Stonehill vs Chicago State: Chicago State Wins 3-2 (Oct 2)

Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026

2:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Stonehill 95.0% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Chicago St. beat visiting Stonehill 3-2 (25-21, 26-24, 11-25, 23-25, 16-14) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Nayella George led Chicago St. with 15 kills; Stonehill's Samantha Loyd had a match-high 23.

Data through Nov 3, 3:00 PM CT · final Oct 2

Set	1	2	3	4	5	Sets
STONEH	21	24	25	25	14	2
CHI ST	25	26	11	23	16	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

The upset: Chicago St., a 5% pick, over Stonehill.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Chicago St.'s RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, Stonehill was RallyIQ's 95% pick.

Turning point 1: Set 2 · Stonehill 24–22 Chicago St.
Chicago St. won 4 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 26–24 and lead 2–0.
Chicago St. 12% → 48%
Turning point 2: Set 5 · Stonehill 10–10 Chicago St.
From 10–10, Chicago St. scored 3 straight to lead 13–10. The match swung to Chicago St.
Chicago St. 34% → 83%
Turning point 3: Set 5 · Stonehill 11–14 Chicago St.
Stonehill scored 3 straight to erase an 11–14 deficit and tie it at 14. The match swung to Stonehill.
Chicago St. 90% → 39%

Chicago St. above 50Stonehill belowMax swing 37.6%

StonehillChicago St.

Sideout %: Stonehill 60.4·Chicago St. 56.0
Break %: Stonehill 44.0·Chicago St. 39.6
Hitting: Stonehill .167·Chicago St. .190
Longest run: Stonehill 6·Chicago St. 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Chicago St. above 50 · Stonehill below

Biggest swing: 37.6% to Chicago St. — set 5, STONEH 14-16 CHI ST. Kill by Nayella George (set by Jenesis Perrin). CHI ST win probability 62% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STONEH 91.7%8.3% CHI ST

Stonehill wins

3-0

47.6%

3-1

31.3%

3-2

12.8%

Chicago St. wins

3-0

1.0%

3-1

2.5%

3-2

4.8%

STONEH break %: 50.0% vs this opp
CHI ST break %: 39.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Nayella GeorgeKill+37.6%
Kill by Nayella George (set by Jenesis Perrin)
Set 5 · STONEH 14-16 CHI ST · CHI ST 62% → 100%
02
Camryn McCollumAttack error+29.9%
Attack error by Camryn McCollum
Set 5 · STONEH 14-14 CHI ST · STONEH 31% → 61%
03
StonehillService error+23.2%
Stonehill service error
Set 5 · STONEH 14-15 CHI ST · CHI ST 39% → 62%
04
Rayon ThigpenBlock+18.1%
Annabelle Svenson stuffed by Rayon Thigpen
Set 5 · STONEH 10-12 CHI ST · CHI ST 47% → 65%
05
Haley HerndonAttack error+17.6%
Attack error by Haley Herndon
Set 5 · STONEH 10-13 CHI ST · CHI ST 65% → 83%
06
Nayella GeorgeKill+15.5%
Kill by Nayella George (set by Kristine Bakhad)
Set 5 · STONEH 11-14 CHI ST · CHI ST 75% → 90%
07
Nayella GeorgeAttack error+15.2%
Attack error by Nayella George
Set 5 · STONEH 13-14 CHI ST · STONEH 16% → 31%
08
Nayella George&Graci LittlejohnBlock+14.4%
Sammy Franco stuffed by Nayella George & Graci Littlejohn
Set 2 · STONEH 24-26 CHI ST · CHI ST 34% → 48%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Stonehillaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Samantha LoydOH	5	23	10	55	.236	1	0	3	11	0	0	1	0.5	23.5
13Addy FryeOH	5	8	5	28	.107	0	1	2	14	1	0	0	0	9
7Sammy FrancoOPP	5	7	6	24	.042	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	8
24Annabelle SvensonMB	5	4	2	17	.118	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	2	6
5Rosa SmithS	5	1	0	1	1.000	19	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	4
2Reegan MishkinMB	2	2	2	5	.000	0	1	2	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
21Haley HerndonOPP	5	12	7	30	.167	1	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	13
4Kristina BishopL/DS	5	0	0	0	–	6	2	3	16	1	0	0	0	2
1Casey McDermottS	5	0	0	0	–	28	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
23Addison KoontzL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Abby FarrellMB	3	2	0	2	1.000	0	2	2	0	0	0	2	1	5
9Gabi PolishukOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		59	32	162	.167	55	10	14	58	2	1	10	6	109

