FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

Western Ky. def. Southeast Mo. St. 3–0

Western Ky. won at Southeast Mo. St. 3-0 (25-20, 25-20, 25-20) on Sat, Aug 29, 2026. Western Ky.'s Faith Young and Eliza McKnight led with 12 kills each, and Tayler Baron added 17 digs.

Data through · final Aug 29

Set123Sets
W KY2525253
SEMO2020200

Win probability

Southeast Mo. St. above 50 · Western Ky. below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+3.5% W KYrally 135 · set 3

Biggest swing: 3.5% to Western Ky. — set 1, W KY 15-14 SEMO. Western Ky. ace. SEMO win probability 32% → 29%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

W KY 69.8%30.2% SEMO

Western Ky. wins

3-0
23.1%
3-1
26.8%
3-2
19.9%

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0
5.8%
3-1
10.6%
3-2
13.8%
W KY break %
42.1% vs this opp
SEMO break %
38.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Western Ky.Ace+3.5%

    Western Ky. ace

    Set 1 · W KY 15-14 SEMO · W KY 68% → 71%

  2. 02
    Marin JohnsonKill+3.4%

    Kill by Marin Johnson (set by Megan Holder)

    Set 1 · W KY 12-13 SEMO · SEMO 31% → 34%

  3. 03
    Western Ky.Ace+3.3%

    Western Ky. ace on Lucy Arndt

    Set 1 · W KY 16-14 SEMO · W KY 71% → 74%

  4. 04
    Kate RushKill+2.9%

    Kill by Kate Rush (set by Ellie Burns)

    Set 1 · W KY 18-15 SEMO · W KY 75% → 77%

  5. 05
    Faith YoungKill+2.8%

    Kill by Faith Young (set by Kate Rush)

    Set 1 · W KY 10-9 SEMO · W KY 68% → 71%

  6. 06

    Kill by Alivia Skidmore (set by Kate Rush)

    Set 1 · W KY 6-6 SEMO · W KY 66% → 68%

  7. 07
    Reagan NelsonKill+2.6%

    Kill by Reagan Nelson (set by Megan Holder)

    Set 1 · W KY 2-5 SEMO · SEMO 35% → 38%

  8. 08
    Kaira KnoxAttack error+2.6%

    Attack error by Kaira Knox

    Set 1 · W KY 2-4 SEMO · SEMO 33% → 35%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312223.43511020010.513.5
312117.6471000002113
37111.5450334002111
35112.333400280010.55.5
35215.200000010005
3000–301010000
38013.6150112010110
3003.0000201700002
3001.000003700000
2000–000000000
1000–011000001
Team totals49795.4424581140316475
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
311225.3601004100011
36429.069520510008
38325.200000410008
36011.545000001017
32021.00015011000002
2114.000002000001
3001.000311600001
3002.000900000000
2214.250000000002
2000–000100000
1123-.333000000001
1000–000000000
Team totals3713106.226333430810160

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Western Ky. vs Southeast Mo. St.

Season series · Western Ky. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 W KY · SEMO 3

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 6 W KYSEMO 3

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 W KYSEMO 2

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 5 W KYSEMO 3

Bars above the line = Southeast Mo. St. leads, below = Western Ky. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Western Ky.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%9/13
22%2/9
2
53%9/17
25%3/12
3
80%8/10
20%2/10
4
100%7/7
46%6/13
5
75%6/8
60%9/15
6
86%6/7
57%8/14
All
73%45/62
41%30/73

Southeast Mo. St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
90%9/10
33%4/12
2
80%8/10
44%7/16
3
62%8/13
33%4/12
4
38%6/16
0%0/8
5
40%6/15
14%1/7
6
67%6/9
14%1/7
All
59%43/73
27%17/62

