Southern Ind. def. Morehead State 3-0 Volleyball (Oct 10)

FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Southern Ind. 61.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 1:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Southern Ind. beat visiting Morehead St. 3-0 (25-18, 26-24, 25-23) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026.

Data through Nov 3, 4:45 PM CT · final Oct 10

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MOREST	18	24	23	0
S IND	25	26	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Southern Ind. trailed 10–17 in the second and still took the set, then the match.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Southern Ind.'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Southern Ind. went in as RallyIQ's 62% pick.

Turning point 1: Set 2 · Morehead St. 18–13 Southern Ind.
Southern Ind. scored 7 straight to turn a 13–18 deficit into a 20–18 lead.
Southern Ind. 63% → 84%
Turning point 2: Set 2 · Morehead St. 24–22 Southern Ind.
Southern Ind. closed it, 4 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 26–24 and lead 2–0.
Southern Ind. 63% → 92%
Turning point 3: Set 3 · Morehead St. 23–21 Southern Ind.
Southern Ind. won 4 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–23 and win the match 3–0.
Southern Ind. 85% → >99%

Southern Ind. above 50Morehead St. belowMax swing 8.8%

Morehead St.Southern Ind.

Sideout %: Morehead St. 46.7·Southern Ind. 54.5
Break %: Morehead St. 45.5·Southern Ind. 53.3
Hitting: Morehead St. .071·Southern Ind. .175
Longest run: Morehead St. 5·Southern Ind. 7

Carley Wright
10 kills on .077, 13.5 points; 3 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern Ind. above 50 · Morehead St. below

Biggest swing: 8.8% to Southern Ind. — set 2, MOREST 24-24 S IND. Attack error by Amelia Nott. S IND win probability 67% → 75%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MOREST 41.0%59.0% S IND

Morehead St. wins

3-0

9.1%

3-1

15.0%

3-2

16.9%

Southern Ind. wins

3-0

16.7%

3-1

22.5%

3-2

19.8%

MOREST break %: 42.8% vs this opp
S IND break %: 44.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Amelia NottAttack error+8.8%
Attack error by Amelia Nott
Set 2 · MOREST 24-24 S IND · S IND 67% → 75%
02
Hollan EverettAttack error+8.3%
Attack error by Hollan Everett
Set 2 · MOREST 24-25 S IND · S IND 75% → 84%
03
Carley WrightKill+7.9%
Kill by Carley Wright (set by Aysa Thomas)
Set 2 · MOREST 24-26 S IND · S IND 84% → 92%
04
Morehead St.Ace+5.8%
Morehead St. ace on Kerigan Fehr
Set 2 · MOREST 23-21 S IND · MOREST 29% → 34%
05
Morehead St.Ace+5.7%
Morehead St. ace on Kerigan Fehr
Set 2 · MOREST 22-21 S IND · MOREST 23% → 29%
06
Ella WarrickKill+5.4%
Kill by Ella Warrick (set by Josie Certa)
Set 2 · MOREST 24-22 S IND · MOREST 31% → 37%
07
Southern Ind.Ace+4.9%
Southern Ind. ace on Tinsley Brown
Set 3 · MOREST 23-24 S IND · S IND 90% → 95%
08
Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+4.8%
Point Morehead St. (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 2 · MOREST 21-21 S IND · MOREST 18% → 23%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Morehead St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Ella WarrickOH	3	8	4	32	.125	0	2	0	11	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
2Haidyn CarterMB	3	9	3	17	.353	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	10
14Hollan EverettMB	3	4	8	36	-.111	0	0	0	6	0	2	1	2.5	6.5
9Amelia NottMB	3	4	2	17	.118	1	2	2	2	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
7Kylie SharpMB	3	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
12Josie CertaS	3	0	0	2	.000	8	2	3	8	0	0	0	0	2
1Riley McCloskeyOH	3	3	3	15	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
3Tinsley BrownDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	2	10	3	0	0	0	3
6Courtney FitzgeraldDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	13	5	0	0	0	1
17Sydney SennettS	3	0	0	0	–	17	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
13Norah CampbellDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	21	126	.071	27	10	10	61	8	2	6	5	65

Southern Ind.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Carley WrightOH	3	10	7	39	.077	0	3	1	10	1	1	0.5	13.5
6Ashby WillisOH	3	10	3	33	.212	1	0	1	9	0	3	1.5	11.5
10Vita SensenbrennerMB	3	3	0	10	.300	1	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	3.5
4Kerigan FehrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	3	0	7	5	0	0	3
2Aysa ThomasS	3	1	0	5	.200	25	0	3	14	0	2	1	2
17Aspen JankowskiS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
3Aubrey FairOH	3	10	4	31	.194	0	0	0	2	2	1	0.5	10.5
13Mackenzie NettlesOH	3	3	1	8	.250	0	0	0	2	0	4	2	5
5Audrey SmallL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	1	16	1	0	0	1
Team totals		37	15	126	.175	33	8	6	63	10	12	6	76

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Morehead St. vs Southern Ind.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Fri, Oct 9, 2026Morehead St. at Southern Ind. · Morehead St. won 3-2Result →
Sat, Oct 10, 2026Morehead St. at Southern Ind. · Southern Ind. won 3-0This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MOREST · S IND 7

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 MORESTS IND 5

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 4 MORESTS IND 7

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 5 MORESTS IND 5

Bars above the line = Southern Ind. leads, below = Morehead St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Morehead St.

