FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayCUSA

3:0

HomeOVC

Western Ky. def. Southeast Mo. St. 3–0

(25-23, 25-13, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
W KY	25	25	25	3
SEMO	23	13	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SEMO above 50 · W KY below

Biggest swing: 4.4% to Western Ky. — set 1, W KY 21-20 SEMO. Western Ky. ace on Nina Schuberth. SEMO win probability 24% → 19%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

W KY 79.2%20.8% SEMO

Western Ky. wins

3-0

30.7%

3-1

30.0%

3-2

18.5%

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0

3.4%

3-1

7.0%

3-2

10.4%

W KY break %: 43.9% vs this opp
SEMO break %: 37.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
W KY serverAce+4.4%
Western Ky. ace on Nina Schuberth
Set 1 · W KY 21-20 SEMO · W KY 76% → 81%
02
Marin JohnsonAttack error+4.4%
Marin Johnson stuffed by Sonja Laaksonen
Set 1 · W KY 23-21 SEMO · W KY 81% → 85%
03
Kaira KnoxKill+4.3%
Kill by Kaira Knox (set by Kate Rush)
Set 1 · W KY 25-23 SEMO · W KY 85% → 89%
04
Kaira KnoxAttack error+4.1%
Attack error by Kaira Knox
Set 1 · W KY 18-19 SEMO · SEMO 22% → 26%
05
Kaira KnoxKill+3.4%
Kill by Kaira Knox (set by Kate Rush)
Set 1 · W KY 24-22 SEMO · W KY 83% → 87%
06
Kaira KnoxKill+3.4%
Kill by Kaira Knox (set by Jacey Young)
Set 1 · W KY 22-21 SEMO · W KY 78% → 81%
07
Ellie BurnsAttack error+3.4%
Ellie Burns stuffed by Kate Rush
Set 1 · W KY 17-17 SEMO · W KY 74% → 77%
08
Lucy ArndtAttack error+3.4%
Lucy Arndt stuffed by Faith Young & Kate Rush
Set 1 · W KY 18-17 SEMO · W KY 77% → 80%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Western Ky.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Kate RushS	3	7	0	13	.538	22	5	3	6	0	0	2	1	13
5Kaira KnoxOH	3	11	1	16	.625	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	11
22Faith YoungOH	3	5	1	13	.308	1	0	2	4	0	0	2	1	6
16Sonja LaaksonenOH	3	3	3	15	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
21Eliza McKnightOH	3	3	1	12	.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
3Kennedy CherryL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	3	7	1	0	0	0	0
17Alivia SkidmoreOH	3	7	3	23	.174	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
8Cali FosterL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
2Tayler BaronL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	3	11	0	0	0	0	0
13Kendall MellerOH	2	2	0	4	.500	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	3
18Aubrey SearsOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Camila AdamsDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Izzie DelacherS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	9	98	.296	26	6	15	36	1	1	6	4	75

Southeast Mo. St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Lucy ArndtOH	3	9	4	30	.167	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	1	10
4Marin JohnsonOH	3	8	4	23	.174	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
12Reagan NelsonOH	3	8	3	23	.217	1	0	4	8	0	0	0	0	8
24Alaina LesterMB	3	2	0	7	.286	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	3
19Jacey YoungMB	3	1	2	6	-.167	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
11Megan HolderS	3	0	1	4	-.250	12	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
5Alayna ChristnerOH	3	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
1Nina SchuberthL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	4	1	2	11	2	0	0	0	1
6Ellie BurnsS	3	0	2	3	-.667	9	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
8Holland GuilliamsL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Brooklyn RitterS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	17	103	.117	26	1	13	37	6	1	4	3	56

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 W KY · SEMO 3

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 W KYSEMO 3

Set 2

25-13

Longest run 5 W KYSEMO 3

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 W KYSEMO 3

Bars above the line = Southeast Mo. St. leads, below = Western Ky. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Western Ky.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	50%7/14
2	64%7/11	59%10/17
3	70%7/10	42%5/12
4	55%6/11	14%1/7
5	71%5/7	58%7/12
6	63%5/8	58%7/12
All	67%38/57	50%37/74

Southeast Mo. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	40%8/20	25%2/8
2	54%7/13	33%4/12
3	64%7/11	22%2/9
4	63%5/8	30%3/10
5	45%5/11	55%6/11
6	45%5/11	29%2/7
All	50%37/74	33%19/57

