Final · 4 setsTue, Oct 27, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Weber St. def. Idaho St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Weber St. 53.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 27, 6:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Weber St. beat visiting Idaho St. 3-1 (25-17, 19-25, 25-21, 25-22) on Tue, Oct 27, 2026. Weber St.'s Lexie Carlson led with 17 kills, and Marly Pratt added 16 digs.

Data through · final Oct 27

Set1234Sets
ID ST172521221
WEB ST251925253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Weber St. trailed 4–8 in the first and took that set, dropped the second, and won the match 3–1.

The match turned twice. Numbers are Weber St.'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave Weber St. 53% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Idaho St. 12–10 Weber St.

    9 straight Weber St. points turned a 10–12 deficit into a 19–12 lead. The match swung to Weber St.

    Weber St. 47% → 71%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Idaho St. 18–17 Weber St.

    Down 17–18, Weber St. scored 5 straight to lead 22–18.

    Weber St. 71% → 97%

Weber St. above 50Idaho St. belowMax swing 6.3%

Idaho St.Weber St.

Sideout %
Idaho St. 51.6·Weber St. 57.0
Break %
Idaho St. 43.0·Weber St. 48.4
Hitting
Idaho St. .182·Weber St. .236
Longest run
Idaho St. 5·Weber St. 9

Rose Moore
14 kills on .275, 16 points; 3 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Weber St. above 50 · Idaho St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.3% WEB STrally 179 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.3% to Weber St. — set 4, ID ST 18-19 WEB ST. Kill by Maggie Larsen (set by Morgan Pratt). WEB ST win probability 75% → 82%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ID ST 42.3%57.7% WEB ST

Idaho St. wins

3-0
9.5%
3-1
15.6%
3-2
17.2%

Weber St. wins

3-0
16.0%
3-1
21.9%
3-2
19.7%
ID ST break %
42.2% vs this opp
WEB ST break %
43.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Maggie LarsenKill+6.3%

    Kill by Maggie Larsen (set by Morgan Pratt)

    Set 4 · ID ST 18-19 WEB ST · WEB ST 75% → 82%

  2. 02
    Rose MooreAce+6.1%

    Ace by Rose Moore on Ashlyn Smith

    Set 4 · ID ST 18-20 WEB ST · WEB ST 82% → 88%

  3. 03

    Maggie Larsen stuffed by Jaydin Watts & Abby McClain

    Set 4 · ID ST 17-16 WEB ST · ID ST 23% → 29%

  4. 04
    Ava BricknerAttack error+5.3%

    Attack error by Ava Brickner

    Set 4 · ID ST 18-21 WEB ST · WEB ST 88% → 93%

  5. 05

    Maggie Larsen stuffed by Jaydin Watts & Abby McClain

    Set 4 · ID ST 16-16 WEB ST · ID ST 18% → 23%

  6. 06
    Ava BricknerKill+4.5%

    Kill by Ava Brickner (set by Nora Waddoups)

    Set 4 · ID ST 15-16 WEB ST · ID ST 13% → 18%

  7. 07
    Jaydin WattsKill+4.4%

    Kill by Jaydin Watts (set by Nora Waddoups)

    Set 4 · ID ST 18-17 WEB ST · ID ST 25% → 29%

  8. 08
    Lexie CarlsonKill+4.3%

    Kill by Lexie Carlson (set by Morgan Pratt)

    Set 4 · ID ST 21-24 WEB ST · WEB ST 93% → 98%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413422.4090101028620
412938.07910114102113
47421.14311172010.58.5
45412.08300000010.55.5
4206.3333520110031.55.5
11312-.167001000001
4000–8112410001
4000–011100001
4000–002510000
311323.34800030031.512.5
2000–001310000
1318.250000100003
1001.000000011011
1000–500000000
Team totals5428143.18250687073181285
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417547.2550004100017
414340.2750107002116
47213.3850002024411
47433.09121263010.58.5
45111.364024001018
4113.000281260010.52.5
4000–010710001
4000–5101600001
4000–1000100000
3001.000000100000
3000–000110000
1000–000100000
1000–000000000
Team totals5116148.236457852638794

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Idaho St. vs Weber St.