Chicago St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Nayella GeorgeOH	5	15	7	41	.195	2	0	1	10	2	0	4	2	17
3Graci LittlejohnMB	5	7	2	12	.417	0	0	0	1	0	2	9	6.5	13.5
9Nina MitchellOH	5	11	8	39	.077	0	0	5	10	2	0	3	1.5	12.5
1Rayon ThigpenMB	5	6	0	8	.750	1	0	1	0	0	2	5	4.5	10.5
2Camryn McCollumOH	5	5	8	24	-.125	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	2.5	7.5
8Kristine BakhadS	5	3	0	4	.750	27	0	2	10	0	0	0	0	3
4Jenesis PerrinMB	5	6	1	13	.385	2	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	7
5Emeli Muagututi'aS	5	0	0	0	–	13	1	0	9	0	0	0	0	1
6Tenese ButtryDS	5	0	0	0	–	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	0	1
12Skye RileyOH	5	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	13	2	0	0	0	0
7Reece MazzierL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Eliza CovrigL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		53	26	142	.190	49	2	12	59	10	4	28	18	101

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Stonehill vs Chicago St.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Fri, Oct 2, 2026Stonehill at Chicago St. · Chicago St. won 3-2This match
Sat, Oct 3, 2026Stonehill at Chicago St. · Stonehill won 3-2Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 STONEH · CHI ST 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 2 STONEHCHI ST 3

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 6 STONEHCHI ST 5

Set 3

25-11

Longest run 6 STONEHCHI ST 3

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 4 STONEHCHI ST 4

Set 5

14-16

Longest run 4 STONEHCHI ST 3

Bars above the line = Chicago St. leads, below = Stonehill leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Stonehill

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	65%13/20	50%10/20
2	52%12/23	38%8/21
3	57%12/21	43%9/21
4	57%8/14	52%11/21
5	73%8/11	27%3/11
6	67%8/12	47%7/15
All	60%61/101	44%48/109

Chicago St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%13/23	35%6/17
2	57%13/23	38%8/21
3	50%11/22	48%11/23
4	80%8/10	40%6/15
5	67%8/12	43%6/14
6	42%8/19	27%3/11
All	56%61/109	40%40/101

