FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayCUSA

3:0

HomeOVC

Western Ky. def. Southeast Mo. St. 3–0

(25-20, 25-20, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
W KY	25	25	25	3
SEMO	20	20	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SEMO above 50 · W KY below

Biggest swing: 2.9% to Southeast Mo. St. — set 1, W KY 12-13 SEMO. Kill by Marin Johnson (set by Megan Holder). SEMO win probability 22% → 25%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

W KY 79.2%20.8% SEMO

Western Ky. wins

3-0

30.7%

3-1

30.0%

3-2

18.5%

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0

3.4%

3-1

7.0%

3-2

10.4%

W KY break %: 43.9% vs this opp
SEMO break %: 37.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Marin JohnsonKill+2.9%
Kill by Marin Johnson (set by Megan Holder)
Set 1 · W KY 12-13 SEMO · SEMO 22% → 25%
02
W KY serverAce+2.9%
Western Ky. ace on Team
Set 1 · W KY 15-14 SEMO · W KY 77% → 80%
03
W KY serverAce+2.6%
Western Ky. ace on Lucy Arndt
Set 1 · W KY 16-14 SEMO · W KY 80% → 82%
04
Reagan NelsonKill+2.3%
Kill by Reagan Nelson (set by Megan Holder)
Set 1 · W KY 2-5 SEMO · SEMO 25% → 28%
05
Faith YoungKill+2.3%
Kill by Faith Young (set by Kate Rush)
Set 1 · W KY 10-9 SEMO · W KY 78% → 80%
06
Kate RushKill+2.3%
Kill by Kate Rush (set by Ellie Burns)
Set 1 · W KY 18-15 SEMO · W KY 82% → 85%
07
Kaira KnoxAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Kaira Knox
Set 1 · W KY 2-4 SEMO · SEMO 23% → 25%
08
Alivia SkidmoreKill+2.2%
Kill by Alivia Skidmore (set by Kate Rush)
Set 1 · W KY 5-6 SEMO · W KY 74% → 76%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Western Ky.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Faith YoungOH	3	12	2	23	.435	1	1	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	13.5
21Eliza McKnightOH	3	12	1	17	.647	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	13
5Kaira KnoxOH	3	7	1	11	.545	0	3	3	4	0	0	2	1	11
20Kate RushS	3	5	1	12	.333	40	0	2	8	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
16Sonja LaaksonenOH	3	5	2	15	.200	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
8Cali FosterL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
17Alivia SkidmoreOH	3	8	0	13	.615	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	1	10
2Tayler BaronL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	0	2	0	17	0	0	0	0	2
3Kennedy CherryL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	3	7	0	0	0	0	0
13Kendall MellerOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Camila AdamsDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		49	7	95	.442	45	8	11	40	3	1	6	4	75

Southeast Mo. St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
4Marin JohnsonOH	3	11	2	25	.360	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	11
2Lucy ArndtOH	3	6	4	29	.069	5	2	0	5	1	0	0	8
12Reagan NelsonOH	3	8	3	25	.200	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	8
24Alaina LesterMB	3	6	0	11	.545	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	7
11Megan HolderS	3	2	0	2	1.000	15	0	1	10	0	0	0	2
7Sydney MillerMB	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
1Nina SchuberthL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	1	1	6	0	0	0	1
6Ellie BurnsS	3	0	0	2	.000	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Alayna ChristnerOH	2	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
8Holland GuilliamsL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
19Jacey YoungMB	1	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
16Ava MathewsOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	13	106	.226	33	3	4	30	8	1	1	60

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 W KY · SEMO 3

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 6 W KYSEMO 3

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 W KYSEMO 2

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 5 W KYSEMO 3

Bars above the line = Southeast Mo. St. leads, below = Western Ky. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Western Ky.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	22%2/9
2	53%9/17	25%3/12
3	80%8/10	20%2/10
4	100%7/7	46%6/13
5	75%6/8	60%9/15
6	86%6/7	57%8/14
All	73%45/62	41%30/73

Southeast Mo. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	90%9/10	33%4/12
2	80%8/10	44%7/16
3	62%8/13	33%4/12
4	38%6/16	0%0/8
5	40%6/15	14%1/7
6	67%6/9	14%1/7
All	59%43/73	27%17/62