Season series · Weber St. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 ID ST · WEB ST 9

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 4 ID STWEB ST 9

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 ID STWEB ST 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 3 ID STWEB ST 5

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 5 ID STWEB ST 5

Bars above the line = Weber St. leads, below = Idaho St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Idaho St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
36%9/25
38%5/13
2
67%8/12
50%9/18
3
57%8/14
53%9/17
4
57%8/14
33%4/12
5
53%8/15
38%5/13
6
54%7/13
38%5/13
All
52%48/93
43%37/86

Weber St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%10/19
61%14/23
2
53%8/15
53%9/17
3
47%8/17
38%5/13
4
80%8/10
27%3/11
5
62%8/13
58%11/19
6
58%7/12
30%3/10
All
57%49/86
48%45/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

179 rallies

#ID ST-WEB STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1WEB STWEB STKillLexie Carlsonset Addison Eastwood+2.5
21-1WEB STID STKillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+1.8
31-2ID STWEB STAttack errMia Walsh+1.9
42-2WEB STID ST×4KillAnnelie Wilsonset Nora Waddoups+1.9
53-2ID STID ST×4KillJaydin Watts+2.6
64-2ID STID ST×4BlockedRose Mooreblk Annelie Wilson, Jaydin Watts+2.6
75-2ID STID ST×4BlockedSophia Sparrowblk Jaydin Watts+2.5
85-3ID STWEB STKillMaggie Larsenset Addison Eastwood+1.7
95-4WEB STWEB STAttack errAnnelie Wilson+2.6
106-4WEB STID ST×3KillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+2.0
117-4ID STID ST×3KillAnnelie Wilsonset Nora Waddoups+2.6
128-4ID STID ST×3Bad setAddison Eastwood+2.5
138-5ID STWEB STKillMaggie Larsenset Addison Eastwood+1.6
149-5WEB STID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Nora Waddoups+1.9
159-6ID STWEB STServe errAnnelie Wilson+1.6
169-7WEB STWEB STAttack errJaydin Watts+2.5
1710-7WEB STID STKillGracie Vohsset Nora Waddoups+2.1
1811-7ID STID STKillNora Waddoupsset Mia Walsh+2.6
1911-8ID STWEB ST×3KillLexie Carlsonset Marly Pratt+1.7
2011-9WEB STWEB ST×3BlockedGracie Vohsblk Sophia Sparrow, Addison Eastwood+2.6
2111-10WEB STWEB ST×3Attack errGracie Vohs+3.0
2212-10WEB STID STServe errZiya Munyer+2.4
2312-11ID STWEB ST×9KillRose Mooreset Addison Eastwood+2.3
2412-12WEB STWEB ST×9KillSophia Sparrow+3.3
2512-13WEB STWEB ST×9AceAddison Eastwoodaced Mia Walsh+3.5
2612-14WEB STWEB ST×9Attack errMia Walsh+3.4
2712-15WEB STWEB ST×9Attack errIsabella Beatty+3.2
2812-16WEB STWEB ST×9BlockedIsabella Beattyblk Sophia Sparrow+2.7
2912-17WEB STWEB ST×9Attack errMia Walsh+2.2
3012-18WEB STWEB ST×9Attack errGracie Vohs+1.6
3112-19WEB STWEB ST×9KillRose Mooreset Addison Eastwood+1.0
3213-19WEB STID STKillMia Walshset Aspen Boice+0.4
3313-20ID STWEB STServe errGracie Vohs+0.7
3414-20WEB STID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Nora Waddoups+0.4
