Southeast Mo. State def. Morehead State 3-0 (Oct 16)

FinalFri, Oct 16, 2026ESPN+

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Southeast Mo. St. 79.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Southeast Mo. St. won at Morehead St. 3-0 (25-18, 25-23, 25-14) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Southeast Mo. St.'s Reagan Nelson led with 13 kills.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Oct 16

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SEMO	25	25	25	3
MOREST	18	23	14	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Reagan Nelson hit .417 with 13 kills as Southeast Mo. St. rolled past Morehead St.

The biggest single-rally swing was 3.6 points, and Morehead St.'s high was 32% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Southeast Mo. St. at 80%.

Southeast Mo. St.Morehead St.

Break %+18.2 pts
48.630.4
On serve: 36/74 against 17/56 (Morehead St. sideout 51.4%).
Hitting+.147
.286.139
42 kills, 14 errors vs 32 kills, 18 errors.
Longest run+5
83
8 straight Southeast Mo. St. points in the first set turned a 9–12 deficit into a 17–12 lead. That set ended 25–18.

Morehead St. above 50Southeast Mo. St. belowMax swing 3.6%

Southeast Mo. St.Morehead St.

Aces: Southeast Mo. St. 7·Morehead St. 1
Serve err: Southeast Mo. St. 7·Morehead St. 7
Blocks: Southeast Mo. St. 8·Morehead St. 51 BS · 14 BA vs 1 BS · 8 BA
Digs: Southeast Mo. St. 46·Morehead St. 35

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Morehead St. above 50 · Southeast Mo. St. below

Biggest swing: 3.6% to Southeast Mo. St. — set 2, SEMO 25-23 MOREST. Kill by Lucy Arndt (set by Megan Holder). MOREST win probability 7% → 4%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SEMO 79.4%20.6% MOREST

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0

30.9%

3-1

30.0%

3-2

18.4%

Morehead St. wins

3-0

3.4%

3-1

6.9%

3-2

10.3%

SEMO break %: 45.1% vs this opp
MOREST break %: 38.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Lucy ArndtKill+3.6%
Kill by Lucy Arndt (set by Megan Holder)
Set 2 · SEMO 25-23 MOREST · SEMO 93% → 96%
02
Alaina LesterKill+2.5%
Kill by Alaina Lester (set by Harper Highfill)
Set 1 · SEMO 12-12 MOREST · SEMO 76% → 78%
03
Lucy ArndtKill+2.4%
Kill by Lucy Arndt (set by Megan Holder)
Set 1 · SEMO 11-12 MOREST · SEMO 73% → 76%
04
Amelia NottKill+2.4%
Kill by Amelia Nott (set by Amelia Nott)
Set 2 · SEMO 14-16 MOREST · MOREST 14% → 17%
05
Kylie SharpAttack error+2.4%
Attack error by Kylie Sharp
Set 1 · SEMO 13-12 MOREST · SEMO 78% → 81%
06
Ella WarrickKill+2.3%
Kill by Ella Warrick (set by Josie Certa)
Set 1 · SEMO 5-9 MOREST · MOREST 27% → 30%
07
Reagan NelsonKill+2.3%
Kill by Reagan Nelson
Set 2 · SEMO 16-16 MOREST · SEMO 85% → 87%
08
Reagan NelsonKill+2.3%
Kill by Reagan Nelson (set by Nina Schuberth)
Set 2 · SEMO 17-16 MOREST · SEMO 87% → 90%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Southeast Mo. St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Reagan NelsonOH	3	13	3	24	.417	2	2	2	15	0	0	1	0.5	15.5
2Lucy ArndtOH	3	12	0	28	.429	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12
22Katherine St. JohnOH	3	6	3	14	.214	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	8.5
4Marin JohnsonOH	3	6	3	16	.188	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
24Alaina LesterMB	3	5	2	11	.273	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
11Megan HolderS	3	0	0	1	.000	17	0	0	10	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
14Harper HighfillL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	7	4	1	12	0	0	0	0	4
1Nina SchuberthL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
6Ellie BurnsS	3	0	0	0	–	8	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
8Holland GuilliamsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Jacey YoungMB	2	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Katarina MiscevicMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	2.5
Team totals		42	14	98	.286	39	7	7	46	1	1	14	8	75

Morehead St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Ella WarrickOH	3	11	2	25	.360	0	0	0	5	4	0	1	0.5	11.5
9Amelia NottMB	3	8	2	14	.429	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	2	10
14Hollan EverettMB	3	6	8	30	-.067	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
2Haidyn CarterMB	3	2	4	12	-.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
7Kylie SharpMB	3	0	2	6	-.333	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
12Josie CertaS	3	0	0	0	–	8	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
1Riley McCloskeyOH	3	5	0	14	.357	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
3Tinsley BrownDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	1
6Courtney FitzgeraldDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	9	1	0	0	0	0
17Sydney SennettS	3	0	0	0	–	16	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	18	101	.139	27	1	7	35	7	1	8	5	55

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Southeast Mo. St. vs Morehead St.