No clean sets to split.

Southern Ind.

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

141 rallies

#	MOREST-S IND	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	S IND	S IND×5	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+2.2
2	0-2	S IND	S IND×5	Kill	Vita Sensenbrenner	set Aysa Thomas	+2.2
3	0-3	S IND	S IND×5	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Kerigan Fehr	+2.1
4	0-4	S IND	S IND×5	Blocked	Hollan Everett	blk Vita Sensenbrenner, Aysa Thomas	+1.9
5	0-5	S IND	S IND×5	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+1.7
6	1-5	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Josie Certa	+1.2
7	2-5	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Kerigan Fehr	+1.8
8	2-6	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.5
9	2-7	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Kylie Sharp		+1.7
10	3-7	S IND	MOREST	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+1.2
11	3-8	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.4
12	3-9	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+1.5
13	4-9	S IND	MOREST	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+1.0
14	5-9	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Aubrey Fair	+1.5
15	5-10	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Ashby Willis	+1.4
16	5-11	S IND	S IND	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+1.5
17	6-11	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+1.0
18	6-12	MOREST	S IND	Serve err	Morehead St.		+1.2
19	7-12	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+1.0
20	7-13	MOREST	S IND	Serve err	Morehead St.		+1.2
21	8-13	S IND	MOREST	Attack err	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
22	8-14	MOREST	S IND	Blocked	Hollan Everett	blk Ashby Willis, Aysa Thomas	+1.2
23	9-14	S IND	MOREST	Attack err	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
24	9-15	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Vita Sensenbrenner	set Aysa Thomas	+1.2
25	9-16	S IND	S IND	Attack err	Haidyn Carter		+1.1
26	10-16	S IND	MOREST	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+0.6
27	10-17	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Audrey Small	+0.8
28	11-17	S IND	MOREST×3	Attack err	Carley Wright	set Vita Sensenbrenner	+0.6
29	12-17	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Vita Sensenbrenner	+1.0
30	13-17	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Aubrey Fair	+1.5
31	13-18	MOREST	S IND	Serve err	Morehead St.		+1.5
32	13-19	S IND	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair		+1.3
33	14-19	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.7
34	14-20	MOREST	S IND	Blocked	Riley McCloskey	blk Mackenzie Nettles, Aubrey Fair	+1.0
35	14-21	S IND	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair		+0.7
36	15-21	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.3
37–38	16-22		MOREST · S IND	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.3
39	16-23	MOREST	S IND	Blocked	Amelia Nott	blk Ashby Willis, Mackenzie Nettles	+0.4
40	17-23	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.1
41	18-23	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Carley Wright	+0.3
42	18-24	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+0.5
43	18-25	S IND	S IND	Kill	Vita Sensenbrenner		+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Kerigan Fehr	+2.1
2	2-0	MOREST	MOREST	Blocked	Carley Wright	blk Hollan Everett	+2.1
3	2-1	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.6
4	3-1	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+1.7
5	4-1	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Aubrey Fair		+2.2
6	4-2	MOREST	S IND	Serve err	Morehead St.		+1.6
7	5-2	S IND	MOREST	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+1.8
8	5-3	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.6
9	6-3	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+1.8
10	6-4	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.7
11	6-5	S IND	S IND	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+2.2
12	7-5	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick		+1.9
13	8-5	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Kerigan Fehr	+2.4
14	8-6	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.7
15	9-6	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Riley McCloskey	+1.9
16	10-6	MOREST	MOREST	Blocked	Ashby Willis	blk Kylie Sharp, Amelia Nott	+2.3
17	10-7	MOREST	S IND	Serve err	Morehead St.		+1.6
18	10-8	S IND	S IND	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+2.3
19	11-8	S IND	MOREST	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+2.1
20	11-9	MOREST	S IND	Attack err	Hollan Everett	set Courtney Fitzgerald	+1.8
21	12-9	S IND	MOREST×3	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+2.1
22	13-9	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Kylie Sharp	set Amelia Nott	+2.5
23	14-9	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Carley Wright		+2.2
24	14-10	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+1.4
25	15-10	S IND	MOREST×3	Kill	Hollan Everett		+1.8
26	16-10	MOREST	MOREST×3	Blocked	Carley Wright	blk Hollan Everett	+1.8
27	17-10	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Aubrey Fair		+1.3
28	17-11	MOREST	S IND×3	Serve err	Morehead St.		+0.7
29	17-12	S IND	S IND×3	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+1.2
