Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026

Southern Ind. def. UT Martin 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Southern Ind. 89.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Southern Ind. beat visiting UT Martin 3-2 (25-18, 23-25, 20-25, 25-16, 18-16) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Southern Ind.'s Ashby Willis led with 18 kills, and Aysa Thomas added 14 digs.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set12345Sets
UT MAR18252516162
S IND25232025183

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Audrey Small served 5 aces, and Southern Ind. needed every one.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Southern Ind.'s RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ gave Southern Ind. 90% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · UT Martin 21–20 Southern Ind.

    4 of the last 4 rallies went to UT Martin, enough to take the set 25–20 and lead 2–1.

    Southern Ind. 72% → 55%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · UT Martin 11–9 Southern Ind.

    5 straight Southern Ind. points turned a 9–11 deficit into a 14–11 lead. The match swung to Southern Ind.

    Southern Ind. 40% → 63%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · UT Martin 13–9 Southern Ind.

    From here Southern Ind. won 9 of 12 rallies to take the set 18–16, and with it the match.

    Southern Ind. 9% → >99%

Southern Ind. above 50UT Martin belowMax swing 23.6%

UT MartinSouthern Ind.

Sideout %
UT Martin 53.2·Southern Ind. 59.0
Break %
UT Martin 41.0·Southern Ind. 46.8
Hitting
UT Martin .133·Southern Ind. .227
Longest run
UT Martin 5·Southern Ind. 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern Ind. above 50 · UT Martin below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+23.6% S INDrally 211 · set 5

Biggest swing: 23.6% to Southern Ind. — set 5, UT MAR 16-17 S IND. Kill by Jillian Moonan (set by Aysa Thomas). S IND win probability 58% → 81%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UT MAR 10.8%89.2% S IND

UT Martin wins

3-0
1.5%
3-1
3.3%
3-2
6.0%

Southern Ind. wins

3-0
43.1%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
14.5%
UT MAR break %
39.0% vs this opp
S IND break %
48.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Jillian MoonanKill+23.6%

    Kill by Jillian Moonan (set by Aysa Thomas)

    Set 5 · UT MAR 16-17 S IND · S IND 58% → 81%

  2. 02
    Rylee KeyKill+22.3%

    Kill by Rylee Key (set by Dylan Sulcer)

    Set 5 · UT MAR 14-13 S IND · UT MAR 42% → 65%

  3. 03
    Ashby WillisKill+22.3%

    Kill by Ashby Willis (set by Aysa Thomas)

    Set 5 · UT MAR 14-14 S IND · S IND 35% → 58%

  4. 04
    Luli ArcucciKill+22.3%

    Kill by Luli Arcucci (set by Dylan Sulcer)

    Set 5 · UT MAR 15-14 S IND · UT MAR 42% → 65%

  5. 05
    Ashby WillisKill+22.3%

    Kill by Ashby Willis (set by Aysa Thomas)

    Set 5 · UT MAR 15-15 S IND · S IND 35% → 58%

  6. 06

    Aubrey Fair stuffed by Luli Arcucci & Carly Mueller

    Set 5 · UT MAR 16-15 S IND · UT MAR 42% → 65%

  7. 07
    Aubrey FairKill+22.3%

    Kill by Aubrey Fair (set by Aysa Thomas)

    Set 5 · UT MAR 16-16 S IND · S IND 35% → 58%

  8. 08
    Ashby WillisKill+20.8%

    Kill by Ashby Willis (set by Aysa Thomas)

    Set 5 · UT MAR 13-13 S IND · S IND 37% → 58%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
516426.46211110052.519.5
515838.184000160031.516.5
56620.00000000052.58.5
55832-.094000421227
56222.182000210006
53310.0004001400425
5000–044510004
5001.0002101330001
5001.000002320000
3000–002000000
1000–10000010.50.5
Team totals5131150.1334461048912011100
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518447.298002131153.521.5
510220.40002100456.518.5
5141541-.0240000002115
56416.125000001439
56010.60049021400217
5000–022900002
57216.313000100007
5000–5541110005
5000–0011040000
Team totals6127150.2275491258661815111

