FinalThu, Sep 10, 2026

AwayCUSA

0:3

HomeUAC-

Tarleton St. def. Sam Houston 3–0

(25-22, 25-23, 27-25)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SAMHOU	22	23	25	0
TARLET	25	25	27	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TARLET above 50 · SAMHOU below

Biggest swing: 9.9% to Tarleton St. — set 3, SAMHOU 25-27 TARLET. Kill by Madison Natori Rice-Locket (set by Kingsley Minus). TARLET win probability 90% → 100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SAMHOU 66.4%33.6% TARLET

Sam Houston wins

3-0

20.9%

3-1

25.5%

3-2

20.0%

Tarleton St. wins

3-0

6.7%

3-1

12.0%

3-2

14.9%

SAMHOU break %: 44.7% vs this opp
TARLET break %: 41.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Madison Natori Rice-LocketKill+9.9%
Kill by Madison Natori Rice-Locket (set by Kingsley Minus)
Set 3 · SAMHOU 25-27 TARLET · TARLET 90% → 100%
02
LaNeah LaraKill+9.6%
Kill by LaNeah Lara (set by Leddy Rae Guinn)
Set 2 · SAMHOU 23-25 TARLET · TARLET 70% → 80%
03
Madison Natori Rice-LocketAttack error+9.3%
Attack error by Madison Natori Rice-Locket
Set 3 · SAMHOU 24-24 TARLET · SAMHOU 8% → 17%
04
LaNeah LaraKill+9.3%
Kill by LaNeah Lara (set by Lauren Pyle)
Set 2 · SAMHOU 22-24 TARLET · TARLET 65% → 74%
05
LaNeah LaraKill+9.2%
Kill by LaNeah Lara
Set 2 · SAMHOU 22-23 TARLET · TARLET 56% → 65%
06
Madison Natori Rice-LocketKill+7.0%
Kill by Madison Natori Rice-Locket (set by Kingsley Minus)
Set 3 · SAMHOU 24-25 TARLET · TARLET 83% → 90%
07
Chelsea ButlerKill+7.0%
Kill by Chelsea Butler (set by Lauren Pyle)
Set 3 · SAMHOU 25-25 TARLET · SAMHOU 10% → 17%
08
Alyssa DinhKill+7.0%
Kill by Alyssa Dinh (set by Kingsley Minus)
Set 3 · SAMHOU 25-26 TARLET · TARLET 83% → 90%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Sam Houstonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
4Chloe MonsonOH	3	16	4	43	.279	0	2	1	8	1	3	1.5	19.5
20Bella WoodOH	3	6	2	19	.211	0	1	3	3	1	1	0.5	7.5
8Chelsea ButlerMB	3	3	2	15	.067	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	4.5
17Annika BrooksOH	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.5	4.5
12Rachelle ReedOH	3	1	3	7	-.286	0	0	2	2	0	5	2.5	3.5
2Brenlin GarlitzS	3	1	1	3	.000	15	1	2	6	0	0	0	2
6Faith RoulstonMB	3	3	2	11	.091	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	4
15Lauren PyleS	3	0	0	1	.000	16	0	0	10	0	1	0.5	0.5
13Avery PruittDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
3Shaelin WhiteDS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	11	0	0	0	0
9Kameron RectorOH	2	3	0	8	.375	0	0	0	4	0	2	1	4
5Audrey TerryDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	16	119	.176	36	4	9	50	3	18	9	70

Tarleton St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3LaNeah LaraOH	3	13	0	32	.406	0	0	0	7	1	1	0.5	13.5
23Alyssa DinhMB	3	11	0	15	.733	0	0	0	2	0	4	2	13
21Madison Natori Rice-LocketOH	3	10	4	23	.261	0	0	2	9	2	3	1.5	11.5
9Madison FrankMB	3	6	1	13	.385	0	0	2	1	0	2	1	7
4Breannah PetersonOPP	3	3	4	8	-.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
5Alexis MasseyS	3	0	0	0	–	23	2	3	7	0	0	0	2
11Onita DavisMB	3	4	6	19	-.105	1	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
13Kingsley MinusS	3	0	0	0	–	17	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
8Leddy Rae GuinnDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	20	0	0	0	0
7Taylynn BiggsMB	2	2	2	10	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
14Jacqui McClainOH	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	3	3	0	0	0	0
19Alexa EarleL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	1
Team totals		49	17	120	.267	46	3	11	60	4	12	6	77

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 SAMHOU · TARLET 4

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 3 SAMHOUTARLET 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 SAMHOUTARLET 3

Set 3

25-27

Longest run 2 SAMHOUTARLET 4

Bars above the line = Tarleton St. leads, below = Sam Houston leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Sam Houston