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

210 rallies

#	STONEH-CHI ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Samantha Loyd		+0.7
2	0-2	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Nayella George	+0.8
3	0-3	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.9
4	1-3	CHI ST	STONEH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+0.6
5	1-4	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Skye Riley	+0.8
6	1-5	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Rayon Thigpen	+1.0
7	2-5	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Sammy Franco	set Rosa Smith	+0.7
8	3-5	STONEH	STONEH	Ace	Stonehill	aced Nayella George	+0.9
9	3-6	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		+0.8
10	4-6	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Reegan Mishkin	set Rosa Smith	+0.7
11	5-6	STONEH	STONEH	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.8
12	5-7	STONEH	CHI ST	Blocked	Reegan Mishkin	blk Graci Littlejohn	+0.8
13	6-7	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Casey McDermott	+0.7
14	6-8	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.8
15	7-8	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+0.7
16	8-8	STONEH	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+0.8
17	8-9	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		+0.8
18	8-10	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Haley Herndon		+1.1
19	9-10	CHI ST	STONEH	Attack err	Samantha Loyd		+0.8
20	9-11	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+1.0
21	10-11	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Rosa Smith	+0.8
22	11-11	STONEH	STONEH	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+1.0
23	11-12	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.9
24	11-13	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+1.3
25	12-13	CHI ST	STONEH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+0.9
26	13-13	STONEH	STONEH	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+1.1
27	13-14	STONEH	CHI ST	Blocked	Sammy Franco	blk Rayon Thigpen	+1.0
28	14-14	CHI ST	STONEH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+0.9
29	14-15	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+1.1
30	15-15	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Casey McDermott	+1.0
31	15-16	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+1.2
32	16-16	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Casey McDermott	+1.0
33	16-17	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Nayella George	+1.3
34	17-17	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Reegan Mishkin	set Casey McDermott	+1.1
35	18-17	STONEH	STONEH	Kill	Annabelle Svenson	set Rosa Smith	+1.3
36	18-18	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+1.2
37	18-19	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Samantha Loyd		+1.8
38	19-19	CHI ST	STONEH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+1.3
39	19-20	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Kristine Bakhad	+1.6
40	19-21	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Kristine Bakhad	+2.3
41	20-21	CHI ST	STONEH	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+1.5
42	20-22	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		+2.2
43	20-23	CHI ST	CHI ST	Blocked	Addy Frye	blk Graci Littlejohn, Camryn McCollum	+2.6
44	21-23	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Rosa Smith	+1.1
45	21-24	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+2.3
46	21-25	CHI ST	CHI ST	Blocked	Reegan Mishkin	blk Nina Mitchell, Graci Littlejohn	+1.4
Set 2
1	0-1	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		+1.5
2	1-1	CHI ST	STONEH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+1.3
3	2-1	STONEH	STONEH	Kill	Addy Frye	set Rosa Smith	+1.5
4	2-2	STONEH	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+1.3
5	2-3	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+1.9
6	2-4	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nayella George	set Tenese Buttry	+2.3
7	3-4	CHI ST	STONEH×3	Serve err	Chicago St.		+1.6
8	4-4	STONEH	STONEH×3	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+1.9
9	5-4	STONEH	STONEH×3	Ace	Stonehill	aced Nayella George	+1.7
10	5-5	STONEH	CHI ST×3	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+1.5
11	5-6	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Blocked	Sammy Franco	blk Graci Littlejohn, Nayella George	+2.2
12	5-7	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Ace	Chicago St.	aced Addy Frye	+2.6
13	6-7	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Addy Frye	set Rosa Smith	+1.8
14	6-8	STONEH	CHI ST	Attack err	Addy Frye		+2.2
15	6-9	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Addy Frye		+3.0
16	7-9	CHI ST	STONEH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+2.0
17	7-10	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+2.6
18	8-10	CHI ST	STONEH×6	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+2.1
19	9-10	STONEH	STONEH×6	Ace	Stonehill	aced Nina Mitchell	+2.6
20	10-10	STONEH	STONEH×6	Blocked	Nina Mitchell	blk Annabelle Svenson, Haley Herndon	+2.4
21	11-10	STONEH	STONEH×6	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Haley Herndon	+2.2
22	12-10	STONEH	STONEH×6	Attack err	Jenesis Perrin		+1.9
23	13-10	STONEH	STONEH×6	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+1.6
24	13-11	STONEH	CHI ST×3	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+1.3
