Southeast Mo. State def. Morehead State 3-0 (Oct 17)

FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026ESPN+

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Southeast Mo. St. 82.4% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Southeast Mo. St. won at Morehead St. 3-0 (25-23, 25-19, 25-23) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. Southeast Mo. St.'s Reagan Nelson led with 17 kills, and Harper Highfill added 15 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 8:00 PM CT · final Oct 17

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SEMO	25	25	25	3
MOREST	23	19	23	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

17 kills in 3 sets for Reagan Nelson. Southeast Mo. St. swept Morehead St.

No single rally moved win probability more than 4.3 points. Morehead St. peaked at 27% in Set 1. These are the numbers behind it. Southeast Mo. St. went in as RallyIQ's 82% pick.

Southeast Mo. St.Morehead St.

Break %+9.2 pts
36.527.3
On serve: 27/74 against 18/66 (Morehead St. sideout 63.5%).

Morehead St. above 50Southeast Mo. St. belowMax swing 4.3%

Southeast Mo. St.Morehead St.

Hitting: Southeast Mo. St. .381·Morehead St. .311
Aces: Southeast Mo. St. 6·Morehead St. 5
Serve err: Southeast Mo. St. 5·Morehead St. 10
Blocks: Southeast Mo. St. 2·Morehead St. 30 BS · 4 BA vs 0 BS · 6 BA
Digs: Southeast Mo. St. 55·Morehead St. 48

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Morehead St. above 50 · Southeast Mo. St. below

Biggest swing: 4.3% to Southeast Mo. St. — set 1, SEMO 25-23 MOREST. Kill by Katherine St. John (set by Ellie Burns). MOREST win probability 13% → 9%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SEMO 79.5%20.5% MOREST

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0

31.0%

3-1

30.1%

3-2

18.4%

Morehead St. wins

3-0

3.4%

3-1

6.9%

3-2

10.3%

SEMO break %: 45.1% vs this opp
MOREST break %: 38.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Katherine St. JohnKill+4.3%
Kill by Katherine St. John (set by Ellie Burns)
Set 1 · SEMO 25-23 MOREST · SEMO 87% → 91%
02
Jacey YoungKill+3.5%
Kill by Jacey Young (set by Ellie Burns)
Set 1 · SEMO 22-20 MOREST · SEMO 83% → 87%
03
Morehead St.Service error+3.4%
Morehead St. service error
Set 1 · SEMO 24-22 MOREST · SEMO 85% → 89%
04
Josie CertaAce+2.9%
Ace by Josie Certa on Nina Schuberth
Set 1 · SEMO 13-16 MOREST · MOREST 24% → 27%
05
Morehead St.Service error+2.9%
Morehead St. service error
Set 1 · SEMO 23-21 MOREST · SEMO 85% → 87%
06
Marin JohnsonKill+2.9%
Kill by Marin Johnson (set by Megan Holder)
Set 1 · SEMO 21-20 MOREST · SEMO 80% → 83%
07
Josie CertaAce+2.9%
Ace by Josie Certa on Nina Schuberth
Set 1 · SEMO 13-15 MOREST · MOREST 21% → 24%
08
Ella WarrickAttack error+2.8%
Attack error by Ella Warrick
Set 1 · SEMO 16-16 MOREST · SEMO 77% → 80%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Southeast Mo. St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Reagan NelsonOH	3	17	6	40	.275	1	3	1	10	0	0	0	20
2Lucy ArndtOH	3	16	1	38	.395	0	0	0	6	1	1	0.5	16.5
24Alaina LesterMB	3	7	0	12	.583	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
4Marin JohnsonOH	3	6	1	12	.417	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
22Katherine St. JohnOH	3	4	0	8	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
11Megan HolderS	3	0	0	0	–	18	1	0	7	0	0	0	1
19Jacey YoungMB	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
14Harper HighfillL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	7	1	0	15	0	0	0	1
6Ellie BurnsS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	0	2	10	0	0	0	0
8Holland GuilliamsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Nina SchuberthL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	2	5	3	0	0	0
Team totals		51	8	113	.381	45	6	5	55	5	4	2	75

