Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

New Mexico St. def. Sam Houston 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Sam Houston 59.6% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

New Mexico St. won at Sam Houston 3-2 (25-20, 19-25, 25-17, 13-25, 15-8) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. New Mexico St.'s Maggie Lightheart led with 17 kills, and Makayla Martinez added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set12345Sets
NM ST25192513153
SAMHOU2025172582

Match story · written from the play-by-play

4 aces from Tess Fuqua, and New Mexico St. needed each of them.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are New Mexico St.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ had Sam Houston at 60% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · New Mexico St. 7–6 Sam Houston

    Sam Houston scored 6 straight to turn a 6–7 deficit into a 12–7 lead. The match swung to Sam Houston.

    New Mexico St. 64% → 48%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · New Mexico St. 14–13 Sam Houston

    5 straight New Mexico St. points stretched a 14–13 lead to 19–13. The match swung to New Mexico St.

    New Mexico St. 48% → 67%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · New Mexico St. 3–2 Sam Houston

    Up 3–2, New Mexico St. scored 4 straight to make it 7–2.

    New Mexico St. 57% → 88%

Sam Houston above 50New Mexico St. belowMax swing 9.4%

New Mexico St.Sam Houston

Sideout %
New Mexico St. 55.2·Sam Houston 54.2
Break %
New Mexico St. 45.8·Sam Houston 44.8
Hitting
New Mexico St. .204·Sam Houston .171
Longest run
New Mexico St. 6·Sam Houston 6

Tess Fuqua
13 kills on .250, 18 points; 2 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Sam Houston above 50 · New Mexico St. below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+9.4% NM STrally 192 · set 5

Biggest swing: 9.4% to New Mexico St. — set 5, NM ST 3-1 SAMHOU. New Mexico St. ace. SAMHOU win probability 46% → 37%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NM ST 43.5%56.5% SAMHOU

New Mexico St. wins

3-0
10.0%
3-1
16.0%
3-2
17.5%

Sam Houston wins

3-0
15.4%
3-1
21.5%
3-2
19.6%
NM ST break %
42.2% vs this opp
SAMHOU break %
43.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    New Mexico St.Ace+9.4%

    New Mexico St. ace

    Set 5 · NM ST 3-1 SAMHOU · NM ST 54% → 63%

  2. 02
    Tess FuquaKill+9.3%

    Kill by Tess Fuqua (set by Katrina Catalan)

    Set 5 · NM ST 5-2 SAMHOU · NM ST 64% → 73%

  3. 03
    Ashley HermanKill+8.2%

    Kill by Ashley Herman (set by Katrina Catalan)

    Set 5 · NM ST 6-2 SAMHOU · NM ST 73% → 82%

  4. 04

    Kill by Maggie Lightheart (set by Paige Nelson)

    Set 5 · NM ST 4-2 SAMHOU · NM ST 57% → 64%

  5. 05
    New Mexico St.Ace+6.7%

    New Mexico St. ace

    Set 5 · NM ST 7-2 SAMHOU · NM ST 82% → 88%

  6. 06
    Sam HoustonService error+6.6%

    Sam Houston service error

    Set 5 · NM ST 2-1 SAMHOU · NM ST 47% → 54%

  7. 07

    Kill by Maggie Lightheart (set by Paige Nelson)

    Set 5 · NM ST 1-0 SAMHOU · NM ST 47% → 53%

  8. 08
    New Mexico St.Service error+6.2%

    New Mexico St. service error

    Set 5 · NM ST 1-1 SAMHOU · SAMHOU 47% → 53%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517439.3330269002120
513436.2501418102118
58217.35300250031.59.5
54521-.048000000426
5319.222000000636
5012-.5002603500000
55315.13300000010.55.5
5002.0002421930004
5003.0002231900003
51011.000000000001
51011.000000000001
5016-.167001300000
5000–000010000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
Team totals5221152.204511316588018997
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5131048.06312010200015
59221.33302385010.511.5
511120.5000001000011
5317.286000000425
53310.000000300214
5001.0001823700002
56320.15000030010.56.5
5124-.25015221100003
5215.200000110002
5012-.500000000000
5001.000000000000
5001.0005001910000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
Team totals4824140.1713988631308495

