Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 9, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Morehead St. def. Southern Ind. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Southern Ind. 63.6% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Morehead St. won at Southern Ind. 3-2 (18-25, 25-21, 25-23, 25-27, 17-15) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Morehead St.'s Hollan Everett led with 21 kills, and Ella Warrick added 24 digs.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set12345Sets
MOREST18252525173
S IND25212327152

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Hollan Everett had 21 kills as Morehead St. won in five.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Morehead St.'s RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ had Southern Ind. at 64% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Morehead St. 2–6 Southern Ind.

    The bottom for Morehead St., then 23 of the next 38 rallies and the set, 25–21.

    Morehead St. 14% → 39%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Morehead St. 12–9 Southern Ind.

    4 straight Southern Ind. kills turned a 9–12 deficit into a 13–12 lead. The match swung to Southern Ind.

    Morehead St. 85% → 29%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Morehead St. 14–14 Southern Ind.

    Morehead St. won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 17–15 and win the match 3–2.

    Morehead St. 50% → >99%

Southern Ind. above 50Morehead St. belowMax swing 28.6%

Morehead St.Southern Ind.

Sideout %
Morehead St. 54.5·Southern Ind. 55.0
Break %
Morehead St. 45.0·Southern Ind. 45.5
Hitting
Morehead St. .186·Southern Ind. .154
Longest run
Morehead St. 5·Southern Ind. 9

Hollan Everett
5 of her kills came in the stretches above. 21 K, .169, 22 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern Ind. above 50 · Morehead St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+28.6% MORESTrally 221 · set 5

Biggest swing: 28.6% to Morehead St. — set 5, MOREST 17-15 S IND. Kill by Hollan Everett (set by Josie Certa). S IND win probability 29% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MOREST 41.0%59.0% S IND

Morehead St. wins

3-0
9.1%
3-1
15.0%
3-2
16.9%

Southern Ind. wins

3-0
16.7%
3-1
22.5%
3-2
19.8%
MOREST break %
42.8% vs this opp
S IND break %
44.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Hollan EverettKill+28.6%

    Kill by Hollan Everett (set by Josie Certa)

    Set 5 · MOREST 17-15 S IND · MOREST 71% → 100%

  2. 02

    Aubrey Fair stuffed by Kylie Sharp & Amelia Nott

    Set 5 · MOREST 14-13 S IND · MOREST 44% → 71%

  3. 03
    Ashby WillisAttack error+26.9%

    Attack error by Ashby Willis

    Set 5 · MOREST 16-15 S IND · MOREST 44% → 71%

  4. 04

    Amelia Nott stuffed by Mackenzie Nettles & Aysa Thomas

    Set 5 · MOREST 14-15 S IND · S IND 50% → 76%

  5. 05
    Morehead St.Service error+21.5%

    Morehead St. service error

    Set 5 · MOREST 14-14 S IND · S IND 29% → 50%

  6. 06
    Aysa ThomasBad set+20.3%

    Bad set by Aysa Thomas

    Set 5 · MOREST 15-15 S IND · MOREST 24% → 44%

  7. 07
    Aubrey FairKill+20.0%

    Kill by Aubrey Fair (set by Aysa Thomas)

    Set 5 · MOREST 12-13 S IND · S IND 51% → 71%

  8. 08
    Aubrey FairKill+17.1%

    Kill by Aubrey Fair (set by Carley Wright)

    Set 5 · MOREST 12-12 S IND · S IND 34% → 51%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
521877.1691006002122
513332.3130147014317
514547.191113242010.515.5
58422.18200060111.59.5
5213.33324111500003
5026-.333100101222
5106.167000611223
5000–021600002
5000–5141510001
5001.0002300900000
1000–000200000
Team totals5923194.1865561397641210110
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
521873.178012230111.523.5
520646.30421117102122
55416.063000000216
52210.00055221700215
5001.0000131620001
5000–011300001
52311-.09100020052.54.5
5000–3012100000
413636.1940002002114
23421-.048000200003
Team totals6633214.1546061010361148111