30	17-13	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Mackenzie Nettles	set Aysa Thomas	+1.6
31	18-13	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+1.8
32	18-14	MOREST	S IND×7	Serve err	Morehead St.		+1.3
33	18-15	S IND	S IND×7	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+2.1
34	18-16	S IND	S IND×7	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+2.7
35	18-17	S IND	S IND×7	Blocked	Riley McCloskey	blk Ashby Willis, Mackenzie Nettles	+3.3
36	18-18	S IND	S IND×7	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+3.8
37	18-19	S IND	S IND×7	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+4.0
38	18-20	S IND	S IND×7	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Tinsley Brown	+3.8
39	19-20	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+2.7
40	19-21	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+3.3
41	20-21	S IND	MOREST×4	Attack err	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+2.8
42	21-21		MOREST	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+4.8
43	22-21	MOREST	MOREST×4	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Kerigan Fehr	+5.7
44	23-21	MOREST	MOREST×4	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Kerigan Fehr	+5.8
45	23-22	MOREST	S IND	Attack err	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+3.3
46	24-22	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+5.4
47	24-23	MOREST	S IND×4	Kill	Carley Wright		+3.2
48	24-24	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+8.8
49	24-25	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+8.3
50	24-26	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+7.9
Set 3
1	1-0	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+1.0
2	1-1	MOREST	S IND×3	Serve err	Morehead St.		+1.0
3	1-2	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+1.2
4	1-3	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Haidyn Carter		+1.2
5	2-3	S IND	MOREST×3	Attack err	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+0.9
6	3-3	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+1.3
7	4-3	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Haidyn Carter		+1.3
8	4-4	MOREST	S IND	Attack err	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+1.0
9	5-4	S IND	MOREST×3	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+1.1
10	6-4	MOREST	MOREST×3	Ace	Morehead St.	aced Audrey Small	+1.4
11	7-4	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+1.4
12	7-5	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Vita Sensenbrenner	+1.0
13	8-5	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Sydney Sennett	+1.1
14	8-6	MOREST	S IND×4	Serve err	Morehead St.		+1.0
15	8-7	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Audrey Small	+1.4
16	8-8	S IND	S IND×4	Attack err	Riley McCloskey		+1.4
17	8-9	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+1.5
18	9-9	S IND	MOREST×3	Serve err	Southern Ind.		+1.2
19	10-9	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Aubrey Fair		+1.6
20	11-9		MOREST	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.6
21	11-10	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+1.2
22	12-10	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+1.3
23	12-11	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.2
24	12-12	S IND	S IND	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+1.6
25	13-12	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+1.4
26	14-12		MOREST	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.8
27	14-13	MOREST	S IND	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Aysa Thomas	+1.3
28	15-13	S IND	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Josie Certa	+1.5
29	15-14	MOREST	S IND×3	Kill	Ashby Willis	set Audrey Small	+1.4
30	15-15	S IND	S IND×3	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+1.9
31	15-16	S IND	S IND×3	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+1.9
32	16-16	S IND	MOREST×5	Blocked	Carley Wright	blk Haidyn Carter, Hollan Everett	+1.5
33	17-16	MOREST	MOREST×5	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+2.1
34	18-16		MOREST	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+2.2
35	19-16	MOREST	MOREST×5	Blocked	Carley Wright	blk Ella Warrick, Haidyn Carter	+2.0
36	20-16	MOREST	MOREST×5	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+1.7
37	20-17	MOREST	S IND×5	Kill	Aysa Thomas		+0.9
38	20-18	S IND	S IND×5	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+1.7
39	20-19	S IND	S IND×5	Blocked	Ella Warrick	blk Carley Wright, Mackenzie Nettles	+2.2
40	20-20	S IND	S IND×5	Kill	Carley Wright	set Audrey Small	+2.6
41	20-21	S IND	S IND×5	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Tinsley Brown	+2.8
42	21-21	S IND	MOREST×3	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+2.2
43	22-21	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+3.4
44	23-21	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Aubrey Fair		+3.4
45	23-22	MOREST	S IND×4	Kill	Carley Wright	set Aysa Thomas	+2.0
46	23-23	S IND	S IND×4	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Courtney Fitzgerald	+3.8
47	23-24	S IND	S IND×4	Ace	Southern Ind.	aced Tinsley Brown	+4.9
48	23-25	S IND	S IND×4	Kill	Aubrey Fair	set Aysa Thomas	+4.7

Score shown after each rally, Morehead St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Southern Ind. def. Morehead St. 3–0

Southern Ind. trailed 10–17 in the second and still took the set, then the match.