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

135 rallies

#W KY-SEMOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SEMOSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+2.4
20-2SEMOSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+2.5
31-2SEMOW KYServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.6
42-2W KYW KYKillFaith Youngset Kate Rush+2.4
52-3W KYSEMO×3Serve errWestern Ky.+1.7
62-4SEMOSEMO×3Attack errKaira Knox+2.6
72-5SEMOSEMO×3KillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+2.6
83-5SEMOW KYKillKaira Knoxset Faith Young+1.6
93-6W KYSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+1.8
104-6SEMOW KY×3KillEliza McKnightset Kate Rush+1.6
115-6W KYW KY×3KillAlivia Skidmoreset Kate Rush+2.6
126-6W KYW KY×3KillAlivia Skidmoreset Kate Rush+2.6
136-7W KYSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Nina Schuberth+1.9
147-7SEMOW KYKillEliza McKnightset Kate Rush+1.8
157-8W KYSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+1.9
168-8SEMOW KYKillAlivia Skidmoreset Kate Rush+1.8
178-9W KYSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+2.0
189-9SEMOW KYServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.9
1910-9W KYW KYKillFaith Youngset Kate Rush+2.8
2010-10W KYSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+1.9
2111-10SEMOW KYKillFaith Youngset Kate Rush+1.9
2211-11W KYSEMOAttack errSonja Laaksonen+2.0
2312-11SEMOW KYBad setAlaina Lester+2.0
2412-12W KYSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+2.1
2512-13SEMOSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+3.4
2613-13SEMOW KYKillEliza McKnightset Kate Rush+2.2
2713-14W KYSEMOServe errWestern Ky.+2.4
2814-14SEMOW KY×3KillEliza McKnightset Kate Rush+2.3
2915-14W KYW KY×3AceWestern Ky.+3.5
3016-14W KYW KY×3AceWestern Ky.aced Lucy Arndt+3.3
3116-15W KYSEMOServe errWestern Ky.+2.1
3217-15SEMOW KY×6KillAlivia Skidmoreset Kate Rush+2.3
3318-15W KYW KY×6KillKate Rushset Ellie Burns+2.9
3419-15W KYW KY×6AceWestern Ky.+2.2
3520-15W KYW KY×6KillFaith Youngset Kate Rush+1.5
3621-15W KYW KY×6BlockedLucy Arndtblk Faith Young, Kate Rush+0.9
3722-15W KYW KY×6KillKate Rushset Ellie Burns+0.4
3822-16W KYSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+0.1
3923-16SEMOW KYKillFaith Youngset Kate Rush+0.2
4023-17W KYSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Ellie Burns+0.1
4123-18SEMOSEMOAttack errFaith Young+0.2
4224-18SEMOW KYKillSonja Laaksonenset Kate Rush+0.3
4324-19W KYSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Lucy Arndt·
4424-20SEMOSEMOAceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Sonja Laaksonen+0.2
4525-20SEMOW KYKillFaith Youngset Kate Rush+0.3
Set 2
10-1W KYSEMOBad setKaira Knox+1.3
20-2SEMOSEMOAceSoutheast Mo. St.+2.0
31-2SEMOW KYAttack errMarin Johnson+1.3
42-2W KYW KYBlockedReagan Nelsonblk Kaira Knox, Eliza McKnight+2.0
52-3W KYSEMOKillMegan Holder+1.4
62-4SEMOSEMOKillReagan Nelson+2.1
73-4SEMOW KYKillKaira Knoxset Eliza McKnight+1.3
83-5W KYSEMOServe errWestern Ky.+1.5
94-5SEMOW KY×4KillKaira Knoxset Kate Rush+1.4
105-5W KYW KY×4Attack errSydney Miller+2.1
116-5W KYW KY×4AceWestern Ky.aced Reagan Nelson+2.1
127-5W KYW KY×4KillKate Rushset Ellie Burns+2.0
137-6W KYSEMOServe errWestern Ky.+1.3
148-6SEMOW KYKillEliza McKnightset Kate Rush+1.3
159-6W KYW KYAttack errAlayna Christner+1.8
169-7W KYSEMOKillAlayna Christnerset Lucy Arndt+1.1
179-8SEMOSEMOKillAlayna Christnerset Ellie Burns+2.0
1810-8SEMOW KYServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.4
1911-8W KYW KYKillSonja Laaksonenset Cali Foster+1.9
2011-9W KYSEMOServe errWestern Ky.+1.2
2112-9SEMOW KYKillFaith Youngset Kate Rush+1.3
2212-10W KYSEMOServe errWestern Ky.+1.2
2313-10SEMOW KYKillKate Rushset Marin Johnson+1.3