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Morehead St. vs Southern Ind.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MOREST · S IND 9

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 5 MORESTS IND 9

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 4 MORESTS IND 5

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 3 MORESTS IND 3

Set 4

25-27

Longest run 4 MORESTS IND 3

Set 5

17-15

Longest run 3 MORESTS IND 5

Bars above the line = Southern Ind. leads, below = Morehead St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Morehead St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%12/19
47%8/17
2
48%11/23
50%11/22
3
44%11/25
27%4/15
4
79%11/14
48%10/21
5
64%9/14
44%8/18
6
41%7/17
50%8/16
All
54%61/112
45%49/109

Southern Ind.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
44%8/18
2
58%11/19
45%9/20
3
55%11/20
62%18/29
4
63%10/16
21%3/14
5
48%10/21
29%4/14
6
58%7/12
53%9/17
All
55%60/109
46%51/112

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

221 rallies

#MOREST-S INDSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Sydney Sennett+1.9
21-1MORESTS IND×3Serve errMorehead St.+1.8
31-2S INDS IND×3AceSouthern Ind.aced Ella Warrick+2.3
41-3S INDS IND×3KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+2.2
52-3S INDMORESTKillSydney Sennettset Hollan Everett+1.7
62-4MORESTS IND×3Serve errMorehead St.+1.8
72-5S INDS IND×3Attack errSydney Sennett+2.1
82-6S INDS IND×3Attack errHollan Everett+1.9
93-6S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Courtney Fitzgerald+1.4
103-7MORESTS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+1.5
114-7S INDMORESTAttack errCarley Wright+1.4
125-7MORESTMORESTAttack errLeah Coleman+2.1
135-8MORESTS INDServe errMorehead St.+1.8
146-8S INDMOREST×5KillElla Warrickset Sydney Sennett+1.7
157-8MORESTMOREST×5Attack errMackenzie Nettles+2.4
168-8MORESTMOREST×5KillSydney Sennettset Josie Certa+2.7
179-8MORESTMOREST×5KillAmelia Nottset Josie Certa+2.8
1810-8MORESTMOREST×5BlockedLeah Colemanblk Kylie Sharp, Amelia Nott+2.9
1910-9MORESTS INDKillAysa Thomas+2.2
2010-10S INDS INDBlockedElla Warrickblk Mackenzie Nettles, Aysa Thomas+2.9
2111-10S INDMORESTKillAmelia Nottset Josie Certa+2.4
2211-11MORESTS INDKillAshby Willisset Carley Wright+2.4
2311-12S INDS INDAttack errHollan Everett+3.0
2412-12S INDMORESTKillAmelia Nottset Josie Certa+2.4
2512-13MORESTS INDServe errMorehead St.+2.5
2613-13S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+2.5
2713-14MORESTS IND×9Attack errRiley McCloskey+2.6
2813-15S INDS IND×9KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+3.1
2913-16S INDS IND×9KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+2.8
3013-17S INDS IND×9Attack errVita Sensenbrenner+2.4
3113-18S INDS IND×9BlockedHollan Everettblk Carley Wright, Vita Sensenbrenner+1.9
3213-19S INDS IND×9KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+1.3
3313-20S INDS IND×9Attack errHollan Everett+0.8
3413-21S INDS IND×9KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.4
3513-22S INDS IND×9KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.2
3614-22S INDMOREST×3Serve errSouthern Ind.+0.1
3715-22MORESTMOREST×3Attack errLeah Coleman+0.1
3816-22MORESTMOREST×3AceMorehead St.+0.3
3916-23MORESTS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+0.4
4017-23S INDMORESTKillRiley McCloskeyset Sydney Sennett+0.1
4117-24MORESTS INDBlockedElla Warrickblk Carley Wright, Vita Sensenbrenner+0.2
4218-24S INDMORESTAttack errLeah Coleman·
4318-25MORESTS INDKillLeah Colemanset Aysa Thomas+0.1
