FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayOVC

3:0

HomeMETRO

Southeast Mo. St. def. Merrimack 3–0

(25-12, 25-9, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SEMO	25	25	25	3
MERMCK	12	9	16	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MERMCK above 50 · SEMO below

Biggest swing: 0.3% to Merrimack — set 1, SEMO 4-4 MERMCK. Merrimack ace on Lucy Arndt. MERMCK win probability 2% → 2%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SEMO 98.2%1.8% MERMCK

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0

68.1%

3-1

24.5%

3-2

5.5%

Merrimack wins

3-0

0.2%

3-1

0.5%

3-2

1.2%

SEMO break %: 53.7% vs this opp
MERMCK break %: 37.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
MERMCK serverAce+0.3%
Merrimack ace on Lucy Arndt
Set 1 · SEMO 4-4 MERMCK · MERMCK 2% → 2%
02
Mia IzzoAttack error+0.2%
Mia Izzo stuffed by Lucy Arndt
Set 1 · SEMO 6-4 MERMCK · SEMO 98% → 99%
03
Jocelyn HammerstrandKill+0.2%
Kill by Jocelyn Hammerstrand (set by Sophia DeBonis)
Set 1 · SEMO 2-2 MERMCK · MERMCK 2% → 2%
04
SEMO serverAce+0.2%
Southeast Mo. St. ace on Tamilore Afolalu
Set 1 · SEMO 1-0 MERMCK · SEMO 98% → 98%
05
Jacey YoungKill+0.2%
Kill by Jacey Young (set by Megan Holder)
Set 1 · SEMO 5-4 MERMCK · SEMO 98% → 98%
06
Jocelyn HammerstrandKill+0.2%
Kill by Jocelyn Hammerstrand (set by Sophia DeBonis)
Set 1 · SEMO 1-1 MERMCK · MERMCK 2% → 2%
07
Jacey YoungKill+0.2%
Kill by Jacey Young (set by Megan Holder)
Set 1 · SEMO 4-2 MERMCK · SEMO 98% → 99%
08
Katarina MiscevicKill+0.2%
Kill by Katarina Miscevic (set by Megan Holder)
Set 1 · SEMO 3-2 MERMCK · SEMO 98% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southeast Mo. St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Lucy ArndtOH	3	9	1	21	.381	1	0	1	3	1	1	2	2	11
12Reagan NelsonOH	3	6	2	13	.308	1	4	1	13	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
3Paige SmithOH	3	6	3	11	.273	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
17Katarina MiscevicMB	3	3	0	4	.750	0	1	1	1	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
11Megan HolderS	3	0	0	0	–	21	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	1
19Jacey YoungMB	1	2	2	4	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
4Marin JohnsonOH	3	5	1	11	.364	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5
13Brooklyn RitterS	3	1	0	2	.500	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
7Sydney MillerMB	2	2	0	2	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
8Holland GuilliamsL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
16Ava MathewsOH	1	1	0	5	.200	1	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	2
14Harper HighfillL/DS	1	0	0	2	.000	2	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
5Alayna ChristnerOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
1Nina SchuberthL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	10	77	.325	34	9	5	31	2	1	12	7	75

Merrimackhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
8Jocelyn HammerstrandOPP	3	6	1	15	.333	0	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	6.5
10Mckenna ShotwellOH	3	4	6	17	-.118	2	0	3	6	1	1	0.5	4.5
17Kaitlyn OxceusOH	3	2	1	4	.250	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
3Sophia DeBonisS	3	0	1	2	-.500	12	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
7Tamilore Afolalu	2	3	4	11	-.091	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3
13Mia IzzoMB	2	0	1	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	1.5
12Ella MaldonadoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	8	1	0	0	0
18Sienna Franks	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	0
14Maiella Blandin	2	2	2	7	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
4Vaia TsioutsioulasOH	2	1	3	7	-.286	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.5	1.5
19Elizabeth KenneyS	2	0	0	4	.000	2	1	0	3	0	0	0	1
15Gabrielle Moore	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Natalia Zelubowski	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.5	1.5
20Devon Lowe	1	0	1	2	-.500	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
1Naomi VajdaMB	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
9Avry BryantOPP	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
6Fabiola BetancourtOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Maddy FennessyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		19	21	78	-.026	18	2	7	24	9	10	5	37