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

UT Martin vs Southern Ind.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 UT MAR · S IND 5

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 UT MARS IND 5

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 4 UT MARS IND 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 5 UT MARS IND 5

Set 4

16-25

Longest run 4 UT MARS IND 5

Set 5

16-18

Longest run 3 UT MARS IND 4

Bars above the line = Southern Ind. leads, below = UT Martin leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UT Martin

SlotSideout %Break %
1
64%9/14
38%5/13
2
45%9/20
50%9/18
3
44%8/18
44%7/16
4
50%7/14
22%2/9
5
64%7/11
36%4/11
6
46%6/13
22%2/9
All
51%46/90
38%29/76

Southern Ind.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
64%9/14
42%5/12
2
41%9/22
44%7/16
3
90%9/10
59%13/22
4
70%7/10
56%10/18
5
70%7/10
42%5/12
6
60%6/10
40%4/10
All
62%47/76
49%44/90

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

211 rallies

#UT MAR-S INDSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0S INDUT MARBlockedAubrey Fairblk Rylee Key, Maddy Gladson+0.9
21-1UT MARS INDKillAysa Thomas+0.8
32-1S INDUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+1.0
43-1UT MARUT MARAceUT Martinaced Kerigan Fehr+1.3
53-2UT MARS IND×3Attack errRiley Rushing+0.9
63-3S INDS IND×3BlockedLuli Arcucciblk Ashby Willis, Vita Sensenbrenner+1.2
73-4S INDS IND×3AceAudrey Smallaced Maddy Gladson+1.1
84-4S INDUT MARKillDylan Sulcer+0.9
94-5UT MARS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+0.8
104-6S INDS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+1.0
115-6S INDUT MARServe errSouthern Ind.+0.8
125-7UT MARS IND×3KillAshby Willisset Audrey Small+0.8
135-8S INDS IND×3Attack errMaddy Gladson+0.9
145-9S INDS IND×3KillVita Sensenbrennerset Audrey Small+0.7
156-9S INDUT MARAttack errAubrey Fair+0.5
166-10UT MARS INDKillJillian Moonanset Aysa Thomas+0.6
176-11S INDS INDBlockedRylee Keyblk Aubrey Fair, Mackenzie Nettles+0.6
187-11S INDUT MARAttack errAubrey Fair+0.4
198-11UT MARUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+0.7
208-12UT MARS INDKillMackenzie Nettlesset Aysa Thomas+0.6
219-12S INDUT MARBlockedAubrey Fairblk Rylee Key, Maddy Gladson+0.6
2210-12UT MARUT MARKillLuli Arcucci+1.0
2310-13UT MARS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+0.8
2410-14S INDS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.8
2511-14S INDUT MAR×3KillDylan Sulcer+0.6
2612-14UT MARUT MAR×3KillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+1.0
2713-14UT MARUT MAR×3KillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+1.4
2813-15UT MARS INDKillAysa Thomas+1.1
2914-15S INDUT MARServe errSouthern Ind.+1.1
3014-16UT MARS IND×5BlockedDylan Sulcerblk Ashby Willis, Vita Sensenbrenner+1.1
3114-17S INDS IND×5BlockedCarly Muellerblk Vita Sensenbrenner+1.3
3214-18S INDS IND×5KillJillian Moonanset Aysa Thomas+0.9
3314-19S INDS IND×5Attack errDylan Sulcer+0.7
3414-20S INDS IND×5KillVita Sensenbrenner+0.4
3515-20S INDUT MARServe errSouthern Ind.+0.2
3615-21UT MARS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+0.3
3715-22S INDS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+0.2
3816-22S INDUT MARBlockedAubrey Fairblk Reagan Hamm, Carly Mueller+0.1
3916-23UT MARS INDServe errUT Martin+0.1
4017-23S INDUT MARKillRylee Keyset Reagan Hamm·
4118-23UT MARUT MARBlockedJillian Moonanblk Maddy Gladson+0.1