Set 2
11-0MORESTMORESTAttack errAshby Willis+2.0
21-1MORESTS INDServe errMorehead St.+1.6
32-1S INDMORESTAttack errVita Sensenbrenner+1.7
42-2MORESTS IND×5KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+1.6
52-3S INDS IND×5Attack errHaidyn Carter+2.0
62-4S INDS IND×5Attack errHaidyn Carter+2.0
72-5S INDS IND×5KillLeah Coleman+1.8
82-6S INDS IND×5Attack errHollan Everett+1.7
93-6S INDMOREST×3KillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+1.2
104-6MORESTMOREST×3KillRiley McCloskeyset Sydney Sennett+1.8
115-6MORESTMOREST×3Attack errCarley Wright+2.0
125-7MORESTS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+1.7
136-7S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Sydney Sennett+1.7
146-8MORESTS INDKillLeah Colemanset Aysa Thomas+1.7
157-8S INDMOREST×4KillRiley McCloskeyset Sydney Sennett+1.7
168-8MORESTMOREST×4Attack errAysa Thomas+2.3
179-8MORESTMOREST×4AceMorehead St.aced Carley Wright+2.5
1810-8MORESTMOREST×4Attack errMackenzie Nettles+2.6
1910-9MORESTS INDServe errMorehead St.+1.9
2011-9S INDMORESTKillRiley McCloskeyset Sydney Sennett+2.1
2112-9MORESTMORESTKillAmelia Nott+2.6
2212-10MORESTS IND×4KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+1.8
2312-11S INDS IND×4BlockedAmelia Nottblk Ashby Willis+2.6
2412-12S INDS IND×4AceSouthern Ind.aced Kylie Sharp+2.7
2512-13S INDS IND×4Attack errAmelia Nott+2.7
2613-13S INDMOREST×4KillElla Warrickset Josie Certa+2.2
2714-13MORESTMOREST×4BlockedCarley Wrightblk Hollan Everett, Amelia Nott+3.0
2815-13MORESTMOREST×4Attack errAshby Willis+3.1
2916-13MORESTMOREST×4AceMorehead St.aced Kerigan Fehr+3.0
3016-14MORESTS IND×3Attack errHollan Everett+2.0
3116-15S INDS IND×3KillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+3.0
3216-16S INDS IND×3AceSouthern Ind.aced Courtney Fitzgerald+3.2
3317-16S INDMOREST×4KillKylie Sharpset Josie Certa+2.8
3418-16MORESTMOREST×4AceMorehead St.+3.6
3519-16MORESTMOREST×4KillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+3.4
3620-16MORESTMOREST×4BlockedVita Sensenbrennerblk Haidyn Carter+2.8
3720-17MORESTS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+1.6
3821-17S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+2.3
3921-18MORESTS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+1.5
4021-19S INDS INDBlockedRiley McCloskeyblk Mackenzie Nettles, Aubrey Fair+2.7
4122-19S INDMORESTAttack errAubrey Fair+3.2
4223-19MORESTMORESTKillElla Warrick+2.8
4323-20MORESTS INDKillMackenzie Nettlesset Aysa Thomas+1.1
4424-20S INDMORESTServe errSouthern Ind.+2.0
4524-21MORESTS INDServe errMorehead St.+0.6
4625-21S INDMORESTKillElla Warrickset Courtney Fitzgerald+1.5
Set 3
11-0S INDMORESTKillAmelia Nottset Josie Certa+2.5
21-1MORESTS INDAttack errHollan Everett+2.4
32-1S INDMOREST×3BlockedCarley Wrightblk Haidyn Carter, Hollan Everett+2.6
43-1MORESTMOREST×3AceMorehead St.+3.3
54-1MORESTMOREST×3KillRiley McCloskeyset Sydney Sennett+3.3
64-2MORESTS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+2.4
75-2S INDMORESTKillRiley McCloskeyset Sydney Sennett+2.7
86-2MORESTMORESTKillElla Warrickset Sydney Sennett+3.3
96-3MORESTS INDServe errMorehead St.+2.3
107-3S INDMORESTKillElla Warrickset Sydney Sennett+2.7
117-4MORESTS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+2.3
127-5S INDS INDKillAubrey Fair+3.3
138-5S INDMORESTKillAmelia Nottset Sydney Sennett+2.9
148-6MORESTS IND×3KillMackenzie Nettlesset Aysa Thomas+2.6
158-7S INDS IND×3AceSouthern Ind.aced Ella Warrick+3.6
168-8S INDS IND×3Attack errAmelia Nott+3.7
179-8S INDMOREST×3Serve errSouthern Ind.+3.1