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 SEMO · MERMCK 3

Set 1

25-12

Longest run 6 SEMOMERMCK 2

Set 2

25-9

Longest run 7 SEMOMERMCK 2

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 6 SEMOMERMCK 3

Bars above the line = Merrimack leads, below = Southeast Mo. St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southeast Mo. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	58%7/12
2	71%5/7	69%11/16
3	83%5/6	69%11/16
4	50%4/8	71%10/14
5	100%3/3	57%4/7
6	60%3/5	67%6/9
All	68%26/38	66%49/74

Merrimack

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	26%5/19	43%3/7
2	71%5/7	38%3/8
3	29%5/17	17%1/6
4	27%4/15	29%2/7
5	33%3/9	43%3/7
6	43%3/7	0%0/3
All	34%25/74	32%12/38

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

112 rallies

Rally log

#	SEMO-MERMCK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	SEMO server	aced Tamilore Afolalu	+0.2
2	1-1	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
3	2-1	MERMCK	SEMO	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.2
4	2-2	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
5	3-2	MERMCK	SEMO	Kill	Katarina Miscevic	set Megan Holder	+0.2
6	4-2	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Jacey Young	set Megan Holder	+0.2
7	4-3	SEMO	MERMCK	Attack err	Paige Smith		+0.2
8	4-4	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Lucy Arndt	+0.3
9	5-4	MERMCK	SEMO×6	Kill	Jacey Young	set Megan Holder	+0.2
10	6-4	SEMO	SEMO×6	Attack err	Mia Izzo	blk Lucy Arndt	+0.2
11	7-4	SEMO	SEMO×6	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.2
12	8-4	SEMO	SEMO×6	Ace	SEMO server	aced Team	+0.1
13	9-4	SEMO	SEMO×6	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.1
14	10-4	SEMO	SEMO×6	Bad set	Elizabeth Kenney		+0.1
15	10-5	SEMO	MERMCK	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+0.1
16	10-6	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Jacey Young	blk Avry Bryant, Mia Izzo	+0.1
17	11-6	MERMCK	SEMO	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.1
18	12-6	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.1
19	12-7	SEMO	MERMCK	Attack err	Jacey Young		+0.1
20	13-7	MERMCK	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Brooklyn Ritter	+0.1
21	13-8	SEMO	MERMCK	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.1
22	13-9	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Reagan Nelson	blk Jocelyn Hammerstrand, Kaitlyn Oxceus	+0.1
23	14-9	MERMCK	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Brooklyn Ritter	+0.1
24	15-9	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Kaitlyn Oxceus		+0.1
25	15-10	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
26	16-10	MERMCK	SEMO×3	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.1
27	17-10	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.1
28	18-10	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.0
29	18-11	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
30	19-11	MERMCK	SEMO×6	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.0
31	20-11	SEMO	SEMO×6	Kill	Paige Smith	set Megan Holder	+0.0
32	21-11	SEMO	SEMO×6	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	blk Lucy Arndt, Jacey Young	+0.0
33	22-11	SEMO	SEMO×6	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.0
34	23-11	SEMO	SEMO×6	Kill	Paige Smith	set Megan Holder	+0.0
35	24-11	SEMO	SEMO×6	Ace	SEMO server	aced Vaia Tsioutsioulas	+0.0
36	24-12	SEMO	MERMCK	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+0.0
37	25-12	MERMCK	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Reagan Nelson	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Mckenna Shotwell	+0.2
2	1-1	MERMCK	SEMO×7	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+0.1
3	2-1	SEMO	SEMO×7	Ace	SEMO server	aced Natalia Zelubowski	+0.1
4	3-1	SEMO	SEMO×7	Ace	SEMO server	aced Team	+0.1
5	4-1	SEMO	SEMO×7	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.1
6	5-1	SEMO	SEMO×7	Kill	Paige Smith	set Megan Holder	+0.1
7	6-1	SEMO	SEMO×7	Kill	Katarina Miscevic	set Megan Holder	+0.1
8	7-1	SEMO	SEMO×7	Ace	SEMO server	aced Ella Maldonado	+0.0
9	7-2	SEMO	MERMCK	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.0
10	7-3	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Paige Smith	blk Natalia Zelubowski, Mia Izzo	+0.1
11	8-3	MERMCK	SEMO	Kill	Paige Smith	set Megan Holder	+0.1
12	8-4	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
13	9-4	MERMCK	SEMO	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.1
14	10-4	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Brooklyn Ritter	+0.0
15	10-5	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Natalia Zelubowski	set Mckenna Shotwell	+0.0
16	10-6	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Team	+0.1