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	45%9/20	33%4/12
2	53%8/15	18%2/11
3	78%7/9	38%5/13
4	58%7/12	46%6/13
5	70%7/10	36%4/11
6	70%7/10	36%4/11
All	59%45/76	35%25/71

Tarleton St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	53%9/17
2	67%8/12	47%7/15
3	57%8/14	38%5/13
4	58%7/12	30%3/10
5	64%7/11	36%4/11
6	70%7/10	30%3/10
All	65%46/71	41%31/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

147 rallies

Rally log

#	SAMHOU-TARLET	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TARLET	TARLET×4	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+2.3
2	0-2	TARLET	TARLET×4	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+2.4
3	0-3	TARLET	TARLET×4	Ace	TARLET server	aced Annika Brooks	+2.4
4	0-4	TARLET	TARLET×4	Attack err	Bella Wood		+2.4
5	1-4	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.6
6	1-5	SAMHOU	TARLET	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+1.8
7	2-5	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.6
8	3-5	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Breannah Peterson		+2.3
9	3-6	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+2.0
10	4-6	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.8
11	5-6	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Breannah Peterson	blk Faith Roulston, Lauren Pyle	+2.5
12	5-7	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+2.1
13	5-8	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+2.7
14	6-8	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Rachelle Reed	set Lauren Pyle	+1.8
15	7-8	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+2.6
16	7-9	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+2.2
17	8-9	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Lauren Pyle	+2.0
18	8-10	SAMHOU	TARLET	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+2.3
19	8-11	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Faith Roulston		+2.9
20	9-11	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+2.0
21	9-12	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Kingsley Minus	+2.3
22	9-13	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+2.8
23	10-13	TARLET	SAMHOU	Serve err	TARLET server		+1.8
24	10-14	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+2.2
25	10-15	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh		+2.5
26	11-15	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Brenlin Garlitz		+1.5
27	11-16	SAMHOU	TARLET	Attack err	Rachelle Reed		+1.9
28	12-16	TARLET	SAMHOU×3	Serve err	TARLET server		+1.4
29	13-16	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Breannah Peterson		+2.4
30	14-16	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+2.9
31	14-17	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+2.7
32	14-18	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+3.2
33	15-18	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+1.8
34	16-18	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Madison Frank	blk Rachelle Reed, Faith Roulston	+3.1
35	16-19	SAMHOU	TARLET	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+3.0
36	17-19	TARLET	SAMHOU×3	Serve err	TARLET server		+2.3
37	18-19	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Faith Roulston	set Lauren Pyle	+3.9
38	19-19	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Kameron Rector	set Lauren Pyle	+4.5
39	19-20	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+3.9
40	19-21	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Chelsea Butler	blk Alyssa Dinh, Onita Davis	+5.2
41	20-21	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Faith Roulston	set Lauren Pyle	+3.2
42	21-21	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Onita Davis		+5.4
43	21-22	SAMHOU	TARLET×3	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Kingsley Minus	+4.9
44	21-23	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+6.5
45	21-24	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Chelsea Butler		+4.9
46	22-24	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Kameron Rector	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.5
47	22-25	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+3.6
Set 2
1	0-1	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+2.1
2	0-2	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Bella Wood		+2.9
3	1-2	TARLET	SAMHOU	Serve err	TARLET server		+2.1
4	2-2	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced LaNeah Lara	+2.8
5	2-3	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+2.2
6	3-3	TARLET	SAMHOU	Serve err	TARLET server		+2.2
7	3-4	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+2.3
8	4-4	TARLET	SAMHOU×3	Bad set	Leddy Rae Guinn		+2.2
9	5-4	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+2.9
10	6-4	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Breannah Peterson	blk Rachelle Reed, Chloe Monson	+2.8
11	6-5	SAMHOU	TARLET	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+2.1
12	6-6	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Kingsley Minus	+3.0
13	7-6	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+2.3
14	7-7	SAMHOU	TARLET	Attack err	Faith Roulston		+2.4
15	7-8	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Rachelle Reed	blk Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+3.4
16	8-8	TARLET	SAMHOU	Serve err	TARLET server		+2.5
17	9-8	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Onita Davis	blk Chelsea Butler, Kameron Rector	+3.3
18	9-9	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Onita Davis	+2.5
19	9-10	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Jacqui McClain	+3.6
20	10-10	TARLET	SAMHOU	Serve err	TARLET server		+2.6
21	10-11	SAMHOU	TARLET	Attack err	Annika Brooks	blk Madison Natori Rice-Locket, Alyssa Dinh	+2.8
22	10-12	TARLET	TARLET	Ace	TARLET server	aced Chloe Monson	+3.8
23	11-12	TARLET	SAMHOU	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+2.7
24	11-13	SAMHOU	TARLET	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+3.0
25	11-14	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Annika Brooks	blk LaNeah Lara	+3.9