Season series · Southeast Mo. St. leads 2-0

Fri, Oct 16, 2026Southeast Mo. St. at Morehead St. · Southeast Mo. St. won 3-0This match
Sat, Oct 17, 2026Southeast Mo. St. at Morehead St. · Southeast Mo. St. won 3-0Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 SEMO · MOREST 3

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 8 SEMOMOREST 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 6 SEMOMOREST 3

Set 3

25-14

Longest run 4 SEMOMOREST 2

Bars above the line = Morehead St. leads, below = Southeast Mo. St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Southeast Mo. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	46%6/13
2	78%7/9	63%12/19
3	64%7/11	50%7/14
4	75%6/8	33%3/9
5	55%6/11	50%6/12
6	83%5/6	29%2/7
All	70%39/56	49%36/74

Morehead St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	25%2/8
2	41%7/17	11%1/9
3	50%6/12	36%4/11
4	43%6/14	40%4/10
5	86%6/7	25%2/8
6	63%5/8	40%4/10
All	51%38/74	30%17/56

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

130 rallies

#	SEMO-MOREST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SEMO	MOREST	Attack err	Alaina Lester		+1.4
2	1-1	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+1.3
3	1-2	SEMO	MOREST	Serve err	Reagan Nelson		+1.5
4	1-3	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+2.0
5	2-3	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Sydney Sennett		+1.4
6	3-3	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Haidyn Carter		+1.9
7	3-4	SEMO	MOREST×3	Serve err	Harper Highfill		+1.5
8	3-5	MOREST	MOREST×3	Blocked	Marin Johnson	blk Ella Warrick, Haidyn Carter	+2.1
9	3-6	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	Tinsley Brown	aced Lucy Arndt	+2.2
10	4-6	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+1.5
11	4-7	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+1.8
12	5-7	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+1.5
13	5-8	SEMO	MOREST×3	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+1.8
14	5-9	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+2.3
15	5-10	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Jacey Young		+2.2
16	6-10	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+1.4
17	6-11	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+1.8
18	7-11	MOREST	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+1.4
19	8-11	SEMO	SEMO×3	Blocked	Kylie Sharp	blk Alaina Lester, Reagan Nelson	+2.1
20	9-11	SEMO	SEMO×3	Blocked	Hollan Everett	blk Katherine St. John, Megan Holder	+2.2
21	9-12	SEMO	MOREST	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+2.0
22	10-12	MOREST	SEMO×8	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+1.7
23	11-12	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+2.4
24	12-12	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Harper Highfill	+2.5
25	13-12	SEMO	SEMO×8	Attack err	Kylie Sharp		+2.4
26	14-12	SEMO	SEMO×8	Blocked	Hollan Everett	blk Alaina Lester, Katherine St. John	+2.2
27	15-12	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+1.9
28	16-12	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+1.6
29	17-12	SEMO	SEMO×8	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Reagan Nelson	+1.2
30	17-13	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Kylie Sharp	+0.7
31	18-13	MOREST	SEMO×3	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.9
32	19-13	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Haidyn Carter		+0.8
33	20-13	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	Harper Highfill	aced Ella Warrick	+0.5
34	20-14	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.2
35	21-14	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Harper Highfill	+0.3
36	21-15	SEMO	MOREST	Attack err	Marin Johnson		+0.2
37	22-15	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Reagan Nelson	+0.2
38	22-16	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.1
39	23-16	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Josie Certa		+0.2
40	23-17	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.1
41	24-17	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.1
42	24-18	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	·
43	25-18	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Amelia Nott		·
Set 2
1	1-0	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+0.9
2	2-0	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+1.2
3	2-1	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.9
4	3-1	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Harper Highfill	+0.9
5	4-1	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Harper Highfill	+1.1
6	4-2	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.8
7	4-3	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+1.2
8	5-3	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+0.9
9	5-4	SEMO	MOREST	Bad set	Harper Highfill		+1.0
10	6-4	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Harper Highfill	+1.0
11	6-5	SEMO	MOREST×3	Serve err	Nina Schuberth		+1.0
12	6-6	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+1.5
13	6-7	MOREST	MOREST×3	Blocked	Reagan Nelson	blk Kylie Sharp, Haidyn Carter	+1.6
14	7-7	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+1.2
15	7-8	SEMO	MOREST	Serve err	Marin Johnson		+1.3
16	7-9	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Katherine St. John		+1.8
17	8-9	MOREST	SEMO	Bad set	Sydney Sennett		+1.3
18	9-9	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+1.7