1810-8MORESTMOREST×3KillAmelia Nottset Josie Certa+4.0
1911-8MORESTMOREST×3KillAmelia Nottset Josie Certa+3.9
2011-9MORESTS INDServe errMorehead St.+2.8
2111-10S INDS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+3.9
2212-10S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+3.4
2312-11MORESTS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+3.1
2413-11S INDMORESTServe errSouthern Ind.+3.5
2513-12MORESTS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+3.2
2613-13S INDS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+4.4
2714-13S INDMORESTKillRiley McCloskeyset Sydney Sennett+3.7
2815-13MORESTMORESTKillElla Warrickset Haidyn Carter+4.8
2915-14MORESTS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+3.5
3015-15S INDS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+4.8
3116-15S INDMORESTServe errSouthern Ind.+4.1
3217-15MORESTMORESTBlockedMackenzie Nettlesblk Amelia Nott+5.3
3317-16MORESTS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+3.8
3417-17S INDS INDAceSouthern Ind.+5.3
3518-17S INDMORESTAttack errAubrey Fair+4.7
3618-18MORESTS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+4.5
3719-18S INDMORESTBlockedAshby Willisblk Kylie Sharp+5.0
3819-19MORESTS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+4.8
3919-20S INDS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+6.5
4020-20S INDMORESTKillAmelia Nottset Josie Certa+5.2
4121-20MORESTMORESTKillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+7.6
4221-21MORESTS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+5.8
4322-21S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+6.9
4422-22MORESTS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+6.6
4523-22S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+8.2
4624-22MORESTMORESTBlockedCarley Wrightblk Ella Warrick, Haidyn Carter+10.4
4724-23MORESTS INDKillCarley Wrightset Audrey Small+4.8
4825-23S INDMORESTAttack errAshby Willis+11.2
Set 4
10-1MORESTS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+2.7
21-1S INDMORESTKillAmelia Nottset Josie Certa+2.8
31-2MORESTS INDServe errMorehead St.+2.8
42-2S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+2.9
52-3MORESTS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+2.8
63-3S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Sydney Sennett+2.9
73-4MORESTS INDKillAubrey Fairset Audrey Small+2.9
84-4S INDMOREST×3KillElla Warrickset Sydney Sennett+3.0
95-4MORESTMOREST×3KillAmelia Nottset Sydney Sennett+4.0
106-4MORESTMOREST×3BlockedAshby Willisblk Amelia Nott, Riley McCloskey+4.1
116-5MORESTS INDServe errMorehead St.+3.1
127-5S INDMORESTBlockedAshby Willisblk Riley McCloskey+3.3
137-6MORESTS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+3.1
148-6S INDMORESTKillElla Warrickset Courtney Fitzgerald+3.4
158-7MORESTS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+3.2
168-8S INDS INDBad setJosie Certa+4.2
179-8S INDMORESTAttack errCarley Wright+3.6
189-9MORESTS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+3.4
1910-9S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+3.7
2010-10MORESTS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+3.5
2110-11S INDS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+4.5
2211-11S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Ella Warrick+3.7
2312-11MORESTMORESTAttack errAubrey Fair+4.9
2412-12MORESTS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+3.8
2512-13S INDS INDAttack errRiley McCloskey+4.9
2613-13S INDMORESTServe errSouthern Ind.+4.0
2713-14MORESTS IND×3Attack errElla Warrick+4.0
