Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 24, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Montana St. def. Idaho St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Idaho St. 57.6% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 24, 7:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Montana St. beat visiting Idaho St. 3-1 (25-16, 25-22, 19-25, 25-14) on Sat, Oct 24, 2026. Montana St.'s Joelie Spelts led with 17 kills, and Nicolette Noble added 14 digs.

Data through · final Oct 24

Set1234Sets
ID ST162225141
MONTST 252519253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Montana St. won it on serve.

The biggest single-rally swing was 5.9 points, and Idaho St.'s high was 55% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Pre-match, Idaho St. was RallyIQ's 58% pick.

Idaho St.Montana St.
  • Break %+11.4 pts
    35.947.3

    On serve: 44/93 against 28/78 (Idaho St. sideout 52.7%).

  • Hitting+.129
    .121.250

    59 kills, 23 errors vs 37 kills, 22 errors.

  • Longest run+1
    56

    Montana St. opened the set in the first set with 6 straight points for a 6–0 lead. That set ended 25–16.

Montana St. above 50Idaho St. belowMax swing 5.9%

Idaho St.Montana St.

Aces
Idaho St. 1·Montana St. 6
Serve err
Idaho St. 7·Montana St. 16
Blocks
Idaho St. 9·Montana St. 81 BS · 16 BA vs 4 BS · 8 BA
Digs
Idaho St. 51·Montana St. 51

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Montana St. above 50 · Idaho St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.9% MONTST rally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.9% to Montana St. — set 2, ID ST 22-24 MONTST . Kill by Karli Heidemann (set by Teagan Jaynes). MONTST win probability 74% → 80%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ID ST 50.3%49.7% MONTST

Idaho St. wins

3-0
12.6%
3-1
18.9%
3-2
18.8%

Montana St. wins

3-0
12.4%
3-1
18.6%
3-2
18.7%
ID ST break %
41.3% vs this opp
MONTST break %
41.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Karli Heidemann (set by Teagan Jaynes)

    Set 2 · ID ST 22-24 MONTST · MONTST 74% → 80%

  2. 02
    Alice StemanKill+5.0%

    Kill by Alice Steman (set by Teagan Jaynes)

    Set 2 · ID ST 21-23 MONTST · MONTST 72% → 77%

  3. 03
    Karli HeidemannAttack error+4.9%

    Attack error by Karli Heidemann

    Set 2 · ID ST 20-21 MONTST · ID ST 24% → 29%

  4. 04
    Lauren GreenyKill+4.7%

    Kill by Lauren Greeny (set by Teagan Jaynes)

    Set 2 · ID ST 22-25 MONTST · MONTST 80% → 84%

  5. 05
    Teagan JaynesKill+4.5%

    Kill by Teagan Jaynes (set by Afton Thomsen)

    Set 2 · ID ST 20-22 MONTST · MONTST 71% → 75%

  6. 06

    Annelie Wilson stuffed by Lauren Greeny & Alice Steman

    Set 2 · ID ST 14-16 MONTST · MONTST 67% → 71%

  7. 07
    Abby McClainAttack error+4.2%

    Attack error by Abby McClain

    Set 2 · ID ST 15-18 MONTST · MONTST 71% → 76%

  8. 08

    Karli Heidemann stuffed by Mia Walsh & Jaydin Watts

    Set 2 · ID ST 13-13 MONTST · ID ST 33% → 36%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
48529.10311010004211
45216.18810010153.58.5
46524.04220091010.56.5
44415.000000100215
2228.000000100213
2037-.4291000900000
4000–3031040000
4000–001210000
36110.500180150010.56.5
2408.50000000010.54.5
2207.286101200002
2000–001000000
1000–000100000
Team totals3722124.1213617516116977
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417124.6670012012219
414844.13610240111.515.5
410627.14832411102113
46314.214100201228
44112.250430370111.55.5
4000–121900002
4000–2131400001
35218.167000100005
3000–012100001
2325.200000000003
Team totals5923144.2505161651148894