4218-24UT MARS INDKillMackenzie Nettlesset Aysa Thomas+0.1
4318-25S INDS INDAttack errLuli Arcucci·
Set 2
11-0UT MARUT MARAttack errMackenzie Nettles+0.8
21-1UT MARS INDKillAysa Thomas+0.6
32-1S INDUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+0.7
43-1UT MARUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+0.9
53-2UT MARS INDServe errUT Martin+0.6
64-2S INDUT MARAttack errVita Sensenbrenner+0.8
74-3UT MARS INDBlockedCarly Muellerblk Vita Sensenbrenner+0.7
84-4S INDS INDBlockedCarly Muellerblk Vita Sensenbrenner+0.8
95-4S INDUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+0.7
105-5UT MARS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+0.6
115-6S INDS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+0.8
126-6S INDUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+0.7
136-7UT MARS INDKillJillian Moonanset Audrey Small+0.6
147-7S INDUT MARKillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+0.7
158-7UT MARUT MARBlockedAubrey Fairblk Dylan Sulcer, Rylee Key+1.0
168-8UT MARS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+0.7
179-8S INDUT MARServe errSouthern Ind.+0.8
189-9UT MARS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+0.8
1910-9S INDUT MARKillMaddy Gladsonset Dylan Sulcer+0.9
2011-9UT MARUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+1.2
2111-10UT MARS IND×4Serve errUT Martin+0.8
2211-11S INDS IND×4BlockedLuli Arcucciblk Ashby Willis, Vita Sensenbrenner+1.1
2311-12S INDS IND×4Attack errRiley Rushing+1.0
2411-13S INDS IND×4KillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+0.9
2512-13S INDUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+0.7
2613-13UT MARUT MARBlockedVita Sensenbrennerblk Carly Mueller, Luli Arcucci+1.1
2713-14UT MARS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.8
2814-14S INDUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+0.9
2914-15UT MARS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.9
3015-15S INDUT MARKillRiley Rushingset Dylan Sulcer+1.0
3115-16UT MARS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+0.9
3216-16S INDUT MARKillDylan Sulcer+1.0
3317-16UT MARUT MARAttack errJillian Moonan+1.6
3417-17UT MARS INDServe errUT Martin+1.1
3518-17S INDUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+1.4
3618-18UT MARS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+1.2
3719-18S INDUT MAR×4Serve errSouthern Ind.+1.5
3820-18UT MARUT MAR×4AceUT Martinaced Audrey Small+2.1
3921-18UT MARUT MAR×4AceUT Martinaced Ashby Willis+2.1
4022-18UT MARUT MAR×4KillRiley Rushingset Abby Freund+1.8
4122-19UT MARS IND×3Serve errUT Martin+0.8
4222-20S INDS IND×3KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+1.5
4322-21S INDS IND×3AceAudrey Smallaced Abby Freund+2.0
4423-21S INDUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+2.4
4523-22UT MARS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+1.6
4623-23S INDS INDBlockedLuli Arcucciblk Ashby Willis+3.0
4724-23S INDUT MARKillRiley Rushingset Dylan Sulcer+3.2
4825-23UT MARUT MARAttack errAshby Willis+5.1
Set 3
10-1S INDS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+1.8
20-2S INDS INDBlockedCarly Muellerblk Mackenzie Nettles, Aubrey Fair+1.6
31-2S INDUT MAR×5KillMaddy Gladsonset Dylan Sulcer+1.3
42-2UT MARUT MAR×5Attack errAubrey Fair+2.0
53-2UT MARUT MAR×5KillRylee Keyset Abby Freund+2.3
64-2UT MARUT MAR×5Attack errMackenzie Nettles+2.6
75-2UT MARUT MAR×5Attack errAubrey Fair+2.8