Morehead St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Hollan EverettMB	3	15	3	40	.300	0	0	0	4	1	1	0.5	15.5
5Ella WarrickOH	3	9	3	35	.171	0	2	1	10	2	0	0	11
9Amelia NottMB	3	10	1	21	.429	1	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	10.5
7Kylie SharpMB	3	3	0	5	.600	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	3.5
2Haidyn CarterMB	3	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
12Josie CertaS	3	0	0	0	–	19	3	2	5	0	0	0	3
1Riley McCloskeyOH	3	7	1	16	.375	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.5	7.5
17Sydney SennettS	3	0	0	1	.000	19	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
6Courtney FitzgeraldDS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	3	11	2	0	0	0
3Tinsley BrownDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	0
Team totals		46	8	122	.311	44	5	10	48	6	6	3	65

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Southeast Mo. St. vs Morehead St.

Season series · Southeast Mo. St. leads 2-0

Fri, Oct 16, 2026Southeast Mo. St. at Morehead St. · Southeast Mo. St. won 3-0Result →
Sat, Oct 17, 2026Southeast Mo. St. at Morehead St. · Southeast Mo. St. won 3-0This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 SEMO · MOREST 3

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 SEMOMOREST 3

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 3 SEMOMOREST 2

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 SEMOMOREST 3

Bars above the line = Morehead St. leads, below = Southeast Mo. St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Southeast Mo. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	33%4/12
2	82%9/11	40%6/15
3	73%8/11	33%4/12
4	80%8/10	38%5/13
5	70%7/10	30%3/10
6	58%7/12	42%5/12
All	73%48/66	36%27/74

Morehead St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%9/16	33%4/12
2	75%9/12	25%3/12
3	53%8/15	10%1/10
4	70%7/10	27%3/11
5	64%7/11	22%2/9
6	70%7/10	42%5/12
All	64%47/74	27%18/66