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

New Mexico St. vs Sam Houston

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 NM ST · SAMHOU 6

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 6 NM STSAMHOU 5

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 4 NM STSAMHOU 6

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 5 NM STSAMHOU 3

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 4 NM STSAMHOU 5

Set 5

15-8

Longest run 4 NM STSAMHOU 2

Bars above the line = Sam Houston leads, below = New Mexico St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

New Mexico St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%10/14
33%4/12
2
80%8/10
31%4/13
3
47%7/15
36%4/11
4
46%6/13
50%7/14
5
50%6/12
54%7/13
6
55%6/11
33%3/9
All
57%43/75
40%29/72

Sam Houston

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%9/15
50%8/16
2
73%8/11
10%1/10
3
54%7/13
36%4/11
4
44%7/16
46%6/13
5
60%6/10
57%8/14
6
86%6/7
45%5/11
All
60%43/72
43%32/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

192 rallies

#NM ST-SAMHOUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SAMHOUSAMHOUAttack errPaige Nelson+2.4
20-2SAMHOUSAMHOUAceSam Houstonaced Makayla Martinez+2.4
31-2SAMHOUNM ST×6KillMaggie Lightheartset Paige Nelson+1.6
42-2NM STNM ST×6BlockedBella Woodblk Jaelynn Kohli, Mia Fox+2.5
53-2NM STNM ST×6AceNew Mexico St.+2.6
64-2NM STNM ST×6Attack errBella Wood+2.7
75-2NM STNM ST×6BlockedChelsea Butlerblk Jaelynn Kohli, Mia Fox+2.6
86-2NM STNM ST×6KillMia Fox+2.5
96-3NM STSAMHOUKillChelsea Butlerset Brenlin Garlitz+1.6
107-3SAMHOUNM ST×3KillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+1.8
118-3NM STNM ST×3AceNew Mexico St.aced Bella Wood+2.3
129-3NM STNM ST×3Attack errAnnika Brooks+2.0
139-4NM STSAMHOUKillChloe Monsonset Brenlin Garlitz+1.1
1410-4SAMHOUNM STKillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+1.4
1510-5NM STSAMHOU×5Attack errTess Fuquaset Makayla Martinez+1.1
1610-6SAMHOUSAMHOU×5KillChloe Monsonset Makayla Martinez+2.0
1710-7SAMHOUSAMHOU×5KillChloe Monson+2.3
1810-8SAMHOUSAMHOU×5KillChloe Monson+2.6
1910-9SAMHOU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.9
2011-9SAMHOUNM ST×4KillKate Sinclairset Katrina Catalan+2.3
2112-9NM STNM ST×4KillAshley Hermanset Katrina Catalan+3.1
2213-9NM STNM ST×4Attack errChloe Monson+2.8
2314-9NM STNM ST×4AceNew Mexico St.aced Bella Wood+2.4
2414-10NM STSAMHOU×3Serve errNew Mexico St.+1.4
2514-11SAMHOUSAMHOU×3KillBella Woodset Lauren Pyle+2.4
2614-12SAMHOUSAMHOU×3AceSam Houston+2.9
2715-12SAMHOUNM STAttack errFaith Roulstonset Bella Wood+2.4
2816-12NM STNM STAttack errChloe Monson+3.0
2916-13NM STSAMHOUServe errNew Mexico St.+1.7
3017-13SAMHOUNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+2.2
3117-14NM STSAMHOUServe errNew Mexico St.+1.7
3218-14SAMHOUNM ST×3KillMia Foxset Paige Nelson+2.3
3319-14NM STNM ST×3AceNew Mexico St.aced Chloe Monson+2.4
3420-14NM STNM ST×3KillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+1.6