3514-21ID STWEB STKillMaggie Larsenset Addison Eastwood+0.6
3615-21WEB STID STAttack errZiya Munyer+0.3
3715-22ID STWEB STKillMaggie Larsenset Addison Eastwood+0.5
3816-22WEB STID STBlockedMaggie Larsenblk Jaydin Watts, Nora Waddoups+0.2
3916-23ID STWEB STKillAddison Eastwoodset Maggie Larsen+0.4
4016-24WEB STWEB STKillLexie Carlsonset Morgan Pratt+0.2
4117-24WEB STID STServe errMaggie Larsen·
4217-25ID STWEB STKillLexie Carlsonset Marly Pratt·
Set 2
11-0ID STID STKillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+2.4
22-0ID STID STKillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+2.4
32-1ID STWEB ST×3KillSophia Sparrowset Addison Eastwood+1.7
42-2WEB STWEB ST×3BlockedAbby McClainblk Sophia Sparrow, Maggie Larsen+2.4
52-3WEB STWEB ST×3KillSophia Sparrowset Addison Eastwood+2.5
63-3WEB STID STKillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+1.9
73-4ID STWEB STServe errClaudia Antcliff+1.9
83-5WEB STWEB STKillZiya Munyer+2.5
94-5WEB STID STKillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+1.8
105-5ID STID STAceBrooke Christoffersenaced Maggie Larsen+2.6
115-6ID STWEB STKillZiya Munyerset Addison Eastwood+2.0
125-7WEB STWEB STAttack errAnnelie Wilson+2.6
136-7WEB STID STKillIsabella Beattyset Nora Waddoups+1.9
147-7ID STID STKillNora Waddoupsset Addison Eastwood+2.7
157-8ID STWEB STKillMaggie Larsenset Addison Eastwood+2.1
168-8WEB STID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Nora Waddoups+2.1
179-8ID STID STKillAbby McClainset Nora Waddoups+2.9
189-9ID STWEB STKillLexie Carlsonset Addison Eastwood+2.2
1910-9WEB STID ST×3Serve errZiya Munyer+2.3
2011-9ID STID ST×3KillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+3.0
2112-9ID STID ST×3KillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+2.9
2212-10ID STWEB STBlockedJaydin Wattsblk Sophia Sparrow+1.9
2313-10WEB STID STKillAbby McClainset Aspen Boice+2.2
2413-11ID STWEB STKillSophia Sparrowset Addison Eastwood+2.0
2514-11WEB STID STKillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+2.3
2614-12ID STWEB STKillMaggie Larsenset Addison Eastwood+2.0
2715-12WEB STID STKillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+2.4
2815-13ID STWEB STKillRose Mooreset Addison Eastwood+2.1
2916-13WEB STID STKillIsabella Beattyset Nora Waddoups+2.5
3016-14ID STWEB STServe errMia Walsh+2.1
3116-15WEB STWEB STAceMaggie Larsenaced Claudia Antcliff+3.4
3217-15WEB STID ST×4KillIsabella Beattyset Nora Waddoups+2.9
3318-15ID STID ST×4BlockedLexie Carlsonblk Isabella Beatty, Nora Waddoups+3.6
3419-15ID STID ST×4KillIsabella Beattyset Nora Waddoups+3.0
3520-15ID STID ST×4AceAnnelie Wilsonaced Reagan Williams+2.2
3620-16ID STWEB STKillZiya Munyerset Morgan Pratt+1.0
3720-17WEB STWEB STAceZiya Munyeraced Annelie Wilson+2.1
3821-17WEB STID STKillAbby McClainset Annelie Wilson+2.3
