set by Kendra Sawyer)
Set 2 · STONEH 5-2 PROV · STONEH 1% → 1%
05
STONEH serverAce+0.1%
Stonehill ace on Macy Taylor
Set 2 · STONEH 3-1 PROV · STONEH 0% → 1%
06
Samantha LoydKill+0.1%
Kill by Samantha Loyd (set by Kristina Bishop)
Set 1 · STONEH 4-5 PROV · STONEH 1% → 1%
07
STONEH serverAce+0.1%
Stonehill ace on Macy Taylor
Set 3 · STONEH 11-4 PROV · STONEH 1% → 1%
08
Macy TaylorKill+0.1%
Kill by Macy Taylor
Set 2 · STONEH 6-6 PROV · PROV 99% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Stonehillaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
13Addy FryeOH	3	6	2	11	.364	0	1	0	9	0	0	0	7
24Annabelle SvensonMB	3	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
10Catherine DetweilerMB	3	2	0	7	.286	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
3Kendra SawyerS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
12Samantha LoydOH	2	4	2	16	.125	1	0	0	5	1	0	0	4
21Haley HerndonOPP	1	2	4	7	-.286	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
7Sammy FrancoOPP	3	2	8	21	-.286	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2
1Casey McDermottS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	0	10	0	0	0	1
4Kristina BishopL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	7	1	0	0	0
18Kaisa DowdOH	2	7	2	15	.333	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	9
11Mia CrowleyOH	2	2	2	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
23Addison KoontzL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Roe BelandOH	1	3	6	11	-.273	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
16Jess BarrettOH	1	0	3	11	-.273	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	1
5Rosa SmithS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	30	114	.000	27	5	4	45	4	2	1	47

Providencehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
9Tori OtterMB	3	10	3	17	.412	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	11
0Aubrey EasterwoodMB	3	6	0	15	.400	0	1	1	0	1	5	2.5	9.5
15Macy TaylorOH	3	5	0	15	.333	1	0	1	11	2	2	1	6
21Sophia AdkinsOH	3	5	2	16	.188	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	5
11Lyric BerryMB	3	3	2	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
1Miller McDonaldS	3	0	0	0	–	17	1	0	5	0	0	0	1
7Shea DupuisOH	3	4	0	11	.364	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	5
8Gwenyth KossOH	3	0	0	2	.000	0	2	0	3	0	1	0.5	2.5
20Sarah MusialS	3	1	0	2	.500	10	0	1	4	0	0	0	1
6Ava DyerL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	0	1	15	1	0	0	0
32Lyla BuserOH	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		35	8	90	.300	32	4	4	45	5	14	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 STONEH · PROV 8

Set 1

12-25

Longest run 2 STONEHPROV 7

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 3 STONEHPROV 7

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 5 STONEHPROV 8

Bars above the line = Providence leads, below = Stonehill leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Stonehill

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	55%6/11	20%1/5
2	55%6/11	45%5/11
3	60%6/10	25%2/8
4	33%5/15	40%4/10
5	21%4/19	50%5/10
6	38%3/8	0%0/4
All	41%30/74	35%17/48

Providence

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	58%7/12
2	60%6/10	25%2/8
3	67%6/9	50%6/12
4	50%5/10	64%9/14
5	83%5/6	69%11/16
6	100%3/3	75%9/12
All	65%31/48	59%44/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