3520-15NM STSAMHOU×4KillBella Woodset Brenlin Garlitz+0.7
3620-16SAMHOUSAMHOU×4AceSam Houston+1.5
3720-17SAMHOUSAMHOU×4KillChelsea Butler+2.2
3820-18SAMHOUSAMHOU×4AceSam Houstonaced Makayla Martinez+3.1
3921-18SAMHOUNM STKillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+3.1
4021-19NM STSAMHOUKillChloe Monsonset Brenlin Garlitz+2.2
4122-19SAMHOUNM ST×3KillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+3.3
4223-19NM STNM ST×3Attack errChloe Monson+3.1
4324-19NM STNM ST×3Attack errAnnika Brooks+1.4
4424-20NM STSAMHOUKillChloe Monsonset Brenlin Garlitz+0.2
4525-20SAMHOUNM STKillKate Sinclairset Katrina Catalan+0.6
Set 2
10-1NM STSAMHOUKillBella Woodset Brenlin Garlitz+1.9
21-1SAMHOUNM STKillMaggie Lightheart+1.9
31-2NM STSAMHOUAttack errJaelynn Kohliset Paige Nelson+2.0
42-2SAMHOUNM ST×3KillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+2.0
53-2NM STNM ST×3BlockedA'miyrie Andersonblk Tess Fuqua, Mia Fox+2.9
64-2NM STNM ST×3AceNew Mexico St.+3.0
74-3NM STSAMHOUKillChloe Monsonset Brenlin Garlitz+2.0
85-3SAMHOUNM STKillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+2.2
95-4NM STSAMHOUKillChloe Monsonset Lauren Pyle+2.0
105-5SAMHOUSAMHOUAceSam Houstonaced Tess Fuqua+3.0
116-5SAMHOUNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+2.2
126-6NM STSAMHOUKillFaith Roulstonset Makayla Martinez+2.2
137-6SAMHOUNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+2.3
147-7NM STSAMHOU×6Serve errNew Mexico St.+2.2
157-8SAMHOUSAMHOU×6KillBella Woodset Shaelin White+3.2
167-9SAMHOUSAMHOU×6KillMaggie Lightheart+3.1
177-10SAMHOUSAMHOU×6Attack errJaelynn Kohli+2.9
187-11SAMHOUSAMHOU×6Attack errMaggie Lightheart+2.6
197-12SAMHOUSAMHOU×6KillChelsea Butlerset Brenlin Garlitz+2.2
208-12SAMHOUNM ST×4Serve errSam Houston+1.3
219-12NM STNM ST×4KillMaggie Lightheartset Makayla Martinez+2.2
2210-12NM STNM ST×4KillMaggie Lightheartset Paige Nelson+2.8
2311-12NM STNM ST×4Attack errChloe Monson+3.2
2411-13NM STSAMHOUServe errNew Mexico St.+2.5
2512-13SAMHOUNM STKillMia Foxset Paige Nelson+2.4
2612-14NM STSAMHOUServe errNew Mexico St.+2.6
2713-14SAMHOUNM STBlockedChloe Monsonblk New Mexico St, Jaelynn Kohli, Mia Fox+2.5
2813-15NM STSAMHOUKillAnnika Brooksset Brenlin Garlitz+2.7
2913-16SAMHOUSAMHOUAceSam Houstonaced Bella Castro+3.5
3014-16SAMHOUNM STServe errSam Houston+2.1
3114-17NM STSAMHOU×4KillRachelle Reedset Lauren Pyle+2.6
3214-18SAMHOUSAMHOU×4KillFaith Roulstonset Lauren Pyle+2.9
3314-19SAMHOUSAMHOU×4Attack errTess Fuqua+2.2
3414-20SAMHOUSAMHOU×4BlockedKatrina Catalanblk Rachelle Reed, Ashley Herman+1.4
3515-20SAMHOUNM STKillTess Fuquaset Katrina Catalan+0.6
3616-20NM STNM STAceNew Mexico St.aced Bella Wood+1.3
3716-21NM STSAMHOUAttack errKate Sinclairset Katrina Catalan+1.4
3816-22SAMHOUSAMHOUKillBella Woodset Lauren Pyle+1.1
3917-22SAMHOUNM STKillMaggie Lightheart+0.3
4017-23NM STSAMHOUKillChelsea Butlerset Lauren Pyle+0.6
4118-23SAMHOUNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Makayla Martinez+0.2