2414-10W KYW KYAceWestern Ky.+1.7
2514-11W KYSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+1.0
2615-11SEMOW KY×3Serve errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.1
2716-11W KYW KY×3BlockedMarin Johnsonblk Alivia Skidmore+1.3
2817-11W KYW KY×3Attack errReagan Nelson+0.9
2917-12W KYSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+0.4
3018-12SEMOW KYKillKaira Knoxset Kate Rush+0.6
3118-13W KYSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+0.4
3219-13SEMOW KYKillAlivia Skidmoreset Kate Rush+0.6
3320-13W KYW KYKillFaith Youngset Kate Rush+0.5
3420-14W KYSEMOKillSydney Millerset Lucy Arndt+0.2
3521-14SEMOW KYKillAlivia Skidmoreset Kate Rush+0.3
3621-15W KYSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+0.1
3721-16SEMOSEMOKillAlaina Lester+0.3
3822-16SEMOW KYKillFaith Youngset Kate Rush+0.4
3922-17W KYSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Nina Schuberth+0.2
4023-17SEMOW KYAttack errLucy Arndt+0.3
4123-18W KYSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+0.1
4223-19SEMOSEMOAceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Cali Foster+0.3
4324-19SEMOW KYKillKaira Knoxset Kate Rush+0.5
4424-20W KYSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+0.1
4525-20SEMOW KYKillEliza McKnightset Kate Rush+0.2
Set 3
11-0SEMOW KYKillFaith Youngset Kate Rush+0.7
21-1W KYSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+0.7
31-2SEMOSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Nina Schuberth+1.2
42-2SEMOW KYKillSonja Laaksonenset Kate Rush+0.7
52-3W KYSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+0.8
62-4SEMOSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Marin Johnson+1.2
73-4SEMOW KYKillEliza McKnightset Kate Rush+0.8
84-4W KYW KYKillAlivia Skidmoreset Kate Rush+1.2
94-5W KYSEMOKillJacey Youngset Megan Holder+0.8
105-5SEMOW KYKillEliza McKnightset Kate Rush+0.8
115-6W KYSEMOServe errWestern Ky.+0.9
125-7SEMOSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Lucy Arndt+1.3
136-7SEMOW KYKillEliza McKnightset Kate Rush+0.8
146-8W KYSEMOBad setKate Rush+0.9
157-8SEMOW KYKillFaith Youngset Kate Rush+0.8
168-8W KYW KYAceWestern Ky.+1.3
178-9W KYSEMOAttack errFaith Young+0.9
189-9SEMOW KYKillKate Rushset Cali Foster+0.9
199-10W KYSEMO×3Attack errKate Rush+1.0
209-11SEMOSEMO×3KillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+1.5
219-12SEMOSEMO×3Attack errSonja Laaksonen+1.5
2210-12SEMOW KYKillSonja Laaksonenset Kate Rush+0.9
2310-13W KYSEMOBlockedEliza McKnightblk Alaina Lester+1.0
2411-13SEMOW KYKillKaira Knoxset Kate Rush+0.9
2511-14W KYSEMOKillMegan Holderset Lucy Arndt+1.1
2612-14SEMOW KY×5KillKaira Knoxset Kate Rush+0.9
2713-14W KYW KY×5Attack errJacey Young+1.5
2814-14W KYW KY×5Attack errLucy Arndt+1.6
2915-14W KYW KY×5AceWestern Ky.aced Marin Johnson+1.7
3016-14W KYW KY×5KillEliza McKnightset Kate Rush+1.6
3116-15W KYSEMOServe errWestern Ky.+1.0
3217-15SEMOW KY×3KillEliza McKnightset Kate Rush+1.1
3318-15W KYW KY×3Attack errJacey Young+1.4
3419-15W KYW KY×3AceWestern Ky.+1.1
3519-16W KYSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+0.5
3620-16SEMOW KYKillAlivia Skidmoreset Kate Rush+0.7
3720-17W KYSEMOServe errWestern Ky.+0.5
3821-17SEMOW KYKillSonja Laaksonenset Cali Foster+0.7
3921-18W KYSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Megan Holder+0.5
4022-18SEMOW KYKillFaith Youngset Kate Rush+0.7
4122-19W KYSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+0.4
4223-19SEMOW KYAttack errReagan Nelson+0.6
4323-20W KYSEMOServe errWestern Ky.+0.3
4424-20SEMOW KYBlockedLucy Arndtblk Kaira Knox, Eliza McKnight+0.6
4525-20W KYW KYKillEliza McKnightset Kate Rush+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Western Ky. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).