25	13-12	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Blocked	Samantha Loyd	blk Rayon Thigpen, Camryn McCollum	+2.1
26	13-13	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Blocked	Haley Herndon	blk Rayon Thigpen, Nina Mitchell	+2.7
27	14-13	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+2.0
28	14-14	STONEH	CHI ST	Attack err	Samantha Loyd		+2.3
29	14-15	CHI ST	CHI ST	Blocked	Samantha Loyd	blk Rayon Thigpen, Nayella George	+3.5
30	15-15	CHI ST	STONEH	Blocked	Nayella George	blk Samantha Loyd, Annabelle Svenson	+2.5
31	15-16	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		+3.1
32	16-16	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Sammy Franco	set Rosa Smith	+2.7
33	16-17	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+3.3
34	17-17	CHI ST	STONEH×3	Blocked	Nayella George	blk Sammy Franco, Reegan Mishkin	+2.9
35	18-17	STONEH	STONEH×3	Kill	Addy Frye	set Kristina Bishop	+3.5
36	19-17	STONEH	STONEH×3	Kill	Addy Frye	set Kristina Bishop	+2.9
37	19-18	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+2.3
38	20-18	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Kristina Bishop	+2.5
39	21-18	STONEH	STONEH	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Casey McDermott	+2.4
40	21-19	STONEH	CHI ST	Attack err	Samantha Loyd		+1.6
41	22-19	CHI ST	STONEH	Attack err	Nayella George		+2.0
42	22-20	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		+1.5
43	23-20	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Annabelle Svenson	set Casey McDermott	+2.1
44	23-21	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Kristine Bakhad	+1.4
45	24-21	CHI ST	STONEH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+2.1
46	24-22	STONEH	CHI ST×5	Blocked	Sammy Franco	blk Nayella George, Rayon Thigpen	+1.0
47	24-23	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Blocked	Addy Frye	blk Graci Littlejohn, Camryn McCollum	+3.1
48	24-24	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+8.1
49	24-25	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Blocked	Annabelle Svenson	blk Graci Littlejohn	+10.8
50	24-26	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Blocked	Sammy Franco	blk Nayella George, Graci Littlejohn	+14.4
Set 3
1	1-0	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Kristina Bishop	+1.8
2	1-1	STONEH	CHI ST	Blocked	Samantha Loyd	blk Rayon Thigpen, Camryn McCollum	+2.1
3	2-1	CHI ST	STONEH×6	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+1.9
4	3-1	STONEH	STONEH×6	Attack err	Nayella George		+2.1
5	4-1	STONEH	STONEH×6	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+1.8
6	5-1	STONEH	STONEH×6	Bad set	Nayella George		+1.5
7	6-1	STONEH	STONEH×6	Ace	Stonehill		+1.2
8	7-1	STONEH	STONEH×6	Ace	Stonehill	aced Skye Riley	+0.9
9	7-2	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		+0.7
10	7-3	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Haley Herndon		+1.1
11	8-3	CHI ST	STONEH×5	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+0.9
12	9-3	STONEH	STONEH×5	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.9
13	10-3	STONEH	STONEH×5	Ace	Stonehill	aced Camryn McCollum	+0.7
14	11-3	STONEH	STONEH×5	Ace	Stonehill	aced Skye Riley	+0.5
15	12-3	STONEH	STONEH×5	Ace	Stonehill		+0.3
16	12-4	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.2
17	13-4	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Rosa Smith	+0.2
18	13-5	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Jenesis Perrin	+0.2
19	14-5	CHI ST	STONEH	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.2
20	14-6	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		+0.2
21	15-6	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Sammy Franco	set Rosa Smith	+0.2
22	16-6	STONEH	STONEH	Ace	Stonehill	aced Nina Mitchell	+0.2
23	16-7	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.1
24	17-7	CHI ST	STONEH×5	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Casey McDermott	+0.1
25	18-7	STONEH	STONEH×5	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Casey McDermott	+0.1
26	19-7	STONEH	STONEH×5	Kill	Annabelle Svenson	set Casey McDermott	·
27	20-7	STONEH	STONEH×5	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	·
28	21-7	STONEH	STONEH×5	Ace	Stonehill		·
29	21-8	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		·
30	22-8	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Casey McDermott	·
31	22-9	STONEH	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	·
32	22-10	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Samantha Loyd		·
33	22-11	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Blocked	Samantha Loyd	blk Camryn McCollum, Graci Littlejohn	·
34	23-11	CHI ST	STONEH×3	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Casey McDermott	·
35	24-11	STONEH	STONEH×3	Kill	Rosa Smith	set Kristine Bakhad	·
36	25-11	STONEH	STONEH×3	Kill	Sammy Franco	set Rosa Smith	·
Set 4
1	0-1	STONEH	CHI ST×3	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Kristine Bakhad	+3.0
2	0-2	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Haley Herndon		+4.2
3	0-3	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Haley Herndon		+4.8
4	1-3	CHI ST	STONEH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+3.2
5	1-4	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+4.1
6	2-4	CHI ST	STONEH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+3.3
7	2-5	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+4.2
8	3-5	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Casey McDermott	+3.5
9	3-6	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		+4.4