122 rallies

Rally log

#	STONEH-PROV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Haley Herndon		+0.1
2	1-1	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Addy Frye	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.1
3	1-2	STONEH	PROV	Attack err	Haley Herndon		+0.1
4	1-3	PROV	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
5	2-3	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.1
6	2-4	STONEH	PROV	Serve err	STONEH server		+0.1
7	2-5	PROV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
8	3-5	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.1
9	4-5	STONEH	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Kristina Bishop	+0.1
10	4-6	STONEH	PROV×7	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
11	4-7	PROV	PROV×7	Attack err	Samantha Loyd		+0.1
12	4-8	PROV	PROV×7	Attack err	Sammy Franco		+0.1
13	4-9	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.0
14	4-10	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
15	4-11	PROV	PROV×7	Attack err	Sammy Franco	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Shea Dupuis	+0.0
16	4-12	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Catherine Detweiler	set Casey McDermott	+0.0
17	5-12	PROV	STONEH	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
18	5-13	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
19	6-13	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+0.0
20	6-14	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
21	6-15	PROV	PROV	Ace	PROV server	aced Samantha Loyd	+0.0
22	7-15	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Addy Frye	set Casey McDermott	+0.0
23	7-16	STONEH	PROV×3	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
24	7-17	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Addy Frye	blk Lyric Berry, Tori Otter	+0.0
25	7-18	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Haley Herndon		+0.0
26	8-18	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Addy Frye	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.0
27	8-19	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
28	9-19	PROV	STONEH	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.0
29	10-19	STONEH	STONEH	Kill	Addy Frye	set Samantha Loyd	+0.0
30	10-20	STONEH	PROV×3	Serve err	STONEH server		+0.0
31	10-21	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
32	10-22	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Haley Herndon		+0.0
33	11-22	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.0
34	12-22	STONEH	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+0.0
35	12-23	STONEH	PROV×3	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
36	12-24	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Samantha Loyd	blk Gwenyth Koss, Aubrey Easterwood	+0.0
37	12-25	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Sammy Franco		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	STONEH	STONEH	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+0.1
2	1-1	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Macy Taylor	+0.1
3	2-1	PROV	STONEH×3	Serve err	PROV server		+0.1
4	3-1	STONEH	STONEH×3	Ace	STONEH server	aced Macy Taylor	+0.1
5	4-1	STONEH	STONEH×3	Kill	Annabelle Svenson		+0.1
6	4-2	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
7	5-2	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Kaisa Dowd	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.1
8	5-3	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Sarah Musial		+0.1
9	6-3	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Catherine Detweiler	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.1
10	6-4	STONEH	PROV×3	Attack err	Kaisa Dowd		+0.1
11	6-5	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Jess Barrett		+0.1
12	6-6	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Macy Taylor		+0.1
13	7-6	PROV	STONEH	Serve err	PROV server		+0.1
14	7-7	STONEH	PROV×7	Serve err	STONEH server		+0.1
15	7-8	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Ava Dyer	+0.1
16	7-9	PROV	PROV×7	Attack err	Jess Barrett	blk Lyric Berry, Tori Otter	+0.1
17	7-10	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
18	7-11	PROV	PROV×7	Ace	PROV server	aced Jess Barrett	+0.0
19	7-12	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
20	7-13	PROV	PROV×7	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
21	8-13	PROV	STONEH	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.0
22	8-14	STONEH	PROV×3	Attack err	Jess Barrett		+0.0
23	8-15	PROV	PROV×3	Bad set	Casey McDermott		+0.0
24	8-16	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Tori Otter	set Ava Dyer	+0.0
25	9-16	PROV	STONEH	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
26	9-17	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
27	10-17	PROV	STONEH	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+0.0
28	10-18	STONEH	PROV×4	Attack err	Kaisa Dowd		+0.0
29	10-19	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
30	10-20	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Mia Crowley		+0.0
31	10-21	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
32	11-21	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Kaisa Dowd	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.0
33	11-22	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
34	11-23	PROV	PROV	Ace	PROV server	aced Team	+0.0
35	12-23	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Mia Crowley	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.0
36	13-23	STONEH	STONEH	Kill	Kaisa Dowd	set Kristina Bishop	+0.0
37	13-24	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
38	14-24	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Kaisa Dowd	set Casey McDermott	+0.0
39	15-24	STONEH	STONEH	Attack err	Lyla Buser		+0.0
40	15-25	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Lyla Buser	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	PROV	STONEH×3	Kill	Addy Frye	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.0
2	2-0	STONEH	STONEH×3	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.0
3	3-0	STONEH	STONEH×3	Ace	STONEH server	aced Sophia Adkins	+0.1
4	3-1	STONEH	PROV	Attack err	Addy Frye		+0.0
5	3-2	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
6	4-2	PROV	STONEH	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+0.0
7	5-2	STONEH	STONEH	Kill	Mia Crowley	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.1
8	5-3	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
9	6-3	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Catherine Detweiler	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.1
10	7-3	STONEH	STONEH	Ace	STONEH server	aced Aubrey Easterwood	+0.1
11	7-4	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
12	8-4	PROV	STONEH×5	Kill	Addy Frye	set Casey McDermott	+0.1
13	9-4	STONEH	STONEH×5	Kill	Roe Beland	set Kristina Bishop	+0.1
14	10-4	STONEH	STONEH×5	Kill	Roe Beland		+0.1
15	11-4	STONEH	STONEH×5	Ace	STONEH server	aced Macy Taylor	+0.1
16	12-4	STONEH	STONEH×5	Ace	STONEH server	aced Ava Dyer	+0.1
17	12-5	STONEH	PROV×8	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
18	12-6	PROV	PROV×8	Attack err	Roe Beland		+0.1
19	12-7	PROV	PROV×8	Attack err	Roe Beland		+0.1
20	12-8	PROV	PROV×8	Attack err	Roe Beland	blk Shea Dupuis, Aubrey Easterwood	+0.1
21	12-9	PROV	PROV×8	Attack err	Roe Beland		+0.1
22	12-10	PROV	PROV×8	Attack err	Sammy Franco	blk Macy Taylor, Aubrey Easterwood	+0.1
23	12-11	PROV	PROV×8	Attack err	Sammy Franco		+0.1
24	12-12	PROV	PROV×8	Attack err	Roe Beland		+0.1
25	13-12	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Sammy Franco	set Rosa Smith	+0.1
26	13-13	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Ava Dyer	+0.0
27	13-14	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Sammy Franco		+0.1
28	14-14	PROV	STONEH	Attack err	Lyric Berry	blk Roe Beland, Annabelle Svenson	+0.1
29	14-15	STONEH	PROV×3	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Samantha Loyd	+0.0
30	14-16	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Annabelle Svenson		+0.1
31	14-17	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Mia Crowley		+0.0
32	15-17	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Roe Beland	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.0
33	16-17	STONEH	STONEH	Kill	Annabelle Svenson	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.1
34	16-18	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
35	17-18	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Kaisa Dowd	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.0
36	17-19	STONEH	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
37	18-19	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Kaisa Dowd	set Kendra Sawyer	+0.1
38	18-20	STONEH	PROV	Attack err	Sammy Franco		+0.1
39	19-20	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Kaisa Dowd	set Rosa Smith	+0.1
40	19-21	STONEH	PROV×3	Serve err	STONEH server		+0.1
41	19-22	PROV	PROV×3	Bad set	Rosa Smith		+0.1
42	19-23	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	PROV server	aced Kristina Bishop	+0.0
43	20-23	PROV	STONEH	Kill	Sammy Franco	set Kristina Bishop	+0.0
44	20-24	STONEH	PROV	Attack err	Sammy Franco	blk Macy Taylor, Aubrey Easterwood	+0.0
45	20-25	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Roe Beland		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Stonehill first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.