26	12-14	TARLET	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+2.5
27	13-14	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Shaelin White	+3.8
28	14-14	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Shaelin White	+4.1
29	14-15	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+3.3
30	15-15	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+3.2
31	15-16	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+3.5
32	15-17	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Kingsley Minus	+4.8
33	16-17	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Faith Roulston	set Brenlin Garlitz	+3.2
34	17-17	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+4.8
35	17-18	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Kingsley Minus	+4.0
36	18-18	TARLET	SAMHOU	Serve err	TARLET server		+3.8
37	18-19	SAMHOU	TARLET	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+4.3
38	19-19	TARLET	SAMHOU×3	Kill	Kameron Rector	set Brenlin Garlitz	+4.1
39	20-19	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Onita Davis	blk Chelsea Butler, Kameron Rector	+5.8
40	21-19	SAMHOU	SAMHOU×3	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	blk Annika Brooks, Chelsea Butler	+5.4
41	21-20	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Jacqui McClain	+3.5
42	21-21	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Chloe Monson		+6.3
43	22-21	TARLET	SAMHOU	Serve err	TARLET server		+5.5
44	22-22	SAMHOU	TARLET×3	Kill	Taylynn Biggs	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+5.5
45	22-23	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	LaNeah Lara		+9.2
46	22-24	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Lauren Pyle	+9.3
47	23-24	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Lauren Pyle	+4.0
48	23-25	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+9.6
Set 3
1	1-0	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.6
2	1-1	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+1.6
3	2-1	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.6
4	2-2	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+1.7
5	3-2	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.6
6	3-3	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+1.7
7	4-3	TARLET	SAMHOU	Attack err	Onita Davis	blk Chloe Monson, Rachelle Reed	+1.7
8	4-4	SAMHOU	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Frank	set Kingsley Minus	+1.7
9	4-5	TARLET	TARLET×3	Ace	TARLET server	aced Bella Wood	+2.4
10	4-6	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Rachelle Reed	blk Madison Frank, Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+2.5
11	5-6	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Lauren Pyle	+1.8
12	5-7	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Kingsley Minus	+2.0
13	6-7	TARLET	SAMHOU	Serve err	TARLET server		+1.8
14	7-7	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Brenlin Garlitz	+2.5
15	7-8	SAMHOU	TARLET	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+2.0
16	8-8	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+1.9
17	9-8	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Shaelin White	+2.6
18	9-9	SAMHOU	TARLET	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+2.0
19	10-9	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Brenlin Garlitz	+2.0
20	11-9	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Shaelin White	+2.5
21	11-10	SAMHOU	TARLET×3	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+1.9
22	11-11	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+2.8
23	11-12	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+3.0
24	12-12	TARLET	SAMHOU	Attack err	Taylynn Biggs		+2.2
25	12-13	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+2.4
26	13-13	TARLET	SAMHOU	Attack err	Onita Davis		+2.3
27	14-13	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Ace	SAMHOU server	aced Team	+3.1
28	14-14	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Kingsley Minus	+2.4
29	15-14	TARLET	SAMHOU	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+2.4
30	15-15	SAMHOU	TARLET	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+2.5
31	16-15	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Lauren Pyle	+2.6
32	16-16	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Kingsley Minus	+2.6
33	17-16	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Bella Wood	set Brenlin Garlitz	+2.7
34	17-17	SAMHOU	TARLET×4	Serve err	SAMHOU server		+2.8
35	17-18	TARLET	TARLET×4	Attack err	Chloe Monson	blk Taylynn Biggs, Alyssa Dinh	+4.1
36	17-19	TARLET	TARLET×4	Attack err	Brenlin Garlitz		+4.2
37	17-20	TARLET	TARLET×4	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+3.9
38	18-20	TARLET	SAMHOU	Serve err	TARLET server		+2.2
39	19-20	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Taylynn Biggs	blk Rachelle Reed, Chloe Monson	+3.9
40	19-21	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Taylynn Biggs	set Alexis Massey	+3.8
41	20-21	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Annika Brooks	set Brenlin Garlitz	+3.1
42	21-21	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Shaelin White	+5.2
43	21-22	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+4.6
44	21-23	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Kingsley Minus	+6.2
45	22-23	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chloe Monson	set Lauren Pyle	+3.3
46	22-24	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Kingsley Minus	+5.6
47	23-24	TARLET	SAMHOU	Attack err	Onita Davis	blk Rachelle Reed, Bella Wood	+3.1
48	24-24	SAMHOU	SAMHOU	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+9.3
49	24-25	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Kingsley Minus	+7.0
50	25-25	TARLET	SAMHOU	Kill	Chelsea Butler	set Lauren Pyle	+7.0
51	25-26	SAMHOU	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Kingsley Minus	+7.0
52	25-27	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Kingsley Minus	+9.9

Score shown after each rally, Sam Houston first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.