10	4-6	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Sammy Franco	set Rosa Smith	+3.6
11	4-7	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		+4.5
12	5-7	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Addy Frye	set Rosa Smith	+3.7
13	6-7	STONEH	STONEH	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+4.6
14	6-8	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+4.4
15	7-8	CHI ST	STONEH×4	Blocked	Nina Mitchell	blk Sammy Franco, Abby Farrell	+3.7
16	8-8	STONEH	STONEH×4	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+4.4
17	9-8	STONEH	STONEH×4	Kill	Addy Frye	set Samantha Loyd	+4.0
18	10-8	STONEH	STONEH×4	Kill	Addy Frye	set Casey McDermott	+3.5
19	10-9	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+3.0
20	11-9	CHI ST	STONEH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+2.8
21	12-9	STONEH	STONEH	Blocked	Nayella George	blk Abby Farrell, Haley Herndon	+3.0
22	12-10	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Kristine Bakhad	+2.4
23	13-10	CHI ST	STONEH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+2.4
24	13-11	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+2.5
25	14-11	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+2.5
26	14-12	STONEH	CHI ST×4	Kill	Nayella George	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+2.6
27	14-13	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Blocked	Samantha Loyd	blk Nina Mitchell, Graci Littlejohn	+4.3
28	14-14	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Blocked	Sammy Franco	blk Graci Littlejohn, Jenesis Perrin	+5.6
29	14-15	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+7.0
30	15-15	CHI ST	STONEH×3	Blocked	Graci Littlejohn	blk Annabelle Svenson	+5.0
31	16-15	STONEH	STONEH×3	Kill	Sammy Franco	set Rosa Smith	+5.9
32	17-15	STONEH	STONEH×3	Kill	Annabelle Svenson	set Rosa Smith	+5.1
33	17-16	STONEH	CHI ST	Blocked	Addy Frye	blk Graci Littlejohn, Jenesis Perrin	+4.2
34	17-17	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Sammy Franco		+6.9
35	18-17	CHI ST	STONEH	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+5.4
36	18-18	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+6.1
37	19-18	CHI ST	STONEH×3	Kill	Abby Farrell	set Rosa Smith	+5.9
38	20-18	STONEH	STONEH×3	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+6.4
39	21-18	STONEH	STONEH×3	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+4.8
40	21-19	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+3.2
41	22-19	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Haley Herndon	set Casey McDermott	+4.0
42	23-19	STONEH	STONEH	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+3.0
43	23-20	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+1.3
44	24-20	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+2.1
45	24-21	STONEH	CHI ST×3	Serve err	Stonehill		+0.7
46	24-22	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Skye Riley	+2.4
47	24-23	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+6.2
48	25-23	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+10.6
Set 5
1	1-0	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+4.5
2	1-1	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+5.1
3	2-1	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Kristina Bishop	+4.7
4	2-2	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+5.4
5	2-3	CHI ST	CHI ST	Ace	Chicago St.	aced Kristina Bishop	+8.1
6	3-3	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Rosa Smith	+5.8
7	3-4	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+7.0
8	4-4	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Sammy Franco	set Rosa Smith	+6.1
9	4-5	STONEH	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+7.5
10	4-6	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Graci Littlejohn		+10.6
11	4-7	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Skye Riley	+11.6
12	5-7	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd		+7.2
13	5-8	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+10.1
14	5-9	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Haley Herndon		+12.1
15	6-9	CHI ST	STONEH×4	Kill	Addy Frye	set Casey McDermott	+6.6
16	7-9	STONEH	STONEH×4	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+10.0
17	8-9	STONEH	STONEH×4	Kill	Abby Farrell		+11.1
18	9-9	STONEH	STONEH×4	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+11.5
19	9-10	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		+11.3
20	10-10	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Casey McDermott	+9.9
21	10-11	STONEH	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+12.7
22	10-12	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Blocked	Annabelle Svenson	blk Rayon Thigpen	+18.1
23	10-13	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Haley Herndon		+17.6
24	11-13	CHI ST	STONEH	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Kristina Bishop	+7.7
25	11-14	STONEH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+15.5
26	12-14	CHI ST	STONEH×3	Kill	Samantha Loyd	set Rosa Smith	+6.0
27	13-14	STONEH	STONEH×3	Attack err	Nayella George		+15.2
28	14-14	STONEH	STONEH×3	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+29.9
29	14-15	STONEH	CHI ST	Serve err	Stonehill		+23.2
30	14-16	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Jenesis Perrin	+37.6

Score shown after each rally, Stonehill first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Chicago St. def. Stonehill 3–2

The upset: Chicago St., a 5% pick, over Stonehill.