Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Southern Ind. def. Western Ill. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Southern Ind. 95.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Southern Ind. beat visiting Western Ill. 3-1 (25-14, 25-13, 23-25, 25-15) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Southern Ind.'s Ashby Willis and Carley Wright led with 16 kills each, and Audrey Small added 22 digs.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set1234Sets
W ILL141325151
S IND252523253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Western Ill. hit .109. Southern Ind. held them there all match.

The biggest single-rally swing was 1.2 points, and Western Ill.'s high was 6% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Southern Ind. at 95%.

Western Ill.Southern Ind.
  • Break %+22.6 pts
    27.950.5

    49 of 97 on serve vs 19 of 68, so Western Ill.'s sideout was 49.5%.

  • Hitting+.227
    .109.336

    59 kills, 14 errors vs 31 kills, 17 errors.

  • Longest run+0
    55

    5 straight Southern Ind. points in the second set stretched a 14–11 lead to 19–11. Final score of the set: 25–13.

Southern Ind. above 50Western Ill. belowMax swing 1.2%

Western Ill.Southern Ind.

Aces
Western Ill. 9·Southern Ind. 9
Serve err
Western Ill. 11·Southern Ind. 11
Blocks
Western Ill. 3·Southern Ind. 60 BS · 6 BA vs 3 BS · 6 BA
Digs
Western Ill. 54·Southern Ind. 73

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern Ind. above 50 · Western Ill. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+1.2% W ILLrally 165 · set 4

Biggest swing: 1.2% to Western Ill. — set 3, W ILL 25-23 S IND. Kill by Kennedy Adair (set by Grace Ulatowski). S IND win probability 97% → 96%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

W ILL 4.9%95.1% S IND

Western Ill. wins

3-0
0.6%
3-1
1.4%
3-2
3.0%

Southern Ind. wins

3-0
55.7%
3-1
29.6%
3-2
9.8%
W ILL break %
37.9% vs this opp
S IND break %
50.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kennedy AdairKill+1.2%

    Kill by Kennedy Adair (set by Grace Ulatowski)

    Set 3 · W ILL 25-23 S IND · W ILL 3% → 4%

  2. 02
    Kennedy AdairKill+0.8%

    Kill by Kennedy Adair (set by Jaleah Bauss)

    Set 3 · W ILL 24-22 S IND · W ILL 2% → 3%

  3. 03
    Western Ill.Ace+0.8%

    Western Ill. ace on Audrey Small

    Set 3 · W ILL 23-21 S IND · W ILL 2% → 3%

  4. 04

    Kill by Georgia Haynes (set by Ashlee Markert)

    Set 1 · W ILL 2-0 S IND · W ILL 5% → 6%

  5. 05

    Kill by Vita Sensenbrenner (set by Aysa Thomas)

    Set 4 · W ILL 0-2 S IND · S IND 97% → 97%

  6. 06
    Western Ill.Ace+0.7%

    Western Ill. ace on Kerigan Fehr

    Set 1 · W ILL 4-3 S IND · W ILL 5% → 6%

  7. 07
    Kennedy AdairKill+0.7%

    Kill by Kennedy Adair (set by Jaleah Bauss)

    Set 3 · W ILL 22-21 S IND · W ILL 1% → 2%

  8. 08
    Leah ColemanKill+0.7%

    Kill by Leah Coleman (set by Aysa Thomas)

    Set 4 · W ILL 0-1 S IND · S IND 96% → 97%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415144.31810095010.515.5
48842.00015583010.513.5
44112.250011000005
43217.059200500003
4113.00000010031.52.5
4002.0001313700001
4000–6201610002
4011-1.000802700000
4000–000000000
3026-.33300000010.50.5
3000–000100000
1011-1.000000000000
Team totals3117128.1093191154906367
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416240.350033122111.520.5
416736.25011060010.517.5
47113.46200010132.59.5
4103.33341011500001
4000–912400001
4000–110820001
46011.545013101018
4000–1222240002
27014.50000010010.57.5
23414-.071000100003
23031.000000200003
Team totals5914134.3365391173936698

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Western Ill. vs Southern Ind.