17	11-6	MERMCK	SEMO×3	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Brooklyn Ritter	+0.1
18	12-6	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Brooklyn Ritter	+0.1
19	13-6	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Maiella Blandin		+0.0
20	13-7	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Kaitlyn Oxceus	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
21	14-7	MERMCK	SEMO×5	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Brooklyn Ritter	+0.0
22	15-7	SEMO	SEMO×5	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Brooklyn Ritter	+0.0
23	16-7	SEMO	SEMO×5	Attack err	Devon Lowe		+0.0
24	17-7	SEMO	SEMO×5	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.0
25	18-7	SEMO	SEMO×5	Attack err	Devon Lowe		+0.0
26	18-8	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
27	19-8	MERMCK	SEMO×3	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
28	20-8	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Maiella Blandin	blk Katarina Miscevic, Reagan Nelson	+0.0
29	21-8	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.0
30	21-9	SEMO	MERMCK	Attack err	Alayna Christner	blk Mia Izzo, Mckenna Shotwell	+0.0
31	22-9	MERMCK	SEMO×4	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+0.0
32	23-9	SEMO	SEMO×4	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.0
33	24-9	SEMO	SEMO×4	Ace	SEMO server	aced Mckenna Shotwell	+0.0
34	25-9	SEMO	SEMO×4	Attack err	Sophia DeBonis		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
2	0-2	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
3	1-2	MERMCK	SEMO	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.1
4	1-3	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Vaia Tsioutsioulas	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
5	1-4	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Paige Smith	blk Naomi Vajda, Vaia Tsioutsioulas	+0.1
6	2-4	MERMCK	SEMO×6	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.1
7	3-4	SEMO	SEMO×6	Kill	Paige Smith	set Lucy Arndt	+0.1
8	4-4	SEMO	SEMO×6	Attack err	Naomi Vajda	blk Sydney Miller, Paige Smith	+0.1
9	5-4	SEMO	SEMO×6	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.1
10	6-4	SEMO	SEMO×6	Attack err	Vaia Tsioutsioulas		+0.1
11	7-4	SEMO	SEMO×6	Kill	Paige Smith	set Megan Holder	+0.0
12	7-5	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
13	8-5	MERMCK	SEMO×5	Kill	Sydney Miller	set Megan Holder	+0.0
14	9-5	SEMO	SEMO×5	Attack err	Vaia Tsioutsioulas		+0.0
15	10-5	SEMO	SEMO×5	Bad set	Elizabeth Kenney		+0.0
16	11-5	SEMO	SEMO×5	Ace	SEMO server	aced Team	+0.0
17	12-5	SEMO	SEMO×5	Attack err	Vaia Tsioutsioulas		+0.0
18	12-6	SEMO	MERMCK×3	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.0
19	12-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Marin Johnson		+0.0
20	12-8	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Bad set	Marin Johnson		+0.0
21	13-8	MERMCK	SEMO	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
22	13-9	SEMO	MERMCK	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.0
23	14-9	MERMCK	SEMO×3	Kill	Sydney Miller	set Brooklyn Ritter	+0.0
24	15-9	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Brooklyn Ritter	+0.0
25	16-9	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	SEMO server	aced Sienna Franks	+0.0
26	16-10	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.0
27	16-11	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.0
28	17-11	MERMCK	SEMO×4	Kill	Brooklyn Ritter	set Harper Highfill	+0.0
29	18-11	SEMO	SEMO×4	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.0
30	19-11	SEMO	SEMO×4	Kill	Katarina Miscevic	set Megan Holder	+0.0
31	20-11	SEMO	SEMO×4	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ava Mathews	+0.0
32	20-12	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Kaitlyn Oxceus	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
33	20-13	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
34	21-13	MERMCK	SEMO	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Katarina Miscevic, Ava Mathews	+0.0
35	21-14	SEMO	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
36	22-14	MERMCK	SEMO	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Ava Mathews, Katarina Miscevic	+0.0
37	22-15	SEMO	MERMCK	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.0
38	23-15	MERMCK	SEMO	Kill	Ava Mathews	set Megan Holder	+0.0
39	23-16	SEMO	MERMCK	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.0
40	24-16	MERMCK	SEMO	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Lucy Arndt, Sydney Miller	+0.0
41	25-16	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Harper Highfill	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Southeast Mo. St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.