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 ID ST · MONTST 6

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 ID STMONTST 6

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 5 ID STMONTST 4

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 ID STMONTST 3

Set 4

14-25

Longest run 3 ID STMONTST 5

Bars above the line = Montana St. leads, below = Idaho St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Idaho St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%10/23
43%6/14
2
45%10/22
33%5/15
3
67%8/12
36%5/14
4
53%8/15
33%4/12
5
78%7/9
27%3/11
6
50%6/12
42%5/12
All
53%49/93
36%28/78

Montana St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
77%10/13
56%10/18
2
53%9/17
44%8/18
3
75%9/12
53%10/19
4
67%8/12
43%6/14
5
67%8/12
38%5/13
6
50%6/12
45%5/11
All
64%50/78
47%44/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

171 rallies

#ID ST-MONTST SrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MONTST MONTST ×6KillJoelie Speltsset Kadence Marsh+2.6
20-2MONTST MONTST ×6KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.6
30-3MONTST MONTST ×6Attack errAshlyn Smith+2.6
40-4MONTST MONTST ×6BlockedMia Walshblk Joelie Spelts, Teagan Jaynes+2.4
50-5MONTST MONTST ×6KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+2.2
60-6MONTST MONTST ×6Attack errKadence Marsh+2.0
71-6MONTST ID STServe errAfton Thomsen+1.1
82-6ID STID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+1.9
92-7ID STMONTST Attack errMia Walsh+1.6
103-7MONTST ID ST×3KillAshlyn Smithset Kadence Marsh+1.3
114-7ID STID ST×3BlockedAlice Stemanblk Jaydin Watts+2.3
125-7ID STID ST×3BlockedKarli Heidemannblk Jaydin Watts, Mia Walsh+2.6
135-8ID STMONTST KillTeagan Jaynesset Lauren Greeny+2.0
146-8MONTST ID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Aspen Boice+1.8
156-9ID STMONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+2.0
166-10MONTST MONTST KillAlice Stemanset Teagan Jaynes+2.7
177-10MONTST ID STServe errKarli Heidemann+1.6
187-11ID STMONTST KillTeagan Jaynes+1.9
198-11MONTST ID STKillAbby McClainset Kadence Marsh+1.6
209-11ID STID STBlockedLauren Greenyblk Abby McClain, Ashlyn Smith+2.7
219-12ID STMONTST ×4BlockedAbby McClainblk Lauren Greeny, Joelie Spelts+2.2
229-13MONTST MONTST ×4KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+2.9
239-14MONTST MONTST ×4Attack errAbby McClain+2.4
249-15MONTST MONTST ×4KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+1.9
2510-15MONTST ID STServe errLauren Greeny+0.9
2610-16ID STMONTST KillElli Eskoset Lauren Greeny+1.3
2711-16MONTST ID STAttack errKarli Heidemann+0.9
2811-17ID STMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.3
2911-18MONTST MONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+1.2
3012-18MONTST ID STServe errKeely Culler+0.5
3112-19ID STMONTST Serve errAspen Boice+0.8
3212-20MONTST MONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+0.6
3313-20MONTST ID STServe errTeagan Jaynes+0.2
3413-21ID STMONTST Attack errAnnelie Wilson+0.4
3513-22MONTST MONTST Attack errAnnelie Wilson+0.2
3614-22MONTST ID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh·
3715-22ID STID STKillAbby McClainset Kadence Marsh+0.1
3815-23ID STMONTST KillElli Eskoset Teagan Jaynes+0.2
3916-23MONTST ID STKillAbby McClainset Kadence Marsh·
4016-24ID STMONTST Attack errKadence Marsh+0.1
4116-25MONTST MONTST KillElli Eskoset Teagan Jaynes·
Set 2
10-1ID STMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.9
20-2MONTST MONTST BlockedMia Walshblk Karli Heidemann, Alice Steman+2.8
31-2MONTST ID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Kadence Marsh+1.8
41-3ID STMONTST ×4Serve errAspen Boice+2.0
51-4MONTST MONTST ×4Attack errAnnelie Wilson+2.8
61-5MONTST MONTST ×4KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.7