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

131 rallies

Rally log

#	W KY-SEMO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Jacey Young	set Lucy Arndt	+1.4
2	0-2	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Marin Johnson	+2.1
3	1-2	SEMO	W KY	Serve err	SEMO server		+1.3
4	1-3	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+1.5
5	2-3	SEMO	W KY	Serve err	SEMO server		+1.3
6	2-4	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Nina Schuberth	+1.5
7	2-5	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Nina Schuberth	+2.3
8	3-5	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+1.4
9	3-6	W KY	SEMO×3	Serve err	W KY server		+1.6
10	3-7	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+2.3
11	3-8	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+2.2
12	4-8	SEMO	W KY	Serve err	SEMO server		+1.2
13	4-9	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Reagan Nelson	+1.6
14	5-9	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+1.3
15	6-9	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Alayna Christner		+2.1
16	6-10	W KY	SEMO×3	Serve err	W KY server		+1.8
17	6-11	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Faith Young		+2.3
18	6-12	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+2.1
19	7-12	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kate Rush	set Tayler Baron	+1.0
20	8-12	W KY	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen		+1.9
21	8-13	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+1.7
22	9-13	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+1.3
23	10-13	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+2.2
24	10-14	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+1.9
25	11-14	SEMO	W KY×3	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+1.5
26	12-14	W KY	W KY×3	Bad set	Megan Holder		+2.5
27	13-14	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+2.8
28	13-15	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+2.3
29	13-16	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Nina Schuberth	+3.2
30	14-16	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+1.8
31	14-17	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+2.3
32	15-17	SEMO	W KY×4	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+1.8
33	16-17	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Kate Rush	set Ellie Burns	+3.1
34	17-17	W KY	W KY×4	Attack err	Ellie Burns	blk Kate Rush	+3.4
35	18-17	W KY	W KY×4	Attack err	Lucy Arndt	blk Faith Young, Kate Rush	+3.4
36	18-18	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+2.4
37	18-19	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Kaira Knox		+4.1
38	19-19	SEMO	W KY	Serve err	SEMO server		+2.6
39	19-20	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+3.1
40	20-20	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kate Rush		+2.9
41	21-20	W KY	W KY	Ace	W KY server	aced Nina Schuberth	+4.4
42	21-21	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+3.1
43	22-21	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Jacey Young	+3.4
44	23-21	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Marin Johnson	blk Sonja Laaksonen	+4.4
45	23-22	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+2.2
46	24-22	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+3.4
47	24-23	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+1.9
48	25-23	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+4.3
Set 2
1	1-0	SEMO	W KY×3	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.9
2	2-0	W KY	W KY×3	Ace	W KY server	aced Team	+1.2
3	3-0	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Faith Young	+1.1
4	3-1	W KY	SEMO×3	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen	blk Alaina Lester	+0.7
5	3-2	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+1.2
6	3-3	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen		+1.4
7	4-3	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+1.0
8	5-3	W KY	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+1.3
9	5-4	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+0.9
10	6-4	SEMO	W KY	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.9
11	7-4	W KY	W KY	Ace	W KY server	aced Lucy Arndt	+1.2
12	7-5	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.8
13	8-5	SEMO	W KY	Attack err	Megan Holder		+0.8
14	8-6	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.8
15	8-7	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+1.4
16	9-7	SEMO	W KY×3	Serve err	SEMO server		+1.0
17	10-7	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+1.3
18	11-7	W KY	W KY×3	Attack err	Marin Johnson		+1.1
19	11-8	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.7
20	11-9	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Nina Schuberth	+1.2
21	12-9	SEMO	W KY	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.9
22	13-9	W KY	W KY	Kill	Kate Rush	set Ellie Burns	+1.1
23	13-10	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.7
24	14-10	SEMO	W KY×5	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.8
25	15-10	W KY	W KY×5	Ace	W KY server	aced Team	+0.9
26	16-10	W KY	W KY×5	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+0.6
27	17-10	W KY	W KY×5	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Alayna Christner	+0.4
28	18-10	W KY	W KY×5	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.2
29	18-11	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.1
30	19-11	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.1
31	20-11	W KY	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.1
32	20-12	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Alayna Christner	set Ellie Burns	+0.0
33	21-12	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kendall Meller	set Kate Rush	+0.1
34	21-13	W KY	SEMO	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore		+0.0
35	22-13	SEMO	W KY×4	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Izzie Delacher	+0.0
36	23-13	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Alivia Skidmore		+0.0
37	24-13	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Cali Foster	+0.0
38	25-13	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	W KY	W KY×4	Ace	W KY server	aced Nina Schuberth	+0.7
2	2-0	W KY	W KY×4	Attack err	Marin Johnson	blk Kendall Meller	+0.6
3	3-0	W KY	W KY×4	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+0.6
4	4-0	W KY	W KY×4	Ace	W KY server	aced Team	+0.5
5	4-1	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.3
6	4-2	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+0.5
7	5-2	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kendall Meller	set Kate Rush	+0.4
8	6-2	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Marin Johnson		+0.5
9	6-3	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+0.3
10	7-3	SEMO	W KY	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.3
11	7-4	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.3
12	8-4	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.3
13	8-5	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Ellie Burns	+0.3
14	8-6	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Eliza McKnight	blk Lucy Arndt	+0.6
15	9-6	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.4
16	9-7	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.4
17	10-7	SEMO	W KY×3	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.4
18	11-7	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+0.6
19	12-7	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Kate Rush	set Ellie Burns	+0.4
20	12-8	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Reagan Nelson	+0.3
21	13-8	SEMO	W KY	Attack err	Jacey Young		+0.3
22	13-9	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+0.3
23	14-9	SEMO	W KY	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+0.3
24	14-10	W KY	SEMO×3	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+0.3
25	14-11	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen	blk Alaina Lester, Marin Johnson	+0.5
26	14-12	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	SEMO server	aced Kennedy Cherry	+0.7
27	15-12	SEMO	W KY	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.5
28	16-12	W KY	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Marin Johnson	+0.6
29	16-13	W KY	SEMO	Bad set	Kendall Meller		+0.4
30	16-14	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore		+0.7
31	17-14	SEMO	W KY	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+0.6
32	17-15	W KY	SEMO×3	Serve err	W KY server		+0.5
33	17-16	SEMO	SEMO×3	Bad set	Alivia Skidmore		+1.0
34	17-17	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore		+1.2
35	18-17	SEMO	W KY	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.9
36	19-17	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Ellie Burns		+1.2
37	19-18	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.7
38	20-18	SEMO	W KY×3	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.9
39	21-18	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Kate Rush	set Ellie Burns	+1.0
40	22-18	W KY	W KY×3	Attack err	Jacey Young		+0.6
41	22-19	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+0.3
42	23-19	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kate Rush		+0.4
43	23-20	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.2
44	24-20	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.4
45	25-20	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Western Ky. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.