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

140 rallies

#	SEMO-MOREST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	Megan Holder	aced Hollan Everett	+1.5
2	1-1	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+1.2
3	2-1	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Harper Highfill	+1.1
4	3-1	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	Reagan Nelson	aced Ella Warrick	+1.4
5	3-2	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Josie Certa	+1.1
6	3-3	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+1.6
7	4-3	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+1.2
8	4-4	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+1.3
9	5-4	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+1.2
10	5-5	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+1.3
11	5-6	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+1.9
12	6-6	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Morehead St.		+1.4
13	6-7	SEMO	MOREST	Serve err	Nina Schuberth		+1.5
14	7-7	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+1.4
15	7-8	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+1.6
16	8-8	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+1.5
17	9-8	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+1.9
18	9-9	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Josie Certa	+1.5
19	10-9	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Nina Schuberth	+1.5
20	10-10	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+1.6
21	11-10	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+1.5
22	11-11	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+1.6
23	11-12	MOREST	MOREST	Blocked	Lucy Arndt	blk Riley McCloskey, Haidyn Carter	+2.4
24	12-12	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Harper Highfill	+1.7
25	12-13	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+1.9
26	13-13	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Harper Highfill	+1.8
27	13-14	SEMO	MOREST×3	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+2.0
28	13-15	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	Josie Certa	aced Nina Schuberth	+2.9
29	13-16	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	Josie Certa	aced Nina Schuberth	+2.9
30	14-16	MOREST	SEMO×4	Serve err	Morehead St.		+1.8
31	15-16	SEMO	SEMO×4	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+2.7
32	16-16	SEMO	SEMO×4	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+2.8
33	17-16	SEMO	SEMO×4	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Nina Schuberth	+2.8
34	17-17	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+2.2
35	18-17	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+2.2
36	18-18	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+2.3
37	19-18	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Morehead St.		+2.4
38	19-19	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+2.5
39	20-19	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+2.6
40	20-20	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+2.7
41	21-20	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+2.9
42	22-20	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Jacey Young	set Ellie Burns	+3.5
43	22-21	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+2.2
44	23-21	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Morehead St.		+2.9
45	23-22	SEMO	MOREST	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+2.2
46	24-22	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Morehead St.		+3.4
47	24-23	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+2.0
48	25-23	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Ellie Burns	+4.3
Set 2
1	0-1	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	Ella Warrick		+1.3
2	1-1	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.9
3	2-1	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Harper Highfill	+1.1
4	2-2	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Josie Certa	+0.9
5	3-2	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Katherine St. John	set Megan Holder	+0.9
6	3-3	SEMO	MOREST	Blocked	Marin Johnson	blk Haidyn Carter, Hollan Everett	+0.9
7	4-3	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.9
8	4-4	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+1.0
9	5-4	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Morehead St.		+0.9
10	5-5	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+1.0
11	6-5	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.9
12	6-6	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+1.0
13	6-7	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+1.5
14	7-7	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+1.1
15	7-8	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+1.2
16	8-8	MOREST	SEMO×3	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+1.1
17	9-8	SEMO	SEMO×3	Blocked	Amelia Nott	blk Lucy Arndt, Alaina Lester	+1.4
18	10-8	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	Reagan Nelson	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+1.3
19	10-9	SEMO	MOREST	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+1.0
20	11-9	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Morehead St.		+1.0
21	11-10	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+1.0
22	12-10	MOREST	SEMO×3	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+1.0
23	13-10	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Lucy Arndt		+1.2
24	14-10	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Riley McCloskey		+1.0
25	14-11	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.7
26	15-11	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+0.8
27	16-11	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.8
28	16-12	SEMO	MOREST	Serve err	Nina Schuberth		+0.5
29	17-12	MOREST	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.6
30	18-12	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	Marin Johnson	aced Tinsley Brown	+0.5
31	19-12	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.3
32	19-13	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+0.1
33	19-14	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+0.3
34	20-14	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.4
35	20-15	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.2
36	21-15	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester		+0.3
37	21-16	SEMO	MOREST	Serve err	Reagan Nelson		+0.2
38	21-17	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Amelia Nott	+0.4
39	22-17	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.5
40	22-18	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.3
41	23-18	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.4
42	24-18	SEMO	SEMO	Blocked	Hollan Everett	blk Marin Johnson, Jacey Young	+0.2
43	24-19	SEMO	MOREST	Serve err	Ellie Burns		·
44	25-19	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Reagan Nelson	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson		+0.5
2	1-1	SEMO	MOREST×3	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.4
3	1-2	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+0.6
4	1-3	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	Ella Warrick	aced Lucy Arndt	+0.7
5	2-3	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Morehead St.		+0.5
6	2-4	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.5
7	3-4	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.5
8	3-5	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.6
9	4-5	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.5
10	4-6	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.6
11	5-6	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+0.5
12	5-7	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+0.6
13	6-7	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Morehead St.		+0.5
14	6-8	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+0.6
15	6-9	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.8
16	7-9	MOREST	SEMO	Serve err	Morehead St.		+0.5
17	7-10	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.7
18	8-10	MOREST	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+0.6
19	9-10	SEMO	SEMO×3	Ace	Reagan Nelson	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.8
20	10-10	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+0.8
21	10-11	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.7
22	11-11	MOREST	SEMO×4	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.6
23	12-11	SEMO	SEMO×4	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Harper Highfill	+0.8
24	13-11	SEMO	SEMO×4	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.7
25	14-11	SEMO	SEMO×4	Ace	Harper Highfill	aced Ella Warrick	+0.6
26	14-12	SEMO	MOREST×3	Bad set	Megan Holder		+0.4
27	14-13	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+0.7
28	14-14	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.9
29	15-14	MOREST	SEMO	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+0.7
30	16-14	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Harper Highfill	+0.8
31	16-15	SEMO	MOREST	Serve err	Ellie Burns		+0.6
32	16-16	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick		+1.0
33	17-16	MOREST	SEMO×3	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+0.8
34	18-16	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.9
35	19-16	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.8
36	19-17	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+0.5
37	19-18	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.9
38	20-18	MOREST	SEMO	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.8
39	20-19	SEMO	MOREST×3	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.7
40	20-20	MOREST	MOREST×3	Blocked	Reagan Nelson	blk Amelia Nott, Kylie Sharp	+1.3
41	20-21	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	Josie Certa	aced Nina Schuberth	+1.6
42	21-21	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Harper Highfill	+1.1
43	22-21	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Nina Schuberth	+1.6
44	22-22	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+1.3
45	23-22	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+1.4
46	23-23	SEMO	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+1.5
47	24-23	MOREST	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Alaina Lester	+1.8
48	25-23	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+2.1

Score shown after each rally, Southeast Mo. St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Southeast Mo. St. def. Morehead St. 3–0

17 kills in 3 sets for Reagan Nelson. Southeast Mo. St. swept Morehead St.