4218-24NM STSAMHOUKillChelsea Butlerset Brenlin Garlitz+0.4
4319-24SAMHOUNM STServe errSam Houston+0.1
4419-25NM STSAMHOUKillChelsea Butlerset Brenlin Garlitz+0.2
Set 3
11-0SAMHOUNM STServe errSam Houston+2.4
21-1NM STSAMHOUServe errNew Mexico St.+2.4
32-1SAMHOUNM STKillAshley Hermanset Paige Nelson+2.5
43-1NM STNM STAceNew Mexico St.aced Chloe Monson+3.5
53-2NM STSAMHOUKillAnnika Brooksset Brenlin Garlitz+2.4
63-3SAMHOUSAMHOUKillChloe Monson+3.5
74-3SAMHOUNM STKillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+2.6
85-3NM STNM STAttack errChloe Monson+3.7
95-4NM STSAMHOUAttack errKate Sinclairset Katrina Catalan+2.5
106-4SAMHOUNM STKillKate Sinclairset Katrina Catalan+2.7
117-4NM STNM STAttack errLauren Pyle+3.7
127-5NM STSAMHOUBad setKate Sinclair+2.4
138-5SAMHOUNM STKillKate Sinclairset Katrina Catalan+2.7
149-5NM STNM STAttack errLauren Pyle+3.5
159-6NM STSAMHOUServe errNew Mexico St.+2.2
1610-6SAMHOUNM STKillAshley Hermanset Katrina Catalan+2.6
1711-6NM STNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Paige Nelson+3.2
1811-7NM STSAMHOU×3Serve errNew Mexico St.+1.9
1911-8SAMHOUSAMHOU×3KillKameron Rectorset Chloe Monson+3.1
2011-9SAMHOUSAMHOU×3AceSam Houstonaced Makayla Martinez+3.6
2112-9SAMHOUNM STServe errSam Houston+3.0
2212-10NM STSAMHOUServe errNew Mexico St.+2.6
2313-10SAMHOUNM STAttack errChloe Monsonset Shaelin White+3.1
2413-11NM STSAMHOUServe errNew Mexico St.+2.7
2513-12SAMHOUSAMHOUAttack errTess Fuqua+4.3
2614-12SAMHOUNM STKillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+3.5
2714-13NM STSAMHOUKillAnnika Brooksset Brenlin Garlitz+3.2
2815-13SAMHOUNM ST×5KillTess Fuquaset Katrina Catalan+3.6
2916-13NM STNM ST×5Attack errChloe Monson+4.8
3017-13NM STNM ST×5AceNew Mexico St.aced Kameron Rector+4.2
3118-13NM STNM ST×5AceNew Mexico St.aced Shaelin White+3.3
3219-13NM STNM ST×5KillJaelynn Kohliset Katrina Catalan+2.4
3319-14NM STSAMHOUAttack errMaggie Lightheartset Kate Sinclair+1.0
3420-14SAMHOUNM STKillJaelynn Kohliset Katrina Catalan+1.6
3520-15NM STSAMHOUKillRachelle Reed+0.9
3621-15SAMHOUNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+1.5
3721-16NM STSAMHOUKillKameron Rectorset Shaelin White+0.7
3821-17SAMHOUSAMHOUAttack errMaggie Lightheart+1.7
3922-17SAMHOUNM ST×4KillMaggie Lightheartset Paige Nelson+2.0
4023-17NM STNM ST×4KillAshley Hermanset Paige Nelson+1.4
4124-17NM STNM ST×4BlockedKameron Rectorblk Mia Fox, Ashley Herman+0.5
4225-17NM STNM ST×4BlockedAnnika Brooksblk Mia Fox, Tess Fuqua+0.1
Set 4
10-1NM STSAMHOUKillChelsea Butlerset Brenlin Garlitz+2.5
21-1SAMHOUNM STKillAshley Hermanset Paige Nelson+2.6
31-2NM STSAMHOUServe errNew Mexico St.+2.6
41-3SAMHOUSAMHOUBlockedMia Foxblk Annika Brooks, Rachelle Reed+3.6
52-3SAMHOUNM STKillTess Fuquaset Paige Nelson+2.5
62-4NM STSAMHOUKillChloe Monsonset Brenlin Garlitz+2.6
72-5SAMHOUSAMHOUAceSam Houston+3.4
83-5SAMHOUNM ST×4KillJaelynn Kohliset Paige Nelson+2.3