3922-17ID STID STBlockedLexie Carlsonblk Nora Waddoups, Jaydin Watts+2.0
4022-18ID STWEB STKillLexie Carlsonset Marly Pratt+0.7
4122-19WEB STWEB STKillLexie Carlsonset Addison Eastwood+1.7
4223-19WEB STID ST×3Serve errAddison Eastwood+2.1
4324-19ID STID ST×3KillAbby McClainset Aspen Boice+1.4
4425-19ID STID ST×3KillAbby McClain+0.3
Set 3
10-1WEB STWEB STKillRose Mooreset Addison Eastwood+3.3
21-1WEB STID STKillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+2.4
32-1ID STID STKillAbby McClainset Aspen Boice+3.4
42-2ID STWEB ST×4KillSophia Sparrowset Addison Eastwood+2.5
52-3WEB STWEB ST×4BlockedAbby McClainblk Sophia Sparrow, Rose Moore+3.4
62-4WEB STWEB ST×4AceKatelynn Albanoaced Annelie Wilson+3.4
72-5WEB STWEB ST×4KillRose Mooreset Addison Eastwood+3.3
83-5WEB STID STKillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+2.3
93-6ID STWEB ST×3KillRose Mooreset Addison Eastwood+2.5
103-7WEB STWEB ST×3Attack errJaydin Watts+3.1
113-8WEB STWEB ST×3AceMarly Prattaced Aspen Boice+2.7
124-8WEB STID STKillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+1.7
134-9ID STWEB STAttack errMia Walsh+2.0
145-9WEB STID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Aspen Boice+1.7
156-9ID STID STAttack errMaggie Larsen+2.8
166-10ID STWEB ST×5Attack errMia Walsh+2.4
176-11WEB STWEB ST×5BlockedAnnelie Wilsonblk Ziya Munyer+2.8
186-12WEB STWEB ST×5KillLexie Carlsonset Addison Eastwood+2.3
196-13WEB STWEB ST×5Attack errIsabella Beatty+1.8
206-14WEB STWEB ST×5KillLexie Carlsonset Marly Pratt+1.3
217-14WEB STID STServe errMaggie Larsen+0.7
227-15ID STWEB STServe errJenna Werbelow+0.9
238-15WEB STID STServe errZiya Munyer+0.6
248-16ID STWEB STAttack errAbby McClain+0.9
259-16WEB STID ST×3KillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+0.6
2610-16ID STID ST×3KillAbby McClainset Aspen Boice+1.1
2711-16ID STID ST×3KillJaydin Watts+1.6
2811-17ID STWEB STKillLexie Carlsonset Addison Eastwood+1.6
2912-17WEB STID STKillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+1.1
3012-18ID STWEB STServe errClaudia Antcliff+1.6
3112-19WEB STWEB STKillRose Moore+1.4
3213-19WEB STID STKillAnnelie Wilsonset Aspen Boice+0.6
3314-19ID STID STAceJaydin Wattsaced Katelynn Albano+1.3
3414-20ID STWEB STAttack errMia Walsh+1.4
3514-21WEB STWEB STKillRose Mooreset Addison Eastwood+1.1
3615-21WEB STID STKillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+0.4
3715-22ID STWEB STKillZiya Munyerset Addison Eastwood+0.7
3816-22WEB STID STKillIsabella Beattyset Nora Waddoups+0.3
3916-23ID STWEB STKillLexie Carlsonset Morgan Pratt+0.5
4017-23WEB STID STServe errZiya Munyer+0.2
4118-23ID STID STAceAspen Boiceaced Lexie Carlson+0.4
4218-24ID STWEB STKillSophia Sparrowset Morgan Pratt+0.6
4319-24WEB STID ST×3BlockedLexie Carlsonblk Jaydin Watts, Mia Walsh+0.1
4420-24ID STID ST×3AceNora Waddoupsaced Maggie Larsen+0.4