Season series · Southern Ind. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 W ILL · S IND 5

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 W ILLS IND 4

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 2 W ILLS IND 5

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 5 W ILLS IND 3

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 3 W ILLS IND 5

Bars above the line = Southern Ind. leads, below = Western Ill. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Western Ill.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%9/19
27%3/11
2
56%9/16
50%9/18
3
41%9/22
25%3/12
4
53%9/17
10%1/10
5
50%6/12
0%0/8
6
55%6/11
33%3/9
All
49%48/97
28%19/68

Southern Ind.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%10/20
47%7/15
2
69%9/13
55%11/20
3
100%9/9
55%11/20
4
89%8/9
47%8/17
5
88%7/8
56%9/16
6
67%6/9
33%3/9
All
72%49/68
51%49/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

165 rallies

#W ILL-S INDSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0S INDW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Jaleah Bauss+0.5
22-0W ILLW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Ashlee Markert+0.8
32-1W ILLS IND×3KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.5
42-2S INDS IND×3KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.6
52-3S INDS IND×3KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.6
63-3S INDW ILLKillMaria Eduarda Pereira Tonellaset Grace Ulatowski+0.5
74-3W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.aced Kerigan Fehr+0.7
84-4W ILLS IND×3KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.5
94-5S INDS IND×3KillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+0.6
104-6S INDS IND×3KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.5
115-6S INDW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Grace Ulatowski+0.5
125-7W ILLS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+0.4
136-7S INDW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+0.5
146-8W ILLS IND×3KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.4
156-9S INDS IND×3Attack errAshlee Markert+0.5
166-10S INDS IND×3KillAubrey Fairset Carley Wright+0.4
177-10S INDW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+0.3
187-11W ILLS INDKillAysa Thomas+0.3
198-11S INDW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Grace Ulatowski+0.3
208-12W ILLS IND×4KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.3
218-13S INDS IND×4KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.3
228-14S INDS IND×4KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.2
238-15S INDS IND×4KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.1
249-15S INDW ILL×3KillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.1
2510-15W ILLW ILL×3AceWestern Ill.aced Ashby Willis+0.2
2611-15W ILLW ILL×3Attack errVita Sensenbrenner+0.3
2711-16W ILLS INDBlockedGeorgia Haynesblk Ashby Willis, Vita Sensenbrenner+0.3
2812-16S INDW ILLAttack errAshby Willis+0.2
2912-17W ILLS IND×4KillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+0.3
3012-18S INDS IND×4AceSouthern Ind.aced Kennedy Adair+0.2
3112-19S INDS IND×4AceSouthern Ind.aced Kennedy Adair+0.1
3212-20S INDS IND×4KillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+0.1
3313-20S INDW ILLAttack errCarley Wright·
3413-21W ILLS IND×3KillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas·
3513-22S INDS IND×3KillMackenzie Nettles·
3613-23S INDS IND×3Attack errEmilia Kouri·
3714-23S INDW ILLServe errSouthern Ind.·
3814-24W ILLS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas·
3914-25S INDS INDAttack errAshlee Markert·
Set 2
10-1W ILLS IND×3Serve errWestern Ill.+0.3
20-2S INDS IND×3AceSouthern Ind.aced Kennedy Adair+0.3