2813-15S INDS IND×3AceSouthern Ind.+4.9
2913-16S INDS IND×3KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+4.4
3014-16S INDMORESTKillElla Warrickset Sydney Sennett+3.1
3115-16MORESTMORESTAttack errAshby Willis+4.8
3215-17MORESTS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+4.3
3315-18S INDS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+4.8
3416-18S INDMORESTKillAmelia Nottset Sydney Sennett+3.3
3517-18MORESTMORESTAttack errVita Sensenbrenner+5.3
3617-19MORESTS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+4.8
3718-19S INDMOREST×4KillHollan Everettset Sydney Sennett+4.4
3819-19MORESTMOREST×4Attack errVita Sensenbrenner+6.9
3920-19MORESTMOREST×4KillHollan Everettset Sydney Sennett+7.8
4021-19MORESTMOREST×4Attack errAubrey Fair+8.0
4121-20MORESTS IND×3KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+5.3
4221-21S INDS IND×3KillCarley Wrightset Audrey Small+8.4
4321-22S INDS IND×3KillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+9.4
4422-22S INDMORESTKillHollan Everettset Sydney Sennett+7.4
4522-23MORESTS INDBlockedRiley McCloskeyblk Aubrey Fair, Mackenzie Nettles+8.9
4623-23S INDMORESTAttack errAysa Thomas+8.7
4724-23MORESTMORESTKillRiley McCloskeyset Sydney Sennett+15.1
4824-24MORESTS INDAttack errElla Warrick+12.1
4924-25S INDS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+14.4
5025-25S INDMORESTKillElla Warrickset Sydney Sennett+11.4
5125-26MORESTS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+11.4
5225-27S INDS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+12.7
Set 5
11-0S INDMOREST×3KillAmelia Nottset Josie Certa+6.8
22-0MORESTMOREST×3KillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+8.7
33-0MORESTMOREST×3KillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+8.5
43-1MORESTS IND×5Serve errMorehead St.+6.0
53-2S INDS IND×5KillAysa Thomas+8.4
63-3S INDS IND×5Attack errHollan Everett+8.9
73-4S INDS IND×5KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+9.1
83-5S INDS IND×5KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+8.8
94-5S INDMORESTServe errSouthern Ind.+6.7
104-6MORESTS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+7.2
114-7S INDS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+8.2
125-7S INDMOREST×3Serve errSouthern Ind.+5.7
136-7MORESTMOREST×3KillElla Warrickset Courtney Fitzgerald+9.0
147-7MORESTMOREST×3AceMorehead St.aced Kerigan Fehr+10.7
157-8MORESTS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+9.0
168-8S INDMORESTServe errSouthern Ind.+9.1
179-8MORESTMORESTAttack errAubrey Fair+12.8
189-9MORESTS INDBlockedElla Warrickblk Ashby Willis, Mackenzie Nettles+9.9
1910-9S INDMOREST×3KillElla Warrickset Sydney Sennett+11.2
2011-9MORESTMOREST×3KillElla Warrickset Courtney Fitzgerald+14.3
2112-9MORESTMOREST×3Bad setAysa Thomas+12.5
2212-10MORESTS IND×4KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+6.7
2312-11S INDS IND×4KillAubrey Fair+12.6
2412-12S INDS IND×4KillAubrey Fairset Carley Wright+17.1
2512-13S INDS IND×4KillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+20.0
2613-13S INDMORESTServe errSouthern Ind.+15.5
2714-13MORESTMORESTBlockedAubrey Fairblk Kylie Sharp, Amelia Nott+26.9
2814-14MORESTS INDServe errMorehead St.+21.5
2914-15S INDS INDBlockedAmelia Nottblk Mackenzie Nettles, Aysa Thomas+25.7
3015-15S INDMOREST×3Bad setAysa Thomas+20.3
3116-15MORESTMOREST×3Attack errAshby Willis+26.9
3217-15MORESTMOREST×3KillHollan Everettset Josie Certa+28.6

Score shown after each rally, Morehead St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).