85-3UT MARS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+1.9
96-3S INDUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+2.3
107-3UT MARUT MARBlockedAshby Willisblk Luli Arcucci, Rylee Key+3.0
117-4UT MARS INDKillMackenzie Nettlesset Aysa Thomas+1.9
128-4S INDUT MARServe errSouthern Ind.+2.5
138-5UT MARS INDKillAysa Thomas+2.0
149-5S INDUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+2.5
1510-5UT MARUT MARKillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+3.2
1610-6UT MARS INDKillAysa Thomasset Audrey Small+1.9
1711-6S INDUT MARServe errSouthern Ind.+2.6
1811-7UT MARS INDKillJillian Moonanset Aysa Thomas+2.0
1912-7S INDUT MARKillRiley Rushingset Abby Freund+2.7
2013-7UT MARUT MARKillMaddy Gladsonset Dylan Sulcer+3.1
2113-8UT MARS INDServe errUT Martin+1.8
2214-8S INDUT MARServe errSouthern Ind.+2.5
2314-9UT MARS INDAttack errMaddy Gladson+1.7
2414-10S INDS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+2.7
2515-10S INDUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+2.8
2615-11UT MARS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+2.0
2715-12S INDS INDAceAudrey Smallaced Maddy Gladson+3.0
2816-12S INDUT MAR×3Serve errAudrey Small+3.2
2917-12UT MARUT MAR×3AceUT Martinaced Kerigan Fehr+3.7
3018-12UT MARUT MAR×3Attack errAshby Willis+3.1
3118-13UT MARS IND×5KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+1.5
3218-14S INDS IND×5Attack errRylee Key+2.5
3318-15S INDS IND×5BlockedLuli Arcucciblk Ashby Willis, Vita Sensenbrenner+3.1
3418-16S IND
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.7
3518-17S INDS IND×5KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+4.1
3619-17S INDUT MARKillRiley Rushingset Dylan Sulcer+4.1
3719-18UT MARS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+3.3
3820-18S INDUT MARAttack errAubrey Fair+4.4
3920-19UT MARS INDAttack errDylan Sulcer+3.5
4021-19S INDUT MARServe errSouthern Ind.+4.9
4121-20UT MARS INDKillJillian Moonanset Aysa Thomas+3.8
4222-20S INDUT MAR×4Attack errAubrey Fair+5.5
4323-20UT MARUT MAR×4BlockedAubrey Fairblk Rylee Key, Dylan Sulcer+6.4
4424-20UT MARUT MAR×4KillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+4.3
4525-20UT MARUT MAR×4KillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+1.6
Set 4
10-1UT MARS INDKillAubrey Fairset Audrey Small+2.5
20-2S INDS INDKillMackenzie Nettlesset Aysa Thomas+2.9
31-2S INDUT MAR×3KillMaddy Gladsonset Rylee Key+2.4
42-2UT MARUT MAR×3Attack errMackenzie Nettles+3.6
53-2UT MARUT MAR×3AcePenny Kirkhamaced Kerigan Fehr+4.2
63-3UT MARS INDServe errPenny Kirkham+3.0
73-4S INDS INDAttack errRylee Key+3.6
84-4S INDUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+3.1
94-5UT MARS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+2.8
105-5S INDUT MARKillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+3.2
116-5UT MARUT MARKillRiley Rushingset Dylan Sulcer+4.6
126-6UT MARS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+3.3
136-7S INDS INDKillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+4.0
147-7S INDUT MAR×4Serve errAshby Willis+3.4
158-7UT MARUT MAR×4BlockedAubrey Fairblk Dylan Sulcer, Carly Mueller+5.0
169-7UT MARUT MAR×4Attack errAubrey Fair+5.6
1710-7UT MARUT MAR×4BlockedAubrey Fairblk Carly Mueller, Dylan Sulcer+6.0
1810-8UT MARS INDServe errLauren Mariscal+4.0
1910-9S INDS INDAceVita Sensenbrenneraced Abby Freund+5.3
2011-9S INDUT MARKillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+4.8