30-3S INDS IND×3BlockedGeorgia Haynesblk Aubrey Fair, Vita Sensenbrenner+0.2
41-3S INDW ILLServe errSouthern Ind.+0.2
51-4W ILLS IND×3Attack errAshlee Markert+0.2
61-5S INDS IND×3AceSouthern Ind.aced Ashlee Markert+0.2
71-6S INDS IND×3AceSouthern Ind.aced Ashlee Markert+0.2
82-6S INDW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.1
92-7W ILLS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+0.1
103-7S INDW ILLKillHillary Estesset Jaleah Bauss+0.1
114-7W ILLW ILLAttack errCarley Wright+0.2
124-8W ILLS INDAttack errMadelyn Norton+0.2
135-8S INDW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+0.2
145-9W ILLS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.2
155-10S INDS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+0.2
166-10S INDW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton+0.1
177-10W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.aced Kerigan Fehr+0.2
187-11W ILLS INDAttack errAudrey Pender+0.2
197-12S INDS INDAttack errAshlee Markert+0.2
208-12S INDW ILLAttack errAshby Willis+0.1
218-13W ILLS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.2
229-13S INDW ILLServe errSouthern Ind.+0.1
2310-13W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.+0.3
2410-14W ILLS INDServe errWestern Ill.+0.2
2511-14S INDW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+0.2
2611-15W ILLS IND×5KillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+0.2
2711-16S INDS IND×5AceSouthern Ind.aced Ashlee Markert+0.2
2811-17S INDS IND×5KillMackenzie Nettles+0.1
2911-18S INDS IND×5KillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+0.1
3011-19S INDS IND×5KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas·
3112-19S INDW ILLKillHillary Estesset Jaleah Bauss·
3212-20W ILLS IND×4Serve errWestern Ill.·
3312-21S INDS IND×4KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas·
3412-22S INDS IND×4AceSouthern Ind.aced Kennedy Adair·
3512-23S INDS IND×4KillMackenzie Nettlesset Aysa Thomas·
3613-23S INDW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Grace Ulatowski·
3713-24W ILLS INDKillMackenzie Nettlesset Aysa Thomas·
3813-25S INDS INDBad setMadelyn Norton·
Set 3
11-0S INDW ILLServe errSouthern Ind.+0.2
22-0W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.aced Audrey Small+0.2
32-1W ILLS INDServe errWestern Ill.+0.2
43-1S INDW ILLKillGeorgia Haynesset Jaleah Bauss+0.2
53-2W ILLS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.2
63-3S INDS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.2
74-3S INDW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.2
84-4W ILLS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.1
94-5S INDS INDAceSouthern Ind.aced Kennedy Adair+0.2
105-5S INDW ILLKillHillary Estesset Madelyn Norton+0.2
115-6W ILLS INDKillAshby Willisset Aspen Jankowski+0.1
126-6S INDW ILLKillHillary Estesset Madelyn Norton+0.2
137-6W ILLW ILLBlockedLeah Colemanblk Audrey Pender, Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella+0.2
147-7W ILLS INDAttack errAudrey Pender+0.2
157-8S INDS INDAceSouthern Ind.aced Grace Ulatowski+0.2
168-8S INDW ILLServe errSouthern Ind.+0.2
179-8W ILLW ILLAceWestern Ill.aced Ashby Willis+0.3
189-9W ILLS INDServe errWestern Ill.+0.2
1910-9S INDW ILL×5KillAshlee Markertset Kennedy Adair+0.2
2011-9W ILLW ILL×5AceWestern Ill.aced Audrey Small+0.3
2112-9W ILLW ILL×5AceWestern Ill.aced Audrey Small+0.4
2213-9W ILLW ILL×5Attack errCarley Wright+0.4
2314-9W ILLW ILL×5KillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.4
2414-10W ILLS IND×3Serve errWestern Ill.+0.2
2514-11S INDS IND×3BlockedMaria Eduarda Pereira Tonellablk Ashby Willis+0.3
2614-12S INDS IND×3KillAshby Willisset Kerigan Fehr+0.3
2715-12S INDW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.3