71-6MONTST MONTST ×4KillKarli Heidemannset Nicolette Noble+2.5
82-6MONTST ID STServe errTeagan Jaynes+1.4
93-6ID STID STAttack errKarli Heidemann+2.4
103-7ID STMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+1.9
114-7MONTST ID STAttack errAlice Steman+1.7
125-7ID STID STBlockedLauren Greenyblk Abby McClain, Jaydin Watts+2.8
135-8ID STMONTST Attack errKadence Marsh+2.1
146-8MONTST ID STServe errNicolette Noble+1.9
156-9ID STMONTST KillElli Eskoset Teagan Jaynes+2.2
167-9MONTST ID STServe errLauren Greeny+1.9
177-10ID STMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+2.2
187-11MONTST MONTST BlockedMia Walshblk Teagan Jaynes+3.0
198-11MONTST ID STKillAshlyn Smithset Kadence Marsh+1.7
208-12ID STMONTST Attack errAshlyn Smith+2.1
218-13MONTST MONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.6
229-13MONTST ID ST×5KillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+1.4
2310-13ID STID ST×5Attack errTeagan Jaynes+2.6
2411-13ID STID ST×5KillJaydin Watts+3.1
2512-13ID STID ST×5BlockedKarli Heidemannblk Mia Walsh, Jaydin Watts+3.6
2613-13ID STID ST×5BlockedKarli Heidemannblk Mia Walsh, Jaydin Watts+3.9
2713-14ID STMONTST KillAlice Stemanset Teagan Jaynes+2.8
2814-14MONTST ID STKillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+2.7
2914-15ID STMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.9
3014-16MONTST MONTST BlockedAnnelie Wilsonblk Lauren Greeny, Alice Steman+4.3
3115-16MONTST ID STAttack errElli Esko+2.7
3215-17ID STMONTST KillLauren Greenyset Kadence Marsh+3.1
3315-18MONTST MONTST Attack errAbby McClain+4.2
3416-18MONTST ID STKillNora Waddoupsset Mia Walsh+2.3
3516-19ID STMONTST Serve errBrooke Christoffersen+3.0
3616-20MONTST MONTST KillJoelie Spelts+3.5
3717-20MONTST ID STServe errLauren Greeny+1.6
3817-21ID STMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+2.4
3918-21MONTST ID ST×3KillMia Walshset Aspen Boice+1.4
4019-21ID STID ST×3BlockedJoelie Speltsblk Annelie Wilson, Ashlyn Smith+3.3
4120-21ID STID ST×3Attack errKarli Heidemann+4.9
4220-22ID STMONTST KillTeagan Jaynesset Afton Thomsen+4.5
4321-22MONTST ID STKillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+3.4
4421-23ID STMONTST KillAlice Stemanset Teagan Jaynes+5.0
4522-23MONTST ID STKillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+3.4
4622-24ID STMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+5.9
4722-25MONTST MONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+4.7
Set 3
11-0MONTST ID STKillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+1.3
21-1ID STMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.3
31-2MONTST MONTST AceKeely Culleraced Aspen Boice+2.0
42-2MONTST ID STServe errKeely Culler+1.4
52-3ID STMONTST Attack errAnnelie Wilson+1.4
63-3MONTST ID STServe errTeagan Jaynes+1.4
74-3ID STID STKillNora Waddoupsset Jaydin Watts+2.1
84-4ID STMONTST Attack errMia Walsh+1.4
94-5MONTST MONTST KillElli Eskoset Teagan Jaynes+2.2
105-5MONTST ID STServe errKarli Heidemann+1.4
116-5ID STID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Nora Waddoups+2.2
126-6ID STMONTST Serve errJenna Werbelow+1.5
136-7MONTST MONTST AceNicolette Nobleaced Annelie Wilson+2.3
147-7MONTST ID STKillIsabella Beattyset Nora Waddoups+1.5
158-7ID STID STBlockedLauren Greenyblk Isabella Beatty, Mia Walsh+2.3
168-8ID STMONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+1.6
179-8MONTST ID STAttack errLauren Greeny+1.6
1810-8ID STID STKillNora Waddoupsset Annelie Wilson+2.3
1910-9ID STMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.5
2011-9MONTST ID STKillNora Waddoupsset Annelie Wilson+1.6
2111-10ID STMONTST Serve errNora Waddoups+1.5
2212-10MONTST ID STAttack errKarli Heidemann+1.7
2313-10ID STID STAceMia Walshaced Lauren Greeny+2.3
2413-11ID STMONTST KillAlice Stemanset Teagan Jaynes+1.4