94-5NM STNM ST×4AceNew Mexico St.aced Bella Wood+3.6
105-5NM STNM ST×4BlockedChloe Monsonblk Jaelynn Kohli, Kate Sinclair+3.9
116-5NM STNM ST×4AceNew Mexico St.aced Bella Wood+4.2
126-6NM STSAMHOU×4KillChloe Monsonset Shaelin White+2.9
136-7SAMHOUSAMHOU×4KillFaith Roulstonset Lauren Pyle+4.1
146-8SAMHOUSAMHOU×4Attack errJaelynn Kohli+4.0
156-9SAMHOUSAMHOU×4KillBella Woodset Lauren Pyle+3.7
167-9SAMHOUNM STKillKate Sinclairset Katrina Catalan+2.5
177-10NM STSAMHOU×5KillBella Woodset Lauren Pyle+2.7
187-11SAMHOUSAMHOU×5Attack errJaelynn Kohli+3.4
197-12SAMHOUSAMHOU×5Attack errKate Sinclair+2.9
207-13SAMHOUSAMHOU×5KillLauren Pyle+2.3
217-14SAMHOUSAMHOU×5KillFaith Roulston+1.7
228-14SAMHOUNM STKillKatie Funkset Katrina Catalan+0.9
238-15NM STSAMHOUKillChelsea Butlerset Lauren Pyle+1.2
249-15SAMHOUNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+0.8
259-16NM STSAMHOUKillBella Woodset Brenlin Garlitz+1.1
269-17SAMHOUSAMHOUKillChelsea Butler+1.0
2710-17SAMHOUNM STServe errSam Houston+0.4
2811-17NM STNM STAttack errChloe Monson+1.0
2911-18NM STSAMHOUKillChelsea Butlerset Brenlin Garlitz+1.0
3011-19SAMHOUSAMHOUBlockedSam Houstonblk Annika Brooks, Rachelle Reed+0.8
3112-19SAMHOUNM STKillAshley Hermanset Paige Nelson+0.3
3212-20NM STSAMHOU×5Serve errNew Mexico St.+0.5
3312-21SAMHOUSAMHOU×5BlockedJaelynn Kohliblk Faith Roulston, Rachelle Reed+0.3
3412-22SAMHOUSAMHOU×5KillFaith Roulstonset Lauren Pyle+0.1
3512-23SAMHOUSAMHOU×5KillRachelle Reedset Lauren Pyle·
3612-24SAMHOUSAMHOU×5KillFaith Roulstonset Lauren Pyle·
3713-24SAMHOUNM STServe errSam Houston·
3813-25NM STSAMHOUServe errNew Mexico St.+1.2
Set 5
11-0SAMHOUNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Paige Nelson+6.4
21-1NM STSAMHOUServe errNew Mexico St.+6.2
32-1SAMHOUNM STServe errSam Houston+6.6
43-1NM STNM STAceNew Mexico St.+9.4
53-2NM STSAMHOUKillChloe Monson+6.2
64-2SAMHOUNM ST×4KillMaggie Lightheartset Paige Nelson+7.0
75-2NM STNM ST×4KillTess Fuquaset Katrina Catalan+9.3
86-2NM STNM ST×4KillAshley Hermanset Katrina Catalan+8.2
97-2NM STNM ST×4AceNew Mexico St.+6.7
107-3NM STSAMHOUAttack errSadie Rossset Bella Wood+3.4
118-3SAMHOUNM STKillLilli Saldivarset Tess Fuqua+4.8
129-3NM STNM STBlockedFaith Roulstonblk Ashley Herman, Maggie Lightheart+4.8
139-4NM STSAMHOUKillChloe Monsonset Lauren Pyle+2.1
149-5SAMHOUSAMHOUAttack errAshley Herman+4.3
1510-5SAMHOUNM ST×3KillMaggie Lightheartset Katrina Catalan+4.6
1611-5NM STNM ST×3Attack errRachelle Reed+4.1
1712-5NM STNM ST×3BlockedFaith Roulstonblk Maggie Lightheart, Ashley Herman+2.1
1812-6NM STSAMHOUKillBella Woodset Lauren Pyle+0.6
1913-6SAMHOUNM STKillAshley Hermanset Katrina Catalan+1.1
2013-7NM STSAMHOUAttack errMaggie Lightheartset Paige Nelson+0.3
2114-7SAMHOUNM STKillMaggie Lightheartset Paige Nelson+0.7
2214-8NM STSAMHOUServe errNew Mexico St.+0.1
2315-8SAMHOUNM STKillJaelynn Kohliset Paige Nelson+0.3

Score shown after each rally, New Mexico St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).