2815-13W ILLS IND×3KillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.3
2915-14S INDS IND×3KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.3
3015-15S INDS IND×3KillCarley Wright+0.3
3116-15S INDW ILLAttack errCarley Wright+0.3
3216-16W ILLS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.3
3317-16S INDW ILLBad setAspen Jankowski+0.3
3417-17W ILLS INDAttack errKennedy Adair+0.3
3517-18S INDS INDKillJillian Moonanset Aspen Jankowski+0.4
3618-18S INDW ILLAttack errLeah Coleman+0.3
3718-19W ILLS INDKillJillian Moonanset Aspen Jankowski+0.3
3819-19S INDW ILLServe errSouthern Ind.+0.3
3919-20W ILLS INDServe errWestern Ill.+0.3
4020-20S INDW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Georgia Haynes+0.4
4120-21W ILLS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.4
4221-21S INDW ILL×3KillKennedy Adairset Grace Ulatowski+0.4
4322-21W ILLW ILL×3KillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.7
4423-21W ILLW ILL×3AceWestern Ill.aced Audrey Small+0.8
4523-22W ILLS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.5
4624-22S INDW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Jaleah Bauss+0.8
4724-23W ILLS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.5
4825-23S INDW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Grace Ulatowski+1.2
Set 4
10-1W ILLS IND×5KillLeah Colemanset Aysa Thomas+0.7
20-2S INDS IND×5KillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+0.7
30-3S INDS IND×5KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.6
40-4S INDS IND×5KillAshby Willisset Audrey Small+0.5
50-5S INDS IND×5Attack errAshlee Markert+0.4
61-5S INDW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Jaleah Bauss+0.3
71-6W ILLS INDServe errWestern Ill.+0.3
82-6S INDW ILLBlockedCarley Wrightblk Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella, Kennedy Adair+0.3
92-7W ILLS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.3
103-7S INDW ILLServe errSouthern Ind.+0.3
113-8W ILLS INDKillMackenzie Nettlesset Aspen Jankowski+0.3
123-9S INDS INDKillLeah Colemanset Aspen Jankowski+0.3
134-9S INDW ILLKillKennedy Adairset Madelyn Norton+0.3
144-10W ILLS INDKillLeah Colemanset Aspen Jankowski+0.3
155-10S INDW ILLAttack errLeah Coleman+0.3
165-11W ILLS IND×3Serve errHillary Estes+0.3
175-12S INDS IND×3BlockedAshlee Markertblk Carley Wright, Vita Sensenbrenner+0.2
185-13S INDS IND×3KillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+0.2
196-13S INDW ILLAttack errLeah Coleman+0.1
206-14W ILLS INDKillCarley Wrightset Aysa Thomas+0.1
216-15S INDS INDBlockedAshlee Markertblk Vita Sensenbrenner+0.1
227-15S INDW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Georgia Haynes+0.1
237-16W ILLS INDServe errAshlee Markert+0.1
247-17S INDS INDBad setGrace Ulatowski+0.1
258-17S INDW ILLServe errAudrey Small·
268-18W ILLS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas·
278-19S INDS INDBlockedHillary Estesblk Mackenzie Nettles·
289-19S INDW ILLServe errAspen Jankowski·
299-20W ILLS INDServe errMadelyn Norton·
309-21S INDS INDKillJillian Moonanset Aspen Jankowski·
3110-21S INDW ILLServe errAshby Willis·
3210-22W ILLS INDKillMackenzie Nettlesset Aspen Jankowski·
3311-22S INDW ILLServe errMackenzie Nettles·
3412-22W ILLW ILLKillAshlee Markertset Madelyn Norton·
3512-23W ILLS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aspen Jankowski·
3612-24S INDS INDKillCarley Wrightset Madelyn Norton·
3713-24S INDW ILL×3Attack errCarley Wright·
3814-24W ILLW ILL×3Bad setAysa Thomas·
3915-24W ILLW ILL×3BlockedCarley Wrightblk Ashlee Markert, Maria Eduarda Pereira Tonella·
4015-25W ILLS INDAttack errAshlee Markert·

Score shown after each rally, Western Ill. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).