2111-10UT MARS IND×5KillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+4.1
2211-11S INDS IND×5AceAspen Jankowskiaced Lauren Mariscal+5.3
2311-12S INDS IND×5AceAspen Jankowskiaced Lauren Mariscal+5.0
2411-13S INDS IND×5BlockedRylee Keyblk Mackenzie Nettles+4.4
2511-14S INDS IND×5KillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+3.7
2612-14S INDUT MAR×3KillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+2.8
2713-14UT MARUT MAR×3Attack errAysa Thomas+4.6
2814-14UT MARUT MAR×3Bad setAubrey Fair+5.8
2914-15UT MARS IND×4Serve errDylan Sulcer+4.4
3014-16S INDS IND×4KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+5.1
3114-17S INDS IND×4Attack errLuli Arcucci+4.2
3214-18S INDS IND×4KillAysa Thomasset Audrey Small+3.2
3315-18S INDUT MARAttack errMackenzie Nettles+2.1
3415-19UT MARS IND×3KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+2.5
3515-20S INDS IND×3AceAudrey Smallaced Riley Rushing+2.2
3615-21S INDS IND×3AceAudrey Smallaced Abby Freund+1.2
3716-21S INDUT MARServe errAudrey Small+0.6
3816-22UT MARS IND×4KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+0.8
3916-23S INDS IND×4BlockedCarly Muellerblk Vita Sensenbrenner+0.4
4016-24S INDS IND×4Attack errCarly Mueller+0.1
4116-25S INDS IND×4BlockedLuli Arcucciblk Ashby Willis, Vita Sensenbrenner+0.8
Set 5
11-0S INDUT MARKillCarly Muellerset Dylan Sulcer+6.3
21-1UT MARS IND×3KillMackenzie Nettlesset Aysa Thomas+5.7
31-2S INDS IND×3BlockedMaddy Gladsonblk Aysa Thomas, Mackenzie Nettles+7.0
41-3S INDS IND×3Attack errMaddy Gladson+6.2
52-3S INDUT MAR×3KillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+4.9
63-3UT MARUT MAR×3KillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+7.7
74-3UT MARUT MAR×3Attack errAysa Thomas+9.2
84-4UT MARS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+6.5
95-4S INDUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+7.7
105-5UT MARS INDKillVita Sensenbrennerset Aysa Thomas+6.9
116-5S INDUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+8.2
127-5UT MARUT MARAceRylee Keyaced Kerigan Fehr+11.6
137-6UT MARS INDServe errRylee Key+7.6
148-6S INDUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+9.8
158-7UT MARS INDKillJillian Moonanset Aysa Thomas+8.1
169-7S INDUT MARBad setVita Sensenbrenner+10.6
179-8UT MARS INDAttack errMaddy Gladson+8.6
1810-8S INDUT MARKillMaddy Gladsonset Dylan Sulcer+11.5
1911-8UT MARUT MARKillRylee Key+14.4
2011-9UT MARS INDKillMackenzie Nettlesset Aysa Thomas+7.7
2112-9S INDUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+12.2
2213-9UT MARUT MARAttack errAshby Willis+12.0
2313-10UT MARS IND×4BlockedMaddy Gladsonblk Aysa Thomas, Mackenzie Nettles+4.2
2413-11S INDS IND×4Attack errMaddy Gladson+9.3
2513-12S INDS IND×4Attack errMaddy Gladson+14.6
2613-13S INDS IND×4KillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+20.8
2714-13S INDUT MARKillRylee Keyset Dylan Sulcer+22.3
2814-14UT MARS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+22.3
2915-14S INDUT MARKillLuli Arcucciset Dylan Sulcer+22.3
3015-15UT MARS INDKillAshby Willisset Aysa Thomas+22.3
3116-15S INDUT MARBlockedAubrey Fairblk Luli Arcucci, Carly Mueller+22.3
3216-16UT MARS IND×3KillAubrey Fairset Aysa Thomas+22.3
3316-17S INDS IND×3KillJillian Moonanset Aysa Thomas+23.6
3416-18S INDS IND×3AceVita Sensenbrenneraced Penny Kirkham+18.9

Score shown after each rally, UT Martin first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).