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	W KY-SEMO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+2.0
2	0-2	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+2.1
3	1-2	SEMO	W KY	Serve err	SEMO server		+1.3
4	2-2	W KY	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+2.0
5	2-3	W KY	SEMO×3	Serve err	W KY server		+1.5
6	2-4	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Kaira Knox		+2.2
7	2-5	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+2.3
8	3-5	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Faith Young	+1.4
9	3-6	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+1.7
10	4-6	SEMO	W KY×3	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+1.4
11	5-6	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+2.2
12	6-6	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+2.2
13	6-7	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Nina Schuberth	+1.6
14	7-7	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+1.5
15	7-8	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+1.7
16	8-8	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+1.6
17	8-9	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+1.7
18	9-9	SEMO	W KY	Serve err	SEMO server		+1.6
19	10-9	W KY	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+2.3
20	10-10	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+1.7
21	11-10	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+1.6
22	11-11	W KY	SEMO	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen		+1.7
23	12-11	SEMO	W KY	Bad set	Alaina Lester		+1.7
24	12-12	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+1.8
25	12-13	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+2.9
26	13-13	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+1.9
27	13-14	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+2.1
28	14-14	SEMO	W KY×3	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+2.0
29	15-14	W KY	W KY×3	Ace	W KY server	aced Team	+2.9
30	16-14	W KY	W KY×3	Ace	W KY server	aced Lucy Arndt	+2.6
31	16-15	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+1.7
32	17-15	SEMO	W KY×6	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+1.9
33	18-15	W KY	W KY×6	Kill	Kate Rush	set Ellie Burns	+2.3
34	19-15	W KY	W KY×6	Ace	W KY server	aced Team	+1.7
35	20-15	W KY	W KY×6	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+1.1
36	21-15	W KY	W KY×6	Attack err	Lucy Arndt	blk Faith Young, Kate Rush	+0.6
37	22-15	W KY	W KY×6	Kill	Kate Rush	set Ellie Burns	+0.3
38	22-16	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.1
39	23-16	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.1
40	23-17	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Ellie Burns	+0.0
41	23-18	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Faith Young		+0.1
42	24-18	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+0.2
43	24-19	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Lucy Arndt	+0.0
44	24-20	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	SEMO server	aced Sonja Laaksonen	+0.1
45	25-20	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.2
Set 2
1	0-1	W KY	SEMO	Bad set	Kaira Knox		+1.0
2	0-2	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	SEMO server	aced Team	+1.6
3	1-2	SEMO	W KY	Attack err	Marin Johnson		+1.0
4	2-2	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Reagan Nelson	blk Kaira Knox, Eliza McKnight	+1.5
5	2-3	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Megan Holder		+1.1
6	2-4	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson		+1.7
7	3-4	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Eliza McKnight	+1.1
8	3-5	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+1.2
9	4-5	SEMO	W KY×4	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+1.1
10	5-5	W KY	W KY×4	Attack err	Sydney Miller		+1.6
11	6-5	W KY	W KY×4	Ace	W KY server	aced Reagan Nelson	+1.5
12	7-5	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Kate Rush	set Ellie Burns	+1.4
13	7-6	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+1.0
14	8-6	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+1.0
15	9-6	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Alayna Christner		+1.3
16	9-7	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Alayna Christner	set Lucy Arndt	+0.8
17	9-8	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Alayna Christner	set Ellie Burns	+1.5
18	10-8	SEMO	W KY	Serve err	SEMO server		+1.0
19	11-8	W KY	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Cali Foster	+1.4
20	11-9	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.9
21	12-9	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.9
22	12-10	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.9
23	13-10	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kate Rush	set Marin Johnson	+1.0
24	14-10	W KY	W KY	Ace	W KY server	aced Team	+1.2
25	14-11	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.7
26	15-11	SEMO	W KY×3	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.8
27	16-11	W KY	W KY×3	Attack err	Marin Johnson	blk Alivia Skidmore	+0.9
28	17-11	W KY	W KY×3	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+0.6
29	17-12	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+0.3
30	18-12	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.4
31	18-13	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.3
32	19-13	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.4
33	20-13	W KY	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.3
34	20-14	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Sydney Miller	set Lucy Arndt	+0.1
35	21-14	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.2
36	21-15	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+0.1
37	21-16	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester		+0.2
38	22-16	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.3
39	22-17	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Nina Schuberth	+0.1
40	23-17	SEMO	W KY	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+0.2
41	23-18	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+0.1
42	23-19	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	SEMO server	aced Cali Foster	+0.2
43	24-19	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.3
44	24-20	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+0.1
45	25-20	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.2
Set 3
1	1-0	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.5
2	1-1	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+0.5
3	1-2	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Nina Schuberth	+0.8
4	2-2	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+0.5
5	2-3	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.6
6	2-4	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Marin Johnson	+0.9
7	3-4	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.6
8	4-4	W KY	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.8
9	4-5	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Jacey Young	set Megan Holder	+0.6
10	5-5	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.6
11	5-6	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.6
12	5-7	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Lucy Arndt	+1.0
13	6-7	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.6
14	6-8	W KY	SEMO	Bad set	Kate Rush		+0.7
15	7-8	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.6
16	8-8	W KY	W KY	Ace	W KY server	aced Team	+0.9
17	8-9	W KY	SEMO	Attack err	Faith Young		+0.7
18	9-9	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kate Rush	set Cali Foster	+0.7
19	9-10	W KY	SEMO×3	Attack err	Kate Rush		+0.7
20	9-11	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+1.1
21	9-12	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen		+1.1
22	10-12	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+0.7
23	10-13	W KY	SEMO	Attack err	Eliza McKnight	blk Alaina Lester	+0.8
24	11-13	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.7
25	11-14	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Megan Holder	set Lucy Arndt	+0.9
26	12-14	SEMO	W KY×5	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.7
27	13-14	W KY	W KY×5	Attack err	Jacey Young		+1.1
28	14-14	W KY	W KY×5	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+1.2
29	15-14	W KY	W KY×5	Ace	W KY server	aced Marin Johnson	+1.2
30	16-14	W KY	W KY×5	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+1.1
31	16-15	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.7
32	17-15	SEMO	W KY×3	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.7
33	18-15	W KY	W KY×3	Attack err	Jacey Young		+0.9
34	19-15	W KY	W KY×3	Ace	W KY server	aced Team	+0.7
35	19-16	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+0.4
36	20-16	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.5
37	20-17	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.3
38	21-17	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Cali Foster	+0.5
39	21-18	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+0.3
40	22-18	SEMO	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.5
41	22-19	W KY	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.3
42	23-19	SEMO	W KY	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+0.4
43	23-20	W KY	SEMO	Serve err	W KY server		+0.2
44	24-20	SEMO	W KY	Attack err	Lucy Arndt	blk Kaira Knox, Eliza McKnight	+0.4
45	25-20	W KY	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Western Ky. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.