19	9-10	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+1.4
20	9-11	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+2.0
21	10-11	MOREST	SEMO×3	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+1.3
22	11-11	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Haidyn Carter		+1.8
23	12-11	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	Reagan Nelson		+1.8
24	12-12	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+1.4
25	13-12	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+1.4
26	13-13	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+1.5
27	14-13	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+1.4
28	14-14	SEMO	MOREST×3	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+1.5
29	14-15	MOREST	MOREST×3	Blocked	Jacey Young	blk Amelia Nott	+2.3
30	14-16	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Amelia Nott	+2.4
31	15-16	MOREST	SEMO×6	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+1.6
32	16-16	SEMO	SEMO×6	Kill	Reagan Nelson		+2.3
33	17-16	SEMO	SEMO×6	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Nina Schuberth	+2.3
34	18-16	SEMO	SEMO×6	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Nina Schuberth	+2.1
35	19-16	SEMO	SEMO×6	Ace	Nina Schuberth	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+1.7
36	20-16	SEMO	SEMO×6	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+1.3
37	20-17	SEMO	MOREST	Blocked	Marin Johnson	blk Hollan Everett, Amelia Nott	+0.7
38	21-17	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Harper Highfill	+1.0
39	21-18	SEMO	MOREST	Serve err	Marin Johnson		+0.7
40	22-18	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Sydney Sennett		+1.0
41	22-19	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.6
42	22-20	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+1.4
43	23-20	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+1.6
44	23-21	SEMO	MOREST	Serve err	Reagan Nelson		+1.0
45	24-21	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Courtney Fitzgerald		+1.6
46	24-22	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+0.7
47	24-23	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+2.2
48	25-23	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+3.6
Set 3
1	1-0	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Harper Highfill	+0.6
2	1-1	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.5
3	1-2	MOREST	MOREST	Blocked	Katherine St. John	blk Amelia Nott, Riley McCloskey	+0.7
4	2-2	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Courtney Fitzgerald		+0.5
5	3-2	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+0.7
6	3-3	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.5
7	4-3	MOREST	SEMO×3	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.5
8	5-3	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	Harper Highfill	aced Ella Warrick	+0.6
9	6-3	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	Harper Highfill	aced Tinsley Brown	+0.6
10	6-4	SEMO	MOREST	Attack err	Alaina Lester		+0.4
11	7-4	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Lucy Arndt	+0.4
12	7-5	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.4
13	8-5	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+0.4
14	9-5	SEMO	SEMO	Blocked	Haidyn Carter	blk Katarina Miscevic	+0.5
15	9-6	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.4
16	10-6	MOREST	SEMO	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+0.4
17	11-6	SEMO	SEMO	Blocked	Hollan Everett	blk Katarina Miscevic, Katherine St. John	+0.4
18	11-7	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+0.3
19	12-7	MOREST	SEMO×3	Serve err	Tinsley Brown		+0.3
20	13-7	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.3
21	14-7	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Nina Schuberth	+0.2
22	14-8	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+0.1
23	15-8	MOREST	SEMO	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+0.2
24	16-8	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	Reagan Nelson	aced Ella Warrick	+0.2
25	16-9	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Harper Highfill	+0.1
26	16-10	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Katherine St. John		+0.2
27	17-10	MOREST	SEMO	Blocked	Ella Warrick	blk Alaina Lester, Katherine St. John	+0.2
28	18-10	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	Harper Highfill	aced Ella Warrick	+0.1
29	18-11	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.1
30	19-11	MOREST	SEMO×4	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.1
31	20-11	SEMO	SEMO×4	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+0.1
32	21-11	SEMO	SEMO×4	Blocked	Hollan Everett	blk Marin Johnson, Katarina Miscevic	·
33	22-11	SEMO	SEMO×4	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Harper Highfill	·
34	22-12	SEMO	MOREST	Serve err	Ellie Burns		·
35	23-12	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Lucy Arndt	·
36	23-13	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Courtney Fitzgerald	·
37	23-14	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Katarina Miscevic		·
38	24-14	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	·
39	25-14	SEMO	SEMO	Blocked	Hollan Everett	blk Katherine St. John, Katarina Miscevic	·

Score shown after each rally, Southeast Mo. St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Southeast Mo. St. def. Morehead St. 3–0

Reagan Nelson hit .417 with 13 kills as Southeast Mo. St. rolled past Morehead St.