2514-11MONTST ID STKillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+1.6
2615-11ID STID STAttack errAlice Steman+2.0
2715-12ID STMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+1.1
2816-12MONTST ID STKillIsabella Beattyset Nora Waddoups+1.4
2916-13ID STMONTST KillAlice Stemanset Teagan Jaynes+1.1
3017-13MONTST ID STServe errNicolette Noble+1.4
3118-13ID STID STKillIsabella Beattyset Nora Waddoups+1.5
3218-14ID STMONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+0.7
3319-14MONTST ID ST×4Serve errLauren Greeny+1.0
3420-14ID STID ST×4KillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+1.0
3521-14ID STID ST×4Attack errElli Esko+0.5
3622-14ID STID ST×4KillAnnelie Wilsonset Nora Waddoups+0.2
3722-15ID STMONTST ×3KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+0.1
3822-16MONTST MONTST ×3AceAfton Thomsenaced Jenna Werbelow+0.2
3922-17MONTST MONTST ×3Attack errJaydin Watts+0.3
4023-17MONTST ID STKillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+0.4
4123-18ID STMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+0.1
4223-19MONTST MONTST BlockedJaydin Wattsblk Alice Steman+0.4
4324-19MONTST ID STServe errJoelie Spelts+0.6
4425-19ID STID STAttack errLauren Greeny+0.2
Set 4
10-1ID STMONTST ×4KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+2.5
20-2MONTST MONTST ×4AceLauren Greenyaced Aspen Boice+3.8
30-3MONTST MONTST ×4AceLauren Greenyaced Aspen Boice+3.7
40-4MONTST MONTST ×4KillElli Tuftoset Lauren Greeny+3.5
51-4MONTST ID STAttack errElli Tufto+2.1
61-5ID STMONTST ×3KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+2.4
71-6MONTST MONTST ×3KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+3.3
81-7MONTST MONTST ×3AceAfton Thomsenaced Aspen Boice+2.8
92-7MONTST ID STKillAbby McClainset Nora Waddoups+1.6
102-8ID STMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.0
112-9MONTST MONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Alice Steman+2.4
123-9MONTST ID STKillNora Waddoupsset Gracie Vohs+1.2
133-10ID STMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+1.6
143-11MONTST MONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+1.8
154-11MONTST ID STKillGracie Vohsset Nora Waddoups+0.9
165-11ID STID STKillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+1.7
175-12ID STMONTST Serve errGracie Vohs+1.6
186-12MONTST ID ST×3KillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+1.1
197-12ID STID ST×3Attack errLauren Greeny+2.2
208-12ID STID ST×3BlockedElli Tuftoblk Nora Waddoups, Jaydin Watts+2.8
218-13ID STMONTST Serve errAspen Boice+2.4
228-14MONTST MONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+2.8
239-14MONTST ID STServe errNicolette Noble+1.4
249-15ID STMONTST KillElli Tuftoset Karli Heidemann+1.9
2510-15MONTST ID STKillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+1.3
2610-16ID STMONTST ×5KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+1.9
2710-17MONTST MONTST ×5KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+1.9
2810-18MONTST MONTST ×5KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.2
2910-19MONTST MONTST ×5KillJoelie Speltsset Joelie Spelts+0.7
3010-20MONTST MONTST ×5Attack errAbby McClain+0.3
3111-20MONTST ID STKillNora Waddoupsset Aspen Boice+0.1
3211-21ID STMONTST KillTeagan Jaynesset Nicolette Noble+0.2
3312-21MONTST ID STKillIsabella Beattyset Nora Waddoups+0.1
3413-21ID STID STAttack errKarli Heidemann+0.2
3513-22ID STMONTST ×3KillAlice Stemanset Teagan Jaynes+0.2
3613-23MONTST MONTST ×3KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+0.1
3713-24MONTST MONTST ×3BlockedNora Waddoupsblk Karli Heidemann·
3814-24MONTST ID STKillGracie Vohsset Nora Waddoups·
3914-25ID STMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Nicolette Noble·

Score shown after each rally, Idaho St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).