4521-24ID STID ST×3KillAbby McClainset Nora Waddoups+1.0
4621-25ID STWEB STKillRose Mooreset Marly Pratt+1.7
Set 4
10-1ID STWEB ST×3KillLexie Carlsonset Maggie Larsen+2.4
20-2WEB STWEB ST×3KillSophia Sparrow+3.2
30-3WEB STWEB ST×3Attack errJaydin Watts+3.0
41-3WEB STID STServe errAddison Eastwood+2.1
52-3ID STID STKillJaydin Wattsset Kadence Marsh+3.1
62-4ID STWEB STKillLexie Carlsonset Addison Eastwood+2.5
73-4WEB STID STKillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+2.4
84-4ID STID STBlockedSophia Sparrowblk Jaydin Watts+3.4
94-5ID STWEB STKillRose Mooreset Addison Eastwood+2.6
104-6WEB STWEB STAttack errAnnelie Wilson+3.5
115-6WEB STID STKillAva Bricknerset Kadence Marsh+2.5
125-7ID STWEB STServe errBrooke Christoffersen+2.6
136-7WEB STID STKillAbby McClainset Kadence Marsh+2.5
146-8ID STWEB STKillRose Mooreset Addison Eastwood+2.7
157-8WEB STID STAttack errAddison Eastwood+2.6
167-9ID STWEB ST×4KillLexie Carlsonset Addison Eastwood+2.8
177-10WEB STWEB ST×4Attack errMia Walsh+3.6
187-11WEB STWEB ST×4AceZiya Munyeraced Jenna Werbelow+3.2
197-12WEB STWEB ST×4Attack errIsabella Beatty+2.8
208-12WEB STID STKillMia Walshset Kadence Marsh+1.7
218-13ID STWEB ST×3Serve errAspen Boice+2.1
228-14WEB STWEB ST×3KillLexie Carlsonset Addison Eastwood+2.2
238-15WEB STWEB ST×3BlockedMia Walshblk Sophia Sparrow, Rose Moore+1.7
249-15WEB STID ST×4KillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+0.9
2510-15ID STID ST×4BlockedRose Mooreblk Jaydin Watts, Abby McClain+1.6
2611-15ID STID ST×4BlockedLexie Carlsonblk Mia Walsh, Jaydin Watts+2.2
2712-15ID STID ST×4AceNora Waddoupsaced Maggie Larsen+2.9
2812-16ID STWEB STKillLexie Carlsonset Addison Eastwood+2.6
2913-16WEB STID ST×5KillMia Walshset Nora Waddoups+2.1
3014-16ID STID ST×5KillAbby McClainset Aspen Boice+3.7
3115-16ID STID ST×5KillAva Bricknerset Nora Waddoups+4.5
3216-16ID STID ST×5BlockedMaggie Larsenblk Jaydin Watts, Abby McClain+5.1
3317-16ID STID ST×5BlockedMaggie Larsenblk Jaydin Watts, Abby McClain+5.5
3417-17ID STWEB STKillRose Mooreset Morgan Pratt+4.0
3518-17WEB STID STKillJaydin Wattsset Nora Waddoups+4.4
3618-18ID STWEB ST×5KillZiya Munyerset Morgan Pratt+4.3
3718-19WEB STWEB ST×5KillMaggie Larsenset Morgan Pratt+6.3
3818-20WEB STWEB ST×5AceRose Mooreaced Ashlyn Smith+6.1
3918-21WEB STWEB ST×5Attack errAva Brickner+5.3
4018-22WEB STWEB ST×5KillRose Mooreset Morgan Pratt+3.8
4119-22WEB STID STKillAbby McClainset Nora Waddoups+1.6
4219-23ID STWEB STKillRose Mooreset Morgan Pratt+2.7
4320-23WEB STID STKillAva Bricknerset Nora Waddoups+1.3
4421-23ID STID STBlockedRose Mooreblk Ashlyn Smith+3.3
4521-24ID STWEB STKillLexie Carlsonset Morgan Pratt+4.3
4622-24WEB STID STAttack errLexie Carlson+1.7
4722-25ID STWEB STAttack errMia Walsh+4.0

Score shown after each rally, Idaho St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).